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1、(1)中国和东盟形成产业内互补的关系在2003年，中国与马来西亚具有产业内互补关系的双边贸易额为65.87亿美元，占两国双边贸易总额的32.73%。中国与泰国具有产业内互补关系的双边贸易额为60.10亿美元，占两国双边贸易总额的47.49%。中国与菲律宾具有产业内互补关系的双边贸易额为7.79亿美元，占两国双边贸易总额的8.28%0中国与印度尼西亚具有产业内互补关系的双边贸易额为37.07亿美元，占两国双边贸易总额的36.24%。产业内互补已经在中国与东盟的双边贸易中占有重要的地位，尤其是中国与泰国己经接近以产业内互补为主。(2)机械及运输设备类产品在具有产业内互补关系的产品中占有很大比重在具
2、有产业内互补关系的产品中，机械及运输设备类产品(SITC7 )占有很大比重。例如，中国与马来西亚在动力机械及设备(SITC71)、特种工业专用机械(SITC72 )、金工机械(SITC73 )、通用机械设备及零件(SITC74 )、办公用机械及自动数据处理设备(SITC75)和电信及声音的录制及重放设备(SITC76)等6种机械及运输设备类产品上处于产业内互补状态，其进出口额合计为49.65亿美元，占中国与马来西亚具有产业内互补关系的双边贸易额的比重为75.38%。中国与泰国在动力机械及设备、金工机械、通用机械设备及零件、办公用机械及自动数据处理设备和电信及声音的录制及重放设备等5种机械及运输
3、设备类产品上处于产业内互补状态，其进出口额合计为39.45亿美元，占中国与泰国具有产业内互补关系的双边贸易额的比重为65.64%。中国与菲律宾在动力机械及设备、特种工业专用机械、金工机械和电信及声音的录制及重放设备等4种机械及运输设备类产品上处于产业内互补状态，其进出口额合计为5.05亿美元，占中国与菲律宾具有产业内互补关系的双边贸易额的比重为 64.83%。中国与印度尼西亚则在电力机械、器具及电气零件(SITC77)这1种机械及运输设备类产品上处于产业内互补状态，其进出口额合计为5.79亿美元，占中国与印度尼西亚具有产业内互补关系的双边贸易额的比重为15.62%。(3)中国在劳动密集型产品竞
4、争力较强，资本和技术密集型产品竞争力较弱中国在劳动密集型的杂项制品(SITC8 )方面具有很强的竞争力，同时在资本和技术含量较高的电力机械、器具及电气零件(SITC77)方面竞争力较弱。例如，在与东盟4国的双边贸易中，中国均在家具及其零件(SITC82 ),旅行用品、手提包及类似品(SITC83 )、服装及衣着附件(SITC84)和鞋靴(SITC85 )等杂项制品方面具有很强的竞争优势。而在电力机械、器具及电气零件方面，中国与马来西亚、泰国和菲律宾双边贸易的TSC值分别为0.79、0.58和一0.74，处于明显的竞争劣势地位。该产品的双边贸易额分别高达73.55, 20.13和46.95亿美元
5、，占中国与马来西亚、泰国和菲律宾双边贸易额的比重分别为36.54%,15.91%和49.95%。(4)农产品以及自然资源密集型初级产品方面具有较强的产业间互补关系中国与东盟4国在农产品以及自然资源密集型初级产品方面具有较强的产业间互补关系。例如，中国在食品及主要供食用的活动物(SITCO )此类农产品方面对马来西亚具有竞争优势，同时在非食用原料(SITC2 )、矿物燃料、润滑油及有关原料(SITC3 )和动植物油、脂及蜡(SITC4)等初级产品方面具有竞争劣势。中国在食品及主要供食用的活动物、非食用原料以及矿物燃料、润滑油及有关原料等初级产品方面均对泰国具有竞争劣势。中国在食品及主要供食用的活
6、动物和非食用原料方面对菲律宾具有竞争优势，同时在动植物油、脂及蜡方面具有竞争劣势。中国在食品及主要供食用的活动物此类农产品方面对印度尼西亚具有一定的竞争优势，同时在非食用原料、矿物燃料、润滑油及有关原料以及动植物油、脂及蜡等初级产品方面具有明显的竞争劣势。(5)食品和劳动密集型工业制成品方面具有较强的产业内互补关系。中国与东盟在一些食品和劳动密集型工业制成品方面具有较强的产业内互补关系。例如，中国与马来西亚在杂项食品(SITC09 )、皮革、皮革制品及蹂毛皮(SITC61)和纸、纸浆、纸板及其制品(SITC64 )方面具有产业内互补关系。中国与泰国在鱼、甲壳及软体类动物及其制品(SITC03
7、)、咖啡、茶、可可、调味料及其制品(SITC07 )、杂项食品和纺纱、织物及有关产品(SITC65 )方面具有产业内互补关系。中国与菲律宾在蔬菜及水果(SITC05)及纸、纸浆、纸板及其制品方面具有产业内互补关系。中国与印度尼西亚则在鱼、甲壳及软体类动物及其制品、咖啡、茶、可可、调味料及其制品、杂项食品、皮革、皮革制品及蹂毛皮和纺纱、织物及有关产品方面具有产业内互补关系。2.中国与东盟主要国家双边贸易互补的原因对于中国与东盟在自然资源密集型初级产品方面的产业间互补这一点，比较容易理解。其主要原因在于中国与东盟的资源察赋差异。众所周知，中国在许多重要的自然资源(例如石油、铁矿)方面的人均拥有量远
8、远低于世界平均水平，随着经济的快速发展，中国对此类自然资源的需求不断增长。相对而言，东盟拥有较丰富的自然资源。因此，中国与东盟在自然资源密集型初级产品方面就具有产业间互补的基础。(1)消费需求的相似性和重叠性。根据林德尔(Linder)的相似需求理论，具有相似购买力水平和产品消费偏好的国家之间会产生产业内贸易。尽管林德尔的相似需求理论主要是用来解释购买力水平很高的发达国家之间产生产业内贸易的原因，但是购买力水平相对较低的发展中国家之间也可能产生相似的消费需求和产品偏好(只不过是较低层次的相似需求和产品偏好)，从而产生产业内贸易和产业内互补。就中国与东盟这个典型的例证来看，相似的文化背景和消费习
9、惯对双方的产业内贸易和产业内互补具有重要的影响。文化的相近是一种特殊的资源，厂商可籍此出口合乎邻国消费者需求的产品，例如服装和食品等。(2)中国与东盟的产业水平分工。技术经济的理论认为，工业化水平越高，产业分工就越密切，经济联系就越紧密。随着工业化水平的提高，再加上较大规模地参与工业制成品、尤其是机械及运输设备类产品的国际分工，中国与东盟之间的产业水平分工不断细化，异质产品的供给能力不断提升，从而促进了中国与东盟在工业制成品、尤其是机械及运输设备方面的产业内贸易和产业内互补。由于中国与东盟资本和技术要素的快速积累，再加上国际直接投资所推动的生产要素的直接和间接跨国流动，以上各国生产要素结构的差
10、异将趋于缩小。基于同种生产要素使用的国际分工就会发展起来，逐步实现由生产要素结构差异主导的双边贸易，向生产要素使用效率主导的双边贸易过渡。中国与东盟正处于这种转变的初期。经历了亚洲金融风暴的洗礼后，各国正重新调整其产业结构，实现向高附加值产业的升级。这种新型的国际分工将给中国与东盟的双边贸易带来更多的机遇。(3)国际产业转移和跨国公司的区域一体化经营战略。如前所述，中国与东盟所处的环南中国海地区是国际产业转移和集聚的热点地区，而国际产业转移和集聚又是通过国际直接投资来实现的。统计资料显示，中国与东盟均吸引了大量外国直接投资、尤其是跨国公司的直接投资。以上各国的许多产业就是由外资直接建立起来的，
11、特别是新兴的机械与电子产业在其建立和发展过程中深受外资的影响。在国际产业转移和集聚的初期，为了减少生产和经营成本、就近取材和销售，以实现利润最大化，跨国公司往往将同一种产品同时在中国与东盟进行布局，也就是说，跨国公司同时在中国及东盟4国中生产同一种产品并分别满足当地市场的需求。随着国际分工的深化和生产成本的变动，跨国公司开始整合在中国及东盟4国的国际直接投资，进行区域一体化经营。也就是说，跨国公司仅在每一个国家专业化生产一种具体的产品，甚至在中国及东盟之间开展同一种产品内的零部件生产分工(或者同一种产品不同生产工序之间的分工)，然后在中国与东盟4国之间开展各种产品的相互交换。跨国公司此时在中国
12、及东盟生产的产品已经不再是分别满足当地市场的需求，而是同时满足整个环南中国海地区市场的需求。跨国公司区域一体化生产和经营网络的形成对中国与东盟之间的产业内贸易和产业内互补产生了重要影响。中国和东盟国家经济的相似性和竞争性3.1中国区域经济发展的不平衡制约自由贸易区的发展。中国的东部地区和中西部地区之间发展差距较大,而与东盟成员国接壤的恰恰是经济发展水平相对落后的广西、云南等西南省区。这些地区以资源型产品和劳动密集型产品为主，与东盟的一些国家存在着明显的竞争。如果处理不好，会使中国的欠发达地区与东盟国家产生恶性竞争。3.2自贸区内各国都实施以外向型经济为主的发展战略自贸区内各国都实施以外向型经济
13、为主的发展战略，都以欧美和日本为主要出口市场，从而使双方经济结构与产业发展大致相似、出口产品也大致雷同。因此，双方在彼此的市场上存在着较大的竞争。同时，自贸区内各国在发展经济，吸引投资方面也存在着激烈竞争的情况，这些竞争关系如果在自贸区内得不到很好的理顺，就容易诱发双方在经贸交往中竞争无序甚至恶性竞争。3.3双方之间的激烈的竞争实际上是一种低技术含量产品的价格竞争，是一种低水平的竞争。这种低水平竞争非但不能提高效率，反而会对效率产生负面影响 。价格竞争首先导致出口产品价格下降，进而使得贸易条件恶化。这又使得国内 企业 的效益下降，可用于科研、技术改造、产品创新的资金减少。从而产品技术含量得不到
14、提高，缺乏特色的问题 也无法解决，最后为了扩大出口，不得不仍旧采用价格竞争的方式。从而二者在国外市场的低水平竞争更加激烈，双方贸易条件都发生恶化。不仅如此，如果一味采用价格竞争的手段，还会面临国外反倾销制裁的危险。同时，在发达国家越来越高的“绿色壁垒”面前，如果不提高产品技术含量，即使不被反倾销制裁，也很难打入国外市场。低水平的竞争只会使双方都遭受很大的损失，而不会对本国福利和竞争力产生促进作用。竞争的越激烈，对双方的损害也就越大。1) China and ASEAN form complementary relationships within the industry In 2003, C
15、hina and Malaysia have a complementary relationship within the industry bilateral trade amounted to 6.587 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 32.73% of total bilateral trade between the two countries. Within the industry between China and Thailand complementary relationship with bilateral trade amo
16、unted to 6.01 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 47.49% of total bilateral trade between the two countries. China and the Philippines have a complementary relationship within the industry bilateral trade amounted to 779 million U.S. dollars, accounting for 8.28% of total bilateral trade between Ch
17、ina and Indonesia 0 complementary relationship with bilateral trade within the industry amounted to 3.707 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for the total bilateral trade between the two countries of 36.24%). Complementarity within the industry has been the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN play
18、s an important role in, especially China and Thailand have been close to industry, mainly within the complement. (2) machinery and transport equipment products in a complementary relationship within the industry occupies a large proportion of products In a complementary relationship within the indus
19、try products, machinery and transport equipment products (SITC7) occupies a large proportion. For example, China and Malaysia in the power machinery and equipment (SITC71), Special Industry Machinery (SITC72), metalworking machinery (SITC73), general machinery equipment and spare parts (SITC74), off
20、ice machines and automatic data processing equipment (SITC75) and telecommunications and sound recording and playback devices (SITC76) and other six kinds of machinery and transport equipment category within the complementary products in the industry, the state, its total import and export volume wa
21、s 4.965 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for China and Malaysia have a complementary relationship within the industrys trade volume accounted for 75.38%. China and Thailand in the power machinery and equipment, metalworking machinery, general machinery equipment and spare parts, office machines and
22、automatic data processing equipment and telecommunications and sound recording and playback devices such as five kinds of machinery and transport equipment category within the complementary products in the industry state, its total import and export volume was 3.945 billion U.S. dollars, accounting
23、for China and Thailand have a complementary relationship within the industry of the bilateral trade volume accounted for 65.64%. China and the Philippines in the power machinery and equipment, special industry-specific machinery, metalworking machinery, and telecommunications and sound recording and
24、 playback devices such as four kinds of machinery and transport equipment category within the complementary products in the industry, the state, its total import and export volume was 505 million U.S. dollars, accounting for within the industry between China and the Philippines, a complementary rela
25、tionship with bilateral trade volume accounted for 64.83%. China and Indonesia in the electrical machinery, appliances and electrical parts thereof (SITC77) This one kind of machinery and transport equipment category within the complementary products in the industry, the state, its total import and
26、export volume was 579 million U.S. dollars, accounting for China and Indonesia have a complementary relationship within the industry The bilateral trade volume accounted for 15.62%. (3) more competitive in the labor-intensive products, capital and technology intensive products less competitive China
27、s labor-intensive miscellaneous manufactured articles (SITC8) has a strong competitive edge, while higher levels of capital and technology of power machinery, appliances and electrical parts thereof (SITC77) are less competitive terms. For example, in bilateral trade with ASEAN 4 countries, the Chin
28、ese are in the furniture and parts thereof (SITC82), travel goods, handbags and the like (SITC83), clothing and clothing accessories (SITC84) and footwear (SITC85) and other miscellaneous product has strong competitive advantages. In electrical machinery, appliances and electrical parts, China and M
29、alaysia, Thailand and the Philippines bilateral trade TSC values were -0.79, -0.58 and a 0.74, at a distinct competitive disadvantage. The bilateral trade volume of the product were as high as 73.55, 20.13 and 4.695 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for China and Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippine
30、s, the proportion of bilateral trade volume was 36.54%, 15.91% and 49.95%. (4) agricultural and natural resource-intensive primary products industry has a strong complementary relationship between China and ASEAN 4 countries in the agricultural and natural resource intensive commodities among indust
31、ries has a strong complementary relationship. For example, China and major food animals for human consumption (SITCO) of such agricultural products have a competitive advantage for Malaysia, while non-food raw materials (SITC2), mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC3) and animal and
32、vegetable oils, grease and wax (SITC4) and other primary products have a competitive disadvantage. Chinas main food and live animals for food, non-food raw materials and mineral fuel, lubricants and related materials and other primary products have a competitive disadvantage in Thailand. Chinas main
33、 food and live animals for food and non-food raw materials, the Philippines has a competitive advantage, while animal and vegetable oils, grease and wax has a competitive disadvantage. Chinas main food and live animals for human consumption of such agricultural products in Indonesia has a competitiv
34、e advantage, while non-food raw materials, mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials as well as animal and vegetable oils, grease and wax and other primary products has obvious competitive disadvantage. (5) food and labor-intensive manufactured goods has a strong complementary relationship wit
35、hin the industry. China and ASEAN in a number of food and labor-intensive manufactured goods has a strong complementary relationship within the industry. For example, China and Malaysia in the miscellaneous foods (SITC09), leather, leather products and trample fur (SITC61) and paper, pulp, cardboard
36、 and goods (SITC64) has a complementary relationship within the industry. China and Thailand in the fish, crustaceans and molluscs and their products (SITC03), coffee, tea, cocoa, spices and their products (SITC07), miscellaneous food and yarn, fabrics and related products (SITC65) has within the co
37、mplementary industry relations. China and the Philippines in vegetables and fruits (SITC05) and paper, pulp, cardboard and goods has a complementary relationship within the industry. China and Indonesia in the fish, crustaceans and molluscs and its products, coffee, tea, cocoa, spices and its produc
38、ts, miscellaneous food, leather, fur and leather products and trample yarn, fabrics and related products within the industry with complementary relations. 2. Bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries complement the main reasons for For China and ASEAN in the natural resource-intensive primar
39、y products between the complementary industries that are relatively easy to understand. The main reason is the resources of China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations police Fu difference. As we all know, China in many important natural resources (such as oil, iron ore) area per capita is
40、much lower than the world average, with the rapid economic development, Chinas growing demand for such natural resources. In contrast, ASEAN has abundant natural resources. Therefore, China and ASEAN in the natural resource-intensive primary products, with the industry on the basis of inter-compleme
41、ntary. (1) consumer demand, the similarities and overlap. According to Lindel (Linder) similar demand theory, with similar consumer preferences and product purchasing power between countries that produce intra-industry trade. Despite the similarity Rindel demand theory is mainly used to explain the
42、high level of purchasing power generated industry trade between developed reasons, but the relatively low purchasing power among developing countries may also have similar needs and product preferences of consumer (just like the lower-level needs and product preferences), resulting in intra-industry
43、 trade and industrial complementarity. China and ASEAN on a typical example of this view, a similar cultural background and spending habits on both sides of industry within the complementarity of trade and industry has an important influence. Similar culture is a special kind of resources, companies
44、 can export out of neighboring countries to take consumer demand products such as clothing and food. (2) the level of China-ASEAN industrial division of labor. Technical and economic theory suggests that the higher level of industrialization, division of labor more closely, the more close economic t
45、ies. As the level of industrialization, coupled with large-scale participation of industrial products, especially machinery and transport equipment products in the international division of labor, between China and ASEAN continue to refine the division of labor industry level, the ability to supply
46、differentiated products rising, so as to promote China and ASEAN in the industrial products, especially machinery and transport equipment industry within the complementarity of trade and industry. As capital and technology between China and ASEAN rapid accumulation of elements, together with the int
47、ernational direct investment to promote the production of direct and indirect elements of cross-border movement of factors of production structure of each of these countries will tend to narrow the differences. Use the same kinds of factors of production based on the international division of labor
48、will be developed and gradually led by the differences in factor structure of bilateral trade, factors of production efficiency led to the bilateral trade transition. China and ASEAN is in the early stages of this transformation. Experienced the Asian financial turmoil, countries are re-adjusting it
49、s industrial structure to achieve high value-added industries to upgrade. The new international division of labor between China and ASEAN trade will bring more opportunities. (3) the transfer of international industries and multinational business strategy of regional integration. As mentioned above, China and the ASEAN region in which the South China Sea is an international industry transfer and concentration of hot spots, while the international industry transfer and concentra
