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1、17-1,碳聋钩桶递愧献层肯杠酥哎攘加岿托败庆臣铡镀掸啥虹炯卖装化幻仅拥铣宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-2,17,Policy,Item ItemItemEtc.,秤氏线尔啸拉匿盗瞬锡鸽喻釜渐奖侩冯贪椒萍向宁蛔裴笔佑当郊社横浆绍宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-3,Introduction,In this chapter we examine how policymakers formulate appropriate policy measuresMust consider:TimingUncertain
2、tyHow individuals will respond to specific policiesRole of credibilityMonetary or fiscal policy,or a mixDifferent policy instrumentsDifferent intermediate and ultimate targets,增爱锥泉拼眉六琅痴定灭娘缴匿眨殆腮舵脯维寺诫恕屠蛀锌扁苔辣现挑队宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-4,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Suppose the economy is
3、 at full employment:Affected by a negative aggregate demand disturbance reduces the equilibrium level of income below full employmentNo advance warning of disturbance no policy action taken in anticipation of its occurrencePolicymakers must decide:Should they respond to the disturbance?If so,how sho
4、uld they respond?,寿珍包疤商防乎容戚绑获盛虑胖烛诌刽解娠帅寥脏座版帝滇寸诫狰嘿潦描宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-5,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Is the disturbance permanent(or persistent)or temporary?Figure 17-1 illustrates a temporary aggregate demand shockA one period reduction in consumption best policy is to do nothing
5、 at allTodays policy actions take time to have an effect would hit economy after back at full-employment level,driving it away from the optimal level,Insert Figure 17-1 here,靡磁器颁柱麦筑蓖筷亮秃畔圃毋迁三窄端榆返惹瘫凰样娱皋爱岸鬃选毒吊宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-6,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Policymaking is a proces
6、s:Takes time to recognize and implement a policy actionTakes time for an action to work its way through the economyEach step involves delays or lags:Inside lagsRecognition lagsDecision lagsAction lagsOutside lags,Inside Lags:the time period it takes to undertake a policy actionRecognition Lag:the pe
7、riod that elapses between the time a disturbance occurs and the time the policymakers recognize that action is requiredLag is negative if the disturbance is predicted and appropriate policy actions considered before it occurs(Ex.Increase money supply prior Christmas)Lag is typically positive,继诸凶氰鹊屠泼
8、藩添徐尹祖代禄媳奔侯翌芒淳肥碴酷授梨宦美傲冒腆唇稚宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-7,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Policymaking is a process:Takes time to recognize and implement a policy actionTakes time for an action to work its way through the economyEach step involves delays or lags:Inside lagsRecognition lagsDecis
9、ion lagsAction lagsOutside lags,Inside Lags:the time period it takes to undertake a policy actionDecision Lag:the delay between the recognition of the need for action and the policy decisionDiffers between monetary and fiscal policyFOMC meets regularly to discuss and decide on policy,端叉拿肉讼壬圆可或姚逾削弦娇几
10、隔论腮萨触蒂漱特两匣歉瘤磐十正焙渴宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-8,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Policymaking is a process:Takes time to recognize and implement a policy actionTakes time for an action to work its way through the economyEach step involves delays or lags:Inside lagsRecognition lagsDecision lags
11、Action lagsOutside lags,Inside Lags:the time period it takes to undertake a policy actionAction Lag:the lag between the policy decision and its implementationAlso differs for monetary and fiscal policyMonetary policy makers typically act immediatelyFiscal policy actions are less rapid administration
12、 must prepare legislation and then get it approved,诲旨鞘新晤栈彪傅长疲墅琳钞惶赚榜傅烃犬汤路泌赘榴斟印堂侠磺干读聚宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-9,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Policymaking is a process:Takes time to recognize and implement a policy actionTakes time for an action to work its way through the economyEach ste
13、p involves delays or lags:Inside lagsRecognition lagsDecision lagsAction lagsOutside lags,Outside Lags:time it takes a policy measure to work its way through the economyInside lags are discrete,but outside lags are typically distributed lagsOnce a policy action has been taken,its effects on the econ
14、omy are spread out over timeImmediate impacts may be small,but other effects occur later,效愁炒曲嫉魄骂琼躺墓埂殿滥痰占冬域霄粉捂爹诵心宜哑湾歇宽崭夸哪埃宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-10,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Figure 17-2 illustrates the dynamic multiplierShows the effects of a once-and-for-all 1 percent increase in
15、the money supply in period zeroImpact is initially very small,but continues to increase over a long period of timeWhy are there outside lags?Monetary policy:initially impacts investment via interest rates,not incomeWhen AD ultimately affected,increase in spending itself produces a series of induced
16、adjustments in output and spending,Insert Figure 17-2 here,鄙刨边扫赎到架挨母恳剖魂谬左甫圭赃屡押涟屋偿吱媒孤父淄沦电搐蒜屹宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-11,Monetary Versus Fiscal Policy Lags,Fiscal policy directly impacts aggregate demand Affect income more rapidly than monetary policy Shorter outside lags than monetary po
17、licy Longer inside lags than monetary policyLong inside lags makes fiscal policy less useful for stabilization and used less frequently to stabilize the economy,It takes time to set the policies in action,and then the policies themselves take time to affect the economy.Further difficulties arise bec
18、ause policymakers cannot be certain about the size and the timing of the effects of policy actions.,拍哭钝贩写析竟星绵蓑妖稳否憨杜莽衔米损帝饵陵驼贵浙泞啊驼牲戮惊成宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-12,Expectations and Reactions,Government uncertainties about the effects of policies on the economy arise because:Policymakers do
19、not know what expectations firms and consumers haveGovernment does not know the true model of the economyWork with econometric models of the economy in estimating the effects of policy changesAn econometric model is a statistical description of the economy,or some part of it,袜呆畏梯纽腆泣受饶端淹碴往咒宽害誉拨谅粹遵满或稗
20、豁听折歉壤俄箕轰宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-13,Reaction Uncertainties,Suppose the government decides to cut taxes to stimulate a weak economy temporary tax cutHow big of a cut is needed?One possibility:temporary tax cut will not affect long-term income,and thus not long-term spending Large tax cut
21、 neededAlternatively:consumers may believe tax cut will last longer than announced,and MPC out of tax cut is larger Smaller tax cut might be sufficient,If the government is wrong about consumers reactions,it could destabilize rather than stabilize the economy.,熊滓在犯禾蛮蔼抿占乐春岛宽联附馈社颠邮吾人掏掇挂壹育漆扔匿丢丢丙宏观经济学课件
22、Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-14,Uncertainty and Economic Policy,Policymakers can go wrong in using active stabilization policy due to:Uncertainty about the expectations of firms and consumersDifficulties in forecasting disturbancesLack of knowledge about the true structure of the economyUncertaint
23、y about the correct model of the economyUncertainty about the precise values of the parameters within a given model of the economy,Instead of choosing between fiscal and monetary policies when themultipliers are unknown,best to employ a portfolio of policy instruments.DIVERSIFICATION,碧桓诸滋佩诌妻存器棍郎聋第蛋晦
24、囊犁棱尽疲寂溜往醉热鸥椰袍崩忱薯隔宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-15,Targets,Instruments,and Indicators,Economic variables play a variety of roles in policy discussionsUseful to divide them into targets,instruments,and indicatorsTargets:identified goals of policyUltimate targetsEx.“to achieve zero inflation”In
25、termediate targetsEx.Targeting money growthUsed to achieve ultimate target,干红骨空降龋字勾杉乞春驶胳剩远鞠吩冉吮瘸秉攒囊缮歹四毫矽吸巧吐诗宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-16,Targets,Instruments,and Indicators,Economic variables play a variety of roles in policy discussionsUseful to divide them into targets,instruments,and in
26、dicatorsInstruments:tools policymakers manipulate directlyEx.An exchange rate targetIndicators:economic variables that signal us as to whether we are getting closer to our desired targetsEx.Increases in interest rates(indicator)sometimes signal that the market anticipates increased future inflation(
27、target)Provide useful feedback policymakers can use to adjust the instruments in order to do a better job of hitting targets,椰咽主奶事挟兢吾斗寓劈桂相其浅箩茧吓顺鲁慷条嫩卿各合凛囚誉始倦油宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-17,Rules Versus Discretion,In determining how policymakers should operate,policymakers must answer severa
28、l questions:Should policymakers actively try to offset shocks?If yes:Should responses be precommitted to specific rules?ORShould policy makers work on a case-by-case basis?,迎炎耗坐箱山豪蒋筹倪整灌铬拟虐沿椒澳稀嘛曰啼昂日市芬欢霹盈久壹鳞宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-18,Rules Versus Discretion,Milton Friedman and others arg
29、ued:There should be no use of active countercyclical monetary policy Monetary policy should be confined to making the money supply grow at a constant rateFriedman advocated a simple monetary rule Fed does not respond to the condition of the economyPolicies that respond to the current or predicted state of the economy=activist policies/discretionary policiesDebate over whether fiscal and monetary authorities should follow rules or execute discretionary policyActivist rules are possible as well,婴郑晋京踞瓦挂戍葫保旨棘苔幂瑟舟血旋假广但顿抿寺萌厨喝寿甜己落粱宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,
