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1、1,Regulatory Issues andChinas Auto Market政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响Wayne W.J.Xing Ph.DChina Business UpdateChina Automotive Review中国汽车要闻 邢文军,2,The Auto Market Today中国的汽车市场Future Trend&Drivers未来市场的走向和影响因素Recent Policies&Regulations近期的相关政策和法规,3,The Auto Market Today中国的汽车市场,4,The Rise of Per-Capita GDP人均GDP,Large
2、Metropolis and Coastal Areas$3,000-$4,000 直辖市及沿海地区,5,6,Growth Rate of Automobile and Car Production 1993-2005汽车及轿车产量增幅(in million units)1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Total 1.29 1.35 1.45 1.47 1.58 1.63 1.83 2.07 2.35 3.25 4.46 5.10 5.73%change 22.1 4.3 7.3 1.38 7.37
3、 3.16 12.3 13.1 13.6 39.0 37.2 14.3 12.3Cars*0.23 0.25 0.32 0.39 0.48 0.52 0.57 0.60 0.75 1.17 2.11 2.36 2.93%change 41.1 8.9 30.0 29.4 23.1 8.33 11.5 6.95 23.27 56.0 80.3 11.8 24.2*Includes sub-category cars and MPVs,7,Adding One Million Units A Year年增百万辆First Million:1953-1992-40 yearSecond Millio
4、n:1993-2000-8 yearsThird Million:2001-2002-2 yearsFourth Million:2003-1 yearFifth Million:2004 1 yearsSixth Million:2005 over 1 yearSeventh Million:2006 1 year,8,GDP and Output Growth Rates GDP和汽车产量增幅,9,Chinas auto market:myth and reality 中国的汽车市场的真实性,10,11,12,13,Intensifying Competition 竞争激烈633?,14,
5、DF-Yueda-Kia,FAW Car,FAW-VW,SGM,SVW,Hainan-Mazda,GEELY,Tianjin-FAW-XialiTianjin-FAW-Toyota,Changan-Suzuki,Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citron,Chery,Guangzhou-Honda,D-Nissan,Brilliance-Jinbei,BJ-Hyundai,Changan-Ford,NJ-Fiat,Changhe-Suzuki,Hafei Auto,Guizhou-Skylark,Southeast,S-GM-Wuling,Sichuan-Toyota,3+?,Guangz
6、hou-Toyota,Changan-Ford,D-Nissan,Guangzhou-Hyundai,Great Wall,Jianghuai,6+3,15,63 Multinationals are all in 跨国公司全部进入Volkswagen:大众 SAIC and FAW GM:通用 SAIC-GM,Wuling,Dongyue,Jinbei Ford:福特 Changan,Nanjing,JianglingDaimlerChrysler:戴克 BAIC,Southeast Toyota:丰田 FAW,GAICHonda:本田 GAIC,Dongfeng Renault/Nissa
7、n:雷诺-日产 Dongfeng BMW:宝马 Brilliance JinbeiPSA:标致雪铁龙 Dongfeng;Fiat:菲亚特 NanjingHyundai-Kia:现代-起亚 BAIC,Dongfeng,GAIC Suzuki:铃木 Changan,Changhe;Mitsubishi:三菱 Southeast Isuzu:五十铃 Qingling;,16,3？:FAW,Dongfeng,SAIC“三大？”BAIC:北汽 DaimlerChrysler,Hyundai,MitsubishiGAIC:广汽 Honda,Toyota,Dongfeng-Nissan PassengerC
8、hangan Group:长安 Ford,SuzukiHafei/Changhe:哈飞/昌河 Aviation Industry GroupJianghuai Auto Group 江淮Nanjing:南汽 Fiat,MG RoverSoutheast(Fujian)：东南 Mitsubishi,China MotorsBrilliance:华晨 BMW Qingling Motor Group：庆铃 Isuzu,17,3？Domestic Investment 国内投资Chery:奇瑞 R&D Center,Engine Plant,Export/JV Geely:吉利 R&D Center
9、,Engine plant,Export/JV BYD(Qinchuan):比亚迪 HK$254 million/74%shares Great Wall:长城 100,000 units car assembly plant Jianghuai:江淮 light commercial,MPV,car Lifan:力帆 1.6L car Zhongxing:中兴 SUVs and pickups Gonow Auto:吉奥 SUVs and pickups Loncin:隆鑫 300 million,bus/suv,18,Reality and Definition 如何定义Sedan 轿车A
10、utomobile 汽车Motor vehicle 机动车Consumers 消费者Family car 家庭轿车Price:价格 100,000,80,000,40,000,30,000Sedan vs hatchback 三箱,两箱(Citron ZX,Xiali),19,Summary 结论:Eexisting and potential large market 现实和潜在大市场 Institutional and commercial 公、商务车市场 Consumer market:消费者市场：摩托车、农用车、微车 Motorcycles,farm vehicles,mini-veh
11、icles(not 100%)Sedans 轿车 Transition from a centralized to a market system计划经济向市场经济过渡,20,Future Trend and Drivers未来市场的走向和影响因素,21,Interaction of Three Forces 三股力量的博弈Government,World Market,Domestic Market 政府、国际和国内市场 Streamlining of Central Bureaucracies精简政府机构 Protection of Private Property 公有制和私有制 WTO
12、 Impact 世贸组织 The Rise of a Consumer Market 消费者市场的兴起,22,Declining Administrative Control行政干预逐渐弱化 Ministry of Machinery Industry 机械部 State Administration of Machinery Industry 机械局 China National Automotive Industry Corp.中汽总 State Economic and Trade Commission 经贸委Federation of Machinery Industry 机械工业联合
13、会CAAM/SAE 中国汽车工业协会/中国汽车工程学会,23,Emphasis on the Rule of Law 法制增强Type/Product Approval 认证Safety:compulsory tests,frontal collision 安全碰撞法规Emission Control:Euro III&II 排放Consumption Tax 消费税Consumer Protection:Recall 消费者保护Fuel consumption level:然油消耗限制,24,Administrative Control 行政干预依然存在Auto Industry Devel
14、opment Policy 产业政策（2004）Market entry 市场准入 50:50 Equity Share JV for OEMs 股比限制 Two JVs for the same type of vehicles 项目限制,25,Different departmental priorities(部门交叉管理）SDRC:发改委 Circular(investment threshold)State Assets Commission 国资委 Large State-owned companies MOFCOM:商务部 Investment,Sales,Export Quali
15、ty Inspection，Supervision&Quarantine:质监局 Administration of Taxation:税务局 Taxation Industry and Commerce:工商局 Business License Public Security:公安局 Vehicle License&Registration Communications:交通部 Maintenance&Repair Ministry of Science&Technology:科技部,26,Market vs.Central Planning 市场和计划经济State Council DRC
16、 国务院发展研究中心 Government Should Not Interfere 政府不宜干预 Equal Access and Fair Competition 公平竞争,27,Driven by Market Forces 市场的作用越来越大Automobile:means of production vs consumer good汽车：生产资料还是消费品Public/Institutional to Private Ownership公有到私有Economic Growth&Rising Living Standards经济发展和生活水平,28,Overall Economic G
17、rowth 经济持续增长 Average GDP growth 7-8%GDP增幅 Active fiscal policy 积极的财政 Average annual growth in output 10-15%汽车年产量均增 15 左右,29,International Players 跨国公司Multinational Presence 跨国主机厂和供应商Government Relations and Lobbying 政府公关Vehicles for Government Consumption 政府采购Emissions,Safety,Technology 安全、排放、技术,30,
18、WTO Accession 世贸组织 Tariff down to 25%/10%in 2006 关税减削减 Quota eliminated 配额许可证取消 Localization requirement 取消国产化率 Global sourcing 全球采购 Equity investment limit 放宽投资额度限制 Consumer expectations:Price reduction 降价,31,Domestic Market Forces 国内市场变化Local Investment 地方政府投资Private Investment 民营投资 Chery,Geely,Br
19、illiance,BYD,Lifan,GWMarket Entry Open,with restrictions 准入并未封闭Merger&Acquisitions 兼并重组，借壳生产Buying into the Big Three?民营参股三大?,32,Corporate Decision Making 企业面临新决策Protective vs.Competitive Advantage 保护还是竞争优势Advanced Management vs.Efficiency 先进管理和效率 State-ownership&Labor Cost Advantage 国有和劳动力成本Low-Cos
20、t Management 低成本管理Product Development:Institutional/Consumer新产品开发对象,33,Market Share of Carmakers,2004-2006(%)市场份额Make/Model 2001 20042005Jan-Mar.06Shanghai-VW 31.9 15.8 9.9 9.8Shanghai-GM 7.7 9.910.4 9.3FAW-VW 16.5 13.4 9.6 8.8Beijing-Hyundai N/A 6.4 7.8 7.0Chery Automobile 3.7 4.2 6.4 6.9 Geely 2.9
21、 4.5 5.2 6.1Tianjin-FAW-Toyota N/A 3.4 4.7 6.0 Tianjin-FAW-Xiali 9.3 5.8 6.7 5.8Guangzhou-Honda 6.8 8.2 7.1 5.7Dongfeng-Nissan N/A 2.7 5.5 5.6Dongfeng-PSA 7.0 3.8 4.8 5.0,34,The Road of Electronic Appliances and Motorcycles 家电和摩托车Motorcycle Market shares:19972005 摩托车市场份额 SOEs+JVs（国有和合资企业）:90%40%,35,
22、Recent Policies&Regulations 近期的相关政策和法规,36,Auto Industry Development Policy（2004）产业政策 50:50 Equity Share JV for OEMs 整车股比限制 Two JVs for the same type of vehicles 项目限制 JV initiated M&As 合资企业兼并重组国企 Separation of production&Sales:Mazda 3生产和销售分离 Entrance barrier 准入 Support of“large auto groups”支持“大集团”,37
23、,Import Tariff 进口关税Quota and license eliminated 许可和配额取消Whole vehicles:25%July 1,2006 整车25Parts&components:10%July 1,2006 零部件10Impact:high-end,luxury cars as imports 豪华车Targeting the newly rich 新富 Local production unlikely 不会地产,38,CBU Characteristics 整车特征(April 1,2005)Import Administration of Automot
24、ive Parts and Components Having Characteristics of CBUs 60%or higher in value:25 tariff,July 1,2006超过整车价值60，按整车征税 EU,US,Japan,Canada,Australia,Mexico:“Violation of WTO rules on localization”违背WTO地产规则 China：”Counter import tariff evasion”“打击逃避关税”Likely solution 解决办法,39,Exterior ID Marks 汽车外部标识Adminis
25、trative Methods on Exterior ID Marks of Automobile Products,February 2006 今年二月实施Government:Made in China 政府规范市场Corporate:Sales 企业销售Consumer:Foreign vs.local brands 消费者心理,40,Consumption Tax,April 1,2006 消费税(%)Sedan/MPV SUVEngine NewOldChangeEngineNewOld Change1.0L-=1.5L 3 5-21.0L-=1.5L 3 3 01.5L-=2.0
26、L 5 5 01.5L-=2.0L 5 3 22.0L-=2.2L 9 5 42.0L-=2.2L 9 3 62.2L-=2.5L 9 8 12.2L-=2.5L 9 3 62.5L-=3.0L 12 8 42.5L-=3.0L12 5 73.0L-=4.0L 15 8 73.0L-=4.0L15 5104.0L 20 8124.0L20 515,Impact:影响,41,Farm vehicles part of automobiles 农用车变为汽车的一部分The Notice on Standardizing the Administration of Three-Wheel Autom
27、obiles and Low-Speed Trucks,June 1,2006 三轮汽车、低速卡车VIN：January 1,2007 汽车识别代号WMI:世界制造识别a)minimum output 3,000/500 最低年产量b)certification 生产许可Application deadline:December 31,2006 申请截至,42,43,Independent Innovation and Brands 自主创新和自主品牌National strategy 国家战略决策From low-cost to technology advantage低成本优势到技术创新优
28、势Ministry of Science&Technology 科技部主导Comments from top leaders 领导人关注Fair competition and support local brands 为自主品牌创造公平竞争环境,44,Emissions and Safety 安全与排放Euro III:Beijing,January 1,2006 欧IIIEuro IV planned for July 1,2007 欧IVFrontal and side-collision 正侧面碰撞法规,45,Other policies and regulations 其他政策法规1
29、.11th Five-Year Plan 十一五规划2.Catalogue of Guidance on Industrial Structure Adjustment 工业结构调整指导目录3.Catalogue of Guidance on Encouraging Foreign Investment 外商投资指导目录4.Compulsory scrap standards 强制报废标准5.Used vehicle sales 二手车流通6.Maintenance&repair 维修与检测7.Compulsory liability insurance 强制责任险,46,Future policies,laws and regulations政策法规走向50:50 equity share control 股比控制Fuel Tax 然油税Independent vehicle brands for new JVs 自主品牌Fair competition:Enterprise income tax:11%vs 23%税收并轨Reduced administrative control 进一步减少行政控制Anti-Monopoly Law 反垄断法,47,Thank You,48,
