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1、,Ecological Footprint&Ecological Carrying Capacity,1,“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors,we borrow it from our children”Haida proverb(with Kenyan,Chinese,&other Amerindian variants),1、两个关键术语,生态足迹Ecological footprint 生态承载力Ecological carrying capacity,Population/Environment principles,I=P
2、x A x T Impact=Population*Affluence*Technology(Ehrlich and Holdren)Affluence includes consumption,waste and pollutionTechnology includes systems of providing water,food,shelter,energy,etc.Overpopulation occurs when:When people exceed the carrying capacity of an area.Too many people,at a given level
3、of affluence and technology,deplete the resources that support life and economies,andWhen they introduce more wastes than the environment can handle.,2、What is the Ecological Footprint?,The Ecological Footprint measures how much nature we have,how much we use,and who uses it.The ecological footprint
4、 is an environmental accounting tool that is comprehensive,yet as an indicator relatively simple and easy to understand,It shows us how much biologically productive land and water a population(an individual,an organization,a city,a country,or all of humanity)requires to support current levels of con
5、sumption and waste production,using prevailing technology.it translates data for the consumption of energy and material resources into the equivalent area of biologically productive habitat that would be required to offset their useit reveals the relative environmental effect of lifestyle choices,Wh
6、at is the Ecological Footprint?,Bioproductive segments,18%Biologically Productive Land,11%Deserts,Ice Caps and Barren Land,67%Low-ProductivityOcean,4%BiologicallyProductive Ocean,22%,Measuring Footprints,Consider a commonly used item,such as a environmental textbookmeasuring its ecological footprint
7、 would involve calculating the area of bio-productive land necessary to offset the energy and materials used to in its production,distribution,and eventual discarding,including:paper and inkcomputers and printersvehicles,fossil fuels,and bookstoresfor instance,we can determine the number of hectares
8、 of forest needed to provide the paper to produce the book,and to provide an equivalent amount of wood-energy to offset the fossil fuels used in production,distribution,and disposalexamining the diverse ways that materials and energy are used to create a product,such as a book,is an excellent way to
9、 become aware of hidden costs and environmental impacts,National Footprints,The size of a national ecological footprint depends upon four major factors:Population sizeStandard of living per capita consumption of energy and material resources,and of manufactured goods,food,and spaceper capita product
10、ion of wasteTechnology being used this affects the efficiency of energy and material usageIssues related to social equityinequities among social groups in lifestyle intensity(and poverty)aspirations of people to have a higher intensity of lifestyle,How it works(1),In general,the Ecological Footprint
11、 measures resource consumption of human activities across the whole lifecycle of a product or service and converts this to the amount of land needed to supply the resources consumed and assimilate the waste generated.Ecological Footprint accounts for our global nature of our economy by capturing the
12、 impact of imports and exports.The Ecological Footprint does not account for hazardous impacts of products such as the impact of dioxins released in the atmosphere,nor does it measure water usage against water availability.,How it works(2),The Footprint tool does,however,measure the land required to
13、 eliminate Carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions and the impact of the energy required to provide the water we consume.Ecological Footprint accounts calculate humanitys demand on nature in specific,understandable terms,using official government statistics.The accounts are helping hundreds of individuals,busi
14、nesses,governments and sustainability practitioners around the world to more effectively manage the earths ecological assets and move society toward a sustainable,What does the Ecological Footprint tell us?,Humanitys Ecological Footprint can be illustrated in numbers of planets,where one planet equa
15、ls the total bio-capacity of the Earth in any one year.Since the late 1980s,we have been in overshoot:currently the Ecological Footprint exceeds the Earths bio-capacity by about 30%，which means that we currently need about 1.3 planets to meet our average resource consumption levels(2004).In other wo
16、rds,it now takes about one year and four months for the Earth to regenerate what we use in a single year.,Change of Ecological footprint,Why calculate your Footprint?,Measuring our Ecological Footprint can help us identify what contributes the most to our Footprint,and how resources could be used mo
17、re efficiently in order to secure our own wellbeing,as well as that of the rest of humankind and the planet-both now and in the future.Calculating the Ecological Footprint for yourself,your household,office,school,shop or event helps to identify the environmental impacts of everyday activities and c
18、apture progress towards more sustainable practices.The results of your Ecological Footprint may even motivate you to make a few changes to your lifestyle that will help to achieve reduced Ecological Footprints.,你的生态足迹是多少？,消费与生活质量？吃多少？吃什么？中国食物消费和请客习惯，日本及其他国家？出行，轿车OR公共交通？自行车？你能为可持续发展做什么？学术研究可持续消费,小轿车、
19、公共汽车、自行车所需面积对比,National Footprints,The size of a national ecological footprint depends upon four major factors:Population sizeStandard of living per capita consumption of energy and material resources,and of manufactured goods,food,and spaceper capita production of wasteTechnology being used this af
20、fects the efficiency of energy and material usageIssues related to social equityinequities among social groups in lifestyle intensity(and poverty)aspirations of people to have a higher intensity of lifestyle,Ecological Footprints of Countries,ecological footprint(Gha/person),中国环境与发展国际合作委员会和WWF日前共同发布
21、了中国生态足迹报告指出，自从二十世纪60年代以来，中国的人均生态足迹持续增长了约两倍。作为一个国家，中国消耗了全球生物承载力的15%，中国消耗的资源已超过自身生态系统所能提供资源的两倍。报告指出，中国的人均生态足迹是1.6全球公顷，也就是说，平均每人需要1.6公顷具有生态生产力的土地来满足其生活方式的需要。中国的人均生态足迹在147个国家中列第69位。,data for 34 countries ranging in GDP and footprint from relatively low(e.g.,Bangladesh)to high(e.g.,Canada,U.S.A.),Per Cap
22、ita Footprint and GDP,The per capita ecological footprint is closely related,in a statistical sense,to the per-capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)of a national economy,ecological footprint(Gha/person),GDP($US),2010年GDP中国:6.05万亿美美国：14.1万亿美元日本:5.5万亿美元,data for 34 countries ranging in energy use from re
23、latively low(e.g.,Bangladesh)to high(e.g.,Canada,U.S.A.),The per capita ecological footprint is also closely related to the per capita energy consumption,including both non-renewable and potentially renewable sources,Per Capita Footprint and Energy Consumption,ecological footprint(Gha/person),energy
24、 use(tons oe/person.yr),data for 34 countries ranging in food consumption and ecological footprint,The per capita ecological footprint is not so closely related to per-capita food consumption,which has a much greater subsistence basis than does either GDP or energy usage.Because food consumption is
25、a basic human demand,it is relatively similar among countries.,Per Capita Footprint and Food Consumption,food(kcal/person.day),ecological footprint(Gha/person),3、Ecological Carrying Capacity,The maximum population of a given organism that a particular environment can sustain indefinitely,at a given
26、level of resource availability,affluence and technology.May change,up or down,in response to changes of affluence(consumption,waste and pollution)or of technology(mechanisms that provide and use resources).Assumes stability without environmental damage.May be modified to improve environmental potent
27、ial,or may be damaged by unwise resource or pollution practices.,Eco-capacity,The ability of a country to satisfy the demands of its ecological footprint,also known as its eco-capacity,depends upon:the national area of accessible,ecologically productive land and waterthe relative productivity of tha
28、t habitatthe intensity of management activities used in agriculture,forestry,hunting,and other resource-related sectorshow much natural habitat is protected in ways that preclude its intensive use by humans(e.g.,in parks)resource degradation caused by over-harvesting,pollution,climate change,and oth
29、er factorsresource and economic instabilities associated with natural disasters and societal conflicts,including war,地球上每一秒发生什么？What happens every second on earth?,2.4 个新生儿28.6 吨金属、4 台电视、1.3 辆汽车.商品贸易额US$240,000二氧化碳排放 762 吨消失的森林面积0.6 公顷增加的沙漠面积78 m2,1900,2100,2003,2050,outcome：four earths in 2100,S sh
30、aped population curve-SUSTAINABLE,Starts small Accelerates to rapid growth phase Levels off to approach carrying capacity May fluctuate,but remains stable indefinitely,or until variables change to establish new carrying capacity,Pop.,Time,Carrying capacity,Carrying Capacity Patterns:,Developed count
31、ries,especially in Europe approach it Some US states are exceptions,far exceeding carrying capacity Can change to unsustainable for a time due to any of the adverse factors characteristic of“J”nations and regions,BUT can be put back on sustainable course by sound policies,sound choices,sound practic
32、es,Carrying Capacity Patterns:,S shaped population curve-SUSTAINABLE 温哥华的移民政策,Carrying Capacity Patterns:,Starts small Accelerates exponentially Peaks far above carrying capacity Collapses to new,much lower carrying capacity,Pop.,Time,Original carrying capacity,New carrying capacity,J shaped populat
33、ion curve UNSUSTAINABLE,Carrying Capacity Patterns:,Typical of many undeveloped countriesOften occurs regionally due to:agricultural system collapse,food shortage persistent natural disasters poor environmental management(desertification,deforestation,soil erosion,pollution,etc.)rapid shift of popul
34、ation from rural to urban areas,J shaped population curve UNSUSTAINABLE,Chinas Development Constraints,Population PressureDiminishing ResourcesIncreasing PollutionCompetitiveness in global marketsI=P*A*T,沙漠化中的中国 Desertization in China,煤矸石山,尾矿成灾,矸石山、尾矿河Gangue,金属废弃物Metal wastes,建筑垃圾Construction wastes
35、,建筑垃圾与金属废弃物,河流、空气污染与固体废物境,中国式的毁田烧砖把生存的土地都破坏了,毁田烧砖的景象Crop field,北京Beijing,水污染,return,思考？,中国的人口承载力应该为多少？如何看独生子女政策？你的建议？,4、Ecological Overshoot,Global Footprint Global Bio-capacityAn enormous human population(6.5 billion)+Intensive resource consumption=Resource depletion+Environmental degradation(pollu
36、tion,damage to biodiversity,societal inequities)=Ecological Overshoot,4、Ecological Overshoot,The average global Ecological Footprint is 2.7 global hectares per person,while there are only 1.6 hectares of biologically productive area per person available on the planet.This is called overshoot.Much li
37、ke spending more money than you earn,it is possible to exceed ecological limits for a while,but this deficit spending leads to the destruction of ecological assets on which our economy depends,such as depleted groundwater,collapsing fisheries,Carbon dioxide(CO2),accumulation in the atmosphere,and de
38、forestation.,Earth and Its Biosphere,ultimately,bio-capacity is set by the limits of the biosphere to support the human enterpriseEarths surface area is 51 billion haonly 15 B ha are terrestrialonly 10 B ha are economically“productive”at the current human population,there is only 1.6 ha of bio-produ
39、ctive space available per global citizen(but without any reservation of habitat for nature)this space must service all biospheric needs,including those of other species and natural ecosystems,In 2008,the Earth went into Overshoot on Tuesday 23 September the day we started using all the resources nat
40、ure will generate this year.,Ecological Overshoot,Global Footprint Global Bio-capacityecological overshoot has been the case since at least 1980at the global level,there is a 40%overshootbut it is 62%,if 12%of global space is used to conserve biodiversityan overshoot can only be temporarily maintain
41、ed,because natural capital becomes depleted and degradedclearly,Earth is being over-used by humansexamples supporting this view include:deforestation,erosion,exhaustion of fish stocks,increase of CO2 and other greenhouse gases,groundwater depletion,and extinctions&endangermentecological overshoot is
42、 dangerous,particularly if it is used to try to maintain continued economic growththere are,however,sustainable alternatives to the potential catastrophes associated with ecological overshoot,Ecological Overshoot,The main contributor to overshoot is carbon dioxide emissions.We are emitting this gree
43、nhouse gas faster than the planet can re-absorb it,so it is building up in the atmosphere contributing to climate change.While climate change may represent the most alarming symptom of overshoot,it also offers the greatest opportunity for change;virtually every action we take to reduce climate chang
44、e also reduces overshoot,and vice versa.,Ecological Overshoot,Earth Overshoot means that we are reducing the ability of the earths land and water to support humans and other species into the future.If we conquer climate change without depleting other natural assets,we can rebalance our Earth budget.
45、,Sustainability and Overshoot,The ecological footprint of a country may exceed the eco-capacity available within its boundaries,resulting in a national“ecological deficit”the country may suffer a degradation of its resource stocks and of environmental qualitymore commonly,there is an attempt to offs
46、et the national overshoot by importing goods and services from other countriesthis may be considered equivalent to“exporting”the resource depletion and environmental damage,ecological footprint and bio-capacity(ha/person),Countries with an Ecological Deficit,ecological footprint and bio-capacity(ha/
47、person),Countries with an Ecological“Surplus,A Canadian Footprint,Examining the factors contributing to the ecological footprint of an“average”Canadian helps to clarify the degree to which our lifestyle choices affect the environment.These data(ha/person)are based on a study of the Canadian footprin
48、t by Wackernagel and Rees(1996).,1988-2007年辽宁省人均生态足迹(EF)、人均生态承载力(EC)、生态赤字(ED)变化趋势,张晶晶,胡晓钧*,杨继松.辽宁省生态足迹动态变化分析，安徽农业科学,2010,38(29):16407-16409,16494,1998-2007年辽宁省人均生态足迹构成,1998-2007年辽宁省万元GDP生态足迹变化趋势,丁祖荣，李 静，杭州市生态足迹计算模型与生态足迹分析，中国城市经济,2010年 10期,杭州市人均生态足迹构成变化情况,杭州市人均生态承载力构成变化情况,杭州市人均生态赤字,The Canadian and C
49、hina Footprint,Canada:the calculated footprint of an“average”Canadian is 6.4 Gha/personthe eco-capacity within the borders of Canada affords 14.4 ha/personthis leaves an ecological“surplus”of 8.0 ha/person,assuming the current population and lifestyle are maintainedGlobal:the global average footprin
50、t is 2.2 ha/personthe global bio-capacity affords 1.8 ha/personand so,there is an ecological“deficit”of 0.4 ha/personthis suggests that humans are living beyond the bio-capacity of Earth and its biosphere,China:1.6 Gha/person0.8Gha/personthis leaves an ecological“deficit”of 0.8 ha/person,1900,2100,2
