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1、“行业风暴”第九期资讯箱包行业研究报告 【专家点评】中国箱包需增强市场应变能力今年伊始，我国将箱包等行业的出口退税率下调了3个百分点，部分出口企业受到了影响。好在调整幅度不大，大多数企业仍然可以承受，总体外贸形式依然坚挺。然而这并不代表企业可以高枕无忧。能源、原材料价格上扬，国际贸易保护主义抬头，国际市场需求瞬息万变等因素，都可能对外贸出口产生负面影响。为此，国内出口企业应适时调整出口战略，增强市场应变能力： （一） 箱包生产企业应更积极的关注国际市场流行趋势，及时掌握消费需求变迁，设计功能更强、携带更方便、更新颖时尚的产品以满足不断变化、日趋挑剔的消费需求。（二） 选材上可进一步多样化，除使
2、用传统材料如牛皮、木质及竹编等，还可以选择纸、晶片、绣珠、麦杆、玉米皮、牛仔布、印花纹等材质面料，如韩国压花纹、日本彩云纹等，以满足不同消费者的喜好。（三） 箱包出口企业应更多的利用电子商务与国际展会了解海外市场发展动态，结识贸易伙伴，扩大产品销售。（四） 坚定走创牌之路，但不能冒进。由于目前绝大多数中国箱包企业还不具备在国际市场打自有品牌的实力，所以在国际分工明确的条件下，先进一步巩固低档市场，强化行业自律，避免竞相压价的恶性循环，为将来打出自有品牌奠定良好基础。（以上分析系整合中国轻工产品进出口商会专家的相关观点）【行业出口现状分析】一、箱包出口连年增长，屡创新高据海关统计，上半年我国箱包
3、产品出口继续保持快速增长势头，出口金额近30亿美元；去年全年的出口额首度突破50亿大关，达50.58亿美元，创历年出口新高，说明我国箱包产品出口已进入一个加速发展阶段。下图反映了98年以来我国箱包产品的出口增长情况。数据来源：海关总署 二、箱包产品出口结构分析（一） 塑纺箱包独揽出口大局。从材质上而言，我国目前箱包出口仍然以塑纺类产品为主，占出口总额的比重高达83.5；皮革箱包位居第二，比例为13.0。其他材质的箱包出口仅有3.5。（二） 塑纺箱占据一半以上的出口份额。就具体产品而言，塑纺箱的出口独占熬头。去年1-8月，塑纺箱的出口额占我国箱包出口总额的57.6，合19亿美元，成为箱包产业出口
4、的核心产品；其次是塑纺面包袋，占有14.6的出口份额；其他箱包产品占整个行业总出口额的比重如下图所示：数据来源：海关总署（三）沿海六省（市）箱包出口占全国九成以上，广东箱包一枝独秀。我国箱包产业主要集中于东南沿海一带，其中广东占据中心地位。去年1-5月，广东出口箱包8.7亿美元，占全国的43.3。排名第二位的浙江所占份额为12.9，出口金额2.6亿美元。此外上海、山东、福建、江苏等省市的箱包出口额均在1亿美元以上。数据来源：海关总署 三、箱包产品主要出口市场及分布状况 （一）亚洲、北美、欧洲市场“三足鼎立”，合计占箱包出口总额的93。今年1-6月，我国箱包产品出口29.5亿美元，其中约1/3出
5、口到亚洲；北美与欧洲市场不相上下，分别占有29.7与29.6市场份额。非洲、拉美与澳洲仍然然是中国箱包相对薄弱的外销市场。数据来源：中国对外经济贸易统计学会（二）欧、美、日、港是我箱包出口的四大海外市场，约占出口总额的80。今年1-6月，我国箱包出口中有28.0进入欧盟市场；27.9进入美国市场。此外日本市场也占我箱包产品出口的12.0，“出口转内销”即输入香港的箱包产品价值3.5亿美元，占出口总额的11.7。 出口市场出口份额 欧盟28.0 美国27.9 日本12.0 香港11.7 其他20.3合计100数据来源：中国对外经济贸易统计学会 四、海外重点市场箱包进口状况及需求分析 （一） 美国
6、箱包市场规模庞大，“中国制造”独领风骚 美国箱包市场保持平稳增长，中国产品地位持续上升。据中国驻芝加哥总领事馆提供的数据，美国市场82以上的箱包需要进口。99年以来，美国箱包进口市场一直保持平稳增长，02年全年进口量达44.4亿美元，其中中国箱包所占比重超过6成。在美国箱包市场稳健增长的同时，中国箱包在美国市场的占有率随之“水涨船高”。 美国市场箱包产品的主要进口来源。自上世纪90年代以来，中国一直是美国箱包的最大供货国，02年美国从中国进口的箱包产品价值高达28.3亿美元。其他的重要进口国还有意大利、泰国、法国、菲律宾等。数据来源：中国驻芝加哥总领事馆经商室 美国市场箱包进口方式及主要流通渠
7、道。美国进口中国箱包的主要方式有两种，一是中型消费品制造商、大中型批发零售商通过香港、澳门、台湾贸易公司及美国东西口岸贸易公司代理的形式进行，这是我国对美箱包出口的主要形式之一，第二类渠道是大型连锁零售业及制造业公司在华设立的采购公司，这类渠道的特点是订货数量大、比较稳定、但价格压得较低。美国箱包市场的销售渠道有四类，第一类是专卖店，价格主要在250美元以上，如Bentleys、Altmans、Turni等，主要销售名牌箱包，在这些店中几乎没有中国制造的箱包；第二类是百货商店和较高档的超市，价格较专卖店要便宜一些，箱包的品牌知名度也要低一些，如Macys、Dayton Hudson等，在这些店
8、出售的箱包中，中国制造的约占1/3；第三类是一些大型折扣超市，如WalMart、Kmart和Walgreen连锁店等，价格更加便宜，大部份是没有知名度的牌子，中国制造的约占一半以上，还有泰国、斯里兰卡、菲律宾和台湾省等国家和地区生产的；第四类是网上销售，高中低各类品牌均有，但价格分别比在商店里销售的同类产品便宜约10%左右。（二） 欧盟箱包市场快速增长，中国产品市场占有率连续13年位居第一。欧盟已成为中国不可分割的贸易伙伴，也是我国箱包产品的第一大外销市场。对欧出口约占我国箱包出口总额的30，我国已连续13年成为欧盟箱包市场的最大区外供货国。 欧盟箱包市场主要进口来源。上世纪90年代以来，欧盟
9、箱包市场成长率超过10，但大部分需要从欧盟区外进口。亚洲国家（地区）是欧盟箱包进口的主要来源，其中中国是欧盟箱包产品的最大贸易伙伴，约占区外进口的70。其他主要的区外供应国（地区）还有印度、香港、越南等。排名供应国（地区）占区外进口的比重1中国702印度合计占213香港4越南5美国6瑞士7泰国8台湾9印尼10韩国欧盟箱包区外进口的主要来源 中国箱包市场地位不断提升，领先优势持续扩大。与其他供货国相比，中国箱包由于在价格上更具竞争优势，其对欧出口速度与出口总量均遥遥领先于其他海外竞争者。在过去十年内，中国箱包对欧出口增加了近21亿欧元，而其他竞争者的出口增幅十分有限。 拓展欧盟市场的注意事项。据
10、专家估计，未来几年中国箱包对欧盟出口还有较大的增长空间，但有两个方面的问题需要引起高度重视。一是要提高出口产品档次；二是随时警惕欧盟的反倾销调查。目前我输箱包产品价格每吨不到8000欧元，不到印度同类产品价格的零头，几乎是欧盟区外供应国中箱包价格最低的国家。如对欧出口价格达到印度的一半，则每年将增加8亿欧元的出口额。反倾销是欧盟最常用的贸易保护手段。为免于或减少反倾销调查，出口企业除了考虑提升产品品质外，合理有序出口也是规避贸易风险的重要手段。（三） 日本箱包市场。据日本海关统计，近年来，中国产箱包产品已占日本进口比例的45.4，出口数量已达到其他国家短期内无法企及的程度，但从中国产品在日本市
11、场的市场定位、产品形象、消费者评价等方面看，中国产品与其他国家的同类产品相比，还存在有相当的差距。中国箱包产品要扩大对日出口，通过单纯的价格手段已很难实现目的，提升品质、创立品牌，提高出口含金量已是大势所趋，人心所向。【行业网上优势分析】一、箱包行业会员数量及结构阿里巴巴英文网站箱包行业目前共有会员近34000名，其中买家23200多名，约占会员总数的70；目前整个箱包行业“中国供应商”会员89家。买家与供应商数量之比约261：1，即每个供应商平均拥有261位以上的潜在买家。中国供应商:买家1 : 26123217名89家数据来源：阿里巴巴英文站会员数据库抽取分析，时间截至2004年7月30日
12、待添加的隐藏文字内容2二、箱包行业买家数量及分布状况 目前，阿里巴巴英文站箱包行业买家达23200余名，主要分布于亚洲和北美地区，二者所占比例分别为40.7、26.4，其次是欧洲（东欧除外），达14.0。买家数量排名前10位的国家（地区）分别为，美国、中国大陆、英国、香港、印度、加拿大、澳大利亚、土耳其、韩国、马来西亚，其中来自美国的买家数量多达5200余名。数据来源：阿里巴巴英文站买家数据库抽取分析，时间截至2004年7月30日三、箱包行业买家查询情况分析（一）买家上网查询的部分常用关键字列表（以04年10月为例）查询关键字月查询次数查询关键字月查询次数查询关键字月查询次数Bag(s)202
13、58Shopping bag(s)2186Cd case(s)1991Hand bag(s)12247Cosmetic bag(s)1393Dvd case(s)1606Plastic bag(s)4032case(s)2954Pc case(s)1438Paper bag(s)2384Computer case(s)2992Suit case(s)1083（二）查询总量不断攀升。箱包是买家网上采购的热门商品，也是阿里巴巴供应商会员反馈最具优势的行业之一。今年1到6月，海外买家对箱包供应商的查询增长了50以上。随着部分箱包产品贸易配额制的取消，箱包业出口又将迎来新的高峰，阿里巴巴中国供应商会员
14、预计会收获更多的买家询盘。 （注：上图仅反映买家查询量的增长趋势，非具体查询量数值）（三）买家查询主要来自于亚洲、北美与欧洲。目前，亚洲、北美、欧盟是我国箱包产品的主要外销市场，占出口总量的九成以上。而阿里巴巴箱包供应商接获的买家询盘也有约80来自以上地区。 阿里巴巴中国供应商【网上贸易成功案例分享】 打造卡尔的箱包世界电子商务要取得成功，首先是要依托一个世界级的电子商务平台，好的平台会使你的出口事半功倍；其次要依托一个有实力的“大后方”，也就是企业的综合实力要强，表现在生产的能力、产品的质量、产品的价格、产品的交期、各类认证等方面；最后是外贸操作人员要具备专业的素质。这三点我认为是企业的电子
15、商务取得成功最关键也是最基本的条件。阿里巴巴是一家成长很快的企业，马云是一个非常有魅力的企业家，我很认同！卡尔加入阿里巴巴“中国供应商”这3个多月的尝试，总体来说是比较满意的。买家询盘的数量和质量都不错，并且有了几万美金的成交。我们今年的目标是让箱包的出口能占到企业产值的2030，充分发挥工厂的效能，为企业的发展再添动力。受访人：厦门市卡尔进出口贸易有限公司 郑永刚经理 从1,270到20,000,00003年4月，杭州凯瑞正式成为阿里巴巴“中国供应商”会员。直至年末，凯瑞公司才迎来第一笔订单，可成交金额只有1270美金。然而我们没有抱怨阿里巴巴网站，而是检讨自己在哪些环节上没有做好。从200
16、4年开始，我们的电子商务出现了转机，陆续与众多买家建立合作关系，这其中，我们看到了德国官方买家的身影，他们是德国铁路公司和德国移动公司。目前与公司保持长期合作关系的买家已有5位，每天都在网上保持联系。我们一直认为，贸易的生命在于优质的服务。如今，电子商务可以取代国内交易会的条件就是利用网络快捷的优势，将自己最快、最强、最好的服务质量呈现在国际贸易平台上。现在我们骄傲地说：“凯瑞做到了！” 我行！我可以！凯瑞的这群年轻人一直这样鼓励自己，披荆斩棘走到了今天。目前他们已经续签了两年的“中国供应商”服务，通过电子商务获得的订单金额总计200多万美金，占公司出口销售总额的59%。 王经理语重心长地说：
17、“诚信使我们成为阿里大家庭中的一员，既然作出了这样的选择，我们会义无返顾地走下去，与阿里巴巴共同进步、成长！”受访人：杭州凯瑞服饰有限公司 王群经理Editors note: Judson Jones is a meteorologist, journalist and photographer. He has freelanced with CNN for four years, covering severe weather from tornadoes to typhoons. Follow him on Twitter: jnjonesjr (CNN) - I will always
18、wonder what it was like to huddle around a shortwave radio and through the crackling static from space hear the faint beeps of the worlds first satellite - Sputnik. I also missed watching Neil Armstrong step foot on the moon and the first space shuttle take off for the stars. Those events were way b
19、efore my time.As a kid, I was fascinated with what goes on in the sky, and when NASA pulled the plug on the shuttle program I was heartbroken. Yet the privatized space race has renewed my childhood dreams to reach for the stars.As a meteorologist, Ive still seen many important weather and space even
20、ts, but right now, if you were sitting next to me, youd hear my foot tapping rapidly under my desk. Im anxious for the next one: a space capsule hanging from a crane in the New Mexico desert.Its like the set for a George Lucas movie floating to the edge of space.You and I will have the chance to wat
21、ch a man take a leap into an unimaginable free fall from the edge of space - live.The (lack of) air up there Watch man jump from 96,000 feet Tuesday, I sat at work glued to the live stream of the Red Bull Stratos Mission. I watched the balloons positioned at different altitudes in the sky to test th
22、e winds, knowing that if they would just line up in a vertical straight line we would be go for launch.I feel this mission was created for me because I am also a journalist and a photographer, but above all I live for taking a leap of faith - the feeling of pushing the envelope into uncharted territ
23、ory.The guy who is going to do this, Felix Baumgartner, must have that same feeling, at a level I will never reach. However, it did not stop me from feeling his pain when a gust of swirling wind kicked up and twisted the partially filled balloon that would take him to the upper end of our atmosphere
24、. As soon as the 40-acre balloon, with skin no thicker than a dry cleaning bag, scraped the ground I knew it was over.How claustrophobia almost grounded supersonic skydiverWith each twist, you could see the wrinkles of disappointment on the face of the current record holder and capcom (capsule commu
25、nications), Col. Joe Kittinger. He hung his head low in mission control as he told Baumgartner the disappointing news: Mission aborted.The supersonic descent could happen as early as Sunday.The weather plays an important role in this mission. Starting at the ground, conditions have to be very calm -
26、 winds less than 2 mph, with no precipitation or humidity and limited cloud cover. The balloon, with capsule attached, will move through the lower level of the atmosphere (the troposphere) where our day-to-day weather lives. It will climb higher than the tip of Mount Everest (5.5 miles/8.85 kilomete
27、rs), drifting even higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airliners (5.6 miles/9.17 kilometers) and into the stratosphere. As he crosses the boundary layer (called the tropopause), he can expect a lot of turbulence.The balloon will slowly drift to the edge of space at 120,000 feet (22.7 mil
28、es/36.53 kilometers). Here, Fearless Felix will unclip. He will roll back the door.Then, I would assume, he will slowly step out onto something resembling an Olympic diving platform.Below, the Earth becomes the concrete bottom of a swimming pool that he wants to land on, but not too hard. Still, hel
29、l be traveling fast, so despite the distance, it will not be like diving into the deep end of a pool. It will be like he is diving into the shallow end.Skydiver preps for the big jumpWhen he jumps, he is expected to reach the speed of sound - 690 mph (1,110 kph) - in less than 40 seconds. Like hitti
30、ng the top of the water, he will begin to slow as he approaches the more dense air closer to Earth. But this will not be enough to stop him completely.If he goes too fast or spins out of control, he has a stabilization parachute that can be deployed to slow him down. His team hopes its not needed. I
31、nstead, he plans to deploy his 270-square-foot (25-square-meter) main chute at an altitude of around 5,000 feet (1,524 meters).In order to deploy this chute successfully, he will have to slow to 172 mph (277 kph). He will have a reserve parachute that will open automatically if he loses consciousnes
32、s at mach speeds.Even if everything goes as planned, it wont. Baumgartner still will free fall at a speed that would cause you and me to pass out, and no parachute is guaranteed to work higher than 25,000 feet (7,620 meters).It might not be the moon, but Kittinger free fell from 102,800 feet in 1960
33、 - at the dawn of an infamous space race that captured the hearts of many. Baumgartner will attempt to break that record, a feat that boggles the mind. This is one of those monumental moments I will always remember, because there is no way Id miss this.Editors note: Judson Jones is a meteorologist,
34、journalist and photographer. He has freelanced with CNN for four years, covering severe weather from tornadoes to typhoons. Follow him on Twitter: jnjonesjr (CNN) - I will always wonder what it was like to huddle around a shortwave radio and through the crackling static from space hear the faint bee
35、ps of the worlds first satellite - Sputnik. I also missed watching Neil Armstrong step foot on the moon and the first space shuttle take off for the stars. Those events were way before my time.As a kid, I was fascinated with what goes on in the sky, and when NASA pulled the plug on the shuttle progr
36、am I was heartbroken. Yet the privatized space race has renewed my childhood dreams to reach for the stars.As a meteorologist, Ive still seen many important weather and space events, but right now, if you were sitting next to me, youd hear my foot tapping rapidly under my desk. Im anxious for the ne
37、xt one: a space capsule hanging from a crane in the New Mexico desert.Its like the set for a George Lucas movie floating to the edge of space.You and I will have the chance to watch a man take a leap into an unimaginable free fall from the edge of space - live.The (lack of) air up there Watch man ju
38、mp from 96,000 feet Tuesday, I sat at work glued to the live stream of the Red Bull Stratos Mission. I watched the balloons positioned at different altitudes in the sky to test the winds, knowing that if they would just line up in a vertical straight line we would be go for launch.I feel this missio
39、n was created for me because I am also a journalist and a photographer, but above all I live for taking a leap of faith - the feeling of pushing the envelope into uncharted territory.The guy who is going to do this, Felix Baumgartner, must have that same feeling, at a level I will never reach. Howev
40、er, it did not stop me from feeling his pain when a gust of swirling wind kicked up and twisted the partially filled balloon that would take him to the upper end of our atmosphere. As soon as the 40-acre balloon, with skin no thicker than a dry cleaning bag, scraped the ground I knew it was over.How
41、 claustrophobia almost grounded supersonic skydiverWith each twist, you could see the wrinkles of disappointment on the face of the current record holder and capcom (capsule communications), Col. Joe Kittinger. He hung his head low in mission control as he told Baumgartner the disappointing news: Mi
42、ssion aborted.The supersonic descent could happen as early as Sunday.The weather plays an important role in this mission. Starting at the ground, conditions have to be very calm - winds less than 2 mph, with no precipitation or humidity and limited cloud cover. The balloon, with capsule attached, wi
43、ll move through the lower level of the atmosphere (the troposphere) where our day-to-day weather lives. It will climb higher than the tip of Mount Everest (5.5 miles/8.85 kilometers), drifting even higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airliners (5.6 miles/9.17 kilometers) and into the str
44、atosphere. As he crosses the boundary layer (called the tropopause), he can expect a lot of turbulence.The balloon will slowly drift to the edge of space at 120,000 feet (22.7 miles/36.53 kilometers). Here, Fearless Felix will unclip. He will roll back the door.Then, I would assume, he will slowly s
45、tep out onto something resembling an Olympic diving platform.Below, the Earth becomes the concrete bottom of a swimming pool that he wants to land on, but not too hard. Still, hell be traveling fast, so despite the distance, it will not be like diving into the deep end of a pool. It will be like he
46、is diving into the shallow end.Skydiver preps for the big jumpWhen he jumps, he is expected to reach the speed of sound - 690 mph (1,110 kph) - in less than 40 seconds. Like hitting the top of the water, he will begin to slow as he approaches the more dense air closer to Earth. But this will not be
47、enough to stop him completely.If he goes too fast or spins out of control, he has a stabilization parachute that can be deployed to slow him down. His team hopes its not needed. Instead, he plans to deploy his 270-square-foot (25-square-meter) main chute at an altitude of around 5,000 feet (1,524 meters).In order to deploy this chute successfully, he will have to slow to 172 mph (277 kph). He will have a reserve parachute that will open automatically if he loses consciousness at mach speeds.Even if everything goes
