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1、南京六朝皇家公园旅游度假别墅项目可行性研究报告一、项目基本概况 溧水县系安徽省毗邻，北接江宁区，东连句容县和溧阳市，南与高淳县接壤，是秦淮河上游源头所在地。溧水县处在以上海为中心的长江三角洲地区，距南京约40公里，境内交通便捷，车程时间约40分钟。目前以拥有连接宁、沪、苏锡常等大中城市的高等级公路，宁杭高速、沿江高速公路正在建设之中，宁杭铁路也在加紧筹划中，为溧水全面开发开放构筑了良好的外部条件。项目位于南京市南郊溧水县幸庄水库周边地区和无想寺、无想寺水库周边地区，幸庄水库周边面积为4450亩，可开发面积约3000亩，幸庄水库水域面积340亩，幸庄水库离县中1.8公里。二、置地立项有利条件 1
2、、有利于增强企业持续发展能力。根据总公司五年及十年中长期发展战略，为增强企业发展后劲，实现规模效益、创树品牌，做专、做精、做大、做强房地产主业。必须在金陵世纪花园、江宁等现有项目的基础上积极寻找后续开发地块。进一步拓展发展空间。2、土地价值具有一定的升值空间。由于土地资源的稀缺性和不可再生性以及土地市场化运作的必然趋势，使得近两年来南京市土地价格上升幅度较大。随着南京市政府新一轮开发高潮的掀起和城市化进程的加快以及溧水县投资经济的启动，必将带动房地产的快速发展，预示着该项目有着一定的发展前景。3、启动该项目的有利时机。经初步市场调研以及和县政府高层的接触，预计该地块取得的价格每亩8万元左右。目
3、前如以少量的资金取得此项目，同时随着金陵世纪花园的竣工，上乘庵项目、江宁项目的实施，公司将取得一定的经济效益。若三年以后正式启动该项目将有一定的资金支撑。三、市场分析 （一）房地产总体走势 房地产业作为国民经济支柱产业，近几年随着国家采取的一系列扩大内需、增加投资的积极而有效政策，房地产得到了快速发展，并对国家经济的发展和繁荣起到了较好的拉动作用。随着中国加入WTO，国民经济持续发展以及南京市政府为实现富民强市加快发展的宏伟目标而实施的新一轮城市建设高潮，为房地产业赢来了新的发展机遇。同时，随着居民收入水平的提高和国家住房制度改革的推动作用，对房地产的有效需求，呈现出房地产市场购销两旺、经济繁
4、荣的良好发展态势。 （二）旅游度假别墅市场分析1、别墅市场从近十年发展来看，我国别墅市场的发展呈曲线上升的势头，经历了高潮低谷升温热潮四个过程。目前正处于别墅开发的第二个热潮。别墅市场从沉寂中苏醒过来，主要是近年随着二次置业者的增加，造成了别墅市场的升温。别墅物业作为一种高档商品，如今已经成为人们身份、地位、财富的象征。别墅市场的区域分布主要集中在深圳、广州、北京、上海、杭州等几个大城市。别墅的空间分布特征有一定的相似性，主要聚集在交通比较便捷的一小时都市圈内，私家车出入较方便的区位，周边依山傍水，空气清馨，环境轻松的地区，真正实现悠闲的别墅生活环境。南京的别墅市场近两年也已启动，主要集中在亚
5、东和江宁等城郊结合地带。从销售情况看具有较好的市场前景。 2、旅游市场 随着人民生活水平的提高和对生活质量的追求，必将带动旅游市场的发展和繁荣。因为本项目紧临无想寺风景区，从营销角度，我们要充分利用溧水县著名景点无想寺和丰富的山水资源，通过宣传山景、水景、树景、寺景及野趣，突出山的灵性，水的动性，人的和谐性。预计无想寺旅游景点在今后几年内将建成为南京的著名景点，会集聚一定人气，对本项目产生一定促进作用。 （三）差异化竞争策略 可整合旅游资源，是该项目区别于南京市别墅市场的特征。应把握好以下几个要点：一是市场定位。在经济型精品别墅、豪华别墅和极品别墅中，我们倾向于前两种。档次定位为中高档，目标消
6、费群市场细分为IT、金融、房地产等行业的新兴的“中产阶级”、白领、金领人士和企业家、高级经理人等。客户群既可是南京溧水及周边地区的高收入阶层，也可是苏南、浙江、上海、安徽等地区的高收入阶层；二是产品定位。集居住、旅游度假、投资于一体的别墅，既可作为第一居所也可作为第二居所，但以第二居所为主；建筑风格融中国文化于现代建筑风格中，即具有中国皇家园林的高贵风范又具有现代建筑的新潮时尚；户型面积大小取决于别墅形态以买家需求，联排别墅为180220平方米，独立别墅为250350平方米；三是价格定位。别墅价格不能走高与低的极端，太高曲高和寡，太低“有失身份”，关键是适度抬高。别墅不易采取降低策略，应预留一
7、定的升值空间。对于滚动开发的别墅来说尤其重要。建议每幢房款在60120万元。四、项目实施的总体构想（一） 项目名称南京六朝皇家公园别墅（二） 开发形式自主开发合作开发（三） 筹融资及启动资金资金来源渠道一是自有流动资金，主要是金陵世纪花园、江宁等开发项目的投资收益；二是银行贷款；三是本项目滚动式开发的回笼资金。该项目首付款为500万元，启动资金为2000万元。（四） 时间安排项目实施计划分3年、5年、510年的近中远期,分期滚动开发。（五） 房地产开发思路 房地产开发从2004年开始，一期土地200亩，当年建成，预计销售40%，计划共分四期运作。每栋别墅占地一亩，建筑面积250平米，开发建筑成
8、本3000元/平米，售价4500元/平米。2011年全部建成，2012年销售完毕。A 启动资金2002年投入1000万，2003年贷款5000万，至2005年总共贷款2.2亿元。B 项目前三年投入资金2002年投入500万，2004年贷款5000万。 C 投资回收 预计到2005年下半年，达到收支平衡，2005年后项目进入自行滚动的良性循环阶段。预计开发周期12年，按动态分析，假设基准收益率10%，总利润为4.42亿元，年收益率约16.5%（详见表一）。五、经济测算（见附表一）六、房地产风险分析1 盈亏平衡点分析按销售价格4500元/平米，建造成本3000元/平米，回报期10年，基本收益率10
9、%（折现率）土地平衡点MAX=21万/亩详见附表二2 敏感性分析销售价格变化NPV(10%)振幅400028.6-141002002-0.842003975-0.643005949-0.444007922-0.2基准线989504600118690.24700138420.44800158160.64900177890.85000197631土建成本变化NPV(10%)振幅250020809-1.1260018626-0.88270016443-0.66280014261-0.44290012078-0.22300098950310077130.22320055300.44330033480.
10、66340011650.883500-10171.1土地成本变化NPV(10%)振幅514197-0.43613337-0.35712477-0.26811616-0.17910756-0.0910989501190350.091281750.171373140.261464540.351555940.43容积率变化NPV(10%)振幅0.252081-0.790.337096-0.280.37989500.4111950.210.5175930.78项目变化温度NPV(10%)-10%28.6销售价格10%19763-10%16443土建成本10%3348-10%10756土地成本10%90
11、35-10%7096容积率10%11995 从上述图表可看出，销售能否顺利完成是项目的关键之处，经核算，10年内销售必须达到90%以上，项目才能达到盈亏平衡点（NPV=0）。对投资收益直接影响最大的是销售的价格，其次为开发成本。接下来是建筑面积和土地费用，相比而言前期投入对于投资回报的影响较小。七、结论与建议:1. 经上述综合分析，“六朝皇家公园别墅”项目可行。至2012年，房地产项目累计净现值2.2亿元左右。2. 本项目的市场风险为最大的风险，具体表现为市场销售率、商品房销售价格与商品房成本三个方面。建议项目之初应开展市场调研与市场挖掘，提早锁定目标客户群。3. 本项目成功与否，能否起到“四
12、两拨千金”，即以较少资金投入获得较大利润的作用，关键在于2004年一期房产开发是否成功，其资金的回笼决定了前期投入资金的多少和风险的大小。4. 按照基准表计算，盈亏平衡点的土地挂牌竞标价格为21万/亩。5. 争取更多政府优惠政策和扶持，用无偿划地、抵押贷款的方式，可以大大减少前期资金投入，降低风险。6. 旅游项目与大学项目可作为营销策略和手段，带动房地产服务。房产项目可利用真山真水和大学人文景观，成为销售时的卖点与亮点，增加房地产项目的外延价值。Editors note: Judson Jones is a meteorologist, journalist and photographer.
13、 He has freelanced with CNN for four years, covering severe weather from tornadoes to typhoons. Follow him on Twitter: jnjonesjr (CNN) - I will always wonder what it was like to huddle around a shortwave radio and through the crackling static from space hear the faint beeps of the worlds first satel
14、lite - Sputnik. I also missed watching Neil Armstrong step foot on the moon and the first space shuttle take off for the stars. Those events were way before my time.As a kid, I was fascinated with what goes on in the sky, and when NASA pulled the plug on the shuttle program I was heartbroken. Yet th
15、e privatized space race has renewed my childhood dreams to reach for the stars.As a meteorologist, Ive still seen many important weather and space events, but right now, if you were sitting next to me, youd hear my foot tapping rapidly under my desk. Im anxious for the next one: a space capsule hang
16、ing from a crane in the New Mexico desert.Its like the set for a George Lucas movie floating to the edge of space.You and I will have the chance to watch a man take a leap into an unimaginable free fall from the edge of space - live.The (lack of) air up there Watch man jump from 96,000 feet Tuesday,
17、 I sat at work glued to the live stream of the Red Bull Stratos Mission. I watched the balloons positioned at different altitudes in the sky to test the winds, knowing that if they would just line up in a vertical straight line we would be go for launch.I feel this mission was created for me because
18、 I am also a journalist and a photographer, but above all I live for taking a leap of faith - the feeling of pushing the envelope into uncharted territory.The guy who is going to do this, Felix Baumgartner, must have that same feeling, at a level I will never reach. However, it did not stop me from
19、feeling his pain when a gust of swirling wind kicked up and twisted the partially filled balloon that would take him to the upper end of our atmosphere. As soon as the 40-acre balloon, with skin no thicker than a dry cleaning bag, scraped the ground I knew it was over.How claustrophobia almost groun
20、ded supersonic skydiverWith each twist, you could see the wrinkles of disappointment on the face of the current record holder and capcom (capsule communications), Col. Joe Kittinger. He hung his head low in mission control as he told Baumgartner the disappointing news: Mission aborted.The supersonic
21、 descent could happen as early as Sunday.The weather plays an important role in this mission. Starting at the ground, conditions have to be very calm - winds less than 2 mph, with no precipitation or humidity and limited cloud cover. The balloon, with capsule attached, will move through the lower le
22、vel of the atmosphere (the troposphere) where our day-to-day weather lives. It will climb higher than the tip of Mount Everest (5.5 miles/8.85 kilometers), drifting even higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airliners (5.6 miles/9.17 kilometers) and into the stratosphere. As he crosses the
23、 boundary layer (called the tropopause), he can expect a lot of turbulence.The balloon will slowly drift to the edge of space at 120,000 feet (22.7 miles/36.53 kilometers). Here, Fearless Felix will unclip. He will roll back the door.Then, I would assume, he will slowly step out onto something resem
24、bling an Olympic diving platform.Below, the Earth becomes the concrete bottom of a swimming pool that he wants to land on, but not too hard. Still, hell be traveling fast, so despite the distance, it will not be like diving into the deep end of a pool. It will be like he is diving into the shallow e
25、nd.Skydiver preps for the big jumpWhen he jumps, he is expected to reach the speed of sound - 690 mph (1,110 kph) - in less than 40 seconds. Like hitting the top of the water, he will begin to slow as he approaches the more dense air closer to Earth. But this will not be enough to stop him completel
26、y.If he goes too fast or spins out of control, he has a stabilization parachute that can be deployed to slow him down. His team hopes its not needed. Instead, he plans to deploy his 270-square-foot (25-square-meter) main chute at an altitude of around 5,000 feet (1,524 meters).In order to deploy thi
27、s chute successfully, he will have to slow to 172 mph (277 kph). He will have a reserve parachute that will open automatically if he loses consciousness at mach speeds.Even if everything goes as planned, it wont. Baumgartner still will free fall at a speed that would cause you and me to pass out, an
28、d no parachute is guaranteed to work higher than 25,000 feet (7,620 meters).It might not be the moon, but Kittinger free fell from 102,800 feet in 1960 - at the dawn of an infamous space race that captured the hearts of many. Baumgartner will attempt to break that record, a feat that boggles the mind. This is one of those monumental moments I will always remember, because there is no way Id miss this.
