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1、Business Case for Global Hybrid MailDr. Ben Livson Copyright: BAL Consulting P/L 1999. All rights reserved. Confidential.Version 10, April 8, 1999.Table of Contents1.Executive Summary4Global Messaging Vis Postal Services Statistics42.1Business concept52.2Value Proposition to Customers63.What is the
2、reaction by National Postal Services?11SWOT Analysis of National Postal Services (PS)114.The Business History and Present125.Technology Outline of the Product-Service how does it work?135.1Intelligent Addressing135.2Distributed Nodes155.3Description of Authentication165.4Billing and Customer Care175
3、.5SMTP Handler Billing Functions176.Market Analysis Breakdown of the major Users186.1Customer segments196.2Product service bundles, pricing and revenue, and costs196.3Critical Success Factors CSFs206.4Risks and Responses217.Management and Organisation218.Financial Plan - Pricing, Revenue and Cost219
4、.Industry Literature2310.Profile on Potential Business Partners2310.1When and how to involve Global Business Partners?2310.2What does it take to make it?2310.3United Parcel Service - UPS2410.4Federal Express Corp.2510.5DHL Worldwide Express2511.Competitor Analysis2611.1Microsoft - Royal Mail2611.2Ne
5、tscape-Sweden Post-Sun2711.3E-Snail2711.4AT&T Mail2911.5International Data Post Hybrid Mail ePOST3011.5.1IDP PC ePOST3011.5.2Further development will be needed3111.6Partial Net Postage Metering Solutions - E-Stamp and StampMaster3211.7Internet Print Protocol3211.8Hybrid Mail Advertising Revenues3211
6、.9Tumbleweed POSTA and UPS OnLine Dossier and UPS OnLine Courier3311.10ELetter 3312Outsourced Corporate LAN Printing Services3513Where to from here?3514Links to Hybrid Messaging Sites361. Executive SummaryDevelop, implement and deploy globally services for integrating all messaging requirements and
7、in particular surface mail with electronic messaging into hybrid mail. Build a business asset in five years growing to ten million customers with the value of the customer base being $120 per customer for a total of $US1.2b the intent being either to float the company or sell it to an international
8、player.The investment required to create this asset of $1.2b will be of the order $US10m for initial development and early deployment, thus yielding a 120-fold return on investment.Most of the technology required is off-the-shelf, can be purchased and integrated at a low cost. The key to success is
9、in the truly innovative business paradigm.Global Messaging Vis Postal Services StatisticsEmail is becoming a major business communications rapidly substituting postal services as highlighted by recent email vis postal services global statistics: Email exceeded in 1998 for the first time postal lette
10、r service volumes: 2-billion emails/day vis 1.5 billion letters/day. There will be eight times more email than postal letters by 2001 according to Forrester Research.Business Week reports a Forrester prediction that annual message volume will balloon to 12billion messages in 2001 six times todays e-
11、mail traffic. E-mail is the most common online activity. According to a recent survey by IntelliQuest, 75% of the respondents used e-mail; 41% reported using e-mail daily, while another 27% used it weekly. Computer Industry Almanac predicts that the number of people with e-mail access worldwide will
12、 grow 800% to 450 million over the next three years, up from 60 million in 1997. Between 1998 and 2001, the number of e-mail users is projected to increase from 120 million to827 million, or a compound annual growth rate of 90% according to CNET.By 2001, enterprises will receive 25% of all customer
13、contacts and inquiries through Internete-mail according to the Gartner Group.International Data Corporation (IDC) reported in March, 1999, that approximately 200 millionpeople will access the Web in 1999, growing to 500 million by 2003 (IDC Directions Conference).IDC predicts the resultant ecommerce
14、 economy will grow even faster - from just under $100billion in 1999 to over $800 billion in 2003.The following quote by Money Talks columnist; John Tompkins is a real eye opener:It took 38 years before 50 million Americans were listening to radio. Television picked up thepace reaching that many in
15、only 14 years. The Internet had 50 million users in just fouryears.2Business Concept and Value Proposition to Customers2.1Business concept Service offeringGlobal Hybrid Mail is addressed anywhere. Core Service. Every subscriber allocated an electronic address for life, supported by a single electron
16、ic in-box for all messaging, spanning: Surface mail (a) E-mail (b) Voicemail (b) Fax, pager and SMS (b)Supporting services. Forwarding, receipts (guarantee of delivery), web-tracking, virtual mail for fax and e-mail (receiver need not have e-mail or fax number: access by dialling into their service
17、provider, PS, or by surface mail)Facilitating infrastructure: Universal in-box. Off the shelf technology covers all electronic forms (b) above. Detects and selects which electronic means to deliver the message. Eg. Amvatek/AT&T “Universal In-box” product. However, universal in-box technology does re
18、quire integration with surface mail (a) above. On demand printing (of e-mails). Sent electronically to the nearest printing factory centre, folded enveloped, barcoded and delivered. (Other options include colour printing, greeting cards, media conversion (CD-ROM, floppy etc. for video or sound attac
19、hments). Eg. Fujitsu/IBM. Converts the message to pdf file for printing.NOTE: Opportunity for outsourcing. Complex machinery and logistics; UK, Sweden and Canada have trialed Other issues: intelligent distribution, scalability and probably minimum one centre per capital city.Modular approach: (1) co
20、ncentrate initially on e-mail to e-mail and e-mail to surface mail, closely followed by (2) fax, mobile, and (3) Other value-added services.The global trend in messaging is to integrate all forms of communication into one, accessible from desktops yet supporting complete mobility of users. Significa
21、nt progress has been made in integrating electronic messaging, web e-mail for mobility, facsimile to/from email, voice mail to/from email, receive and send email by phone, and integrating the Short Message Service for mobile phones with email. Most of this technology is off-the-shelf and can be purc
22、hased for wider integration.The huge and largely untapped opportunity is in integrating surface mail with electronic messaging as hybrid mail. The market for postal services is well over a trillion dollars with the United States Postal Services USPS revenue in 1997 exceeding $US58b. Obtaining 10% of
23、 the global surface mail revenue is business opportunity worth well over $100b a year.2.2 Value Proposition to CustomersThe value proposition to customers is many-fold:1. Anything that can be represented as a computer file can be sent and received by email. Email is superb in reducing cost of commun
24、ications, very fast, easy to use being fully integrated with the desktop with new access mechanisms offering users complete mobility in terms of email forwarding, web-mail and access by phone. Email is a perfect store-forward mechanism that allows access when convenient, ability to search people, co
25、mpanies and resources by integration with ever more powerful directory services that are now global. No wonder Netscape Communications named 1997 as the year of messaging.2. Ever increasing numbers of individuals and corporations see postal services as an impost. Printing, folding into envelops, lab
26、elling and pre-paying envelops has been the source of a lot of expensive technology that is not readily available to Small to Medium Enterprises SMEs, Small Home Offices SOHOs let alone individuals. Similarly, facsimile is regarded as an additional impost.3. Hybrid mail represents major savings to S
27、OHOs in particular. The U.S. had 24 million SOHOs in 1996 increasing by more than ten percent a year faster than any other segment in the U.S. economy and having twice higher income per employee than the national U.S. average source: the Microsoft series Guerilla Marketing with Technology by J.C. Le
28、vinson. The SOHOs in the U.S.A alone would represent a golden opportunity. Hybrid mail speeds delivery from tens of hours into hours. Some 80% of time is spent preparing the envelops, delivering the mail to the post box, which then has to wait for the pick up to the sorting centre. Hybrid mail is se
29、nt to the nearest postal sorting centre in minutes not in hours.4. The savings are simple to quantify in dollars; the 1997 annual report of the United States Postal Service has the statistics of 700 pieces of mail per person year - a similar study by Xerox Australia March 1998 shows an 650 pieces of
30、 outgoing mail per staff per year. On the average a minimum 5 minutes is required to print, fold, address an envelope and post per each surface mail totalling some 60 labour hours. The SOHO labour rate in the U.S. is $26/hr translating into a direct annual saving of $1,560 per person. The indirect s
31、avings in speeding the processes and enabling superior tracking of what of what has been sent and received including return receipts are significant and need to be quantified.5. Surface mail and facsimile were in the past required to witness the signature for non-repudiation. Electronic mail with X.
32、509 certificates supports encryption of content, digital signature, digital checksum of content not having been altered during transit and non-repudiable receipt.6. Virtual Email is a concept previously reserved for the top executives with personal assistants sifting through email. Extend this servi
33、ce to the electrician or plumber running a SOHO but not having the time, or means to access a desktop. We can provide a virtual e-mail address and facsimile number with all the email and faxes converted to surface mail but still delivered very fast. We can even send a short message to the mobile for
34、 communications meeting specific criteria and the plumber can phone in for the most important messages or screen them later as surface mail. Our plumber with facsimile and email addresses will look bigger but does not have to worry about having the technology. There are millions of business people d
35、o not want to use any technology except the plain old telephone. All the rest is an impost just because (some of) the customers are using it. Amteva Technologies Inc.s Internet-Ready Intelligent Services is an example of VPIM (Voice Profile Internet Mail) that supports Fax, Automatic Speech Recognit
36、ion, Text-to-Speech synthesis, and audio management with a Unified Personal Assistant for Unified Messaging, Universal Messaging, Reach-Me Services, Voice Dialling, and Directory Services. Amteva Technologies solution integrated with our hybrid mail would be unparalleled value for business.Our analy
37、sis for the value proposition to customers follows:SOHO - at average 730* surface mail sends per user at 5minutes* preparation (for print, fold, envelope, postage and walk to letter box) = 60 hours $26/hr SOHO labour - $1,560 labour saving per year per SOHO = $2 value added per Hybrid Mail (excludin
38、g printing, postal charges etc.) Assume could charge up to $2 per message for this service. *This United States Postal Services USPS figure has to be translated to PS figure for SOHOs. The Letter Business Plan provides an Australian average of 205 letter per head - check the Australian figure for SO
39、HOs). A similar figure from Scandinavia averages 215 letters per head indicating significantly different consumer practices from the USA.*The 5-minute preparation time is highly conservative. Figures of some 10 minutes are quoted by Paul Budde, Electronic Trading Markets 1998 section 1.4.2.2 as the
40、average for printing a document, walking to the printer, then to the fax machine, to create a covert sheet, send the document, collect the receipt and return to the desk in an office environment - in our case printing is followed by folding, enveloping, addressing, delivery to the mail-room or in th
41、e case of SOHO stamping if not prepaid and delivery to the post box.A more likely scenario is 1 letter per day per Australian SOHO requiring 10 minutes handling and a total time saving of 60 hours a year as in the American case.Other benefits include reliability, ability to track the delivery via th
42、e web and speed of delivery.(c/f. $1 scenario because people not entirely rational about their time and doubts about reliability: will it really get there; what if they misprint my proposal?).SME. Centralised mailroom function often combined with bulk mailings via mail houses. Still highly manual. L
43、ittle automated and little batch processing. However, different to SOHOs are probably working closely with mailing houses, either in-house or outsourced, for direct marketing.LMEs. Highly centralised mail operations and highly automated for invoicing and other bulk mailings. But still problems with
44、the process (eg. finding the envelope store, pigeonholes, little faxing from PCs. Sending a postal item or faxing is and may be slower per item than a SOHO.Residential. Most numerous segment, but maybe slow to uptake. 2+ years.SOHO. Highly sensitive to the value of their time; and perhaps SMEs. LMEs
45、 will be slower still for hierarchical and structural reasons. Residential will WOM and experience, seeing a friend with a SOHO using hybrid mail, for example.Value proposition elements: Speed, accuracy and reliability of delivery (NB: SOHO cant check document after printed and before sent). Reliabi
46、lity bypasses the physical mailbox and straight to printing house; one means of almost totally ensuring that a document is printed as you sent it is Adobe Distiller which produces a pdf file from more than 200 desk application file types. Value-added services (track on the web, receipt sent and rece
47、ipt received) Outsourcing CAPEX printing, fax machines Convenience and choice sending and receiving (all communications in one the universal in-box) Labour savingsThese services and fees are mapped against: the sender (A-Party) the receiver (B-Party) fee structures of the following types: transactio
48、n-based pay-as-you-use fee activation fee monthly (or periodic) fee excess feeActivation and monthly fees for subscribing. There is some uncertainty over whether these should be charged. Initially, they may seem attractive for to raise revenue and to facilitate maintaining a customer relationship. However, they are also likely to retard take-up of the service.
