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1、图解市场,-1-,古代世界地图,Source:,-2-,当代世界地图,Source:mapresources.om,-3-,未来世界地图,Source:,-4-,约瑟夫 熊彼特的三周期嵌套模式,-5-,长期有多长？,-6-,十年经济周期(朱格拉周期),Source:Thomson Datastream,-7-,道琼斯工业指数:十年周期模式1900-1999,-8-,四年市场周期正好与美国大选周期重叠,Source:Thomson Datastream,-9-,大选周期：每年的经济表现,-10-,历史上月平均股市回报,S&P/TSX Composite Average%gain by month
2、(1969-2005),-11-,著名的钟形曲线，与另外两种不同的特性相结合,-12-,选出真实的市场,Source:The misbehaviour of markets,Bernoit Mandelbrot,-13-,道琼斯工业指数：1960-1980,-14-,道琼斯工业指数 1966-1982:90天美国商业票据200天移动平均值,-15-,人口金字塔模型,-16-,印度人口结构:2000,2025 和 2050,-17-,婴儿潮一代在美国人口金字塔当中的位置:1960-2020,Baby Boom Cohort,Baby Boom Echo,-18-,英国人口结构：2000,2025
3、 和 2050,标准路线图,19,被现实向下趋势扭曲的标准路线图,20,被现实向上趋势扭曲的标准路线图,21,-22-,标普500指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-23-,富时100指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-24-,日经225指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-25-,德国DAX 30指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-26-,希腊Athex综合指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-27-,印度Sensex 30指数,Source:Thomson Datastrea
4、m,-28-,中国沪指,Source:Thomson Datastream,-29-,巴西Bovespa指数,Source:Thomson Datastream,-30-,黄金价格,Source:Thomson Datastream,-31-,贸易加权美元,Source:Thomson Datastream,-32-,欧元/美元,Source:Thomson Datastream,-33-,英镑/美元,Source:Thomson Datastream,-34-,美国30年期国债收益,Source:Thomson Datastream,-35-,免责声明,This document is is
5、sued by Cazenove Capital Management Limited(Cazenove Capital),a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial,investment or other professional advice in any way.Past performance is not necessarily
6、a guide to future performance.Values may fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount you invested.Income from investments may fluctuate.Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value,price or income of investments.You should be aware of the additional risks associa
7、ted with investment in emerging and developing markets.Unregulated collective investment schemes operated in offshore centres are unlikely to offer a level of investor protection equivalent to the UK.Such schemes may deal infrequently and may limit redemptions.Some of the investments we may make on
8、your behalf could be in investment companies which use gearing as a strategy or invest in other investment companies which use gearing,such as investment trusts.The strategy which the issuer of such securities uses or proposes to use may result in movements in the price of the securities being more
9、volatile than the movements in the price of underlying investments.The investment may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and you may get back nothing at all if there is a sufficiently large fall.Where reference is made to structured capital at risk products these are normally required to
10、be held for the full term to preserve the protected capital value,the return at maturity over and above the protected capital value depends on the performance of the corresponding market index and fees,and there is an exposure to the creditworthiness of the issuer for both the protected capital valu
11、e and the return over and above the protected capital value.It is possible to sell the product during the term,but if it is sold before maturity the proceeds of the sale may be less than the original sum invested.This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current op
12、inions,expectations and projections.We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.,中文翻译由中国庄禾投资友情提供。由于译者时间精力有限，译文中难免有疏漏和不当之处，敬请批评指正。Unofficial translation provided by China Zhuanghe Investment Consulting Co.,Ltd.(CZH),中国 北京 建国门内大街7号光华长安大厦A座307室邮编:100005电话:+86 10 5911 1088传真:+86 10 5911 1089联系:,英国 伦敦Add:83 Baker Street,London,W1U 6AG,United KingdomTel:+44(0)20 7034 7924 Contact:,
