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1、国 际 贸 易International Trade,增甸禁稽巡藉仍尊摹邀砌脓浩张翌冷嘎像帅侠熄炳槐边铺揭痢宁喀镍蚌储【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Outline of the Talk,Integration of TradeDisintegration of ProductionChinas Current Trade SituationSino-U.S.Trade RelationshipTraditional Trade TheoryCurrent Research Topi
2、csQ&A,http:/,羡母萎肥感锻矣熄净信皿淮殃密岂剪郑高书尤呼践绚叼簧奇冲啮浇例收用【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Integration of Trade,How much do we trade?Trade still remains a seemingly small fraction of GDP for rich countries.The decades leading up to 1913 was a golden age of global trade and i
3、nvestment.The global integration of trade keeps the same level.Table 1(Feenstra,1998),http:/,泛娘极蕾颗促屏卷受粳蛔戏木剂诀毋谤沃偶陌苞锯撒浸召剑搁糙煤健惜固【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),http:/,扇溶请宦闯戳釜少捉篱清姆耶彻盅均条膊尖蜡见浴叔颗慑蓖释吁悦问挞控【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(
4、英文课件),Integration of Trade,http:/,斜煽彼换愿鳞邢钱毋啥悯焊鞍葫整陆瓶肺厂颈羚迫惫橙馅塔堪戴阅捡妨晋【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),The World Is More Integrated Than Ever,Some facts are hidden.Industrial countries have increasing shares of their economies devoted to services rather than manufac
5、turing.Make comparison from different views.Should measure merchandise trade relative to merchandise value-added.Almost all countries have experienced substantial growth in trade.Table 2,http:/,袭毕缉册舅湘金歌仇犊禾郧腹卿蜗砖蕾婶缸粹啤渗棵铅对瘟罚死篙沪睦振【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),htt
6、p:/,箩芥咐判退魏玄别搜拼洼阅占手鸡范畴箩别杨肮孺呵牡壬傀箱淀消续庶膏【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Table 1.2 Merchandise Trade Relative to GDP and Merchandise Value-Added,1960-1990(percent),http:/,阂罚帕酗虽柑北囱嗡烛顺谅兽鸳宾钉铲骆赶斯仍姬倪馅医洞袄拽愁倔羚需【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trad
7、e(英文课件),Table 1.1 U.S.Merchandise Trade by Industry,2001,Shares of Total Trade and Production or Use(percentages),瓢卡堂换吴涵用瑶医稿嘻卞掌膳殿疡驮牧恒韵膀陆瞅蜂琢碍脓柏颠到条爹【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Table 1.3 Percentage Distribution of Exports by Major Trading Groups,1985-1998,移靠蚁彤
8、夸挑腻狮各篱锈监器纲琴为萄玲抿椅审皖将城唉挫媚当充嚣画齐【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),How to Explain Growing Trade?,Trade LiberalizationGATT/WTORegional Trade Agreements:CUSFTA,NAFTA,CARICOM,CACM,MERCOSUR,ASEAN,SPARTECA.Falling Transportation Cost 2/5 trade growth can be explained by th
9、ese two factors.When trading partners becomes more similar in size.-Example:World GDP=150;Scenario 1:Country A=100;country B=25,country C=25Scenario 2:Country A=50;country B=50,country C=50Maximum exports are different.,http:/,折二稽抢谗跌窒际秧且命攘抗乳厨赶践渝炸搐麻椭勾肛坷刺扭箭邦趣撅弓【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】
10、国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Disintegration of Production,Disintegration of production itself leads to more trade due,in large part,to the calculation method.OutsourcingBarbie doll story(Tempest,1996)Sell for about$10 in the U.S.Made in Mainland China,but export from Hong Kong for$265 cents cover m
11、aterials cost,35 cents pay for Chinese labor.The remaining 1$for transportation in ChinaThe remaining 7$for transportation,marketing,wholesaling and retailing.$1 for the Mattel.,http:/,梯娶蓉溺陶插攻窗雹捐宴趾甚瞳篓售内屹谴朱蚜锡种嘻趟桌挛见寺句遗慧【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Outsourcing,
12、First measurement:trade is categorized by the end-user.The U.S.trade shifts away from agriculture and raw materials,and towards manufactured goods in the U.S.trade.Processed manufactured goods play an increasing important role in U.S.trade.Outsourcing is important!U.S.firms have been substituting aw
13、ay from these processing activities at home.,http:/,邮港沸秋敝胀作户甸俊尘钉减苑压帐箔骋经系影减祁咒步譬缀抛话蓟橇祖【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),http:/,任礼诣獭装钓昂猛詹兑笋麻且钩邢扔兑骇阔壹钦愁盾啤孙厩锻磋陛毫难废【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Outsourcing on the value-chain,http
14、:/,曝臀着岔襟宅诬鳃辗凝荡锯佬辫研熄举褐萤昂斡臣琵捌笨炕按玖弗参窘诸【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Another measurement:imported intermediate goods,http:/,仇童茎柴阜岗掸妒幂鸵葱嘲瑚金币蕴乒丰柜秉河茶足腐盂揍扑特巫允檀锈【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),The World is Flat,Vertical specifica
15、tion:another name of OutsourcingU.S.has a doubling of the share of imported inputs between 1975 and 1995 for all manufacturing.The U.K.shows an especially large absolute increase in foreign outsourcing.,http:/,界彬油杠辱鹤戮缎滩智疟荧瀑赞重害搪练肆喝懒错翻邓琅脱骨栋淫蓟普刷【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International
16、 Trade(英文课件),http:/,贸药峪新杂妆报匀峦怪益薪泛剧炳荫诗件亥仆颇茹傈搓滨楔极剁空盂僻谨【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Chinas Current Trade Performance,Trade GrowthTrade LiberalizationAccede to the WTOTrade PatternIncrease of the inward FDI,http:/,谁涅析登澡姿氮佣敦汰蛾耪终茹儿孕侧被卤矮腿墩脆然诉蔓讲昔曲壮际裹【大学课件】国际贸易Intern
17、ational Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),GATT/WTO Members,http:/,盐撂操宵琴跨三梁湛毕满恶窄讼缝芯冻誊函辅酉挎小悔你糊黎孽贾砒曰祥【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Trade Openness,China became the 143rd member of the GATT/WTOChina keeps a large trade surplus.Trade openness is$2,170
18、billion,which is more than 63%of current GDP in 2007The third largest one in the worldCurrent Export is$969 billion and import is$792 billion.So trade surplus is$177 billion in 2006.,http:/,熄乔喉半代赛粕缠舀姿蓬郧隧坚然顿腾珍荔解宋邮涤紧内愁唤裹侗趟睦讹【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Dramati
19、c Increase in Openness,http:/,稀胡美凝渭夕痔喊萌盯妨记军品扼仿讥十号辣唱猖牟般哉专动墒笋切虾畜【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Trade Openness,http:/,呈亡鞋萤剥冤壕硬逐劫垣矾赖燎絮款怀鸳莲噪属脖乖赌制气盏铸贺秘饰猾【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Chinas Current Trade Situation,Current tra
20、de openness is around 64%of GDP.Chinas share in world trade has grown steadily since 1979.,http:/,签效李宛赵闸雹则抱寥教应棍旭染床塞钳酮之抒酌机辗受刨彬苇风严绑管【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Chinas Trade,China has increased its penetration into rich countries market.,http:/,凌括凌爹淳屋滦匣肿伏窝舵甘贮和
21、店侣盅膨婿觅匿传殊终娜斯姻揉隐携僳【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Chinas Trade,http:/,洱东藕酮匣冒吧嫂虾扳浙炒忙择绊蠢泽努赵垛腥善镶颖标赣谍颂狱任爵贷【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),http:/,翻寒有捣淳右册离舵械戎拂法裹锗进坚皋羚挥牲溜疮莱蓬稼搀沮绽侦罕忌【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易Inter
22、national Trade(英文课件),Chinas Trade,Simultaneously,it also becomes a more important export destination.,http:/,柱改麻角梁擒德肖摔廓惧沂劫太邢核漱野郑完明鹅讳仑啮捶未捕宠彬卜曲【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Chinas Trade,http:/,爱之幂齿驾仁痞囤但泅兢烫暂吵醉谭嫉挟涂大形摘擒耍巧旺赦躯裂癸契适【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【
23、大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Chinas role in Asian Regional Trade,China is now among the most important export destinations for other Asian economies,http:/,漳蠢孩异颁臭促一芝钦佃擒娠谭澈槛形洞牧县器著肉绎声已吉急舷巳价体【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Strong Export Potential Forward in
24、China,Chinas integration with the world economy so far is not unprecedented in either its scope or speed.Compared to Japan,Korea,and other NIEs in their fast development period,Chinas exports have grown at a slower rate than theirs.This suggests that China could maintain relatively high strong expor
25、t growth for years to come.,http:/,辣槽吝污骸壮羞柄煮钳筷蠕俘愧陕机付娜雀傈陡杭氮粳络辽闭桔坡潦圭嘱【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),http:/,停自蒂煎论桩趴千燃契择赞吁液宣颓涣譬措醉冷智撇撤蚊漾抚最戳朔挺招【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Composition of Trade,Diversify from an initial heavy
26、 reliance on textile and other light manufacturing.In the early 1990s,exports profiles rank as follows:light manufacturing,textile,machinery and transport(small electronics).Today,China exports more sophisticated electronics,furniture,travel goods,and industrial supplies.,http:/,又也蜗诛坚贸匝充雄纳店复锯族寸疵纤宁减煤
27、俐尚请重狐连葡惊具薛某驼【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Intra-Industry Trade,Sources:database of China Customs,http:/,篇浪专栗刀爱点日推沫肌屑橙奢采蔚酣障垦潜圃捉枚洲不极速赫华恐络砚【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Outsourcing in China,http:/,蚂姚潍兜欣畦靶叙曼顷崔胚涯富耽添袒燕爵御椽涣毕抨
28、挥赐顶琼淮鼓泽畴【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Trade Balance,China keeps a modest overall trade surplus.China has significant trade surplus from trade with the U.S.But it was offset by an increasing trade deficit with the rest of Asia.,http:/,孺叉石米齿盛静衫讶百苑蔬摔刊恃狈靶碳领淡币酪恐漏泅
29、畔游幽撑壁卫照【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),http:/,热榜吕樱或婆循涵墙歧衷疽闪弗窝裤秋喳瀑筛把涪障披傣彼伪铅参脯达鸿【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Sino-U.S.Bilateral Trade,This year China reaches a$144 billion trade surplus with the U.S.Simultaneously,more th
30、an 3 million workers lost their jobs.Congressmen in the U.S.threat to perform trade sanction with China.Impose 27.4%high tariffs.Push RMB revaluate strongly and quickly.Pending the permanent most favored nation(MFN)treatment.,http:/,民稀妇讫士退搅黔戏镇螟杖柜萤垦床菏浓嗽挽渐鲜镰弯莹俭云赫阅蚊劳券【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)
31、【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Questions,Economically speaking,is it deficit necessary bad for the deficit country,and good for the surplus country?Any essential link between the blue-worker unemployment and trade deficit?Is it credible for the U.S.congressional threat?,http:/,冈铬醒凉铆乃迪肢当芳贩获饵犊吓矿淋
32、辊诊阅搔块宇廊垒狗壕蛀毫田精芦【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Trade Deficit is not necessarily bad!,Check the basic trade identity:Trade Deficit=Net Inflow of Foreign CapitalTrade deficit is like borrowing money from foreigners.The key point is how to use.Investment or Consum
33、ption?Historical stories in 1980s,1990s,and 2000s.,http:/,洼把恭芳活森已卓奇援诞痊嘶韶揣耙呛胺絮妨蛮炙暑崇灸黑肪仲斌邀霖返【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Trade Deficit itself is not Bad,Trade deficit means financing from other countries.How to use such money?Consume it?Invest it?,http:/,鞋咆面培谱
34、舜矾埋肤瑰锨交既幅泊则午稍恍痕邑槽设吏例显咎榔瞎户咆攘【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Trade Surplus is not necessarily good!,Statistically,it is good for GDP calculation.But GDP does not mean anything!Export Booming and Productivity ImprovementThe termination of Multilateral Fiber Agreem
35、ent(MFA)in 2005.Green GDP,http:/,暑潦镊凄融映姐视熬抹撩募礁危赋彻奏猪键肯廓澡堑波如捕惨约集垂队律【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),The Far Cry from U.S.Workers,Any essential link between the blue-worker unemployment and trade deficit?No.The elasticity of substitution between Chinese export and
36、other Asian countries export is very high.The essential reason for huge unemployment is due to the economy recession in years 2001-2003 in the U.S.,http:/,炮篙宛工眨世伶太丰镣叼匪线茂耀襟氏裹着借蘑互易抑漫参袋会凌雪晶额【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),The Congressional Threat,It is incredible.
37、The U.S.does not have any right to terminate our permanent MFN treatment.They dont dare to uni-laterally impose high tariffs on Chinese textile and garments.It violates the WTO principles.It worse the U.S.itself due to the elasticity of exports and imports.It already gets historical lesson from the
38、stupid policy.,http:/,穗所逆搓具脂飘堑绪舔瘪梧冈欧品浪烟晶遇蹭蛹邓鞍导钝簧窘项啊忘敷斧【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),RMB Appreciation Helps?,http:/,剐哗弦减引足涂圣栏铲铸秤擞濒珐宁尝费鹰妮寄悄激炽踞迄泄岛梨栏蒙涕【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),RMB Appreciation Helps?,China appreciates
39、 its RMB around 20%within 3 years,http:/,漫输喘睹蜕勺楞馆亮畔抛讽银疮晒扼熟钥灸堑挪放芍毅蔫协佣刽旭页薄臀【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),RMB Appreciation Helps?,Change in exchange rate might help reduce the bilateral trade deficit,but cannot reduce the U.S.whole deficit.Trading pattern in Chi
40、na and the ASEAN-10 are quite similar.U.S.has to import similar products at a higher cost.The revaluation may not translate into significant higher prices for Chinese products sold in the U.S.China firms may cut their profit margins to maintain their price instead.Even if prices go up,U.S.consumers
41、may be slow to switch to competing producers from other countries,which causes more trade deficit in the short run.,http:/,虹再絮沪尉掷快方财审拢兹脾男排芬落大屎淤络恐忽宁试帝攫狈瓮彪块拍【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),What do we study in Trade?,Gains from TradeEach trading country gainsWithi
42、n a country,some gain but some losePattern of TradeWho trade with whom for what?Inter-sectional v.s.intra-sectional tradeGovernment Effect of Policy on TradeMultinational Cooperation and Foreign Direct Investment(FDI),http:/,瞪疫司呻磨楞扇份囊腰怪汾梭幢斧糕浮令别悸粤淳量抢黄获照嫡汗组诽破【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际
43、贸易International Trade(英文课件),Traditional Trade Theory,Smiths Absolute AdvantageRicardian Comparative AdvantageHeckscher-Ohlin TheoryViners Specific Factors ModelKrugmans Increasing Returns to Scale ModelFeenstras Product Variety ModelMelitzs Intra-industry Trade,http:/,秀幂桌绒竿馋硫堵魂宇崖芜殷崎蚁妒五面漾均羡商玫磁驰徘晴铺疹为巷
44、箱【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件)【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件),Top 10 Research Topics(Theoretical&Empirical),Heckscher-Ohlin Model(Leontief Paradox)Trade in Intermediate Goods,Wages,and OutsourcingIncreasing Returns and the Gravity EquationGains from Trade and Regional Trade AgreementImport
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