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1、Critical Reasoning,Peter Pan,A000002股票在明天还会上涨,到今天为止，A000002股票出现三天连续上涨,该股票出现三天连涨后，第四天也会上涨,Premise,Conclusion,Assumption,Assumption,Premise,Conclusion,Critical ReasoningArgument Structure,Critical ReasoningArgument Structure,A000002股票在明天还会上涨,到今天为止，A000002股票出现三天连续上涨,根据数据统计，该股票出现三天连涨后，第四天有80%的情况都是上涨。,这段
2、时间该股票的运行情况和以前第四天出现上涨的情况相似,中国股市从来没有规律,Critical ReasoningArgument Structure,Studying regularly is one factor that has been shown to improve ones performance on the SAT.Melissa took the SAT and Scored a 1500.If she studies several times a weak,Melissa can expect to improve her score.,Melissa can expect
3、 to improve her score.,Studying regularly is one factor that has been shown to improve ones performance on the SAT.,Melissa took the SAT and Scored a 1500.,Studying several times a weak qualifies as studying regularly,Assumption,Premise,Conclusion,Critical ReasoningFind the Premise,stated pieces of
4、information or evidence that generally provide support for the given conclusioncould be Facts,opinions,claimsshowing backgroundtelling a story,Several industries have recently switched at least partly from older technologies powered by fossil fuels to new technologies powered by electricity.It is th
5、us evident that less fossil fuel is being used as a result of the operations of these industries than would have been used if these industries had retained their older technologies.,Critical ReasoningCommon Signal Word,Premise,Conclusion,Assumption,Therefore,As a result,Suggests,Indicates,Accordingl
6、y,So,Consequently,Thus,Hence,It follows that,SinceDue toAs a result ofBecauseGiven thatAs,Manager:the new manufacturing process should save us time in the end,even though the first step of the five-step process will take twice as long asit does under the old process.Far fewer of the components will
7、be founddefective and the sole purpose of steps two and three under the old processis to weed out defective components.As a result,we should be able to eliminate two of the five steps in the existing manufacturing process.Which of the following would be most useful in evaluating the claim made inthe
8、 argument?,Therefore Test(1)X,therefore Y.If this works,Y is the conclusion.(2)Y,therefore X.If this works,X is the conclusion.,Critical ReasoningFind the Conclusion,X:The new process should save us time.Y:we should be able to eliminate two of the five steps in the process.,Critical ReasoningDraw th
9、e Conclusion,紧跟前提条件,Curbing government spending has been demonstrated to raise the value of a countrys currency over time.However,many economists no longer recommend this policy.A currency of lesser value causes a countrys exports to be more competitive in the international market,encouraging domest
10、ic industries and making the economy more attractive to foreign investment.The statements above most strongly support which of the following inferences?,(A)Limited government spending can also lead to a reduction in the national deficit.(B)Curbing government spending can make a countrys exports less
11、 competitive.(C)Many economists now recommend higher levels of government spending.(D)An increase in the value of a currency will result in reduced government spending.(E)Competitive exports indicate a-weak currency.,Critical ReasoningDraw the Conclusion,Curbing government spending has been demonstr
12、ated to raise the value of a countrys currency over time.However,many economists no longer recommend this policy.A currency of lesser value causes a countrys exports to be more competitive in the international market,encouraging domestic industries and making the economy more attractive to foreign i
13、nvestment.The statements above most strongly support which of the following inferences?,(A)Limited government spending can also lead to a reduction in the national deficit.(B)Curbing government spending can make a countrys exports less competitive.(C)Many economists now recommend higher levels of go
14、vernment spending.(D)An increase in the value of a currency will result in reduced government spending.(E)Competitive exports indicate a weak currency.F）Government investment can make a countrys exports less competitive.,超出前提讨论范围,超出前提讨论范围,偷换概念,因果倒置,因果倒置,Increases in the level of high-density lipopro
15、tein(HDL)in the human bloodstream lower bloodstream-cholesterol levels by increasing the body capacity to rid itself of excess cholesterol.Levels of HDL in the bloodstream of some individuals are significantly increased by a program of regular exercise and weight reduction.Which of the following can
16、 be correctly inferred from the statements above?Individuals who are underweight do not run any risk of developing high level of cholesterol in the bloodstream.Individuals who do not exercise regularly have a high risk of developing high level of cholesterol in the bloodstream late in life.Exercise
17、and weight reduction are the most effective methods of lowering bloodstream cholesterol levels in humans.A program of regular exercise and weight reduction lowers cholesterol levels in the bloodstream of some individuals.Only regular exercise is necessary to decrease cholesterol levels in the bloods
18、tream of individuals of average weight.,Critical ReasoningDraw the Conclusion,The average fuel efficiency of vehicles sold nationwide during the period 2000-2004 was 25 miles per gallon;the corresponding figure during the period 1995-1999 was 20 miles per gallon.The national average price of gasolin
19、e during the period 2000-2004 was$2 per gallon;the corresponding figure during the period 1995-1999 was$1.60 per gallon.The statements above,if true,best support which of the following conclusions?(A)The average fuel efficiency of vehicles sold nationwide should reach 30 miles per gallon for the per
20、iod 2005-2009.(B)The national average price of gasoline during 1997 was lower than the corresponding price during 2003.(C)Rising gasoline prices lead consumers to purchase more fuel-efficient cars.(D)Between the two described time periods,the national average fuel efficiency and the national average
21、 gasoline price both increased at roughly the same rate.(E)Consumers spent more money on gasoline during the period 2060-2004 than during the period 1995-1999.,Critical ReasoningDraw the Conclusion,Logic fallacies,Critical ReasoningDraw the Conclusion,In certain congested urban areas,commuters who u
22、se public transportationoptions,such as trains and subways,spend approximately 25 percent lesstime in transit,on average,to reach their destinations than commuters whotravel by car.Even individuals who drive their entire commute in carpoollanes,which are typically the least congested sections of roa
23、dways,stillspend more time,on average,than commuters who use trains and subways.The statements above,if true,best support which of the following assertions about commuting in the congested urban areas mentioned above?,(A)Waiting in traffic accounts for approximately 25 percent of the commuting time
24、for individuals who drive to their destinations.(8)Walking between a subway or train station and ones final destination does not,on average,take longer than walking between ones car and ones final destination.(C)Using carpool lanes does not,on average,reduce driving time by morethan 25 percent.(D)In
25、dividuals who commute via public buses spend approximately 25 percent more time in transit than those who commute using public trains or subways.(E)Subways and trains are available in the majority of congested urban areas.,Critical ReasoningDraw the Conclusion,Critical ReasoningFind the Assumption,(
26、A)Viewers are more interested in sports and weather than in personal interest stories.(B)The programming content of Nighttime News is more closely aligned with the interests of the overall audience than is the content of World News.(C)Some World News viewers liked the new Nighttime News programming
27、better than they liked the World News programming.(D)There are other possible causes for an increase in the number of viewers of Nighttime News,including a recent ad campaign that aired on many local affiliates.(E)The quality of World News will remain constant even if Nighttime News improves.,For se
28、veral years,Nighttime News attracted fewer viewers than World News,which broadcasts its show at the same time as Nighttime News.Recently,the producers of Nighttime News added personal interest stories andincreased coverage of sports and weather.The two programs now have aroughly equal number of view
29、ers.Clearly,the recent programming changespersuaded viewers to switch from World News to Nighttime News.Which of the following is an assumption on which the author relies?,(1)bridge a gap between any premise and the conclusion,and(2)support/strengthen/validate the conclusion.,Critical ReasoningFind
30、the Assumption,Premise,Conclusion,Assumption,The local university recently hired a new soccer coach.Although she has several years worth of coaching experience and is a diligent student of the game,she was never a member of a collegiate soccer team.For this reason,the new coach will be unable to bui
31、ld a successful program.The argument above is based on which of the following assumptions?(A)The local university should have hired a former collegiate soccer player as its new coach.(B)Coaching experience is one of the most crucial factors for coaching success.(C)The previous coach at the universit
32、y was dismissed due to her lack of success(D)To build a successful soccer program as a coach,one must be a former collegiate soccer player.(E)The university does not plan to provide the new coach with the resources necessary to build a successful program.,Critical ReasoningFind the Assumption,紧跟结论，不
33、能转移话题重心,紧跟结论,When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession,people tend to spendless money on discretionary purchases.Therefore,the perceived threat ofrecession decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that theyregard as optional or luxury goods.The argument above assumes that _
34、(A)there are more luxury goods available after a recession is forecast(B)recently,the threat of recession has been increasingly publicized as newsperiodicals have grown more pervasive(C)most people do not regularly read news periodicals(D)peoples perception of the threat of recession increases when
35、newsperiodicals begin forecasting a recession(E)the people who spent the most money before a recession was forecastwere among those who curtailed their spending after the recession becameapparent,Critical ReasoningFind the Assumption,Critical ReasoningFind the Assumption,紧跟结论,Premise,Conclusion,Assu
36、mption,News periodicals publish the forecast of a recession,People spend less money on discretionary items,Therefore,the perceived threat causes people to spend less money,As a result,peoples perception of the threat of a recession increases,As a result,peoples perception of the threat of a recessio
37、n does not increases,Negating any correct assumption will destroy the argument,Critical ReasoningFind the Assumption,紧跟结论,Sam is currently the deputy mayor of Geneva County.Therefore,Sam should be the next mayor of Geneva when the current mayor retiresWhich of the following is an assumption on which
38、 the author relies?Imagine two possible answer choices:(A)Sam is the most honest person in the whole county.(B)The deputy mayor is always the best person to become the next mayor when a current mayor retires.,Sam is NOT NECESSARILY the most honest person in the whole county.,The deputy mayor is NOT
39、NECESSARILY the best person to become the next mayor when a current mayor retires.,Always.only.all:insert Not necessarily.or Some.not in place of All.(B)Tomatoes are always red.LEN:Tomatoes are NOT NECESSARILY always red.Never.none,not one.not once:change to At least one or at least once.(D)Not one
40、player was late for practice.LEN:AT LEAST ONE player was late for practice.Some,a few,several:change to No or None.(Notice that this may sound extreme)(A)Some cats purr when you pet them.LEN:NO cats purr when you pet them.Sometimes,on Occasion,often:change to Never.(Notice that this may sound extrem
41、e)(A)Cats sometimes purr when you pet them.LEN:Cats NEVER purr when you pet them.At least,at most.more than,less than:change to the mathematically opposite term.(C)She has at least three different job offers.LEN:She has LESS THAN THREE different job offers.,Critical ReasoningFind the Assumption,Crit
42、ical ReasoningFind the Assumption,紧跟结论,For several years,Nighttime News attracted fewer viewers than World News,which broadcasts its show at the same time as Nighttime News Recently,the producers of Nighttime News added personal interest stories andincreased coverage of sports and weather.The two pr
43、ograms now have aroughly equal number of viewers.Clearly,the recent programming changespersuaded viewers to switch from World News to Nighttime News.Which of the following is an assumption on which the author relies?,(A)Viewers are more interested in sports and weather than in personal interest stor
44、ies.(B)The programming content of Nighttime News is more closely aligned with the interests of the overall audience than is the content of World News.(C)Some World News viewers liked the new Nighttime News programming better than they liked the World News programming.(0)There are other possible caus
45、es for an increase in the number of viewers of Nighttime News,including a recent ad campaign that aired on many local affiliates.(E)The quality of World News will remain constant even if Nighttime News improves.,Assumptions can serve to fill in a logic gapAssumptions can establish the feasibility of
46、 the premises of the argumentAssumptions can eliminate alternate paths to reach a given conclusion,Critical ReasoningFind the Assumption,Categories of Assumption,Sidneys get-rich-quick scheme is sure to succeed.He will buy undervalued properties in foreclosure.Then he will resell the properties to a
47、 local real estate developer and generate large profits.,Undervalued properties exist in foreclosure and easily can be found and purchased by Sidney.,Assumptions can serve to fill in a logic gapAssumptions can establish the feasibility of the premises of the argumentAssumptions can eliminate alterna
48、te paths to reach a given conclusionAssumptions can eliminate alternate causes for a given conclusion.,Critical ReasoningFind the Assumption,Categories of Assumption,A magazine published an article proclaiming that one can get a promotion by playing golf with ones boss.Kevin concludes that the best
49、way for him to get promoted is to take golf lessons and join his bosss country club.,There are no other better ways to gain a promotion than to play golf with ones boss.,Assumptions can serve to fill in a logic gapAssumptions can establish the feasibility of the premises of the argumentAssumptions c
50、an eliminate alternate paths to reach a given conclusionAssumptions can eliminate alternate causes for a given conclusion.,Critical ReasoningFind the Assumption,Categories of Assumption,Scientists have discovered that people with Elmers disease have elevatedlevels of elastomer in their blood.,The sc
