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1、Brazilian Shadow Economy: a methodological contribution to the debateJoo Felippe Cury Marinho Mathias (Instituto de Economia/ UFRJ)ResumoH tempos sabido que existe no Brasil uma grande parcela da renda que no captada pelo sistema estatstico do pas. So vrias as causas desse fenmeno, dentre as quais s
2、e destacam a subdeclarao visando sonegao fiscal, vrias modalidades de lavagem de dinheiro e corrupo, contrabando de vrios produtos, questes sanitrias, fraudes a previdncia social, dentre vrios outros fatores. Com efeito, em muitos casos o sistema estatstico do pas encontra dificuldades na elaborao d
3、as estatsticas econmicas em funo da disparidade entre os dados da oferta e demanda o que muitas vezes no permite o equilbrio e a coerncia econmica. O objetivo deste trabalho apresentar elementos metodolgicos que contribuam para a construo de uma abordagem sistmica para a interpretao da economia subt
4、errnea. Aps apresentar os elementos da abordagem sistmica o objetivo especfico aplicar a abordagem cadeia produtiva de carne bovina brasileira. A nfase desse trabalho centrada nos princpios norteadores do Sistema de Contas Nacionais SNA (1993). O fio condutor do trabalho ser a observao dos aspectos
5、metodolgicos do manual da ONU levando em conta as estatsticas econmicas diversas geradas pelo rgo oficial de estatsticas do Brasil, o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatstica. Nesse sentido, para mensurar a economia subterrnea ser apresentado um mtodo indireto baseado nas contas nacionais, esp
6、ecificamente nos quadros de oferta e utilizao. Para a interpretao das causas e efeitos da economia subterrnea o trabalho sugere a adoo e adaptao dos conceitos referentes Nova Economia Institucional (NIE).Palavras-chave: Economia Subterrnea Contas Nacionais Abordagem SistmicaAbstractIt has been known
7、 for some time that, in Brazil, a large portion of the income is not captured by the countrys statistical system. There are several reasons for this phenomenon, among which the following stand out: underreporting of income for the purpose of tax evasion, various types of money laundering and corrupt
8、ion, contraband of various products, sanitation issues, social security fraud, among other factors. Indeed, in many cases the countrys statistical system has encountered difficulties preparing economic statistics given the disparity between the data for supply and demand, which often prevents econom
9、ic balance and coherence. The objective of the present study is to introduce methodological elements that will contribute to the development of a systemic approach to interpret the shadow economy. After introducing the elements of the systemic approach, the specific objective is to apply the approac
10、h to the production chain of Brazilian beef. The emphasis of this study is centered on the guidelines of the System of National Accounts SNA (1993). The main thread of the study will be the observation of the methodological aspects of the UN manual taking into account the various economical statisti
11、cs generated by the official Brazilian statistics agency, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatstica (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). In that sense, to measure the shadow economy, we will present an indirect method based on national accounting, specifically the supply and use t
12、ables. To interpret the causes and effects of the shadow economy, the study suggests the adoption and adaptation of the concepts relating to the New Institutional Economy (NIE).Key words: Shadow Economy National Accounts Systemic Approachrea Anpec: rea 4 Economia do Setor PblicoClassificao JEL: H Pu
13、blic Economics, H26 Tax EvasionBrazilian Shadow Economy: a methodological contribution to the debate1. IntroductionIt has been known for some time that, in Brazil, a large portion of the income is not captured by the countrys statistical system. There are several reasons for this phenomenon, among w
14、hich the following stand out: underreporting of income for the purpose of tax evasion, various types of money laundering and corruption, contraband of various products, sanitation issues, social security fraud, among other factors. Indeed, in many cases the countrys statistical system has encountere
15、d difficulties preparing economic statistics given the disparity between the data for supply and demand, which often prevents economic balance and coherence.Thus, if the official system of information becomes systematically skewed, it will potentially provide misguided questions, wrong answers, and
16、false information to citizens and policy makers. It becomes necessary, therefore, to search for the veracity of the macroeconomic information within a countrys statistical system so as to avoid a distortion of information. To that end, it is important to study several aspects of a countrys unobserve
17、d economy. It is in this perspective that the study of shadow economy is inserted. As pointed out by Schneider and Enste (2002) and Feige (1989), the “shadow economy” theme has different meanings for labor economists, macroeconomists, criminalists, and national accounting specialists. Additionally,
18、according to the abovementioned authors, it should be taken into consideration that there are considerable differences between developing, transitional, and developed countries (OECD) as concerns the activities associated with the shadow economy.There are several methods of estimating the shadow eco
19、nomy, however as pointed out by Schneider and Enste (2000), there is no best method. According to the authors (p. 107-108): “there is no best or commonly accepted method. Each approach has its strengths and weaknesses and can provide specific insights and results”. Regarding the shadow economy, Schn
20、eider and Enste (2002: p. 2) support that: “(.) a comprehensive overview and scientific analysis of this complex phenomenon is necessary”. It is with that perspective that the present study defends the development of sectorial estimation models to analyze the relationships between cause and effect o
21、f the shadow economy. When a change from macro- to microanalysis is proposed, the focus can be placed on the institutional environment of an activity sector, with its organizational forms and governmental structures.Naturally, a more in-depth knowledge of an activity sector allows better scrutiny of
22、 potential problems and difficulties. However, the focus on a single sector is sometimes insufficient for the understanding of statistical incoherences. It is in that sense that a more substantial and detailed analysis of economical phenomena is placed on the study of chains or productive systems an
23、d, more specifically, on the systemic focus of the product. Thus, it is possible to obtain a systemic analysis in which the product in question is analyzed from its source, through its transformation and finally to the final consumer. In the conception of National Accounts, such a method is very use
24、ful for analyzing and quantifying several production chains with the purpose of maintaining the economic coherence between supply and demand. The development of an approach that accounts for the shadow economy must first consider two elements:1. A theoretical approach to explain the causes and conse
25、quences of the “shadow economy”;2. A method of estimation of the “shadow economy”. Therefore, “analytical tools” are needed to interpret the shadow economy. In that sense, by reconciling the recommendations of the System of National Accounts (1993), the systemic focus of the product and the analytic
26、al tools suggested by the New Institutional Economy, a new systemic approach is conceived which allows the measurement of the shadow economy as well as an interpretation of its causes and effects. This reconciliation allows the articulation of the statisticians and the economists work, thus permitti
27、ng a critical analysis of the data and the use of arbitrations to identify the shadow economy. The objective of the present study is to introduce methodological elements that will contribute to the development of a systemic approach to interpret the shadow economy. After introducing the elements of
28、the systemic approach, the specific objective is to apply the approach to the production chain of Brazilian beef. The emphasis of this study is centered on the guidelines of the System of National Accounts SNA (1993). The main thread of the study will be the observation of the methodological aspects
29、 of the UN manual taking into account the various economical statistics generated by the official Brazilian statistics agency, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatstica (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). In that sense, to measure the shadow economy, we will present an indirect m
30、ethod based on national accounting, specifically the supply and use tables. To interpret the causes and effects of the shadow economy, the study suggests the adoption and adaptation of the concepts relating to the New Institutional Economy (NIE). The study is divided into four sections. The followin
31、g section aims to review the literature on shadow economy, presenting the different terms associated with the theme and introducing the various measurement methods. Section 3 presents the methodological aspects of the system approach presented here, based on three mainstays: the SNA recommendations
32、(1993); the NIS elements; and the commodity system approach. Section 4 aims to apply the systemic approach to the beef production system, with emphasis on identifying the clandestine character of beef slaughter in Brazil. Finally, the final considerations will be made. 2. Review of the literature on
33、 shadow economy2.1) Concepts and harmonization of termsAccording to Feige (1989: p. 16): “The literature produced by “underground economists” has generated a plethora of terms (underground, subterranean, shadow, informal, hidden, parallel, black, clandestine, second, household, etc.) to describe var
34、ious aspects of the unobserved sector of the economy”. In the literature regarding shadow economy, there is a generalized difficulty in providing a formal definition, given that the shadow economy encompasses numerous economic activities. The term “underground economy”, for example, has been used to
35、 cover a wide range of economic activities not necessarily limited to drug trafficking, prostitution, pornography, gambling, at-will employment or tax evasion. In other words, it does not include only black market transactions. According to Schneider and Enste (2002: p. 6): “A harmonization of terms
36、 is needed and should be attained by integrating the shadow economy into the gross national product (GNP). Although this is generally regarded as necessary, a global definition has not been yet found”. The same authors suggest the separation of economy (dual economy) into official (primary economy)
37、and unofficial economy (secondary economy) and suggest the consideration of the “hidden GNP”. In their words (p. 9): “By way of contrast, the shadow economy should be included in the added value, according to the convention of the National Income Accounts”. Figure 1: The dual economySource: Schneide
38、r and Enste (2002: p. 8)The chart suggested by the abovementioned authors does not seem to differ from the recommendations of the System of National Accounts (1993) In the present study, the reference to the SNA 1993 is related to the 2008 update published in 2009. The SNA (2009: p. 409) describes t
39、he unobserved economy:“National accountants are particularly concerned about ensuring that the whole of economic activity within the SNA production boundary is measured comprehensively. This is often referred to as the “exhaustiveness” of the coverage of the national accounts. In practice, it means
40、ensuring that the value of production activities that are illegal or hidden (that is, the “underground economy” or the “hidden economy”) as well as those that are simply described as informal is included in the accounts”. According to the SNA (2009: p. 100-101), certain activities can be productive
41、in the economic sense and also legal (as long as they satisfy certain rules and regulations), but deliberately hidden from public authorities for the following reasons: (a) To avoid taxes on income, on added value and others; (b) To avoid social security contributions; (c) To avoid certain legal req
42、uirements such as minimum wage, maximum work hours, safety or health principles, etc.; (d) To avoid particular administrative procedures such as statistical surveys or other administrative forms. All of these activities are included in the Systems frontier production, as long as they are genuine pro
43、duction processes. The producers dedicated to this type of production can consider themselves to be included in the “shadow economy”. Shadow economy can represent a substantial part of the production of certain activities, for example, construction or certain services in which small businesses predo
44、minate.Figure 2 shows a chart that illustrates the intersection between the non-observed economy in the formal and informal sectors. Figure 2: The non-observed economy and the informal sectorSource: SNA (2009: p. 474)The recommendation by the SNA (2009: p. 471) about the non-observed economy is expr
45、essed in the following words: “Exercises to measure the non-observed economy should also, in principle, cover such illegal activity. How far this is pursued in practice will depend on assessments of the importance of illegal activities, how it might be done and the resources available”. Thus, the sc
46、ope of the valuation models of the SNA (1993) is broad enough to include “clandestine” or “underreported” production. This scope allows a better compatibility between the data in quantity of supply and demand. Still regarding illegal activities, the SNA (2009: p. 100) recommends: “Of course, it may
47、be difficult, or even impossible, to obtain data on illegal operations, but in principle they should be included in the accounts, at least to reduce errors in the other items, including the balances”. The production and consumption of certain goods and services such as narcotics may be illegal Accor
48、ding to the SNA (2009), many illegal activities are crimes against people or property that could never be interpreted as operations. For example, theft can hardly be considered an action in which both parties participated by mutual agreement. Fundamentally, theft or violence is an extreme form of ex
49、ternality through which harm is inflicted upon another institutional unit in a deliberate manner and not simply in a fortuitous or accidental manner. Thus, theft of family goods for example is not treated as an operation and no corresponding estimated value will be accounted for in the familys expenses., but the market operations of such goods and serv
