《THESHALEREVOLUTION1214.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《THESHALEREVOLUTION1214.ppt（167页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、,13 December 2012Securities Research&Analyticshttp:/www.credit-Shale RevolutionConnections SeriesThe Credit Suisse Connections Seriesleverages our exceptional breadth of macroand micro research to deliver incisive cross-asset and cross-border thematic insights forour clients.SECURITIES RESEARCH&ANAL
2、YTICSPlease refer to each section of this reportfor the specific contributors to that sectionSource:Credit Suisse The early impact of the shale revolution may now be well understood.Withthe evolution of hydraulic fracturing,extracting unconventional gas first becameeconomical in the late 1990s,with
3、the US leading the innovation.Less understood are the global implications of the unconventional shaleboom.Several countries,China the most notable,hold significant shalepotential,but most are still years away from the time,technology and policyneeded to unlock shales potential.We explore the countri
4、es and regions thatcould reap shales returns in coming years.Considerable reverberations exist throughout the supply chain.From theinfrastructure build needed to foster the movement to chemical companies forwhich natural gas is a key input,the implications of the shale revolution aregreat and deeply
5、 explored in this report.This report leverages the expertise of over 40 research strategists andanalysts and paints a clear geographic and sector picture of the shalephenomenon,uncovering significant investment opportunities globally.DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS
6、 OF NON-US ANALYSTS.FOROTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,visithttp:/or call+1(877)291-2683 for Credit Suisse Equity Research disclosures and visit https:/firesearchdisclosure.credit-or call+1(212)538-7625 for Credit Suisse Fixed Income Research disclosures.U.S.Disclosure:Credit Suisse does and seeks to do
7、 business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.,CREDIT SUIS
8、SE SECURITIES RESEARCH&ANALYTICS,BEYOND INFORMATIONClient-Driven Solutions,Insights,and Access,2,13 December 2012,Introduction,The Shale Revolution,The global unconventional shale boom is arguably one of the biggest technologybreakthroughs in decades.What started in a field in Texas has turned into
9、a worldwidephenomenon,with ramifications spreading across a wide range of countries,commoditiesand industries.The high cost of energy is once again stimulating the search for newenergy supplies,alternative fuels and efficiency gains,with technology as always at theforeground of new developments.,Alt
10、hough the full impact of this“game-changing”revolution is yet to fully play out,it is clear,that significant effects are already under way.In this report,we explore the highlyinterrelated nature of the global energy system and,leveraging the work of more than fortyanalysts,the increasing impact of t
11、his revolution.,We draw conclusions about the likely spillovers from the shale revolution to other energymarkets,countries and energy-intensive industries.There are fundamental messages forrelative price shifts in commodities,relative competitiveness regionally,relative industrycost curves and poten
12、tial technological innovation.We also consider the impact of therequired capital spending on infrastructure.,Of course,politics as well as economics come into play particularly given the perceived,links to energy security or independence,though we question some of the acceptedwisdom on the latter wh
13、ere the US is concerned,namely that of the US becoming the,“new Middle East of oil”or at least“not dependent anymore on the Middle East for itsenergy needs.”We believe that there are many geopolitical reasons why the US will,remain closely engaged with the Middle East,not least because many of its t
14、radingpartners remain dependent on energy from the region.,The potential for shale gas beyond North America is a key question.Indeed,resourcesexist in Europe,Latin America,Asia and Australasia,though various constraints suggestthat the most optimistic production targets may not be fulfilled.We parti
15、cularly focus on therole and strategy of China,possessing twice the recoverable resources of the US andfacing energy security as a crucial concern.,What of the price of the more conventional sources of energy?The impact on coalmarkets already has been significant as power generation has shifted from
16、 coal to gas.Although this trend may abate in the near term,the structural direction is likely to remain,downward eventually dethroning“King Coal.”As for oil,the high prices seen for most of,the past five years probably have to continue for a while to attract the investment neededto bring on supply.
17、But,ultimately,looking to the latter part of this decade and beyond,webelieve that high prices will be the primary cure for high prices.The shale revolutionseems set to play a crucial role in that process,providing a major new energy source tofacilitate global economic development.,Stefano Natella,c
18、o-head of Global Securities Research,Eric Miller,co-head of Global Securities Research,The Shale Revolution,2,4,5,6,11,12,32,44,50,62,119,3,13 December 2012Table of ContentsIntroductionCredit Suisse Securities Research&AnalyticsFocus ChartsExecutive SummaryThe US Shale Gas RevolutionUnconventional G
19、as Supply in the US,The Shale Revolution,Economic ImpactGlobal Impact:China Shale=Security of SupplyImpact Across CommoditiesOils Shale Shake-UpCoal The Biggest Loser?Equity ResearchSector Implications and Stock RecommendationsNorth America EnergyInfrastructureUtilitiesClean TechnologiesSteel and Mi
20、ningMaterialsCapital Goods and EngineeringStocks Exposed to the Shale ThemeImpact on Global Gas MarketsCarbonAppendicesModels and ForecastsImpact on Broader Energy Use?Impact on Future Energy Use?,2545616369818894104112122146152153156163,TheShaleRevolution,13December2012,4,Credit Suisse Securities R
21、esearch&AnalyticsGlobal Credit Suisse analysts contributing to this report,Commodities ResearchRic DeverellMarcus GarveyStefan RevielleAndrew Shaw,Telephone+44 20 7883 2523+44 20 7883 4787+1 212 538 6802+65 6212 4244,Emailric.deverellcredit-marcus.garveycredit-stefan.reviellecredit-andrew.shawcredit
22、-,Thematic ResearchMary CurtisKiranjot GrewalRichard KersleyMujtaba Rana,Telephone+27 11 012 80 68+44 20 7883 9247+44 20 7888 0313+44 20 7883 3773,Emailmary.curtiscredit-kiranjot.grewalcredit-richard.kersleycredit-mujtaba.ranacredit-,Jan Stuart,+1 212 325 1013,jan.stuartcredit-,Economic ResearchJay
23、FeldmanNeal Soss,Telephone+1 212 325 7634+1 212 325 3335,Emailjay.feldmancredit-neal.sosscredit-,Global Product MarketingKatie IorioArbin Sherchan,Telephone+1 212 538 6386+1 212 325 8967,Emailkatheryn.ioriocredit-arbin.sherchancredit-,Equity ResearchEurope,Alex Brooks,+44 20 7883 0102,alex.brookscre
24、dit-,Australia,Chris CounihanArndt Ellinghorst,+44 20 7883 7618+44 20 7888 0295,chris.counihancredit-arndt.ellinghorstcredit-,Paul McTaggartJames Redfern,+61 2 8205 4698+61 2 8205 4779,paul.mctaggartcredit-james.redferncredit-,Charlotte Elliot,+44 20 7888 9484,charlotte.elliottcredit-,Vincent Gilles
25、,+44 20 7888 1926,vincent.gillescredit-,Brazil,Lars KjellbergAndre Kukhnin,+46 8 545 07 926+44 20 7888 0350,lars.kjellbergcredit-andre.kukhnincredit-,Emerson LeiteAndre Sobreira,+55 11 3841 6290+55 11 3701 6299,emerson.leitecredit-andre.sobreiracredit-,Michael Shillaker,+44 20 7888 1344,michael.shil
26、lakercredit-,Canada,USA,Brian Dutton,+1 416 352 4596,brian.duttoncredit-,Kevin ColeJohn EdwardsDan EggersRichard Garchitorena,+1 212 538 8422+1 713 890 1594+1 212 538 8430+1 212 325 5809,kevin.colecredit-john.edwardscredit-dan.eggerscredit-richard.garchitorenacredit-,Jason FrewAndrew KuskeDavid Phun
27、gPaul Tan,+1 403 476 6022+1 416 352 4561+1 403 476 6023+1 416 352 4593,jason.frewcredit-andrew.kuskecredit-david.phungcredit-paul.tancredit-,Arun Jayaram,+1 212 538 8428,arun.jayaramcredit-,Patrick Jobin,+1 212 325 0843,patrick.jobincredit-,China,Mark Lear,+1 212 538 0239,mark.learcredit-,Horace Tse
28、,+852 2101 7379,horace.tsecredit-,John McNulty,+1 212 325 4385,john.mcnultycredit-,Julian Mitchell,+1 212 325 6668,julian.mitchellcredit-,Singapore,Edward Westlake,+1 212 325 6751,edward.westlakecredit-,David Hewitt,+65 6212 3064,david.hewittcredit-,James WicklundSource:Credit Suisse,+1 214 979 4111
29、,james.wicklundcredit-,IndustryCapex($MM),-,360,5,13 December 2012Focus ChartsExhibit 1:Shale production growth in the US has,been nothing short of extraordinaryBcm/y250200150,2 Years for next104 Bcm/y,Exhibit 2:Gas expectations are high in the USEIA projections for unconventional gas supply,Tcf,100
30、500,2 Years to Next 52 Bcm/y18 Years to 52 Bcm/y,Jan-80,Jan-84,Jan-88,Jan-92,Jan-96,Jan-00,Jan-04,Jan-08,Source:HPDI,Credit Suisse seExhibit 3:import needs are high abroad(i.e.,China)Without shale,China could be 50%dependent on imported gas by 2020Chinas import requirement(Bcm/year),Source:EIA,Credi
31、t SuisseExhibit 4:Coal has been the biggest loser in the USThe fall in nat gas prices drove coal to below 35%of the power generation mixUS electricity generation by source(%share of total,monthly),(bcm/year)45040035030025020015010050,60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%,Coal,Gas,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013
32、,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,15%10%,Conventional Gas,CBM,Import requirement,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:Credit SuisseExhibit 5:And there is some room for furtherswitching abroadInstalled generating capacityGW,Source:Credit Suisse,US EIAExhibit 6:A substantial cape
33、x opportunity exists inthe US(upstream capex),$150bn pa$150bn pa of capex can be sustained through 2030,10003303002702402101801501209060300,467USA,W.Europe,707China,GasIndia,CoalJapan,S.Korea,Taiwan,180,000160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,00002012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
34、 2019E 2020EBase Capex Gulf of Mexico Deepwater CapexUnconventional Oil Capex Unconventional Gas Capex,Source:Credit Suisse,EIA,CEIC,CEA,Eurostat,Taiwan BoE,Japan FEP,Source:Credit Suisse,US EIA,The Shale,Revolution,6,13 December 2012Executive Summary,EQUITY RESEARCHRichard Kersley+44 20 7888 0313ri
35、chard.kersleycredit-FIXED INCOME RESEARCHRic Deverell+44 20 7883 2523ric.deverellcredit-GLOBAL PRODUCT MARKETINGKatie Iorio+1 212 538 6386katheryn.ioriocredit-,The shale revolutionThe United States unconventional shale boom is arguably one of the biggest technologybreakthroughs in decades.What start
36、ed in a field in Texas has turned into a worldwidephenomenon,with ramifications spreading across various commodities and industries.Asspecific a phenomenon as this may seem,it is arguably reflective of the broad economicprinciple and historical experience that high prices kill high prices.The high c
37、ost ofenergy is once again stimulating the search for new energy supplies,alternative fuels andefficiency gains,with technology as always at the foreground of new developments.Although the impact of high prices is yet to fully play out across the energy space,it is clearthat significant changes are
38、already under way.In this report,we explore the highly interrelatednature of the global energy system and draw conclusions about the likely spillover impact fromthe shale revolution in the US to other energy markets,other countries and the relatedindustries to which the cost of energy and its associ
39、ated sources of supply is central.Exhibit 7:Real oil prices remain near historical highsLong run real prices,2010 US$,average price=0,1.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5,Crude Oil,Trend,1875,1895,1915,1935,1955,1975,1995,Source:the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL serviceThe following key findings emerge:The US gas revo
40、lution is ongoing as discoveries today are advancing at a faster ratethan production,suggesting that production has a long way to go before it peaks.Theshare of US gas production from shale increased from 5%in 2000 to 23%in2010;after incorporating tight gas and coal-bed methane(CBM),unconventionalpr
41、oduction accounted for nearly 60%of all production in 2010.The EIA expects thistrend to continue at its fervent pace,with 50%of production coming from shale by 2035and a total of 78%of production when accounting for other unconventional methods.See Unconventional Gas Supply in the US.The potential r
42、elated capital spending to support this structural story extendsacross the energy complex in the US.Investment in the US oil and gas sector hasgrown steadily to reach around USD 140 billion per year over the past couple of years.While accounting for only 1%of GDP,the sector has accounted for an outs
43、ized 10%oftotal business fixed asset investment and nearly one-fifth of growth in US investment overthat period.Oil and gas has also been punching well above its historical weight in industrialproduction,accounting for 9%of the total in the past year and for nearly 30%of total initialproduction grow
44、th over the past couple of years.We expect this high level of investment tocontinue for some time,as the industry continues to exploit the potential of the newtechnology.,The Shale,Revolution,1,2,3,7,13 December 2012 A structural competitive advantage exists.We expect the downward price pressure onn
45、atural gas prices(underpinned by the higher than previously expected domestic reservesand surge in US production)to be sustained for many years.1 While Henry Hub prices are likely to rise modestly from the historically low$3MMBtuseen on average this year,we do not expect them to move above$5/MMBtu(r
46、eal 2011US$)by 2020,despite strong demand and the possibility of exports.2 Moreover,we also expect US gas prices to remain depressed relative to international(oil-linked)gas prices for years to come.3 with US shale gas exports likely capped fornow.The high capital costs associated with developing LN
47、G projects limits theirdevelopment to major players,and this factor too is likely to play a role in preservingindustry and marketing structures for longer.This underlines an ongoing competitive advantage for the US in those industries wherenatural gas is a key feedstock and a potential driver of and
48、 incentive for related capitalspending.,Exhibit 8:US natural gas:Cheap historically.$/MMBtu$15,Exhibit 9:and likely to stay that wayBcm/y of mid-range forecast of new US gas demand250,Supply growth potential$5(2011 real)$13200$11,$9$7,150100,Supply growth potential$4.50(2011 real),$550$3,$1Oct-98,Oc
49、t-02,Oct-06,Oct-10,Oct-14,Oct-18,02012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,Last Price,Forecast,NGV,LNG,Power Sector,Source:Credit Suisse Securities Research,Source:Credit Suisse Can the“shale gas revolution”spill over to other countries?Yesbut not yet.This report analyzes the significance of sha
50、le gas region by region,in turn highlightingthe geological and technological challenges that do exist and may indeed be under-estimated by the more bullish forecasters.With twice the recoverable shale reserves ofthe US,the biggest potential is in China,The question is when?In our view,largeindustria
