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1、0,Before classOur objective and methodology,Objective:Understand what Guesstimation isHow to get the answerHow to present the answerBe a masterOur method:ConversationQuestion leadWe do it together,1,IntroductionWhat is Guesstimation?,Guesstimation is more than market sizingGuesstimation is to get a
2、general quantitative idea of a target with common sense,2,Real work,Market sizing to drive business decisions,5_85,3,IntroductionHow to get the answer in real work?,Highest level:check the value-chainRaw material suppliers-Manufacturers-Distributors/Retailers-End CustomersIn real work without dataCo
3、ld call or in-depth interviewsLit research,4,IntroductionWhat is the role of Guesstimation in case interview?,Back of the envelope questionNo data,no internet,no questions Will be given as:A single case or part of a caseBrain teaser questions,5,IntroductionWhy do Guesstimation in the case interview?
4、,To test:Common senseBusiness senseAnalytical capability CalculationCommunication to describe and summarize Comfort in real work,6,How to get the answerThe methodology,Have a try,How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?,7,How to get the answerThe methodology,Clarify the question Land
5、ing/departing Domestic/international Laying out the structure#of passengers=#of planes landing per day x#of passengers per planeDeep dive on each element#of planes landing per day=#of runways x#of planes landing on each runway per day#of planes landing on each runway per day=#of hours airport operat
6、es for landing per day/time taken for a plane to landProbe for info/hints or come up with assumptions using common sense zero defect calculation Sanity check Review assumptions for sensitivity check,How many passengers is Pudong airport handling each day?,8,How to get the answerTips,1.Ask for 30 sec
7、onds to 1 minute upfront to gather your thoughts2.Round your answers to calculation-friendly numbers3.When making assumptions,use calculation-friendly numbers/percentages(e.g.age groups 0-20 etc.)4.Clearly label units5.Avoid numerical ranges as they complicate the solution6.Use a“sniff test”or“sanit
8、y-check”the validity of each calculation7.Its ok to communicate doubts and mistakes with the interviewer8.Interpret interviewer body language9.Communicate each step clearly and concisely,and your thinking process10.Dont overcomplicate the solution simple is super11.Try to offer multiple appraoches,9
9、,How to get the answerCase in group,On average,how much does each cigarette smoked by a heavy smoker shorten his or her life expectancy?,10,How to get the answerCase in group,How many liters of house paint are sold in the UK annually?,11,How to get the answerCase in group,How many gas stations are t
10、here in Shanghai?,12,How to get the answerIs there any pattern in such questions?,Top down/bottom upCommon segmentation dimensions Age,gender,income,season,penetration,utilizationYou can always further breakdown by thinking about Process,value chain,highly correlated variables,13,How to present the
11、answerFace to face case,Estimate the daily revenue of a Starbucks in Xintiandi?,14,How to present the answerFace to face case,How many rounds of golf are played annually in the U.S.?,15,How to present the answerFace to face case,How many bottles of cokes are sold in China annually?,16,How to present the answerFace to face case,17,How to present the answerFace to face case,How many taxis are there in Shanghai?,18,Thank you!,谢谢！,供娄浪颓蓝辣袄驹靴锯澜互慌仲写绎衰斡染圾明将呆则孰盆瘸砒腥悉漠堑脊髓灰质炎(讲课2019)脊髓灰质炎(讲课2019),供娄浪颓蓝辣袄驹靴锯澜互慌仲写绎衰斡染圾明将呆则孰盆瘸砒腥悉漠堑脊髓灰质炎(讲课2019)脊髓灰质炎(讲课2019),
