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1、1,04 全球运筹管理Global Supply Chain Logistics Management,柳学信 副教授 首都经济贸易大学工商管理学院2007年,2,主要内容,全球性供应链趋势全球供应链风险与优势全球供应链管理全球运筹管理,3,The Global Business Climate,Increasing market concentration市场集中Increasing dispersion of production生产分散Increasing product line diversity生产线多样化,4,Increasing Market Concentration,Thr
2、ough increased market concentration,so-called“power retailers”have come to rule the marketplaces in first-world economies.随着市场集中度的增加，所谓的“零售大亨”已统治了第一世界国家市场。In the United States,for example,discount retailers such as Wal-Mart,Kmart,and Target have become dominant chains in general merchandising.在美国，例如
3、，折扣零售商如沃尔玛，西尔斯和Target已经占据整条商品链中的统治地位。“Category killer”retail chains such as Toys R Us,Home Depot,and Circuit City now control substantial shares of the retail market for their specialty goods.“类别杀手”零售连锁 例如 Toys R Us,Home Depot,and Circuit City现在自己的特色商品已占有庞大的份额。,5,Representing a substantial portion o
4、f national retail sales,these power retailers have tipped the balance of channel power.这些大零售商全国零售销售占相当大的比例，已经打破渠道平衡。With the base of retailers shrinking to a few giant firms,manufacturers and wholesalers now respond eagerly to the demands of these power retailers.随着零售商已经缩小到几个巨型公司，所以制造商及批发商现在热切回应着这些零
5、售大亨们的要求。,6,Increasing Market Concentration,One profit-enhancing strategy commonly used by power retailers is the refusal to hold large inventories.大零售商常用的一个利润提升策略就是拒绝持有大量库存。The power retailers have learned the lessons of just-in-time inventory management,and firms such as Wal-Mart focus on zero inve
6、ntory as a desirable goal.大零售商学会了运用JIT库存管理，像Wal-Mart这样的公司更是将零库存作为其理想目标。The retailers have strategically applied inventory technologies such as point-of-sale scanning and electronic automatic reordering to make such split-second logistics performance possible.零售商战略上运用存货技术，例如销售点扫描和电子自动订货系统，使得瞬时物流成为可能。
7、When such retailers are paired with responsive and logistically sophisticated manufacturers,retail inventory turnover rates skyrocket.This allows the retailer to sell the goods before it even pays its suppliers,lending real-world proof to the concept of zero-inventory retailing.当这些零售商和具有响应性以及复杂物流系统的
8、制造商结合在一起时，零售存货周转率扶摇直上。这使得零售商可以先出售商品，然后再付款给供应商，在现实世界中实现了零存货零售的理念。,7,Increasing Market Concentration,As this goal is reached,power retailers seek additional higher levels of logistics capabilities from their suppliers and increasingly choose to deal only with suppliers who can guarantee their logistic
9、s performance.在这些目标实现以后，大零售商就开始寻找另外的具有高物流水平的供应商，并更多的只选择那些可以保证其物流绩效水平的供应商。Logistics performance guarantees are common today.Suppliers who ship with errors in quantity,SKU,packaging requirements,or delivery requirements are today often heavily penalized by their retailer customers through invoice char
10、ge-backs.物流绩效担保在今天很平常。那些在出货数量，库存单位，包装要求，或交货要求上出错的供应商现如今常常被零售客户用退回货物的方式进行重罚。,8,When channel power is exercised in this way,leading-edge logistics performance becomes a norm,not an aspirational goal.As such,firms that cannot provide logistics excellence are left behind their competition.The power of t
11、he logistics-linked vertical marketing system is undeniable.当渠道巨头采用这种方式后，领先的物流绩效成为一种规范，而不是期望的目标。因此，如果公司不能提供卓越的物流，那么他们就会在竞争中落后。由物流链接的垂直营销系统重要性是不可否认的。Firms have pursued two distinctly different strategies in locating production facilities.公司追求两种完全不同的生产设施定位战略。Some have chosen to go where the cost of ec
12、onomic inputs(land,labor,and capital)are lowest.一些将选址定在经济投入（土地、人力、资金）最少的地方Others,facing unwieldy transportation problems or local trade barriers,have chosen to locate their manufacturing facilities near or in the markets where their goods are sold.另一些，面对难以处理的运输问题和地方贸易障碍，选择将他们的生产设施建在其产品得以销售的市场中或者附近。,
13、9,Increased Dispersion of Production,In a global marketplace,both of these production location approaches can greatly complicate supply chain management and bring to the forefront excellence in international logistics performance.在全球市场，这两种生产设施的选址会使供应链管理大大复杂化，将国际物流绩效的优点成为焦点。Adding to this complexity
14、is the continuing trend toward more sophisticated automated manufacturing to increase quality and decrease labor costs.与这种复杂化伴随的趋势是用以增加质量和降低劳动力成本的更加精密的自动化生产。For global logistics managers,these trends dictate increasingly complex logistics system design.对于全球物流经理人，这些趋势使物流系统设计日益复杂。,10,Increased Dispers
15、ion of Production,Demand and supply pipelines must now circle the globe,and factory outputs must be directed(and often redirected)with increased precision in timing.供求现在必须在全球范围内进行考虑，工厂产出必须在更加精确的时间控制下进行。Multimodal transportation coupled with improved information management has helped logistics profes
16、sionals cope with the demands of global sourcing and manufacturing.多式联运加上改良的信息管理可以帮助物流专家应对全球外包和制造的需求。It is now possible for logistics managers to creatively manage the inbound and outbound inventories while still in transit to and from manufacturing plants.现在物流经理创造性地管理输入与输出库存成为可能，虽然仍然是从制造工厂输出或者向工厂输入
17、。,11,Gould,Stephen(2001),“Sourcing Successfully in China,”Supply Chain Management Review,12,Increased Dispersion of Production,As the business function dealing with the creation of time,place,and form utility,leading-edge logistics allows firms to increase profitability,quality,and responsiveness to
18、 their fellow channel members and to consumers.当企业在实现时间效用，场所效用和形态效用的创造时，尖端物流使得企业为其渠道成员和消费者增加利润，质量和反应速度。Because such complex systems with high performance standards are so difficult to duplicate,logistics can give a tremendous competitive advantage to the entire global supply chain.因为这样有着高水平的复杂系统是很难被
19、复制的，所以物流可以给整个全球供应链以巨大的竞争优势。,13,Increasing Product Line Diversity,Manufacturers worldwide have responded to the increasingly sophisticated needs of consumers in world by lengthening and broadening their product lines.全球制造商对消费者日益复杂化的需求做出的反应是横向和纵向扩展其生产线。As marketers have gotten more in tune with the ne
20、eds and wants of consumers,they have expanded the variety of products offered.营销商为了更符合消费者需求，已经扩大了他们所提供的产品种类。,14,Increasing Product Line Diversity,A related phenomenon is the general shortening of product life cycles observed in the 1990s,most exaggeratedly in technology products.一个相关的现象是在二十世纪九十年代所观察
21、到的全球产品生命周期变短，尤其是在技术产品颇为显著。As demands change so rapidly,logistics system throughput time becomes critical.Goods must arrive where and when they are demanded,else they risk market obsolescence.While this may seem obvious and simplistic,the challenge faced by a firm managing a global supply chain is qu
22、ite complex.由于需求的快速变化，物流系统的运营时间变得至关重要。货物必须在需要的时刻和地点被运达，否则他们将会承担被市场淘汰的风险。虽然这可能看起来是显而易见并简单的，但是一个管理着全球供应链的公司所面临的挑战却相当复杂。,15,Increasing Product Line Diversity,The case of Sonys“Mini-disc”technology.This home audio-recording format was intended as a near-CD quality replacement for the audio cassette.Mini
23、-discs are small,so are easily amenable to both home and portable use.Mini-disc technology has been very successfully adopted by Japanese consumers,and Sony has licensed it to a number of Japanese manufacturers including JVC and Sharp.如索尼的“Mini-disc”技术。这种家庭唱片是打算作为录音带的替代品，并具有接近CD的音质。Mini-disc很小，所以很容易
24、用于家庭和随身携带。Mini-disc技术已十分成功地被日本消费者接受，并且索尼已授权给许多日本厂商，包括JVC and Sharp。,16,However,Mini-disc technology did not catch on nearly as well with North American and European consumers,with market penetrations standing at just a few percent.In contrast,American consumers rapidly adopted the MP3 standard for w
25、eb-shared audio files in comparison with Japanese consumers.Thus Sony finds itself a market leader in Mini-disc products in Japan,but a market follower in MP3 products in the United States.然而，Mini-disc技术并没有征服北美和欧洲的消费者，通过市场份额仅得到几个百分点。相比之下，美国的消费者比日本消费者更快地接受了通过标准的mp3网络共享音频文件。因而索尼发现自己在日本的Mini-disc是市场领跑者
26、，但在美国的mp3产品却是市场跟随者。,17,Increasing Product Line Diversity,These market-driven trends have implications for international logistics managers.这种市场导向趋势已影响国际物流经理。There are more products in the global supply chain,with shorter life cycles,and with more divergent sourcing requirements.These developments in
27、herently raise the complexity of the logistics task.现在在国际物流供应链上有更多的短生命周期产品，并且具有更加分散的外包需求。这样的发展必定会使物流的任务更为复杂化。,18,Increasing Product Line Diversity,Dominant power retailers increasingly are willing to do business only with partners who can provide such service.And as manufacturing costs have declined
28、 worldwide,increased focus is put on logistics costs.占统治地位的大零售商日益希望与可以提供这样服务的合作者进行生意往来。并且随着全球制造成本的下降，人们将更多的目光集中于物流成本上。Corporate management will expect logistics costs to fall with increased logistics system efficiency in the same way they have seen manufacturing costs fall with increases in manufact
29、uring efficiency.公司管理层希望将物流成本下降的同时物流系统效率同样增加，正如制造成本下降而制造效率同时增加那样。,19,全球性供应链管理,全球营运与供应链变得越来越重要是非常明显的。在许多方面来说，全球供应链管理与横跨大片地理区域的国内供应链管理是相似的。假如国际供应链网络能有效管理，它将能提供许多额外的机会。必须注意许多额外的潜在问题及陷阱。,20,全球性供应链,全球性供应链的模式：国际分销系统：这种类型系统的生产仍然以本土为主，但分销系统及一部分营销发生在海外。国际供货商：原材料与零部件由海外供应商提供，产品的最终装配仍在国内进行。在一些情况下，产品装配完成后运往海外销售
30、。离岸加工：国外加工，运回国内销售和配送。全球性供应链：产品的进货、生产、销售的整个过程都发生在全球不同的工厂。,21,全球性供应链管理,多尼尔等人认为：驱动企业全球化发展趋势的几种力量：全球市场力量 Global Market Forces科技的力量 Technological Forces全球成本力量 Global Cost Forces政治及经济力量 Political and Economic Forces,22,全球市场力量,Foreign competition in local markets全球市场力量包括了由外国竞争者所创造的压力，及外国顾客所创造的机会。Growth in
31、foreign demand许多公司需求成长的机会是在外国及新兴的市场中。全世界对产品需求逐渐增加的一个原因是全球信息的增多。Global presence as a defensive tool藉由加入具高度竞争性的市场中，公司被迫去发展以及增加尖端的技术和产品。例如：要成为软件业的领导者，你必须在美国市场内进行竞争。Presence in state-of-the-art marketsJapan-consumer electronicsGermany-machine toolsUS:software,23,科技的力量,Diffusion of knowledge知识的扩散Many hig
32、h tech components developed overseas许多高科技组件在海外研发Need close relationships with foreign suppliers需要与外国供应商建立紧密关系。Technology sharing/collaborations科技分享/协作Access to technology/markets获得技术/市场Global location of R&D facilities R&D设施全球定位Close to production(as cycles get shorter)靠近产地（周期变短）Close to expertise(I
33、ndian programmers)靠近专家,24,全球成本力量,Low labor cost 低劳动成本Diminishing importance(Costs underestimated,benefits overestimated)重要性在降低(成本被低估，效益高估)在过去，低成本的非技术性劳工是决定工厂地点的必然因素。最近许多案例的研究发现，较便宜的非技术性劳工的成本无法抵过在偏远地区工厂营运的其它相关成本。Other cost priorities 其他成本优势Integrated supplier infrastructure(as suppliers become more i
34、nvolved in design)一体化的供应商设施（供应商更多地参与设计）Skilled labor 熟练劳动力Capital intensive facilities 资本集中型设施tax breaks 减税joint ventures 合资price breaks 价格优惠cost sharing 分担费用,25,政治与经济力量,Exchange rate fluctuations and operating flexibility 外汇汇率波动与运营柔性Regional trade agreements(Europe,North America,Pacific Rim)区域性的贸易协
35、议（欧洲、环太平洋或北美贸易区）Value of being in a country in one of these regions 对位于这些地区的国家的价值Implications for supply network design对于供应网络设计的意义Reevaluation of foreign facilities(Production processes designed to avoid tariffs)重估国外设施（为了避免关税的生产流程再设计）将会使企业扩张至区域团体之中的某一国家。对公司而言，在内可能具有获取原料或制造上的优势。,26,Political and Econ
36、omic Forces,Trade protection mechanisms 贸易保护机制Tariffs 关税Quotas 配额Voluntary export restrictions 自动的出口限制Japanese automakers in US Local content requirements 当地需求TI/Intel factories in EuropeJapanese automakers in the EUHealth/environmental regulations 健康/环境管制Japanese refused to import US skis for many
37、years(different snow)Government procurement policies 政府采购政策 Up to 50%advantage for American companies on US Defense contracts,27,全球供应链风险与优势,世界正趋向标准化产品的发展。模块化时代(青木昌彦，2001)。越来越多的大市场对产品的开放远超过过去经理人员所能想象的。利用这个趋势，企业可以实现关于生产、管理、配销、营销等的规模经济。全球供应链可以提供企业弹性来面对国际市场中的不确定性，这弹性可用来抗拒与全球企业攸关的几项因素所带来的风险。,28,全球供应链风险,汇
38、率波动营运曝露(operational exposure)顾客反应竞争者的反应供货商的反应政府的反应,29,Currency Exposure,Currency ExposureThe results of transactions denominated in foreign currencies change(cash deposits,debt obligations)以外币表示的交易变化的结果（现金存款，债务）Currency Exposure Result of translating foreign financial statements into the currency of
39、 the parent company 由于将外国财务报表转化为母公司货币的结果Financial instruments used to hedge these 用金融工具防范,30,Currency Exposure,Changes a firms competitive position and future cash flows 改变一家公司的竞争地位及未来的现金流量In the short run,changes in currency rates dont necessarily reflect changes in inflation rates 在短期内，汇率变动并不一定反映通
40、货膨胀变化率Regional operations become relatively more or less expensive区域运营变得相对比较便宜,31,Operating Exposures,Customer reactions 顾客反应Competitor reactions 竞争者反应market share 市场占有率Profit 利润Supplier reactions 供应商反应Government reaction 政府反应,32,应付全球供应链风险,Speculative Strategy 投机性策略Bet on a single scenario 孤注一掷Japan
41、ese auto manufacturing in Japan：20世纪70-80年代，认为把生产地设在日本更有利，尽管劳动力成本高，但是可以利用汇率、生产力和投资方面的有利条件。但日本劳动力持续上升，汇率坚挺，厂商受到损失，不得不海外设厂。Hedged Strategy 避险性策略Losses in one area offset by gains in another 堤内损失堤外补Volkswagen in US,Brazil,Mexico,GermanyFlexible Strategy 弹性策略,33,Flexibility Strategies,Flexibility to tak
42、e advantages of operational exposure 利用营运曝露优势的弹性Requires a flexible supply chain 需要柔性化的供应链multiple suppliers 多个供应商flexible facilities 灵活设施excess capacity 额外能力various distribution channels 多分销渠道Can be expensive to implement 实施起来代价高昂coordination mechanisms 协调机制capital investments 资本投资loss of economies
43、 of scale 丧失规模经济,34,Flexible Strategies,Production/sourcing shifts生产/采购转移：不同设施之间平衡，如汇率影响、劳动力成本变化可以重新选址。Information sharing信息共享：共享信息，可以发现新机会。global coordination全球协调：市场杠杆。一处受到竞争压力，可以抄对手的后院。political leverage政治杠杆：如果政府拖拉或是税收费高，则迅速转移生产。,35,Requirements for global strategy implementation five basic functi
44、ons of firms,产品开发 Design products that can be modified easily for major markets.产品设计可以进行改良以适应各个大市场采购Ensure that the quality and delivery options from various suppliers are compatible 确认从不同供应商那里获得的质量与交货选择相协调Compare the pricing of various suppliers 在不同供应商之间比较价格Sufficient suppliers in different regions
45、 are at hand 在不同地区都有充足的供应商,36,Requirements for global strategy implementation five basic functions of firms,生产Excess capacity and plants in several regions shifting production 额外能力+工厂分布在几个地区转换生产Effective communications systems 有效通信系统Centralized management centralized information集中管理信息集中需求管理Projected
46、 demand and available product Marketing and sales plans 预计需求和现有产品营销和销售计划Information is best supplied by analysts located in each region 各个地区分别分析的信息是最有效的communication 沟通/通信订单履行Centralized system 集中机制,37,全球供应链管理问题,Regional vs.International Products一些种类的产品，其中的每一种都有不同的全球需求条件具区域特性的产品：有些产品必须针对某些地区做一些特殊的设计
47、及制造。例如：汽车的设计通常是具区域特性的。当然，即使是区域性的设计有异，有效的供应链管理可以利用共同的零件，或不同的设计来组装。真正的全球性产品：这些产品是真正全球性的，意即是不须为了全球的销售而做任何的修正、改变。Coca-colaLevis的牛仔裤及麦当劳的汉堡。奢侈品品牌，如：Coach及Gucci。可口可乐及麦当劳非常倚赖特定的区域性制造、装瓶工厂与配销网络；但其它产品则基本上透过相同方式配销全球。,38,Local Autonomy vs.Central Control,集中式的控制对善用所讨论过的一些策略可能是很重要的；但在许多案例中，允许供应链的当地自主权是有其意义的。有时，在
48、独立的区域营运系统证明成功之后，总部会无法抗拒诱惑而来干预营运系统，因而造成绩效变差。依据相关区域的特性，缓和对此地区性商业活动的期望是很重要的。,39,全球供应链管理问题,各种各样风险：汇率波动既是机会，也是风险。欠发达地区海外工厂管理复杂，培训费用、生产率低。合作伙伴会成为竞争对手。技术出口到中国公司或政府，与技术来源国竞争只是迟早的事情。日立，过去是摩托罗拉的特许生产商，现在已经成为独立的微芯片加工厂；东芝，过去曾经为3M生产复印机，现在是全球主要的复印机供应厂。台湾Sunrise Plywood and Furniture，过去很长一段时间是美国加州Mission Furniture的
49、合作伙伴，现在这是其主要的竞争对手。贸易保护变化。,40,全球物流差异,41,Strategic Approaches for Global SCM,Chopra and Meindl(2001)Supply Chain Management:Strategy,Planning,and Operations propose two generic strategies for managing supply chains.供应链管理战略、规划、和运营Chopra and Meindl(2001)中：提出了两种通用的供应链管理战略。Each of these strategies begins
50、with a thorough understanding of end customer needs and requirements.这两种管理战略都以彻底的了解终端客户的需要与需求为前提。Todays sophisticated market segmentation strategies result in groupings of consumers with different demand characteristics.当今复杂的市场细分战略导致了以不同需求特征划分的消费者群体。,42,Strategic Approaches for Global SCM,Consider,f
