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1、18.1,%,32.8,1.88,8.6,5.0,Co.Reg No:198700034EMICA(P):099/03/2012Singapore,Results ReviewBuy(unchanged)Share price:SGD2.48Target price:SGD2.60(unchanged)ONG Kian Linongkianlinmaybank-.sg(65)6432 1470Stock InformationDescription:Ascendas REIT is a property trust constitutedby a trust deed.It owns and
2、invests in a diverse income-producing portfolio comprising business parks(includingScience Park),light industrial,hi-tech industrial and logisticsproperties in Singapore.,16 January 2013Ascendas REITIndustrial Landlord-Best in class3Q-9M FY3/13 results inline.9MFY3/13 revenue at SGD430.5m,was75%of o
3、urs and 78%of consensus estimate.3QFY3/13 revenue atSGD145.2m,was 25%of ours and 26%of consensus estimate.9MFY3/13DPU at 10.68 SG-cts(+6.2%YoY)was 75%of ours and 76%of consensusestimates.3QFY3/13 DPU at 3.62 SG-cts(+2.5%QoQ,+4.0%YoY)was25%of ours and 26%of consensus estimates.Aggregate leverage inch
4、edup to 32.8%from 32.5%last quarter,following funding of committedinvestments.All-in-financing costs for 3QFY3/13 averaged 3.19%(2Q:3.15%)with an average term of debt of 3.9 years(2Q:4.2 years).Stable portfolio continues to deliver.Occupancy rate(same-store basis)for the portfolio and multi-tenanted
5、 buildings(MTB)remains flat QoQ at to96.6%and 93.4%respectively.3QFY3/13 weighted average lease to expirywas 3.8 years,with only 2.1%of income due for renewal for the remainingFY3/13.Positive rental reversion on renewal range between 5.5%-25.3%throughout all segments of the portfolio boosting QoQ NP
6、I margin(from,Ticker:Shares Issued(m):Market Cap(USD m):3-mth Avg Daily Turnover(USD m):ST Index:Free float(%):Major Shareholders:Ascendas Funds Mgmt LtdKey IndicatorsROE annualised(%)Debt-to-deposited assets(%):NAV/shr(SGD):Interest cover(x):Historical Chart,AREIT SP2,238.94,533.811.73,196.0777,71.
7、8%to 72.1%)and yields(from 6.6%to 6.7%).YTD rental reversion of13.9%was achieved for the portfolio.Business Park exposure not fatal.AREITs business/science parkportfolio constitutes 38%of our FY3/14 GAV and gross revenue.We areheartened that A-REIT has secured commitment for about 31%of thelettable
8、space(complete in 3Q12,223k sqft)at Nexusone-north lastquarter,despite the onslaught of 7m sqft of new known supply in 2012-2015.We noted that the majority of this supply(81%)is in the centralregion(One North and Mapletree Business City),where AREIT has ten outof 23 existing properties.According to
9、our estimates,the central regionassets comprises 40%of AREITs business park revenue and NLA.Predominantly,AREITs business park portfolio(60%)is still concentratedin the east and west region,namely the International Business Park(IBP)and Changi Business Park(CBP).At 94%occupancy for business parkwith
10、 mostly MNC tenants,we think AREIT stands in good stead to weatherthe impending supply.New Asset Enhancement Initiative.AREIT has also initiatedenhancement work at 31 International Business Park,at a cost ofSGD13.2m,to take advantage of prospective future demand in the area.The AEI will complete by
11、3Q13.We raise our FY3/13-3/15 DPU by 0-0.34%in view of the enhancement.We continue to like A-REIT for its stable DPUyield,healthy lease expiry(25%of income expiring per annum)and debtmaturity profile.Reiterate BUY with an unchanged DDM-derived TP ofSGD2.60.Ascendas REIT Summary Earnings Table,FYE Ma
12、r(SGD m),FY3/2011A FY3/2012A FY3/2013F FY3/2014F,FY3/2015F,Performance:52-week High/Low1-mthAbsolute(%)3.3Relative(%)2.4,SGD2.51/SGD1.8453-mth 6-mth 1-yr-0.8 14.8 24.6-5.5 7.6 8.8,YTD4.63.7,RevenueNet property incomeDistributable incomeDPU(cents)DPU yield(%)P/BV(x)Gearing(%)(Debt todeposited assets)
13、ROE(%),447.6339.4248.013.25.31.335.117.6,503.3368.3281.713.65.51.337.612.6,572.0415.3321.214.45.81.434.58.6,592.5429.6324.614.55.81.435.18.7,617.0447.8327.814.65.91.435.68.7,Source:Company,Maybank KE estimatesSEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,Ascendas REITIndustrial
14、 Cooling Measures.Effective on 12 Jan 2013,thegovernment has introduced the Sellers Stamp Duty(SSD)to theindustrial property segment to curb speculative activity.The rationalebeing that prices of industrial properties have doubled over the lastthree years.Industrial properties and land bought and so
15、ld within threeyears will henceforth incur SSDs starting from 15%if sold within the firstyear(stepped down at 5%for each subsequent passing year).We alsonoted that the SSD may be remitted for developers sale of theindustrial properties developed by them.As such we think the impact onindustrial landl
16、ords will be minimal because of the following:The policy intent is targeted at speculators and not long-term ownersof industrial assets.It is also unlikely that Industrial REITs will need todivest properties held for less than three years(since majority of assetsshould be income-producing real estat
17、e).Since developers are remitted from SSD,this will not impactsponsors injection into the REIT or acquisitions from third-partydevelopers.Speculative activity will be restrained moving forward.Nonetheless,we do not think that capital values for industrial assets will be impactedby more than 5%in 201
18、3,given underlying genuine demand fromindustrialists(barring a macroeconomic downturn).As of 3Q12,the industrial price index has risen by 103%vis-visthree years ago.Nonetheless,the industrial rental index is only up 39%.We do not think that rentals(which affect DPU for S-REITs)will beaffected materi
19、ally,taking into account that leasing activity amongstMNCs and SMEs remains strong,and this should provide price supportfor rentals.,Figure 1:,Sellers Stamp Duty on Industrial Properties,Source:IRAS,16 January 2013,Page 2 of 14,1990Q1,1990Q2,1990Q3,1990Q4,1991Q1,1991Q2,1991Q3,1991Q4,1992Q1,1992Q2,19
20、92Q3,1992Q4,1993Q1,1993Q2,1993Q3,1993Q4,1994Q1,1994Q2,1994Q3,1994Q4,1995Q1,1995Q2,1995Q3,1995Q4,1996Q1,1996Q2,1996Q3,1996Q4,1997Q1,1997Q2,1997Q3,1997Q4,1998Q1,1998Q2,1998Q3,1998Q4,1999Q1,1999Q2,1999Q3,1999Q4,2000Q1,2000Q2,2000Q3,2000Q4,2001Q1,2001Q2,2001Q3,2001Q4,2002Q1,2002Q2,2002Q3,2002Q4,2003Q1,2
21、003Q2,2003Q3,2003Q4,2004Q1,2004Q2,2004Q3,2004Q4,2005Q1,2005Q2,2005Q3,2005Q4,2006Q1,2006Q2,2006Q3,2006Q4,2007Q1,2007Q2,2007Q3,2007Q4,2008Q1,2008Q2,2008Q3,2008Q4,2009Q1,2009Q2,2009Q3,2009Q4,2010Q1,2010Q2,2010Q3,2010Q4,2011Q1,2011Q2,2011Q3,2011Q4,2012Q1,2012Q2,2012Q3,1990Q1,1990Q2,1990Q3,1990Q4,1991Q1,
22、1991Q2,1991Q3,1991Q4,1992Q1,1992Q2,1992Q3,1992Q4,1993Q1,1993Q2,1993Q3,1993Q4,1994Q1,1994Q2,1994Q3,1994Q4,1995Q1,1995Q2,1995Q3,1995Q4,1996Q1,1996Q2,1996Q3,1996Q4,1997Q1,1997Q2,1997Q3,1997Q4,1998Q1,1998Q2,1998Q3,1998Q4,1999Q1,1999Q2,1999Q3,1999Q4,2000Q1,2000Q2,2000Q3,2000Q4,2001Q1,2001Q2,2001Q3,2001Q4
23、,2002Q1,2002Q2,2002Q3,2002Q4,2003Q1,2003Q2,2003Q3,2003Q4,2004Q1,2004Q2,2004Q3,2004Q4,2005Q1,2005Q2,2005Q3,2005Q4,2006Q1,2006Q2,2006Q3,2006Q4,2007Q1,2007Q2,2007Q3,2007Q4,2008Q1,2008Q2,2008Q3,2008Q4,2009Q1,2009Q2,2009Q3,2009Q4,2010Q1,2010Q2,2010Q3,2010Q4,2011Q1,2011Q2,2011Q3,2011Q4,2012Q1,2012Q2,2012Q
24、3,200,190,180,160,150,140,Ascendas REIT,Figure 2:,Industrial PPI has appreciated by 103%since 3Q09,Industrial Price Index(#1),Warehouse Price Index,Multiple-User Factory Price Index,URA Property Price Index(4Q98=100)17016015014013012011010090,80706050403020100Source:URA,(4Q98=100),Figure 3:,while In
25、dustrial PRI has only appreciated by 39%,Industrial Rental Index(#1),Warehouse Rental Index,Multiple-user Factory Rental Index,URA Property Rental Index(4Q98=100)1301201101009080,16 January 2013,706050403020100Source:URA,(4Q98=100),Page 3 of 14,Ascendas REITFigure 4:3Q&9M FY3/13 Results summary,3QFY
26、3/12,2QFY3/13 3QFY3/13%QoQ%YoY 9M11 9M12%Change FY3/13%of FY3/13,Gross RevenueOperating ExpensesNPI,127.3-33.493.9,143.3-40.4102.9,145.2-40.5104.7,1%0%2%,14%368.9 430.521%-95.7-121.811%273.2 308.7,17%27%13%,571.4-156.6414.8,75%78%74%,Other Income,0.0,0.0,0.0,nm,nm,0.0,0.0,nm,0.0,nm,Managers Fees,-7.
27、4,-8.3,-8.4,1%,13%-21.3,-24.9,17%,-31.7,79%,Trustee fees,-1.2,-1.4,-1.0,-24%,-14%,-3.9,-3.9,-1%,-6.4,60%,Other Expenses,1.5,3.3,31.2 857%1959%-14.8,22.2,nm,-40.0,nm,Net income before financing cost&tax,86.8,96.5,126.4,31%,46%233.2 302.1,30%,336.8,90%,Interest Income,4.5,7.3,8.6,18%,94%,17.9,20.9,17%
28、,21.4,98%,Borrowing Costs,-15.3,-42.0,-18.3,-56%,20%-46.8,-85.1,82%,-87.3,97%,EBT,75.9,61.8,116.7,89%,54%204.2 237.9,16%,270.8,88%,Gain of divestment of investment propertiesGains from revaluation,0.02.1,0.00.0,0.00.0,nmnm,nmnm,0.02.1,0.00.0,nmnm,8.061.7,nmnm,Gains from derivatives,5.7,-3.7,-38.6 93
29、3%,nm,17.0,-24.6,nm,0.0,nm,Total return before tax,83.7,58.1,78.2,35%,-7%223.3 213.2,-5%,340.5,63%,Tax,-0.4,1.9,-0.2,nm,-46%,-0.8,1.2,nm,-1.6,nm,Total Return(Reported)Total Return(ex exceptionals)Total Return to Unitholders,83.375.583.3,59.963.759.9,77.9116.577.9,30%83%30%,-6%222.5 214.454%203.4 239
30、.0-6%222.5 214.4,-4%18%-4%,338.9277.2338.9,63%86%63%,Add-back:Non Tax Deductibles,-9.7,19.1,3.2,-83%,nm-14.5,21.3,nm,21.7,98%,Deduct:Net change on revaluation of investment properties,-2.1,0.0,0.0,nm,nm,-2.1,0.0,nm,-61.7,nm,Income available for distribution,71.5,79.1,81.1,3%,13%205.9 235.7,15%,298.9
31、,79%,Distribution from Capital,1.0,0.0,0.0,nm,nm,3.0,1.0,-67%,0.0,nm,Distributable income,72.5,79.1,81.1,2.6%11.9%208.9 236.7,13.3%,320.7,74%,#of units(End of period)DPU(cents),2,0853.48,2,2383.53,2,2393.62,0.1%2.5%,7.4%2,085 2,2394.0%10.06 10.68,7%6.2%,2,23814.33,100%75%,Source:Company,Maybank KE e
32、stimates,Figure 5:,A-REITs strong capital management,3QFY3/13,2QFY3/13,1QFY3/13,4QFY3/12,3QFY3/12,2QFY3/12,1QFY3/12,4QFY3/11,3QFY3/11,Aggregate Leverage RatioTotal Debt Outstanding(S$m)Average Alll-in Financing CostInterest Cover RatioWeighted Avg term to expiryUnencumbered properties(%of properties
33、)Fixed as%of total debt,32.8%21923.19%5.03.90 yrs59.5%67.2%,32.5%21563.15%4.94.20 yrs58.4%68.4%,32.7%21663.17%4.94.40 yrs58.5%68.9%,36.6%24012.83%5.33.50 yrs58.6%55.8%,34.3%20653.00%5.53.10 yrs57.0%64.9%,31.5%18053.11%5.33.40 yrs56.3%75.9%,28.7%1568.53.61%5.33.50 yrs55.3%87.8%,35.2%19003.46%4.53.20
34、yrs55.3%71.3%,34.7%17093.84%4.63.10 yrs52.7%100.0%,Source:Company,16 January 2013,Page 4 of 14,Ascendas REITFigure 6:Impending Business Park Supply(2012-2015),Expected Year of Completion,Location,GFA(000 sqft),Region,%Pre-committed(est),20122012TOTAL(2012)201320132013201320132013TOTAL(2013)201420142
35、014TOTAL(2014)201520152015TOTAL(2015)GRAND TOTAL(2012-2015),Changi Business ParkMediapolis(one-north)Nepal Hill(one-north)Mediapolis(one-north)Science ParkBiopolis(one-north)Changi Business ParkFushionpolis(Nexusone-north)CleanTech ParkBiopolis(one-north)FushionpolisMediapolis(one-north)Fusionpolis(
36、one-north)Mapletree Business City Phase 2,766 EAST220 CENTRAL98699 CENTRAL233 CENTRAL849 CENTRAL490 CENTRAL340 EAST269 CENTRAL2,181242 WEST332 CENTRAL726 CENTRAL1,300730 CENTRAL959 CENTRAL1,000 CENTRAL2,6907,157,64%62%64%100%100%100%0%100%31%74%40%100%0%33%100%100%0%63%59%,Source:Company,MBKE estima
37、tesFigure 7:81%of upcoming Business Park supply concentrated in CentralRegionBusiness Park Supply,(2012-2015)(000 sqft)2012201320142015TOTALProportion,Central2201,9401,0582,6905,90881%,East766340001,10615%,West0024202423%,Islandwide9862,2801,3002,6907,256100%,Source:Company,MBKE estimates,16 January
38、 2013,Page 5 of 14,#,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,9,6,0,0,DPU,Ascendas REITFigure 8:AREIT has ten out of 23 Business/Science Park in the Central Region,AREITs Business Park(SG)GFA(sqft)NLA(sqft),Region FY3/12 Revenue Proportion,Type:,The AlphaThe AriesThe CapricornThe GeminiHoneywell BuildingTeleparkTechquesti
39、Quest IBPHansapoint CBP,307,126158,176307,869351,215195,074436,53085,250130,706209,336,233,081144,871233,135299,689158,025265,16970,45098,231183,621,CENTRALCENTRALCENTRALCENTRALEASTEASTWESTWESTEAST,10.75.110.810.75.518.31.72.89.5,6%3%6%6%3%11%1%2%5%,Multi-tenantsMulti-tenantsMulti-tenantsMulti-tenan
40、tsMulti-tenantsMulti-tenantsMulti-tenantsMulti-tenantsMulti-tenants,1011,Acer BuildingRutherford&Science Hub,314,144282,908,242,952231,198,WESTCENTRAL,5%3%,Multi-tenantsMulti-tenants,121314151617181920212223,1,3&5 Changi Business Park CrescentUltro Building(Under AEI)PSB Science Park Building13 Inte
41、rnational Business Park31 International Business ParkDBS Asia HubNeuros&ImmunosNordic European Centre3 Changi Business Park VistaCintech ICintech IICintech III&IV,803,622123,247344,585108,888664,348417,359397,522305,458197,927160,845145,872275,793,676,371109,006233,45877,113541,273345,564305,103237,
42、516164,268113,35585,196200,133,EASTEASTCENTRALWESTWESTEASTCENTRALWESTEASTCENTRALCENTRALCENTRAL,23.42.33.71.614.71018.56.82.80.1,13%1%2%1%8%6%11%4%2%0%0%0%,Multi-tenantsSingle-tenantSingle-tenantMulti-tenantsMulti-tenantsSingle-tenantMulti-tenantsMulti-tenantsMulti-tenantsMulti-tenantsMulti-tenantsMu
43、lti-tenants,TOTAL,6,723,799,5,248,779,174.0,100%,Source:CompanyFigure 9:Geographic breakdown of AREITs business park portfolio,Business Park,GFA(sqft)Proportion,NLA(sqft),Proportion FY3/12 Revenue Proportion,CentralEastWestTOTAL,2,731,9102,383,0951,608,7946,723,799,41%35%24%100%,2,079,2201,902,0241,
44、267,5355,248,779,40%36%24%100%,667237174,38%41%21%100%,Source:CompanyFigure 10:Summary of DPU changesFY3/11A FY3/12A FY3/13F FY3/14F FY3/15F FY3/16F CAGR FY11-15F,DPU-newGrowth%DPU-old,13.23,13.562.5%,14.355.8%14.34,14.490.9%14.44,14.610.9%14.56,15.042.9%14.99,2.63%2.54%,Difference,0.07%,0.31%,0.34%
45、,0.34%,Source:Company,Maybank KE,Figure 11:,DDM-derived target price,DDM,FY3/13,FY3/14,FY3/15,FY3/16 Terminal Value,DPU(SG cts):,14.35,14.49,14.61,15.04,256.89,16 January 2013,Fair Value:Assumptions:Risk-free rate:Beta:Cost of Equity:Source:Maybank KE,2.601.35%0.625.1%,Page 6 of 14,Logistics&,3%,Asc
46、endas REITFigure 12:Breakdown of FY3/14 GAV,WarehouseDistribution:Retail Facilities20%,Biz/ScienceParks:38%,Light,c,Industrial/Flatted Factories:16%Hi-TechIndustrial/DataCentres:23%Source:Maybank KEFigure 13:On-going InvestmentsSource:CompanyFigure 14:AEI for 31 International Business ParkSource:Com
47、pany,16 January 2013,Page 7 of 14,Ascendas REITFigure 15:Weighted avg.lease expiry(WALE)of 3.8 years(as at 31 Dec 2012)Source:CompanyFigure 16:Segmental Rental PerformanceSource:Company,16 January 2013,Page 8 of 14,Ascendas REITFigure 17:Debt maturity profile(m)with weighted avg.term of debt of 3.9
48、yrs.Total debt at SGD2.192bn.Source:Company,16 January 2013,Page 9 of 14,Ascendas REIT,PROFIT AND LOSS(SGD m),BALANCE SHEET(SGD m),FYE MarGross RevenueProperty expensesNet Property IncomeFinance incomePerformance feesManagement feesTrust expensesFinance expenseNet income b/f tax&change in FVChange i
49、n FV of Inv PtyOthersIncome taxTotal returnNon-tax deductibles&oer adjDistributable incomeDPU(SGD cts)CASH FLOW(SGD m)FYE MarOperating cash flowsTotal return before taxAdjustments forNet interest expenseDepreciationMgt fees in unitsOthersTrade and other receivablesTrade and other payablesIncome tax
50、paidInvesting cash flowsPPECapex on Inv Pty&othersPurchase of PtyProperties under developmentOthersFinancing cash flowsEquity net proceedsBorrowing costsNet borrowing proceedsDistribution to unitholdersOthersNet change in cashBeginning cash balanceForexEnding cash balanceFree cash flow,FY3/2011 FY3/
