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1、,1,創新、擴散、與工業管理,陳慶文高雄第一科技大學資訊管理系(所)暨電子化企業研究所中華民國97年12月24日,2,One of the greatest pains to human nature is the pain of a new idea.It.makes you think that after all,your favorite notions may be wrong,your firmest beliefs ill-founded.Naturally,therefore,common men hate a new idea,and are disposed more or
2、 less to ill-treat the original man who brings it.-Walter Bagehot Physics and Politics,3,Text taken from Rogers,E.M.,1995,Diffusion of Innovations(New York:Free Press),p.406-8.,4,5,In the United States the snowmobile is a means of winter recreation.Since the invention of the Ski-Doo,a one-person sno
3、w vehicle,in 1958,the adoption of snowmobiles spread dramatically,and within a dozen years over a million were in use in North America.,6,But among the Skolt Lapps,a reindeer-herding people of Northern Finland who live above the Arctic Circle,the rapid introduction of snowmobiles caused far-reaching
4、 consequences that were termed disastrous”,7,Prior to the introduction of snowmobiles,the Skolt Lapps herded semi-domesticated reindeer for their livelihood.Reindeer meat was the main food.Reindeer sleds were the principal means of transportation,reindeer hides were used for making clothing and shoe
5、s.Surplus meat was sold at trading stores for cash to buy flour,sugar,tea,and other staples.,8,The Lapps saw themselves mainly as reindeer-herders,and prestige was accorded to men who had a good string of draught reindeer.Lapp society was an egalitarian system in which each family had approximately
6、equal number of animals.,9,Skolt children received a first-tooth reindeer,a name-day reindeer,and gifts on various other occasions,including wedding gifts of reindeer,so that a new household began with a small herd of the beloved animals.The Lapps felt a special relationship with their reindeer,and
7、treated them with much care.The reindeer was the central object in Lapp culture.,10,In 1961 a Bombardier Ski-Doo from Canada was displayed in Rovaniemi,the capital city of Finnish Lapland.A schoolteacher purchased this snowmobile for recreational travel,but soon found that it was useful for hauling
8、wood and storebought supplies.,The Lapps began using snowmobiles for reindeer herding.Within the following year,two ski-doos were purchased for herding reindeer in an area where the land was forested and rocky.,Ski-doo K61,11,Dr.Pertti Pelto of the University of Connecticut had lived among the Skolt
9、 Lapps in the Sevettijrvi region of Northern Finland for several years,beginning in 1958,prior to the introduction of snowmobiles in 1962-1963.Pelto returned to this community repeatedly over the next decade to assess the impact of the snowmobile revolution,12,the rate of adoption of snowmobiles was
10、 very rapid among the Lapps.Three snowmobiles were adopted in the second year of diffusion,five more the next year,then eight more,and sixteen in 1966 and 1967.By 1971,almost every one of the seventy-two households in Sevettijrvi(the village studied by Pelto)had at least one snowmobile.,13,An improv
11、ed model,the Motoski,was introduced from Sweden.It had a more powerful motor and was better suited to driving in rough terrain.,14,The main advantage of the snowmobile was much faster travel.The round trip from Sevettijrvi to buy staple supplies in Norwegian stores was reduced from three days by rei
12、ndeer sled,to five hours by snowmobile.Within a few years of their initial introduction,snowmobiles completely replaced skis and reindeer sleds as a means of herding reindeer.,15,Unfortunately,the noise and the smell of the machines drove the reindeer into a near-wild state.The friendly relationship
13、s between the Lapps and their animals was disrupted by the high-speed machines.Frightened running by the reindeer decreased the number of reindeer calves born each year.,16,The average number of reindeer per household in Sevettigrvi dropped from fifty-two in pre-snowmobile days,to only twelve in 197
14、1,a decade later.This average is misleading because about two-thirds of the Lapp households completely dropped out of reindeer-raising as a result of the snowmobile.Most could not find other work and were unemployed.On the other hand,one family in Sevettigrvi,who were relatively early in purchasing
15、a snowmobile,built up a large herd,and by 1971 owned one-third of all reindeer in the community.,17,Not only did the frightened reindeer have fewer calves,but the precipitous drop in the number of reindeer also occurred because many of the animals had to be slaughtered for their meat,so the Lapps co
16、uld purchase the snowmobiles,gasoline for their operations,and spare parts and repairs.A new machine cost about$1000,and gas and repairs typically cost about$425 per year.,18,Despite this relatively high cost(for the Skolt Lapps,who lived on a subsistence income),snowmobiles were considered a househ
17、old necessity,and the motorized herding of reindeer was considered much more prestigious than herding by skis or with reindeer sleds.The snowmobile revolution pushed the Skolt Lapps into a tailspin of cash dependency,debt,and unemployment.,19,Further,Lapp society is very individualistic,and given th
18、e technologys advantages for the first adopters(who were wealthier and younger than the average),initial adoption was impossible to prevent.Thereafter,the diffusion process quickly ran its course.,20,As a result,the reindeer-centred culture of the Skolt Lapps was severely disrupted.Most families tod
19、ay are unemployed and depend upon the Finnish government for subsistence payments.,The snowmobile revolution in the arctic led to disastrous consequences for the reindeer,and for the Lapps who depended on the animals for their livelihood.,21,Since the anthropological study of the snowmobile revoluti
20、on by Pertti Pelto,further technological developments have occurred in Lapland.During the summer months,the Lapps began using motorcycles to herd their reindeer.Certain affluent Lapps even began using helicopters.,22,An increasing number of reindeer slaughtered for meat were found to have stomach ul
21、cers.Certainly technological innovation has not been kind to the Skolt Lapps.,Consequences of Innovations,consequences,the changes that occur to an individual or to a social system as a result of the adoption or rejection of an innovation.CHAPTER 11,Everett Rogers father of this field of study of th
22、e diffusion of innovationsChairman of the Department of Communication and Journalism at the University of New MexicoFirst edition published in 1962Now in its fifth edition-reviews more than 5,000 publications in this field of“diffusion research”Covers about 20 different disciplines such as anthropol
23、ogy,communication,industrial engineering,psychology,Free Press,2003,25,Definition of Diffusion of Innovation,the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.-Everett Rogers,The reason why Taiwan has become the leader in so ma
24、ny fields is because of its unyielding commitments to innovation.Bill Gates in the film-Its Very Well Made in Taiwan,innovation does not need to be new in terms of being recently developed,it only needs to be new to the person or organization that is adopting and implementing it.,-Rogers,1995-,28,Ma
25、nagement of Technologythe key to competitiveness and wealth creation,Technology:all the knowledge,products,processes,tools,methods,and systems employed in the creation of goods or in providing services.(the way we do things.)Tarek Khalil,2000(Univ.of Miami),29,Example:iomega(zip disk):a parallel por
26、t zip driver(suck product!)ultra-sound in India(misused product!)McDonald:parallel production for competition(process innovation with latest cooking technologies),30,Making Hamburgers at McDonalds,Burger King,and Wendys,31,Everett Rogers(1962)defined Innovation-“An idea,practice,or object perceived
27、as new”,Carefully studied new innovations in:Hybrid corn,Television,Manufacturing and MedicineConcluded that“New ideas tend to follow a pattern in entering society”i.e.how they“diffuse”into society,32,The Innovation Adoption Decision-Making Process,There are five stages in the process to adopt an in
28、novation.Knowledge An individual understands what it is,how it works,and why it works.(Cognitive)Persuasion An individual forms a favorable or an unfavorable attitude toward the innovation.(Affective)Decision An individual engages in activities that lead to a choice to adopt or reject an innovation.
29、Implementation An individual puts an innovation to use.Confirmation An individual seeks reinforcement for the innovation decision already made.Diffusion of Innovation,Rogers.1983,33,Diffusion of Innovation(Rogers,1995),Stages of adoption:Awareness-the individual is exposed to the innovation but lack
30、s complete information about it Interest-the individual becomes interested in the new idea and seeks additional information about it Evaluation-individual mentally applies the innovation to his present and anticipated future situation,and then decides whether or not to try it Trial-the individual ma
31、kes full use of the innovationAdoption-the individual decides to continue the full use of the innovation,34,The Adoption Process,Many individuals play a role Many factors impact the rate of adoptionLeaders in adoption not always in“traditional”leadership roles,35,Innovation characteristics,Observabi
32、lityThe degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to potential adoptersRelative AdvantageThe degree to which the innovation is perceived to be superior to current practiceCompatibilityThe degree to which the innovation is perceived to be consistent with socio-cultural values,previous
33、ideas,and/or perceived needsTrialabilityThe degree to which the innovation can be experienced on a limited basisComplexityThe degree to which an innovation is difficult to use or understand.,36,Adopter Categories,People fall into one of five categories of adopters or non-adopters.Innovators Ventures
34、ome,eager to try new ideas.The innovator must be able to cope with the high degree of uncertainty about an innovation at the time they make the decision to adopt.They are risk takers and are willing to accept an occasional setback.Early Adopters Respectable and are more integrated into the social sy
35、stem than are innovators.This group includes the largest number of opinion leaders.These are the“people to check with”before using a new idea.Early Majority Deliberate but adopt new ideas just before the average member of a social system.They seldom are viewed as opinion leaders.Late Majority Skepti
36、cal and often make a decision or adopt a new idea as an economic necessity or in response to pressure from peers or others.Laggards Traditional and offer almost no option to leadership.Their focus is mostly on the past.Diffusion of Innovation,Rogers.1983,37,Successful Diffusion depends on understand
37、ing how the needs of adopters will change over time,andhow adopters influence each other,Earlymajority34%,Latemajority34%,Earlyadopters13.5%,16%,2.5%,Innovators,Laggardsand nonadopters,Risk takingvisionaries(beta testers)Super-InformedMobileSophisticatedLittle influenceon market,VisionariesProgressi
38、veOpinion leadersCuriousVisibleInformedMobilePatient withtesting phase,PragmatistsCautiousAttentive toearly adoptersRequire muchinformationbefore adoptingMust work first time,Very suspiciousHard to reach,Time,Number of New Adopters,38,Cumulative Adoption Curve The“S Curve”,Bass Curve,Three parameter
39、s:Market potential m-the total number of people who will eventually use the product External influence p-mass media coverageInternal influence q-word-of-mouth,Bass formula:,Frank Bass is a marketing professor currently at Univ of Texas-Dallas,Bass,Frank M.(1969)“A New Product Growth Model for Consum
40、er Durables”Management Science 13(5):215-227,40,41,Number of Years to Reach 50 Percent Penetration of U.S.Households,Technology YearsNewspapers 100+Telephone 70Phonograph 55Cable Television 39 Personal Computer 17 Color Television 17VCR 10Radio 9Black U.S.Dept of Commerce,42,Examples of S-curves in
41、earning per share:Microsoft&Xerox,43,Factors affecting diffusion,Innovation characteristicsIndividual characteristicsSocial network characteristicsOthers,44,Individual characteristics,InnovativenessOriginally defined by Rogers:the degree to which an individual is relatively earlier in adopting an in
42、novation than other members of his social systemModified&extended by Hirschman(1980):Inherent/actualized novelty seekingCreative consumerAdoptive/vicarious innovativeness,45,Other individual characteristics,Reliance on others as source of information(Midgley&Dowling)Adopter threshold(e.g.Valente)Nee
43、d-for-change/Need-for-cognition(Wood&Swait,2002),46,Network characteristics,Opinion leadership:number of nominations as source of informationNumber of contacts within each adopter category(Valente)Complex structure,47,Other possible factors:,Lyytinen&Damsgaard(2001)Social environment of diffusion of
44、 innovationMarketing strategies employedInstitutional structures(e.g.,government),48,The Bass Diffusion Model,Model designed to answer the question:When will customers adopt a new product or technology?,49,Assumptions of theBasic Bass Model,Diffusion process is binary(consumer either adopts,or waits
45、 to adopt)Constant maximum potential number of buyers(N)Eventually,all N will buy the productNo repeat purchase,or replacement purchaseThe impact of the word-of-mouth is independent of adoption timeInnovation is considered independent of substitutesThe marketing strategies supporting the innovation
46、are not explicitly included,50,Adoption Probability over Time,Time(t),Cumulative Probability of Adoption up to Time t,F(t),Introduction of product,(a),Time(t),Density Function:Likelihood of Adoption at Time t,f(t)=d(F(t)dt,(b),1.0,51,Sales Growth Model for Durables(The Bass Diffusion Model),St=p Rem
47、aining+q Adopters PotentialRemaining Potential InnovationImitation EffectEffect,where:St=sales at time tp=“coefficient of innovation”q=“coefficient of imitation”#Adopters=S0+S1+St1Remaining=Total Potential#Adopters Potential,52,Parameters of the Bass Model in Several Product Categories,InnovationImi
48、tationProduct/parameter parameter Technology(p)(q)B&W TV0.0280.25Color TV0.0050.84Air conditioners0.0100.42Clothes dryers0.0170.36Water softeners0.0180.30Record players0.0250.65Cellular telephones0.0041.76Steam irons0.0290.33Motels0.0070.36McDonalds fast food0.0180.54Hybrid corn0.0391.01Electric bla
49、nkets0.0060.24A study by Sultan,Farley,and Lehmann in 1990 suggests an average value of 0.03 for p and an average value of 0.38 for q.,53,Technical Specificationof the Bass Model,The Bass Model proposes that the likelihood that someone in the population will purchase a new product at a particular ti
50、me t given that she has not already purchased the product until then,is summarized by the following mathematical.FormulationLet:L(t):Likelihood of purchase at t,given that consumer has not purchased until tf(t):Instantaneous likelihood of purchase at time tF(t):Cumulative probability that a consumer
