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1、顺势而为，逆市生长,2019,年宏观环境及行业走势分析,1,2,3,目,录,取,势,宏观大势,明,市,市场行情,择,术,生长之术,1,2,3,目,录,明,市,市场行情,择,术,生长之术,取,势,宏观大势,政商关系这门学问比博士后还高，,在中国，远离政府太假了。,-,王健林,加快发展大众化餐饮指导意见,“构建大众化餐饮服,务体系：健全大众化,网络,；发展大众化消,费；提高大众化供应,能力；创新大众化服,务模式。”,食品安全法（修订草案）,“网络食品交易第三,方平台提供者应当对,入网食品经营者进行,实名登记，明确入网,食品经营者的食品安,全管理责任,”,注册资本登记制度改革方案,“宽进严管。在放宽
2、,注册资本等准入条件,的同时，进一步强化,市场主体责任，健全,完善配套监管制,度”,政策法令：,宽进严管，引导消费,发文日期,:2019,年,02,月,07,日,发行日期,:2019,年,10,月,01,日,发文日期,:2019,年,06,月,06,日,国际经济：,缓慢复苏，增速分化加剧,-0.8,2.3,-1.9,-0.5,2.4,2,2,2.6,2.4,0.9,14.2,9.6,9.2,10.6,9.5,7.7,7.7,7.4,-5,0,5,10,15,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,日本,美国,欧元区,中国,（单位,:%,）,国际经济：,缓
3、慢复苏，增速分化加剧,2019 7.7%,2019,7.4%,2019 1.3%,2019,0.2%,2019 5.0%,2019,5.6%,2019 2.3%,2019,0.3%,2019 1.9%,2019,1.4%,国内经济：,调结构，稳增长,6.4,7.9,7,0,5,10,15,20,0,50000,100000,150000,200000,250000,300000,350000,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015Q1,第一产业（亿元）,第二产业（亿元）,第三产业（亿元）,第二产业增长率（,%,）,第三产业增长率（,%,）,GD
4、P,增长率（,%,）,（一）利率：降准降息，刺激市场活力,历次,调整,2019-11-22,【一年期贷款基准利率】,0.4%,【存款基准利率】,0.25%,2019-02-04,2019-02-28,2019-04-20,2019-05-11,【人民币存款准备金率】,0.5%,【一年期贷款基准利率】,0.25%,【一年期存款基准利率】,0.25%,【人民币存款准备金率】,1%,【一年期贷款基准利率】,0.25%,【一年期存款基准利率】,0.25%,2019,2019,？,43%,48%,76%,（二）服务业：发展快速，潜力巨大,发达国家水准,第一产业,第二产业,第三产业,（三）收入：持续上涨，
5、谨防中等收入陷阱,1994:,￥,3496,2019,：,￥,28844,13,倍,（四）消费：,1.,低迷行情延续，线上消费依然强势,74.06,128.5,105.2,95.5,56,64.7,42.8,49.7,41.3,16.8,21.6,15.5,18.4,17.1,14.3,13.1,12,10.6,0,20,40,60,80,100,120,140,0,50000,100000,150000,200000,250000,300000,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015Q1,网上商品零售额,(,亿元,),社会消费品零售总额,(,
6、亿元,),网上商品零售额增长率（,%,）,社会消费品零售总额增长率（,%,）,0.6%,11.9%,31.2%,22.7%,10.6%,6.9%,6.1%,2.5%,7.8%,12.3%,恩格尔系数,(Engels Coefficient),是食品支出总额占个人消费支出总额的比重。,59%,以上为贫困，,50-59%,为温饱，,40-50%,为小康，,30-40%,为富裕,，低于,30%,为最富裕,（四）消费：,2.,结构偏重衣食住行,社会文化,人口,指标,2019,年,2019,年,2019,年,2019,年,2009,年,2000,年,2019,年,2019,年,2019,年,2019,年
7、,年末总人口,(,万人,),136,072,135,404,134,735,134,091,133,450,126,743,125,786,124,761,123,626,122,389,0-14,岁人口,(,万人,),22,329,22,287,22,164,22,259,24,659,29,012,31,950,32,064,32,093,32,311,15-64,岁人口,(,万人,),100,582,100,403,100,283,99,938,97,484,88,910,85,157,84,338,83,448,82,245,65,岁及以上人口,(,万人,),13,161,12,714
8、,12,288,11,894,11,307,8,821,8,679,8,359,8,085,7,833,总抚养比,(%),35.3,34.9,34.4,34.2,36.9,42.6,47.7,47.9,48.1,48.8,少儿抚养比,(%),22.2,22.2,22.1,22.3,25.3,32.6,37.5,38,38.5,39.3,老年抚养比,(%),13.1,12.7,12.3,11.9,11.6,9.9,10.2,9.9,9.7,9.5,社会文化,人口,总人口,95,后,3.4%,法国人口,社会文化,环境,时间：,2019,年,2,月,28,日,3,月,2,日,13,：,52,原创微博
9、数：,133,667,条,总转发量：,1,419,235,总评论数：,273,786,（其中,2,月,28,日当天总曝光量：,20.63,亿次，用户,提及率,89.08,，,占,15,央视春晚,1/5,),技术环境,移动互联网时代,2019,年移动互联网十大热点,1,、微商,2,、,众筹,3,、,O2O,4,、自媒体,5,、境外电商,6,、互联网金融,7,、,P2P,租车,8,、,大数据,9,、,移动支付,10,、,社会化营销,改变，无处不在,明,市,市场行情,2,1,3,目,录,择,术,生长之术,取,势,宏观大势,餐饮市场经营分析,总体,17635.5,20543.3,23282.7,253
10、91.9,27860.2,7458.1,18,16.9,13.6,9,9.7,11.3,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,0,5000,10000,15000,20000,25000,30000,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015Q1,全国餐饮收入,(,亿元,),全国餐饮收入增长率（,%,）,吃货眼中的中国,15,年餐饮收入前五,1,、广东,2,、山东,3,、江苏,4,、河南,5,、浙江,餐饮市场经营分析,区域,餐饮市场经营分析,高端,VS,大众（,2019,）,项目,高端餐饮,大众餐饮,每平米营收,0.86,万元,1.04,万元,每餐位营收,2.
11、8,万元,5.19,万元,人均劳效,18.09,万元,14.09,万元,人均消费变动,较上年下降,20%,较上年,增长,15.2%,消费人次,较上年增长,10%,较上年,增长,9.5%,平均毛利,52.8%,56%,平均净利,3.5%,5.38%,餐饮市场经营分析,快餐市场分析,501.06,572.8,747.62,882.65,898.79,13.6,14.3,30.5,18,1.8,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,35,0,100,200,300,400,500,600,700,800,900,1000,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,快餐服务业营业额,(,亿元,
12、),营业额增长率（,%,）,餐饮市场经营分析,快餐市场分析,33%,14%,26%,销售额,原料进货成本,房租成本,人力成本,能源成本,各项税费合计,其他,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,各项税费合计,能源成本,人力成本,房租成本,原料进货成本,1.10%,1%,2.80%,2.60%,-1%,餐饮市场经营分析,序,号,单位,:,百万美元,2019,2019,2019,2019,01,营收总额,12,626,13,633,13,084,13,279,02,营收成本总额,9,140,72.4%,9,852,72.3%,9,501,72.6%,9,682,72.9%,03,毛利,3,
13、486,27.6%,3,781,27.7%,3,583,27.4%,3,597,27.1%,04,销售,/,常规,/,行政费用,总额,1,517,12.0%,1,613,11.8%,1,539,11.8%,1,549,11.7%,05,研发费用,0,0.0%,30,0.2%,31,0.2%,30,0.2%,06,非常规支出,(,收入,),207,1.6%,-115,-0.8%,231,1.8%,477,3.6%,07,运营开支总额,10,811,85.6%,11,339,83.2%,11,286,86.3%,11,722,88.3%,08,运营利润,1,815,14.4%,2,294,16.8
14、%,1,798,13.7%,1,557,11.7%,09,税前利润,1,659,13.1%,2,145,15.7%,1,551,11.9%,1,427,10.7%,10,税后利润,1,335,10.6%,1,608,11.8%,1,064,8.1%,1,021,7.7%,11,少数权益,-16,-0.1%,-11,-0.1%,27,0.2%,30,0.2%,12,净利润,1,319,10.4%,1,597,11.7%,1,091,8.3%,1,051,7.9%,8%,-4%,1.5%,餐饮市场经营分析,序,号,单位,:,百万美元,2019,2019,2019,2019,01,营收总额,27,0
15、06,27,567,28,106,27,441,02,营收成本总额,16,319,60.4%,16,751,60.8%,17,203,61.2%,16,986,61.9%,03,毛利,10,687,39.6%,10,816,39.2%,10,903,38.8%,10,456,38.1%,04,销售,/,常规,/,行政费用,总额,2,394,8.9%,2,439,8.8%,2,407,8.6%,2,511,9.2%,05,研发费用,0,0.0%,0,0.0%,0,0.0%,0,0.0%,06,非常规支出,(,收入,),-59,-0.2%,-100,-0.4%,-169,-0.6%,10,0.0%
16、,07,运营开支总额,18,476,68.4%,18,962,68.8%,19,341,68.8%,19,492,71.0%,08,运营利润,8,530,31.6%,8,605,31.2%,8,764,31.2%,7,949,29.0%,09,其他收益净值,-55,-0.2%,-28,-0.1%,-45,-0.2%,-7,0.0%,10,税前利润,8,012,29.7%,8,079,29.3%,8,205,29.2%,7,372,26.9%,11,税后利润,5,503,20.4%,5,465,19.8%,5,586,19.9%,4,758,17.3%,12,净利润,5,503,20.4%,5,
17、465,19.8%,5,586,19.9%,4,758,17.3%,-2.5%,2.1%,1.9%,餐饮市场经营分析,序,号,单位,:,百万美元,2019,2019,2019,2019,01,营收总额,11,700,13,277,14,867,16,448,02,营收成本总额,8,510,72.7%,9,731,73.3%,10,668,71.8%,11,497,69.9%,03,毛利,3,190,27.3%,3,545,26.7%,4,198,28.2%,4,951,30.1%,04,销售,/,常规,/,行政费用,总额,749,6.4%,801,6.0%,938,6.3%,991,6.0%,
18、05,折旧,/,摊销,523,4.5%,550,4.1%,621,4.2%,710,4.3%,06,非常规支出,(,收入,),-30,-0.3%,0,0.0%,2,784,18.7%,-20,-0.1%,07,其他运营开支总额,393,3.4%,407,3.1%,432,2.9%,457,2.8%,08,运营开支总额,9,972,85.2%,11,279,85.0%,15,192,102.2%,13,367,81.3%,09,运营利润,1,729,14.8%,1,997,15.0%,-325,-2.2%,3,081,18.7%,10,税前利润,1,811,15.5%,2,059,15.5%,-
19、230,-1.5%,3,160,19.2%,11,税后利润,1,248,10.7%,1,385,10.4%,9,0.1%,2,068,12.6%,12,少数权益,-2,0.0%,-1,0.0%,-1,0.0%,0,0.0%,13,净利润,1,246,10.6%,1,384,10.4%,8,0.1%,2,068,12.6%,13%,12%,11%,3,2,1,目,录,明,市,市场行情,择,术,生长之术,取势宏观大势,4,、把握流行趋势,3,、做极致产品,2,、做“群”概念,1,、塑造企业文化,企业生长之术,内修于心，外修于行,顶层设计：明确愿景使命，描绘企业蓝图,客户导向：聚焦核心人群，用心打造
20、产品与,服务,爆品优品：塑造特色品牌印记，并经常迭代,更新,紧跟潮流：,IT,智能化系统打造、供应链体系,（溯源管理）、网络营销、,O2O,市场开拓,巨变的时代，严峻市场环境下企业战略选择,目标？路径？资源？,竹石,咬定青山不放松，,立根原在破岩中。,千磨万击还坚韧，,任尔东西南北风。,炎热的小镇。,慵懒的一天。,太阳高挂，街道无人，每家小店的老板都是债台高筑，靠着,仅有的信用经营度日。,这时，从外地来了一位有钱的旅客，他进了一家旅馆，拿出,一张,1000,元钞票放在柜台，说想先看看房间，挑一间合适的过,夜。,就在此人上楼的时候,旅店老板抓了这张,1000,元钞，匆忙地跑到隔壁屠户那里支付,了他欠的肉钱。,屠夫有了,1000,元，横过马路付清了猪农的猪本钱。,猪农拿了,1000,元，出去付了他欠的饲料款。,那个卖饲料的老兄，拿到,1000,元赶忙去付清他召妓的钱,(,经,济不景气，当地的服务业也不得不提供信用服务,),。,有了,1000,元，这名妓女冲到旅馆付了她所欠的房钱。,旅馆老板忙把这,1000,元放到柜台上，以免旅客下楼时起疑。,此时那人正下楼来，拿起,1000,元，声称没一间满意的，他把,钱收进口袋，走了,这一天，没有人生产了什么东西，也没有人得到什么东西，,可全镇的债务都清了，大家很开心,
