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1、五、混合能源模型(Mixed Energy Model)描述：对能源系统(从能源的开采、转化、运输、市场到最终能源需求的模拟，通过系统仿真来预测各部门 能源的供应能力、能源价格、需求量以及宏观经济参数，从而为国家制定能源战略和决策提供信息支持， 因此既包括自顶向下的宏观经济模型，又包括自底向上的能源供应、需求模型。这类模型是对整个能源-经济-环境系统的模拟和仿真，是一个复杂巨系统。研究范围多是全球的、区域的或 国家的，结构上也多是包括经济、供应、转化、需求、环境等模块的综合集成模型。目前中国的应用及研 究相对较少，由于模型涉及的技术和领域非常广泛，所以必须有足够的、专业的研究人员和时间做保证，
2、 才能完成这项复杂的系统工程。代表性的混合能源模型是美国能源部(DOE)开发的NEMS模型和奥地利国际应用系统分析研究所(the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis，IIASA)与世界能源委员会(the World Energy Council， WEC) 合作开发的IIASA-WEC E3模型。表4典型综合模型的特点典型模型开发单位研究方法优点缺点NEMSEIA/DOE ofAmerica线性规划理 论;非线性规 划理论;混合 整数规划方 法;计量经济 学方法综合了上述两种模型的优点，既充分 考虑技术选择的成本，又考虑了价
3、格 弹性的作用，是对整个能源系统的模 拟和分析;便于进行更详尽的能源经 济分析;研究范围多是全球的、区域 或国家的；功能比较齐全，结构比较 复杂，是对现实能源系统进行模拟和 仿真的复杂巨系统数据获取比较 困难IIASA-WEC E3IIASA and WECPRIMESJOULE/EUPOLESMIDAS1. NEMS最具代表性的混合能源模型是NEMS (National Energy Modeling Systems)模型，由美国EIA/DOE于1993年开 发的能源经济区域模型。NEMS综合考虑了宏观经济、财政因素、世界能源市场、资源可获得性和成本、 行为和技术选择标准、能源技术的成本和运
4、行特性以及人口统计资料，反应了能源的生产、进口、转化、 消费以及价格的情况。但从文献上看，用“NEMS模型”当做关键词在期刊网上检索，没有一篇文献。(1) NEMS的功能EIA把NEMS用来模拟在美国能源政策和能源市场上不同假设下的能源、经济、环境以及安全之间的影响。 NEMS通过制定能源产品的生产、转换、消费的经济决策，清晰地描述了美国国内能源市场，同时NEMS 还描述了能源技术。利用NEMS模拟的能源情况，例如2009年度能源展望(Annual Energy Outlook 2009，AEO2009)预测 到2030年的能源情况。NEMS能用于检验新的能源项目和政策的影响。NEMS提供了一
5、套细致地描述美国能源系统里复杂的相 互作用的框架，并且它对各种可替代的假设和政策以及政策积极性进行了回应。NEMS也用于为政府提供一系列指定情景下的特殊分析。如：Impacts of a 25-Percent Renewable Electricity Standard as Proposed in the American Clean Energy and Security Act requested by Senator Markey。NEMS可分析与能源生产、使用有关的法律法规(现行的、巳提议的)能源生产、转换、消费技术的改进所带来的潜在影响温室气体控制的影响和成本；使用可再生能源的影响
6、；提高能源使用效率的潜力；使用可选择的燃料的法规的影响。(2) NEMS模型结构和主要模块NEMS的整体数据结构对各模块之间的信息流进行协调和沟通，数据通过常用的界面传入整合模块。整体 数据结构包括：能源市场价格和消费、宏观经济变量、能源产品、交通、转换信息和模型控制变量、参数、 假设。NEMS从国际能源市场、宏观经济、能源转换、供给、需求等方面建立了 13个模块，每个模块之间紧密联 系。SupplyDemandFue5s ModuleCommerciaDemandModuleResidentialDentand ModulCoal MarkeEModdleTrartspartatonDema
7、nd ModulendustnafDemand ModuleNatural GasTransmissicwiand DistfmulionModu eSupply ModuleMacros oonofTiic Actively ModuleInternational Energy Module_cIntegratingModule(3)模型主要假设NEMS的模块使用许多假设和数据来描述未来美国能源的生产、转换、消费。影响能源市场的主要因素有 两个：经济增长、原油价格The AEO2009使用了五种不同的情景进行分析：基准情景，高经济增长，低经济增长，高原油价格，低原 油价格。除了这五种主要情景
8、，AEO2009还有其他34种假设(用于探测NEMS个别模块的主要假设改变带 来的影响)，这些情景中大多是由于新技术或者技术改进造成的。2. IIASA-WEC E3 模型IIASA-WEC E3(the IIASA-WEC Energy Economic Environment)模型是 IIASA 和 WEC 于 20 世纪 90 年代开发的动态 线性规划的能源-经济-环境模型，由 SCENARIO GENERATOR Model、RAINS Model、MESSAGE Model、 MACROModel、BLS Model、MAGICC Model、GCMModel 和 Soft-Link
9、ing and Scenario Definitionand Evaluation 组成。它是以连续的、相互独立的情景分析方式，研究受不确定性因素影响的未来社会能源技术的一系列 可能的发展状况。IIASA-WEC E3模型把世界划分为11个地区，分3种情景(高速经济增长和技术进步、中速 经济增长和技术进步、社会生态学的情景)研究了未来社会、经济和能源技术的发展。每个实施情景的内在 的影响因素为人口和经济的增长、能源强度、技术进步、主要能源的资源基础，情景间的区别主要体现在 能源、经济和环境的相互关系上，所有情景都是基于相同的人口假设。3. PRIMES 模型PRIMES (Price Indu
10、cing Model of the Energy System )模型是欧盟 TEEM 计划的 JOULE-III研究组从 1993 发的 部分均衡模型。主要侧重于对影响能源供求改革的市场相关机制和关于技术在市场中渗透背景的研究。对 能源供应的研究模型采用由底向上的研究方法，对能源需求的研究采用由顶向下的方法，模型也适用于能 源政策分析，以及能源政策和技术评价关系的研究。研究组首先对欧共体现行的能源相关政策、经济增长 速度、经济膨胀比率、人口增长以及对石油、天然气和煤炭的价格作了一系列假设。4. POLESPOLES(Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energ
11、ySystems)模型是欧盟 TEEM 计划的 JOULE 研究组 20 世纪 90 年 代研究开发的基于能源供求的动态优化模型，是由多个相互连接的子模块构成的多层嵌套的能源经济模型。 它的一个主要特点是对油气资源的发现和发展过程的仿真。广义上来说，油气的供需和价格受国际油气总 储量、钻井能力和剩余储量，以及地区和世界的R/P比率的影响。模型描述了全球不同地区能源需求、供 应和价格的协调发展。Patrick Criqui等应用POLES模型评价了在承担京都议定书减排义务的国家和发展中国家实行碳排放权交易 政策的经济潜力Patrick Criqui等应用POLES-ASPEN模型研究了欧盟实行碳
12、排放权交易制度面临的政策选择 问题。5. MIDAS 模型MIDAS (Multinational Integrated Demand and Supply)模型是欧盟 JOULE 研究组 20 世纪 80 年代末 90 年代初开 发的能源经济模型。它主要用来研究长期的能源规划和预测，通过综合的过程分析和计量经济学方程实现 了能源系统的动态仿真。模型采用自顶向下的建模方法描述能源需求，采用自底向上的方法描述能源供应， MIDAS包括了整个能源系统和安全，模型的输出结果是一系列时间序列的能源平衡表，以及各部门的能源 价格、成本和污染物排放量。6. IPAC-E 模型IPAC-E模型的目标是对中国
13、在全球环境下，未来各种长期温室气体排放趋势下可能采取的政策措施进行评 价。基于这个目标，模型被开发形成一个全球温室气体排放模型。模型将全世界划分为九个主要区域：美 国、西欧和加拿大，其他OECD国家、东欧地区、中国、中东国家、其他亚洲国家、非洲和南美洲。模型 分析的时间区间从1990年到2100年共110年，2050年以前每五年一个时间段，2050年以后，每25年为 一个时间段。IPAC-E全球温室气体排放情景分析模型主要由三个子模型组成，它们分别是社会经济能源子模型、技术经 济能源子模型和农业与土地利用子模型。社会经济能源子模型是在全球长期能源排放模型 (Edmonse-Rilly-Barn
14、s模型，以下简称ERB)的基础上开发而成的ERB模型由美国橡树岭国家实验室于1982 年开发完成，是评估全球长期CO2排放的一个引人注目的工具并被许多研究小组引用。它是一个自顶向下 型的社会经济能源排放模型。技术经济能源子模型则是采用了 AIM终端能源排放模型的框架。AIM终端 能源排放模型是一个依据能源利用技术的市场参与成本来预测未来能源需求与温室气体排放的自底向上型 模型。它是由日本国立环境研究所与日本京都大学合作开发，后由亚太地区中国、印度、韩国、日本等几 个国家的AIM模型项目组共同构造而成的。土地利用子模型是以美国太平洋西北国家实验室(PNNL)开 发的Agriculture-Lan
15、d-Use (AGLU)模型为原形构造而成的。AGLU原为PNNL开发的最新版本的全球气候变 化综合评价微型模型MiniCAM中的一个子模型。主要用于对土地利用所引发的温室气体的排放和商业生物 质能的供应能力进行计算。在MiniCAM中，AGLU巳经与ERB模型相连接，这为我们将其进行改造提供了 便利条件。Fifth, the hybrid Model (Energy Mixed Model)Description: for energy system (from energy extraction, conversion, transportation, market to eventual
16、ly energy demand), through the simulation system simulation to predict departments energy supply ability, energy prices, demand and macroeconomic parameters, thus for the state formulates energy strategy and decision provides information support, therefore includes both the top-down macro economic m
17、odel, and includes the bottom up energy supply, demand model.This kind of model of the whole energy, economy and environment of the system simulation and simulation, it is a complex giant system. Research scope is more global, regional or national, the structure also is more including economic, supp
18、ly, transformation, demand, environment and other modules integrated model. The present Chinas applications and research opposite less, the model involving technology and field is very wide, so there must be sufficient, professional researchers and time doing guarantee, able to finish the complex sy
19、stem engineering.Typical hybrid model is the us department of Energy (DOE) development of NEMS model and Austria International application system Analysis Institute (the International Institute for Applied by telephone under 0120-2714540 order, IIASA) and World Energy Council (the World Energy Counc
20、il, WEC) jointly developed IIASA - WEC E3 model.Table 4 typical characteristics of comprehensive modelTypical modelDevelopment unitsResearch methodsadvantagesfaultsNEMSEIA/DOE ofAmericaLinear programming theory, Nonlinear programming theory;Mixed integer programming method, Econometric methodsIntegr
21、ated with the above two models, which fully consider the advantages of technology choice of cost and considering the price elasticity of the function, is on the whole energy of the system simulation and analysis; For more details of the energy economic analysis, Research scope is more global, region
22、al or national; Functional comparison is complete, the structure is complicated, is to the real energy system is simulated and simulation of complex giant systemData acquisition more difficultIIASA-WEC E3IIASA and WECPRIMESJOULE/EUPOLESMIDASNEMS. 1.The most representative hybrid model is NEMS (Natio
23、nal) model, the Modeling by telephone under 0120-2714540 Energy by American EIA/DOE in 1993, the development of Energy economy zone model. NEMS comprehensive consideration of the macro economic and financial factors, world energy markets, resource availability and cost, behavior and technology selec
24、tion criteria, energy technology cost and operation characteristics and population statistics, the reaction of energy production, import, transformation, consumption and price. But from the literature on look, with NEMS model as a key words in journals online retrieval, without a literature.(1) NEMS
25、 functionNEMS used to simulate the EIA in the U.S. energy policy and energy markets different assumptions about energy, economy, environment and safety between influence. NEMS by formulating energy production, conversion, consumption of economic decision-making, clearly described America domestic en
26、ergy market and NEMS also describes the energy technology. NEMS - using simulated Energy situation such as 2009 Annual Energy Outlook (discuss Energy Outlook 2009, AEO2009) predicts the Energy.-NEMS for testing new energy projects and policy influence. NEMS provides a set of meticulous description o
27、f the U.S. energy system framework of the complex interaction, and it to all sorts of alternative hypothesis and the policy and the policy enthusiasm response.NEMS is also used for the government - provides a series of special situations designated analysis. Such as: a 25 Percent of starvation Renew
28、able Electricity Standard as the Proposed in Clean Energy and Security Act as requested by Senator Markey.-NEMS can be analyzed and energy production, using relevant laws and regulations (current, has proposed)-energy production, conversion, consumption technology improvement brings the potential in
29、fluence-greenhouse gas control effects and cost,-use of renewable energy influence;-improving energy efficiency potential,-use alternative fuel regulations influence.(2) NEMS model structure and main modulesNEMS the whole data structure of each module in the information flows between coordinate and
30、communication, data through the commonly used interface afferent integration module. The whole data structure including: energy market price and consumption, macro economic variables, energy products, transportation, converting information and model control variables and parameters, hypothesis.NEMS
31、from the international energy market and macroeconomic, energy conversion, supply, demand etc established 13 module, each module between closely.SupplyDemandFue5s ModuleCommerciaDemandModuleResidentialDentand ModulCoal MarkeEModdleTrartspartatonDemand ModulendustnafDemand ModuleNatural GasTransmissi
32、cwiand DistfmulionModu eSupply ModuleMacroeconomicActivilyModuleInternationalEnergyModuleIntegratingModule3) model main assumptionsNEMS of module USES many assumptions and data to describe the future U.S. energy production, transform and consumption. Impact energy markets with two major factors: eco
33、nomic growth, crude oil pricesThe AEO2009 use five different scenarios analysis: benchmarking scene, high growth rate, low economic growth, high oil prices, low price of crude oil. In addition to the five key scene, AEO2009 other 34 hypothesis (used to detect the main assumptions NEMS individual mod
34、ule effects of the changes in), these situations are mostly due to new technology or technical improvement, cause.2. IIASA - WEC E3 modelIIASA - WEC E3 (the IIASA - one WEC Energy to) Model is IIASA and WEC in the early 1990s, the dynamic development of linear programming Model of Energy, economy an
35、d Environment, the SCENARIO Model, Model, does RAINS macro Model, Model, MAGICC BLS MACROModel, Model, GCMModel and Soft - Linking and SCENARIO Definitionand Evaluation composition. It is continuous, independent scene analysis method to study by uncertainty factors affect the future social energy te
36、chnology, a series of possible development situation. IIASA - the world WEC E3 model is divided into 11 regional, three scenarios (high economic growth and technical progress, medium-speed economic growth and technical progress, social ecology scene) studies the future social, economic and energy te
37、chnology development. Each implementation situation of the inner factors for demographic and economic growth, energy intensity, technological progress, the main source of energy resources foundation, scene differences are mainly embodied in energy, economic and environmental interrelationship, all t
38、he scene is based on the same population hypothesis.3. PRIMES modelPRIMES (Price Model of the Inducing Energy System) Model is the eu TEEM plan III team from 1993 - JOULE partial equilibrium Model of hair. Mainly focus on energy supply and demand reform affecting the market mechanism and related abo
39、ut technology in market penetration background research. On energy supply research model adopted by bottom up research methods, the research on energy demand by top-down method, the model is also applicable to the energy policy analysis, and energy policy and technology evaluation research of the re
40、lationship. Team first to the European current energy policies, economic growth speed, and economic expansion ratio, population growth, for oil, gas and coal price for a series of hypothesis.4. POLESPOLES (Prospective Outlook on it - term EnergySystems) model is the eu TEEM plan in 1990s JOULE team
41、of research and development based on the energy supply and demand of dynamic optimization model, is composed of multiple interconnected son module composition of multi-layer nested energy economic model.It is one of the main features of oil and gas resources, the discovery and development process si
42、mulation. Broadly speaking, oil and gas in supply and demand and price by international oil and gas reserves total, drilling ability and surplus reserves, and regional and world R/P ratio effects. Model describes the global energy demand different regions, supply and price of coordinated development
43、.And Criqui applications such as POLES model evaluation in bear such emissions that the Kyoto protocol seeks obligation countries and developing the country executes carbon emissions trading policy economic potential. And Criqui applications such as POLES - ASPEN model to study the eu executes carbo
44、n emissions trading system facing the policy choice problem.5. MIDAS modelMIDAS (done) named rest and Multinational group JOULE model is the eu 20th century the late 1980s and early 90s development of energy economic model. It is mainly used to research the long-term energy planning and forecasting,
45、 through integrated process analysis and econometrics equation realized the energy system dynamic simulation. Model using the top-down modeling methods describe energy demand, adopting the bottom up method descriptions energy supply, MIDAS includes the whole energy systems and safety, the output of
46、your model results is a series of time sequence energy balance sheet, and the department of energy price, cost and pollutants.6. IPAC - E modelIPAC - E model for Chinas goal is in the global environment, various long-term future greenhouse gas emissions under the trend likely policy measures are eva
47、luated. Based on this goal, the model has been developed a global greenhouse gas emissions model. Model will the world into nine main area: the United States, Western Europe and Canada, other OECD countries, eastern Europe, China, Middle East countries and other Asian countries, Africa and South Ame
48、rica. Model analysis of time interval from 1990 to 2100 altogether 110 years, by 2050 every five years after a time, by 2050, every 25 years for a time.IPAC - E global greenhouse gas emissions scene analysis model consists mainly of three submodel composition, they were social and economic energy submodel, technical and economic energy submodel and agriculture and land utilization soliton model. (1) social and economic energy soliton model is in long-term global energy discharge model (Edmonse - Rilly - Barns model, hereinafter refer
