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1、产业发展的一般规律,产业系统,产业的成长和扩张是一个系统的扩张，它的运动是一个系统的运动系统是由相互联系、相互作用的诸要素组成的具有一定功能的有机整体。产业系统是由具有同一属性的企业组成的能够提供某种产品或服务的有机整体。一切与产业有关联的其他因素的集合称之为产业系统的环境、而产业系统是通过对社会经济环境的作用来表现其功能的,产业系统,产业系统的环境包括自然界、科技文化、市场状况等。而产业系统的功能就是从环境中接受物质、能量和信息，经过企业的生产和劳动过程，再向环境提供新的物质、能量和信息例如，电力产业作为一个产业系统，其功能就是将外界环境输人的煤炭、水、石油、太阳能、核能等物质、能量、信息经
2、过生产过程的转换，变成电能后再向外界输出。,产业系统的划分,任何系统都既可以分解成许多子系统或更小的系统，也可以与其他系统组合成更大的系统。许多的产业系统组成国民经济大系统，同时，每一个产业系统也可以分解成多个子系统或分系统像制造业系统可以分解为汽车、机床等产业分系统，而每一个分系统又可以按不同标准进一步细分如汽车系统又可分为轻型汽车、重型汽车两个更小的系统。产业系统的这种划分，实际上就是系统的不同层次的区分，这种划分可以满足我们研究不同层次的产业扩张以及产业分化和整合过程的需要产业形成或产业扩张过程中，各个产业实际上就是由低层次向高层次、由简单系统向复杂系统演进的过程。即对单一产业的深入研究
3、，必须细化到每一产业内容的构成和演变。,产业演变,每个产业的发展都有一定的阶段性正如产品有寿命周期一样，产业也有自己的生命周期。但未必有相同的发展趋势（集中和分散）,产业演变研究 主要是通过识别产业的形态（增长或衰退、国际化或地方性、集中或分散）来发现企业可能面对的机遇和威胁。,推动产业演变的基本力量,需求需求：牵动力量，决定性的。需求：总量；发展潜力和前景；需求特性（差异化、档次等）等等60年代西欧摩托车与本田,技术 波特：在众多对产业演变的影响因素中，技术是最重要的因素。CAD、CAM，网络技术,推动产业演变的基本力量,产业系统的形成和演变规律,任何产业系统的形成和演变都既有目的性，又有盲
4、目性，既有有序性，又有无序性产业系统的演变总是朝着一定的方向和趋势演变，并与人类客观存在的需要的变化方向和产业间联系相适应，从而就有可能探讨其发展变化的规律以及预测其演变的趋势产业演变具有不以人的意志为转移的自发性，尤其对某一产业的萌芽和形成的不可预知性，人类就必须承认自身活动能力的局限，承认人类经济需要和产业演变的可变性，从而不会不顾客观规律强制干预产业的产生发展和衰落过程,产业演变阶段的衡量标准,产品与需求之间的关系。产品与技术的成熟程度。产业内竞争及其焦点。竞争强度；竞争规则的确定性；变换的竞争焦点：质量性能、技术、价格、品牌等等。,产业的经济寿命,产业经济寿命，是一个产业从它萌芽、产生
5、到衰退、消失的时间期限，或者说一个产业在国民经济中所存在的时间长短。产业经济寿命是客观存在的。一门产业的存在不仅取决于整个生产力发展水平，而且还取决于社会经济需要的变化、资源的供给状况和它自身的更替能力。如果某种产业不再为社会经济所需要或者它所依赖的资源近于枯竭或者由于新的技术革命和大量新产品群落的出现使原有的系列产品完全过时而遭淘汰那么，这种产业存在的时间不会长久,产业与产品：两种经济寿命的比较,产业的存在总是以一种或几种主要产品作为标志，在商品经济条件下，一种主要产品的市场寿命与产业的经济寿命基本上是呈对应关系的。当电报电话出现于市场之时，也意味着电信业的开始；当香烟从市场上消失的时候，烟
6、业的末日也就来临了 一个产业不可能只生产一种产品，而往往是生产一大类产品，这样，其中某种产品的市场寿命的终结或开始并不意味着产业经济寿命的终结或开始，世界上许多国家每年都禁止生产和淘汰一批过时的产品，但并没影响到各个产业的生存。比如钟表产业，现在，普通机械表正处于淘汰时期，式样和功能不断翻新的机械表和石英表先后问世。这样钟表产业就包含着不同型号和细类产品的市场寿命周期。,产业与产品：两种经济寿命的比较,产业经济寿命往往与国民经济成长和波动密切相关，新产业的形成、老产业的衰退，都直接影响到国民经济的状况。产品市场寿命周期一般只与企业的生存、发展和经营管理相关。新产品的开发、新产品淘汰、生产能力的
7、充分利用和闲置、企业的盈利与亏损，都与产品市场寿命周期息息相关。,产业与产品：两种经济寿命的比较,产业经济寿命和产品市场寿命周期都大致可分为四个阶段，二者在各阶段的某些特点也有类似之处产品市场寿命周期的阶段可划分为：投入期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期四个阶段产业经济寿命的阶段可划分为：萌芽期或形成期、成长期、强盛期或兴隆期、衰退期,产业与产品：两种经济寿命的比较,产业经济寿命和产品寿命周期都可通过一些途径加以延长或缩短。例如，通过组织创新、产品创新、开拓新市场等途径来延长其生存寿命，也可以通过强制淘汰、限制发展等途径来缩短其寿命。二者的存在时间的长短有所不同。产品市场生命周期比整个产业的产品经济生
8、命周期要短。一个产业往往包含着许多同类的产品，其中某一种产品被淘汰了，其他产品还存在，从而使该产业继续存在和发展。多数产品的淘汰都发生在饱和期，越是市场竞争激烈的产品，其生命周期可能就越短。在竞争中存留下来的少数产品，它们的产品周期才大体与产业的生存时间相近,产业阶段：产业生命周期,第一阶段：萌芽期或形成期,一种产业是否萌芽的主要标志有两个：一是有无一种全新的产品的出现，而这种产品又具有广阔的发展前景和庞大的市场潜力；二是有无独立从事此种产品生产的厂家出现。而只有当两个条件同时具备才意味着一种新兴产业正在萌芽和初步形成。产业在萌芽期的主要特点是产品很单一；生产厂家只有一个或几个；产品销路不广；
9、成本高，收益少、产量小；对原有产业在资源、管理等方面有很大的依附关系，没有形成独立的生产体系；产品知名度不高，消费者对此还很陌生；产品自身还处于改进和完善之中。,第一阶段：萌芽期或形成期,一般来说，每一个产业都有一个萌生的过程，即萌芽过程，新生产业最初总是寄生于相关的旧产业的“母体”之中，例如，新兴的电子计算机产业，最初就生存于机械制造业的之中。在寄生的岁月中，新产业从旧产业中吸取技术、劳动力、资金、原料、固定资产等，进而逐渐使自己发育成长，而后，与母体分离，成为一个独立的个体。,第二阶段，成长期,这一阶段是扩张阶段，产业的发育生长过程具有如下特点：新产业从不完善、不成熟逐渐走向成熟。一门新产
10、业刚刚形成时，一般总的生产规模和产量不很大，在国民经济中的比重较小，自身的产品品种和门类不够齐全，生产的独立性差和对原有产业的依赖性较强，许多重要的零部件都不能自己生产，甚至没有独立的原料供应来源产业的成长过程也是一个产业的选择过程。优胜劣汰的竟争规律在这一过程中的作用尤其明显，其中部分产业由于种种原因如不符合社会需要或或条件不成熟等而在竞争和选择中遭到淘汰或压缩,第二阶段，成长期,这一阶段是扩张阶段，产业的发育生长过程具有如下特点：大批企业可能转产加入该行业；大批投资者可能涌入该产业，从而使该产业的规模迅速膨胀，在量上呈加速增长趋势。一个产业是否进人成长期，其主要标志是有无能够相互协作、相互
11、补充、配套生产的厂家群体出现；而成长期是否结束的主要标志则是该产业的骨干企业建成与否，即全部主要产品的主要零部件和产品的主要附件能否实行独立生产，主机组装能力和配套生产能力是否基本一致,第三阶段：强盛期或称繁荣期,这一时期，产业自身的发展规模已相当庞大，在国民经济中所占的比重和所起的作用都较大，因而呈现出一片兴旺景象产业是否进人强盛期的判定标识是：该产业的大型骨于企业已经建成，各主件和主要的零部件已经自己生产，独立的生产体系已基本建成，至于产业强盛期的结束则以产品产量停止增长为主要标志一种产业在强盛期内，由于分工分业的发展。必定会再孕育出不少新的产业，例如，电子计算机的迅速发展，就孕育出了软件
12、开发等新兴产业，新兴的产业在产业演变史中，起了一种承先启后的作用。没有某一产业的充分发展，与之相关的其他产业就不可能得以产生和发展,第三阶段：强盛期或称繁荣期,在强盛期内，产业的发展一般具有如下特点。产业扩张的规模渐渐稳定下来，厂家数目基本固定。投资者涌入这一产业的步子慢慢趋于停止，整个产业的再生产开始基本上在重复的规模上进行；同时单个企业的生产已开始从外延的再生产转向内涵的再生产，主要产品的产量的增长幅度变得平缓稳定，产量的增长率急剧上升的趋势基本停止主要产品在市场上已普及，部分开始更新换代。旧产品的淘汰过程已经开始。较之成长期，市场需求量尽管在总量上仍很大，但从趋势上已接近饱和，产品销售开
13、始出现困难一种产业在强盛期内，由于分工分业的发展，会再孕育出新的产业，例如，电子计算机的迅速发展，就孕育出了软件开发等新兴产业，新兴的产业在产业演变中，起了一种承先启后的作用。,第四阶段：衰退期或萎缩期,产业的发展一旦充分成熟以后，就步人了衰退期。“夕阳产业”就是其形象的写照。一种产业是否进入衰退期，有不少标志：如综合生产能力的大量过剩主要产品开始滞销和长期积压部分厂家开始退出这一产业等一种产业何时消亡，是很难预见的事，经济中很少存在对某一种产业完全不需要的情形，这样，尽管该产业的市场需求越来越小，但仍能“苟延残喘”相当长时间。不过，无论怎样，它迟早会消亡的，只是消亡的形式不一定就是绝迹，它可
14、能并入到其他产业中，但不再具有产业的独立性了。,第四阶段：衰退期或萎缩期,产业在衰退期有如下特点：产品产量开始负增长，就是说逐年下降众多的厂家开始退出这一产业，而转向其他领域，原因主要有：利润率下降，成本高，产品缺少销路或者有更具吸引力的产业出现，产品老化以及原有设备的陈旧过时生产能力大量闲置，开工率普遍不足产品供过于求，积压严重在这一阶段内，企业普遍由于内围外扰，活力不足、死气沉沉，最后不得借别老行当，调整生产方向，或转产停产，纷纷转向其他产业。,产业演变与企业数量的变化,新兴产业的特征,基本特征-无序顾客缺乏对产品的了解和必要的产品知识，是“教育顾客”的阶段产品和技术不成熟；竞争规则不确定
15、，正在形成之中企业裂变现象高初始成本，但成本会迅速下降高附加值，但企业的净利可能很低,成熟期产业的特征,需求和生产能力趋于平稳，企业数量减少产品和技术成熟，产品标准化已经完成，工艺的改进日益重要竞争的规则明确，（但打破规则依然是一种重要的战略）经验曲线降至很低的水平渗透策略成为重要的竞争策略,Technology Life Cycles,技术过程的 S-曲线,The S-Curve Of Technological Progress,A technologys improvement of performance follows the S-curveWhen a technology per
16、formance parameter(y axis)is plotted against time(x axis),the result resembles a s-shaped diagram called the S-curve.Technological performance can be expressed in terms of any attribute,such as:Density in the electronics industry(number of transistor per chip)Aircraft speed in miles per hour.,Techno
17、logy Life Cycle(TLC),New invention period(Embryonic stage)Technology improvement period(Growth stage)Mature-technology period,New Invention Period,Characterized by a period of slow initial growth.Experimentation and initial bugs are worked out of the system.,Technology Improvement Period,Characteriz
18、ed by rapid and sustained growth.,Mature Technology Period,Starts when the upper limit of the technology is approached and progress in performance slows down.Technology reaches its natural limits as dictated by factors such as physical limits.The technology becomes vulnerable to substitution or obso
19、lescence when a new or better-performing technology emerges.,Three-stage Technology Life Cycle(TLC):,What are some examples of technologies that have followed this path?The vacuum tube technology was limited by the tubes size and the power consumption of the heated filament.Both of these factors wer
20、e natural barriers to electron conduction in a vacuum tube.Electronic engineers could not overcome these limitations.The arrival of the solid-state technology,or transistor,which permitted electron conduction in solid material,changed the physical barriers of size and power.The transistor technology
21、 started a new technology life cycle and rendered the vacuum-tube technology obsolete.,Learning Point from S-Curve of Technological Progress,When a technology reaches its natural limits it becomes a mature technology vulnerable to substitution or obsolescence.What are some examples of technologies t
22、hat have reached their natural limits?,A technologys rate of performance improvement is dependent on the effort devoted to its development.,Changes in Natural Limits of TechnologyThe rate of performance improvement is shown for twp technologies,The Technology Life Cycle and Market Growth,As technolo
23、gy develops,following the recognized technology life cycle,market penetration occurs and so does market growth,expressed as market volume.The market-growth changes at different phases of the technology life cycle.,技术生命周期不同阶段的市场增长,技术生命周期的6个阶段,Technology development phaseApplication launch phaseApplic
24、ation growth phaseMature-technology phaseTechnology substitution phaseTechnology obsolescence phase,Technology Development Phase,Market does not recognize the technology at all-it has zero response.Important period in which scientists and engineers are spending significant amounts of effort and mone
25、y to:Create the technologyDevelop prototypesTest the new technology,Technology Development Phase,Why would an R&D Manager want to reduce this time period?It is very expensiveDoes not produce revenue,Application Launch Phase,Once the first wave of the new technology application is launched into the m
26、arket,the market volume follows the path of technological progress.This is characterized by slow initial growth during the launching period,followed by rapid growth.,Application Growth Phase,During the growth phase of the technology,penetration into the market will depend on:Rate of innovation Marke
27、t needs for the new technology,Mature-Technology Phase,The growth rate slows down as the technology approaches its maturity.,Technology Substitution Phase,Market volume will peak and then start to decline.Companies that continue to use the old technology in this phase will be faced with a shrinking
28、market share and a fall in revenues.Why will companies using mature technology face a shrinking market share and fall in revenues?,Technology Obsolescence Phase,Technology has little or no valueList Several Technologies ask groups to put these technologies into phases,Multiple-Generation Technologie
29、s,Technology,like all systems,has a hierarchy.A system can consist of a number of sub-systems,and each subsystem may have a number of components.Technology can consist of multiple technologies and derive from different generations of innovation.What are some examples of multiple-generation technolog
30、ies?,Multiple-Generation Technologies,Example:Computer ProductionMicro-processor-which can also be defined as a technology with a technology life cycle all its own.In turn the microprocessor has its own multiple-generation technologies or sub-technologies.The microprocessor technology developed has
31、undergone several generations of changes(8088,286,386,486,and Pentium I,II,III).Each of these generations of innovation helped boost the technology life cycle of the microprocessor and,in turn,that of the PC.,Multiple Generation TechnologiesSubtechnology Life cycles in multiple generations of innova
32、tion shape the overall technology life cycle,Multiple-Generation Technologies,Multiple-Generation Technologies,Example:Software ProductionAny software developed for a major application undergoes several generations of change.The changes improve the software and extend its useful life.If a company de
33、veloping software stops its development after one generation and another company continues to develop new generations,the former will find itself unable to compete with the latters newer-generation technology.,Technology And Market Interaction,A very strong dynamic relationship exists between techno
34、logical innovation and the marketplace.The presence of a market or the creation of a new market represents the reward for technological development.It is only when technological developments find a market that scientific research pays off and the development cost is reimbursed in economic or social
35、terms.,Science-Technology Push,Most of the recent technological breakthroughs are based on earlier scientific discoveries.Science provides the base for technological development,which in turn creates new markets.,Science-Technology Push,ExamplesBayraktar(1990)cites several examples of technologies t
36、hat owe their bases to scientific discoveries:The field of electronics is based on Maxwells theory of electromagnetismNuclear energy is based on Einsteins 1905 paper,which established the famous E=MC2 equationThe transistors are based on A.H.Wilsons 1931 paper on the theory of semiconductors;Genetic
37、 engineering followed the discovery of the structure of DNA by Watson and Crick in 1952.,Science-Technology Push,Science provides the base for the technological push.Innovations that ensued from technologies cause major industry upheavals and totally changed the markets.They bring major economic gro
38、wth.Radical innovations of products within a technology area create similar effects.Example:A radical innovation that created a major change in the way we do business is xerography.When the Xerox machine was developed,it was dubbed an invention with little promise and a product concept without a mar
39、ket(Mort,1990).Observe where this copying industry is today.Radical innovations create new markets and expand existing markets.,Market Pull,Technological development is also stimulated by market pull.Technology is often developed to meet a market need or demand.This is the most effective way to conn
40、ect technology with the market.,Market Pull Is Stimulated By Consumers,In the majority of cases,market pull is stimulated by consumers.Consumers may or may not know whether a new technology exists or is being developed,or if they do,they may not understand the technology.,Market Pull Technologies Ar
41、e Incremental Improvements,Most of the technological developments stimulated by market pull are of an Incremental nature,or represent improvements to existing technologies.Incremental technological improvements have a cumulative effect,and they can have a tremendous impact on productivity and compet
42、itiveness.,Market pull(with strong collective demand)may provoke major breakthroughs,When there is a strong collective demand for a solution to a specific problem(such as a vaccine for AIDS),market pull may provoke major breakthroughs.,Integrate Push and Pull,Both mechanisms,push and pull,contribute
43、 to stimulating innovation and technological change.Integrating them accelerates the change.Munro and Noori(1988)proposed that commitment to technology adoption is dependent on an integrative approach to technology push and market pull combined with managements attitude toward technology and the fir
44、ms technical and financial resources.What are examples of market-pull technologies?,Competition At Different Phases Of The Technology Life Cycle,1.Technology DevelopmentCompetition is based on innovation.Technology is still developing and has not been fully accepted.Companies depend on their innovat
45、ion to add value to products and services they bring to their customers.The introduced technology has not yet demonstrated its potential for changing the basis of competition.,Competition At Different Phases Of The Technology Life Cycle,2.Application Launch PhaseTechnology helps expand the market si
46、ze for the product or service offered.Technology becomes a pacing technology in that it has the potential for changing the basis of the competition.Company must be able to balance its growth strategies with its marketing strategies.Attention to growth must not distract the company from continuing in
47、novation.,Competition At Different Phases Of The Technology Life Cycle,3.Application Growth PhaseOnce the innovation has proved itself in the market,it permits its owner to take a patented position or to define the industry standard.A dominant design of the product emerges,and the technology has a m
48、ajor impact on the value-added stream of performance,cost,and quality.Technology in this phase of the growth stage is known as key technology,and a company should increase its capabilities in this area to compete.,Competition At Different Phases Of The Technology Life Cycle,4.Mature-technology phase
49、 When the technology reaches a stage of maturity and the rate of innovation declines,it becomes a commodity,available to all competitors.Technologies in this category are also recognized as base technologies and have little ability to give a company a strong competitive edge.,Competition Product and
50、 Process Innovation,The rate of product and process innovations follow a general pattern.This pattern can be used to formulate policies and procedures to better manage the process of technological innovation.,Competition Product and Process Innovation,Competition Product and Process Innovation,When
