《RAILCAR&PETROCHEMICALUPDATE：USCHEMICALSHIPMENTSDOWN1.2%.ETHANEPRICESFALL1C／GAL1120.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《RAILCAR&PETROCHEMICALUPDATE：USCHEMICALSHIPMENTSDOWN1.2%.ETHANEPRICESFALL1C／GAL1120.ppt（24页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、Top picks,Buy,Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsChemicals/Commodity,PeriodicalRailcar&PetroChemical,Date19 November 2012,UpdateDavid Begleiter,CFA,US chemical shipments down 1.2%.Ethane prices fall 1c/galRailcar loadings 4-week moving avg.down 1.2%,weekly loa
2、dings up 2.5%The 4-week moving average of chemical railcar loadings declined 1.2%inWeek#45(ended November 10)vs.a 1.6%decrease the prior week.LoadingYTD are down 1.1%.Chemical railcar loadings represent 23%of total USchemical shipment tonnage(followed by trucks,barges,and pipelines),offeringa measur
3、ement of broader chemical industry activity and demand trends.Themore volatile measure of weekly loadings increased 2.5%YoY(versus a 1.2%decline in the prior week)and increased 3.4%sequentially(vs.a 0.8%decreasein the prior week).Ethane prices fell 1c/gal last week to 29.5c/gal(down 63%YTD)Ethane pr
4、ices fell 1c/gal last week to 29.5c/gal while spot ethylene prices fell2c/lb to 53c/lb.With naphtha feedstock costs also rising 20%,the combinedeffect was to reduce spot ethylene margins by 2c/lb to 33c/lb.Polymer grade(PG)propylene spot prices for November fell to 53c-55c/gal.The PG contractprice f
5、or November rose 4c/lb to 57c/lb(vs a forecasted 5c/lb increase)owingto near-term supply shock.PG prices are expected to fall in December on,Research Analyst(+1)212 250-Ramanan SivalingamAssociate Analyst()212 250-Jermaine BrownResearch Associate(+1)212 250-3624jermaine-Ashland(ASH.N),USD68.27Lyonde
6、llBasell(LYB.N),USD46.87Eastman Chemical(EMN.N),USD55.69,improved supply and lower seasonal demand.ExxonMobils Baytown BOP-X facility(3.1%of NA capacity)remains down foran unplanned maintenance outage that is expected to last through the third,(GDP,Real YoY)USEuroland,20080.4%0.6%,2009-2.6%-4.1%,201
7、03.0%1.9%,2011 2012E 2013E1.8%2.2%2.0%1.4%-0.5%0.0%,week of November.The Flint Hills Port Arthur,TX ethylene facility(1.9%of NAcapacity)remains down for a maintenance outage that is expected to last untillate this month.We expect ethylene capacity outages to decrease sequentiallyin November(4.7%of N
8、A ethylene capacity offline),vs 6.9%offline inOctober,and decrease in December(1.0%of NA capacity offline).,JapanG7Asia ex-JapanChinaGlobal,-0.7%0.3%6.8%9.0%2.7%,-5.3%-3.5%5.7%9.1%-0.9%,4.1%2.9%9.4%10.3%5.1%,-0.7%1.9%0.6%1.4%1.3%1.3%7.3%6.1%6.7%9.2%7.7%8.2%3.6%2.9%3.2%,We expect ethane prices to mov
9、e modestly higher to 40c/gal in December,Source:DB Global Economics Team,and 43-45c/gal in January on higher propane prices,which we expect to riseon seasonal demand and Enterprise starting up its expanded export terminal.Weakened potash demand spilling over to phosphate.Unsettled potash contracts i
10、n China and India,coupled with above averageNorth American potash inventories(39%above the 5-year avg)are leadingbuyers to delay purchases to avoid price risk.This cautious sentiment is spillingover to phosphate as buyers are being thriftier with their purchases in spite oflow inventory levels.Given
11、 this weakened demand,Mosaic(MOS;Hold)lowered their 13 Q2 potash volumes to 1.3MM-1.4MM m.t(prior guidance:1.6MM-1.9MM m.t.)and phosphate volumes to 2.9MM-3.1MM m.t.(Priorguidance:3.0MM-3.4MM m.t.).We maintain our equal-weight stance on the sectorWithin in the chemicals sector,our top specialty chem
12、ical idea is Ashland(ASH,Buy,TP$85),our top differentiated chemical idea is Eastman Chemical(EMN,Buy,TP$70)and our top commodity chemical idea is LyondellBasell(LYB,Buy,TP$60)._All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom l
13、ocal exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
14、 objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,Apr-11,Apr-12,Aug-11,May-11,May-12,Aug-12,Feb-12,Feb-11,Mar-11,Mar-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Oct-12
15、,Nov-11,Dec-11,Nov-10,Dec-10,Sep-11,Sep-11,Aug-11,Aug-12,Sep-12,Nov-10,Dec-10,Nov-11,Dec-11,May-11,May-12,Nov-12,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Dec-11,Sep-11,Apr-12,Jan-12,Oct-11,Sep-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,May-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Oct-12,Jul-12,May-12,Aug-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-1
16、2,Jul-12,Nov-12,Sep-12,Jun-11,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jun-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jan-11,Jun-11,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-11,Feb-12,Mar-11,Mar-12,Oct-12,Jul-11,Jul-12,Jul-11,Jul-12,19 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateFigure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended November 10,2012
17、(Week#45),%YoY,%Sequential,4-week moving averagePrior weekWeek endedPrior weekYTD 2012,(1.2%)(1.6%)2.5%(1.2%)(1.05%),0.4%(1.0%)3.4%(0.8%),Source:Association of American Railroads and Deutsche BankFigure 2:U.S.Ethylene Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits,Weekly Avg.Cents/Pound,Change fro
18、m Last Week,Purity EthanePropaneCo-Prod.Int.Lt.NaphthaButaneLight NaphthaGas OilWeighted Avg.Source:IHS Chemical,12.918.450.342.158.267.120.2,(0.2)(1.5)8.62.16.90.60.4,Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North America)c/gallon1009080706050403020Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 5:US Ethylene Pipeline G
19、ulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb)7570,Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America)c/gallon170160150140130120110100908070Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 6:US Chemical Grade Propylene Gulf Coast FOBSpot Prices(c/lb)9080,657060,555045,605040,403035,30Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,20Source:Bloomberg Finance
20、 LP,Oct-11,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Sep-11,Apr-12,Aug-12,May-12,Sep-12,Jun-1997,Jun-1998,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jun-1995,Jun-1996,Jun-1999,Jun-2000,Jun-2001,Jun-2002,Jun-2003,Jun-2004,Jun-2005,Jun-2006,Jun-2007,Jun-2008,Jun-2009,Jun-2010,Jun-2011,Jun-2012,Oct-12,Jul-12,Figure 7:China Acetic Acid Sp
21、ot Prices(CNY/ton)450040003500300025002000Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Figure 8:US ethane-based ethylene production costs areadvantaged vs other regions(c/lb)65605550454035302520151050,Figure 9:US ethane supply has been increasing steadilysince 2005(000 of bpd)11001000900800700600500400,Western US Et
22、hane,US,US,US Light Northeast,West Southeast,Canada,Weighted Coprod Naphtha,Asia,Europe,Asia,Average,LightNaphtha,Naphtha Naphtha Naphtha,19 November 2012,Chemicals/Commodity,Railcar&PetroChemical Update,Table Of Contents,US Chemicals Railcar Data.6Key end market data.8,End Market:Agriculture.9End M
23、arket:US Construction.11End Market:US Automotive&Electronics.13,US macro indicators.14,US output indicators.14US financial market indicators.16,Overseas macro indicators.17Sector Valuation&Risks.18,Table of Exhibits,Figure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended October 13,2012(Week#41).2Figure
24、2:U.S.Ethylene Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits.2Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North America).2Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America).2Figure 5:US Ethylene Pipeline Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb).2Figure 6:US Chemical Grade Propylene Gulf Coast FOB Spot Price
25、s(c/lb).2Figure 7:China Acetic Acid Spot Prices(CNY/ton).3Figure 8:US ethane-based ethylene production costs are advantaged vs other regions(c/lb).3Figure 9:US ethane supply has been increasing steadily since 2005(000 of bpd).3Figure 11:Chemical distribution channels,by volume and cost.6Figure 12:Ch
26、emical and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY).6Figure 13:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(2009-Present).6Figure 14:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcar loadings(2009-Present).7Figure 15:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2009-Present).7Figure 16:Four-week moving average
27、of weekly railcar loadings,%YoY(2000-Present).7Figure 17:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(000s,2000-Present).7Figure 18:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets.8Figure 19:Corn stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970s.9Figure 20:US Corn a
28、nd Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres).9Figure 21:US Corn Yields(1970-2013E;bushels per acre).10Figure 22:US Soybean Yields(1970-2013E;bushels per acre).10Figure 23:Global Corn Consumption(MM tons).10Figure 24:Arable Land Per Capita.10Figure 25:Global Corn Yields by Country/Region(bu/acre;2011
29、).10Figure 26:Global Corn Acreage by Region(millions of acres;2011).10Figure 27:US construction data has stabilized since record lows in mid-09 and is beginningto show signs of improvement.11Figure 28:Private non-residential construction has surpassed public non-residential,construction.11Figure 29:
30、Household debt to asset ratio returning to trend levels.12Figure 30:Household Debt/GDP ratio also returning to trend levels.12Figure 31:Housing-related consumption remains well above homebuilder sentiment.12Figure 32:Housing starts appear to have bottomed and have ticked up in 2012.12Figure 33:North
31、 American auto builds.13Figure 34:North American printed circuit board book-to-bill ratio.13Figure 35:US Chemicals Shipments on Internal Waterways.14,Figure 36:Chemicals Railcar Loadings,Capacity Utilization,and Industrial Production.14Figure 37:Growth in railcar loadings is ahead of industrial prod
32、uction.15Figure 38:ECRI Leading Index vs.Industrial Production.15Figure 39:Industrial Production vs.ISM PMI Index.15Figure 40:Industrial Production vs.ISM Mfg.New Orders.15Figure 41:Industrial Production vs.Conference Board Leading Indicators.15Figure 42:Conference Board Leading Indicators vs.Real G
33、DP.15Figure 43:Chemicals sector multiples vs the yield curve.16Figure 44:A steeper yield curve has previously led rising chemicals IP.16Figure 45:Eurozone confidence indicators.17Figure 46:ZEW German economic sentiment indicator(12mo m.avg.).17Figure 47:OECD Europe CLI vs Euro area Industrial Produc
34、tion.17,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,19 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateUS Chemicals Railcar DataFigure 10:Chemical distribution channels,by volume and c
35、ost,By tonnage(882MM tons),By cost*($40.0 billion),RailTruckWaterbornePipeline,Air&Other,30%48%18%4%,20%67%10%3%,Source:American Chemistry Council.*Cost is cost of transportation,not value of product,2010 dataYear to date,chemical railcar loadings are down 1.1%Year to date,chemical railcar loadings
36、are down approximately 1.1%.With ethanolcomprising approximately 21%of chemicals loadings and DoE blending up 10%(est.)in11,we estimate that ethanol is boosting 12 US chemicals railcar loadings by roughly2%.Figure 11:Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY)60%50%40%,30%20%10%0%(10%),W
37、eek#45,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Chemicals railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Ethanol-driven Increase in loadings(estimated from blending,4-wk m.a.%YoY)Petroleum Products railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 12:Four-week moving average of we
38、ekly railcar loadings(2009-Present)33,00031,00029,00027,00025,000,23,000,Week#45,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep Oct,Nov,Dec,Source:Association of American Railroads,2010,2011,2012,SequentialChange,-,-,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan
39、-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Figure 13:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcarloadings(2009-Present)35%25%15%5%(5%),Figure 14:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2009-Present)3432302826,(15%)(25%),Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Week#45Jun Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct
40、,Nov Dec,2422,Week#45,2010,2011,2012,Jan Feb Mar2010,Apr May Jun Jul2011,Aug Sep Oct,NovDec2012,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 15:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings,%YoY(2000-Present)30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)Source:Association of American Railroads,Source:Associ
41、ation of American RailroadsFigure 16:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings(000s,2000-Present)32302826242220Source:Association of American Railroads,-,-,-,-,-,-,19 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateKey end market dataFigure 17:US chemical companies revenue expos
42、ures to key end markets,Company3M,Auto&Transport11%,Construction4%,Electronics10%,CommentsIndustrial 25%;Healthcare 18%;Consumer 15%;Energy 3%,Safety&Security 14%,Air Products,15%,Energy 24%,Genl Mfg 15%,Chemicals 17%,Metals 10%,Medical 7%,Food 3%,Others 10%,Airgas,2%,13%,Industrial Repair&Maintenan
43、ce:27%Retail&,Wholesale:4%Other 3%Medical:9%;Food;6%;Analytical:2%Utilities:2%,Petrochemical:7%“Auto&Transport”is onlyTransport and no Auto,Albemarle,6%,9%,15%,Refining 32%,Pharma/Ag 12%,Industrial 10%,Packaging 9%,Oilfield 4%,Other 3%,Ashland,8%,17%,Coatings 6%,Lubricants 15%,Chemicals 5%,Pulp/pape
44、r 12%,Energy 3%,Regulated Ind 3%,Marine 4%,Infrastructure 2%,Packaging/converting 3%,Retail consumer 3%,Personal Care3%,Medical 2%,Others 14%,CabotCelanese,15%11%,10%3%,10%,Tire 45%;Others 20%Filter Media 22%;Paints Consumer&Medical,Apps 12%;Consumer Paper&Packaging 3%,Cytec,17%,47%,Chemical Process
45、ing:13%,Mineral Processing 7%;Plastic:4%;,Adhesives:3%;Other:9%“Auto&Transport”consists ofAutomotive only,DuPont,20%,10%,9%,Agriculture/food 21%;Food Ingred,Ref Other,packaging 3%;Chemicals/petchem 5%;Textile/apparel 5%;Plastics 3%;Other industrial 7%;Aerospace 4%;Paper 1%;Healthcare 1%;Personal car
46、e 3%.“Construction”includesresidential,commercial construction”,Ferro,10%,34%,21%,Appliances 8%;Containers 8%;Household furnishings 7%;,Industrial 6%;Others 6%,HB Fuller,10%,Adhesives:72%;Paints:8%;Packaging:4%;Insulating glass:4%;Consumer:2%,LyondellBasell,7%,10%,Refining/Fuels:35%;Packaging:18%;Co
47、nsumer:12%;Coatings:,4%;Textiles/Furnishings:4%;Other:10%.“Auto&Transport”consists of Transportation only.“Construction”consists of“Building&Construction”.,PPG,30%,27%,Consumer goods 21%;Industrial goods 10%;Chemical products:,5%;Aerospace 4%;Marine 3%(Auto consists of OEM 19%,Auto aftermarket 11%),
48、Praxair,7%,Manufacturing 24%;Chemicals 10%;Energy 13%;Food andBeverage 7%;Aerospace 2%;Healthcare 10%;Metals 16%;Other 11%,Rockwood Holdings,11%,13%,8.00%,Metal Treatment 17%;Chemicals/Plastics 14%;Life Sciences,12%;Consumer Products 2%;Paper 2%;Environmental 2%;Other 8%,Valspar,3%,30%,Industrial 36
49、%,Packaging 21%,Other 10%“Auto&Transport”is,automotive refinish and“Construction”is architectural paintsSource:Company data,Deutsche Bank estimates,12/13E,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,End Market:Agricult
50、ureFigure 18:Corn stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970sSource:Deutsche BankFigure 19:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres)10595857565554535,Source:Deutsche Bank,USDA,US Corn Acreage,US Soy Acreage,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89
