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1、Empirical Analysis of the Recycling System of Waste Products in the Japanese EconomyJuly 2002Mikio Suga, Tokyo International UniversityTakashi Saito, Keio UniversityMasahideHayashida, ESRIToshiyuki Tanabe, ESRIKazuyoshi Nakata, ESRITable of Contents1. Overview11.1 Introduction11.2 Environmental Inpu
2、t Output Table21.3 The 1995 Japanese Input Output Table Modified for Recycling Analysis32. Economic Considerations on the Necessity of Recycling42.1 Introduction42.2 The Waste Problems and Recycling 42.3 Concluding Remarks43. The Sub-model for Iron Scrap Recycling63.1 Introduction63.2 The Flow of St
3、eel Production73.3 The Iron Scrap Recycling Sub-model73.4 Simulation Results104. The Sub-model for Glass Bottle Recycling114.1 Introduction114.2 The Model114.3 Simulation Analysis124.4 An Input-Output Analysis144.5 Concluding Remarks175. The Sub-model for Waste Paper Recycling185.1 The Current Situa
4、tion of Waste Paper Recycling185.2 The Material Flow of Waste Paper Recycling205.3 The Notation of Variables in the Waste Recycling Sub-model215.4 Equations of the Waste Paper Recycling Sub-model215.5 The Estimation of Parameters235.6 Simulation Results of the Waste Paper Recycling Sub-model236. The
5、 Sub-model for Aluminum Recycling246.1 Introduction246.2 The Model246.3 Simulation Analysis266.4 Input-Output Analysis of Rolled Aluminum Products Recycling296.5 Concluding Remarks337. The Sub-model for PET Resin347.1 Introduction347.1.1 Material Flow of PET Resin347.1.2 Production and Collection of
6、 PET bottles367.1.3 Current Situation of PET Bottle Recycling in Japan377.1.4 Recycling of Used PET Bottles387.2 Simulation Analysis397.2.1 The Model397.2.2 Simulation Results407.3 Concluding Remarks438. Simultaneous Simulation of Promoting the Recycling of Five Materials448.1 Introduction448.2 The
7、Modification of the Japanese 1995 Input Output Table for Recycling Analysis448.3 Notation458.4 The Operation of the Simultaneous Simulation458.5 Simultaneous Simulation Results491. OverviewMikio Suga, Tokyo International University1.1 IntroductionAs Japans economy proceeds with increasingly sophisti
8、cated recycling efforts, virgin materials will be replaced by recycled materials in production activities. The purpose of this study is twofold: 1) to make an econometric model that can describe this replacement, and 2) to propose a design of a recycling system that works well in practice. We also a
9、ttempt to evaluate this recycling system by using the input-output analysis originated by Wassily Leontief. This type of input-output analysis is useful in describing the interdependency of the economic sectors; in other words, it can estimate the induced effects on the domestic economy.At the begin
10、ning of this research project, we planned to construct recycling market sub-models by type of material: iron, glass, aluminum, paper, and PET. We have already completed the five sub-models. These models can explain the substitution of virgin materials with recycled materials in various production ac
11、tivities, the equilibrium of the virgin material market, and the recycled material market. The equilibrium price and purchase of virgin material market and recycled material market are determined endogenously.Virgin Material MarketinputProduction ActivitiesEquilibrium Price and Equilibrium PurchaseS
12、ubstitutioninputRecycled Material MarketEquilibrium Price and Equilibrium Purchase Figure 1.1 The Image of Recycling Market Sub-modelWe have also simulated some recycling policies. In our simulation, the increase of subsidiary payments to recycling activities can bring about the replacement of virgi
13、n materials with recycled materials. The recycling market sub-model determines the equilibrium price and the equilibrium purchase of the virgin material market and the recycled material market. Furthermore, applying these prices and purchases to the input output model induces estimates of the change
14、 in the consumer price and in the pollutant emission. RecyclingMarket Sub-modelsIronGlassAluminumPaperPETEquilibrium Price and Equilibrium PurchaseRecyclingPromotingPolicies Estimates of the Change in the Consumer Price in the Pollutant Emission Input Output ModelFigure 1.2The Image of the Connectio
15、n of Sub-Model and Input Output Analysis1.2 Environmental Input Output TableWassily Leontief, a Nobel Prize winner in 1973, developed input-output tables almost 50 years ago. He compiled the first input-output tables of the American economy (for the years of 1919 and 1929) in 1932 (Wassily Leontief,
16、 Structure of the American Economy, 1919-1929, 1941). Input-output tables separate the entire economy into distinct sectors and show flows of all the goods and services sold and purchased in a country in a given year. All transactions are compiled into a table, which is cross classified by the selle
17、r (output) and by the purchaser (input), so that input output table can be visualized as a set of large tables (or, in mathematical terms, a matrix), with one row and one column for each sector. Table 1.1 Japanese Input Output Table for the Year of 1995（trillions of yen） Output Sectors (Economic Act
18、ivities)Input Sectors(Commodities)Agriculture, Fisheries, ForestryMiningManufacturingConstructionElectric Power, Gas, SteamServicesFinal DemandImportsDomestic OutputsAgriculture, Fisheries, Forestry 20100015-216Mining0051100-62Manufacturing3012326141145-27313Construction00101580088Electric Power, Ga
19、s, Steam0050266019Services2156204110313-9497Gross Value Added911114110333Domestic Outputs1623138819497Today, most countries in the world routinely compile input-output tables. Input-output tables for the Japanese economy have been compiled every five years since 1955, as a joint project by 12 govern
20、ment ministries and agencies, with the Management and Coordination Agency serving as coordinator. The Japanese 1995 Input Output Table, which is the most recent, contains 403 production activities (column sectors), 519 commodity sectors (row sectors), 22 final demand sectors (column sectors), and 10
21、 gross value added sectors. Moreover, “the Material Flow Table,” which describes transactions of goods in physical units, is attached to the Japanese Input Output Table.After the publication of Structure of the American Economy, 1919-1929 in 1941, Leontief continued working on the development of the
22、 input-output theory and its various applications. In March 1970, he presented an idea of environmental input-output table in the International Pollution Symposium held in Tokyo. In 1971, MITI (Ministry of International Trade and Industry) compiled the first environmental input-output table in Japan
23、 (MITI, An Input-Output Table for Pollution Analysis An Analysis of Sulfur Oxide Pollution in the Kanto Seaside Area (in Japanese). In 1976, MITI compiled the first national environmental input-output table for the year of 1973 (MITI, An Input Output Table for Pollution Analysis, (in Japanese). In t
24、he 1970s, one main environmental problem was pollution-related respiratory disease caused by nitrogen oxide (NOx) or sulfur oxide (SOx), which are emitted from industries. MITIs table has NOx and SOx emissions data in it. However, in the 1990s the main problem has shifted from local pollution to glo
25、bal warming. In the early 1990s, Keio University, CRIEPI (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry), and the National Institute of Environment independently compiled Japanese environmental input-output tables with material flow tables and CO2 emission tables. 1.3 The 1995 Japanese Input
26、 Output Table Modified for Recycling AnalysisWe modified the 1995 Japanese Input Output Table for the recycling analysis. In our version of the table, and we established some new production activities. One example is the glass cullet sector, which collects glass bottles from household and smashes th
27、em into a cullet. We also divided some production activities. For example, we divided the hot-rolled steel products sector into two sectors: the integrated company sector and the minimills sector. Furthermore, we estimated CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions by sector. OutputInputProduction Activitiesin
28、the RecyclingMarket Sub-modelOtherProduction ActivitiesDomestic Final DemandSectorExportImportTotalIntermediateInputsin theRecyclingMarketSub-modelOtherIntermediateInputsScrap InputsGross Value-addedDomestic ProductionCO2EmissionFigure 1.3 The Image of 1995 Japanese Input Output Table Modified for R
29、ecycling Analysis2. Economic Considerations on the Necessity of RecyclingTakashi Saito, Keio University2.1 IntroductionThere is growing concern about waste management in Japan. In 1996, the amount of municipal solid waste totaled about 51 million tonnes, which had grown by about 20 percent for 10 ye
30、ars. The discharged volume per capita per tonne was 1.114 kilograms, which was about an 8 percent increase during the same period. The increased volume of waste means increased costs for disposal. In addition, Japans landfill capacity is decreasing. Unless new landfills are constructed, waste manage
31、ment must find alternative methods.In June 2000, the Japanese government proclaimed a new basic law it called, ”The Basic Law for Establishing a Recycling-Based Society.” The creation of a recycling-oriented economic system is one goal that Japan must carry out. Recycling is considered a necessary i
32、nstrument for achieving it.Some people argue, however, that recycling is not economical because it requires more energy and costs than other methods of waste disposal. This section considers whether recycling benefits social welfare. 2.2 The Waste Problems and RecyclingWe give an economic interpreta
33、tion of the waste problem from the viewpoint of recycling. Descriptions of waste in economic models vary from study to study. We will follow the thought that there is no externality if wastes are disposed appropriately. Actually, some waste problems in Japan are attributed to inappropriate disposal,
34、 such as emission of dioxins from incinerators and illicit dumping of industrial waste. Externality from wastes exists only if it is not disposed of appropriately. The problem with which economics is confronted is whether appropriate disposals are economically desirable. This is not internalizing ex
35、ternalities; it is, rather, comparing costs and benefits. And if appropriate disposals are desirable, then the problems will be replaced by options for waste disposal. Recycling is one option.To what extent should recycling be carried out? It depends on the implementation costs of each waste disposa
36、l option. Theoretically, it is optimal that each option is implemented to the extent that its marginal costs are the same. Therefore, if the costs of recycling are higher than other options, it is not desirable. But is it really so expensive?Generally, intermediate treatments of waste are said to be
37、 less expensive than recycling. But residuals after treatments need to be landfilled. Recently, the remaining capacity of landfill space has been decreasing, and problem of constructing landfill space remains. Taking that into consideration, the construction cost of new landfills may be very expensi
38、ve.Therefore, each municipality should undertake measures to save space. Landfill costs should reflect the scarcity of landfill space. Consequently, the implementation costs of intermediate treatment options will increase. Moreover, the cost of recycling cannot be said to be more expensive unconditi
39、onally. This implies that recycling is needed to some extent, and that increases in its implementation level lead to improved social welfare as long as it is not beyond an appropriate level.2.3 Concluding RemarksThis section considered the necessity of recycling from an economic view. Waste problems
40、 can be interpreted as externalities from inappropriate waste disposals. Appropriate waste disposal options, including recycling, should be implemented. In considering the scarcity of landfill space constraints, recycling is not so expensive compared with other disposal options. Therefore, it is nee
41、ded to some extent, and it will lead to better social welfare.In this section, we gave theoretical considerations to the waste problem and to recycling. The following sections will analyze the effect of recycling on the economy based on input-output analysis. We will take up five cases; iron scrap,
42、glass bottles, waste paper, aluminum, and PET resin.ReferencesBaumol, William J. and Wallace E. Oates (1988), The Theory of Environmental Policy, second edition, Cambridge University Press, New York.Fullerton, Don and Thomas C. Kinnaman (1995), “Garbage, Recycling, and Illicit Burning or Dumping,” J
43、ournal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol.29 No.1, pp.78-91.Highfill, Jannett and Michael McAsey (1997) “Municipal Waste Management: Recycling and Landfill Space Constraints,” Journal of Urban Economics, Vol.41 No.1, pp.118-136.Hosoda, Eiji (1999) Economics of Goods and Bads (Guzzu to Ba
44、zzu no Keizaigaku), Toyo Keizai Shinpo-sha, Tokyo (in Japanese).Takeda, Kunihiko (2000) Dont Recycle (Risaikuru Shiteha Ikenai), Seishun Shuppannsha, Tokyo, (in Japanese).Ueta, Kazuhiro (1992) Economics of Waste and Recycling (Haikibutsu to Risaikuru no Keizaigaku), Yuhikaku Sensho, Tokyo (in Japane
45、se).Wertz, Kenneth L. (1976) “Economic Factors Influencing Households Production of Refuse,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol.2 No.4, pp.263-272.3. The Sub-model for Iron Scrap RecyclingMikio Suga, Tokyo International University3.1 IntroductionIt is well known that the share of
46、 minimills increased while the total production of crude steel decreased in the late 1970s through 1980s in the United States. For example, the share of minimills of crude steel was 15.3 percent in 1970, 19.4 percent in 1975, 27.9 percent in 1980 and 33.9 percent in 1985 Barnet and Crandall, Up From the Ashes, The Brookings Institution, Washington D.C., 1986, p.7. Table 3.1 The Share of Minimills in Crude Steel ProductionYearCrude Steel Production(million tonnes)Share ofMinimills(%)MinimillsTotal197020.2131.515.3197522.7116.619.4198031.2111.827.9198529.288.333.9Source: Barnet and Crandall (19
