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1、Lecture 10:通胀和失业,通胀的成本,我们已经了解到了非常高的通胀如何能彻底地扰乱经济活动。但是，经合组织国家目前关心的是，如0%还是4%的年通胀率带来的更多的好处。在通胀的这个范围内，经济学家找到了通胀所带来的4个主要方面的成本：(1)皮鞋成本,(2)税收扭曲,(3)货币幻觉,和(4)通胀的波动性。,皮鞋成本,皮鞋成本是指在存在通胀时，人们经常光顾银行的成本。因为这时人们认为持有货币的机会成本增加了。,税收扭曲,当税收率不能随着通货膨胀自动上升，也就是没有税档潜升时，就会发生税收扭曲。针对收入的税收包括的是名义利息支付而不是实际利息支付。,货币幻觉,货币幻觉是指人们在评估名义变化和实
2、际变化时，好像犯了系统性错误，导致人们做出了错误的决定。这一概念与通胀的成本存在联系。,通胀的波动性,通胀的波动性意味着承诺将来要支付固定名义金额的金融资产，如债券，其风险变大。,货币幻觉,一项调查显示，货币幻觉非常普遍，人们需要一段时间对通货膨胀作出调整。,通胀的好处,确实，通胀并不总是不好。我们可以发现通胀三个方面的好处：(1)铸币收入,(2)对于宏观经济政策而言，可以选择负的实际利率(3)利用货币幻觉和通胀的相互作用，可以方便地调整实际工资。,Question 1:,Should policy be active or passive?,?,Growth rate of U.S.real
3、 GDP,-4,-2,0,2,4,6,8,10,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,Percent change from 4 quarters earlier,Increase in unemployment during recessions,Arguments for active policy,Recessions cause economic hardship for millions of people.The Employment Act of 1946:“It is the continuing policy and responsi
4、bility of the Federal Government topromote full employment and production.”The model of aggregate demand and supply(Chaps.9-13)shows how fiscal and monetary policy can respond to shocks and stabilize the economy.,Arguments against active policy,Policies act with long&variable lags,including:inside l
5、ag:the time between the shock and the policy response.takes time to recognize shocktakes time to implement policy,especially fiscal policyoutside lag:the time it takes for policy to affect economy.,If conditions change before policys impact is felt,the policy may destabilize the economy.,Automatic s
6、tabilizers,definition:policies that stimulate or depress the economy when necessary without any deliberate policy change.Designed to reduce the lags associated with stabilization policy.Examples:income taxunemployment insurancewelfare,Forecasting the macroeconomy,Because policies act with lags,polic
7、ymakers must predict future conditions.Two ways economists generate forecasts:Leading economic indicators data series that fluctuate in advance of the economyMacroeconometric modelsLarge-scale models with estimated parameters that can be used to forecast the response of endogenous variables to shock
8、s and policies,The LEI index and real GDP,1960s,source of LEI data:The Conference Board,The Index of Leading Economic Indicators includes 10 data series(see p.258).,The LEI index and real GDP,1970s,source of LEI data:The Conference Board,The LEI index and real GDP,1980s,source of LEI data:The Confer
9、ence Board,The LEI index and real GDP,1990s,source of LEI data:The Conference Board,Mistakes forecasting the 1982 recession,Unemployment rate,Forecasting the macroeconomy,Because policies act with lags,policymakers must predict future conditions.,The preceding slides show that the forecasts are ofte
10、n wrong.This is one reason why some economists oppose policy activism.,The Lucas critique,Due to Robert Lucaswho won Nobel Prize in 1995 for rational expectations.Forecasting the effects of policy changes has often been done using models estimated with historical data.Lucas pointed out that such pre
11、dictions would not be valid if the policy change alters expectations in a way that changes the fundamental relationships between variables.,An example of the Lucas critique,Prediction(based on past experience):An increase in the money growth rate will reduce unemployment.The Lucas critique points ou
12、t that increasing the money growth rate may raise expected inflation,in which case unemployment would not necessarily fall.,The Jurys out,Looking at recent history does not clearly answer Question 1:Its hard to identify shocks in the data.Its hard to tell how things would have been different had act
13、ual policies not been used.Most economists agree,though,that the U.S.economy has become much more stable since the late 1980s,The stability of the modern economy,Standard deviation,0.0,0.5,1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,3.0,3.5,4.0,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,Question 2:,Should policy be cond
14、ucted by rule or discretion?,?,Rules and discretion:Basic concepts,Policy conducted by rule:Policymakers announce in advance how policy will respond in various situations,and commit themselves to following through.Policy conducted by discretion:As events occur and circumstances change,policymakers u
15、se their judgment and apply whatever policies seem appropriate at the time.,Arguments for rules,1.Distrust of policymakers and the political processmisinformed politicianspoliticians interests sometimes not the same as the interests of society,Arguments for rules,2.The time inconsistency of discreti
16、onary policydef:A scenario in which policymakers have an incentive to renege on a previously announced policy once others have acted on that announcement.Destroys policymakers credibility,thereby reducing effectiveness of their policies.,Examples of time inconsistency,1.To encourage investment,govt
17、announces it will not tax income from capital.But once the factories are built,govt reneges in order to raise more tax revenue.,Examples of time inconsistency,2.To reduce expected inflation,the central bank announces it will tighten monetary policy.But faced with high unemployment,the central bank m
18、ay be tempted to cut interest rates.,Examples of time inconsistency,3.Aid is given to poor countries contingent on fiscal reforms.The reforms do not occur,but aid is given anyway,because the donor countries do not want the poor countries citizens to starve.,Monetary policy rules,a.Constant money sup
19、ply growth rateAdvocated by monetarists.Stabilizes aggregate demand only if velocity is stable.,Monetary policy rules,b.Target growth rate of nominal GDPAutomatically increase money growth whenever nominal GDP grows slower than targeted;decrease money growth when nominal GDP growth exceeds target.,a
20、.Constant money supply growth rate,Monetary policy rules,c.Target the inflation rateAutomatically reduce money growth whenever inflation rises above the target rate.Many countries central banks now practice inflation targeting,but allow themselves a little discretion.,a.Constant money supply growth
21、rate,b.Target growth rate of nominal GDP,Monetary policy rules,d.The Taylor rule:Target the federal funds rate based oninflation rategap between actual&full-employment GDP,c.Target the inflation rate,a.Constant money supply growth rate,b.Target growth rate of nominal GDP,The Taylor Rule,iff=+2+0.5(2
22、)0.5(GDP gap)whereiff=nominal federal funds rate targetGDP gap=100 x=percent by which real GDP is below its natural rate,The Taylor Rule,iff=+2+0.5(2)0.5(GDP gap),If=2 and output is at its natural rate,then fed funds rate targeted at 4 percent.For each one-point increase in,mon.policy is automatical
23、ly tightened to raise fed funds rate by 1.5.For each one percentage point that GDP falls below its natural rate,mon.policy automatically eases to reduce the fed funds rate by 0.5.,The federal funds rate:Actual and suggested,Percent,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,1987,1990,1993,1996,1999,2002,2005,Central bank independence,A policy rule announced by central bank will work only if the announcement is credible.Credibility depends in part on degree of independence of central bank.,Inflation and central bank independence,average inflation,index of central bank independence,
