《商务英语课件ch03updated.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《商务英语课件ch03updated.ppt（57页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、41,Introduction To Business 4th Edition,Chapter 3 Assessing Economic Conditions管理学院市场学系吴德亮,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,42,Business Environment,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,43,Learning Objectives,Identify macroeconomic factors that affect business performanc
2、e.Explain how market prices are determined.Explain how the government influences economic conditions.,44,Assessing Economic Conditions,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,45,Economic Conditions,Reflect the level of production and consumption for a particular country,area,or industryMac
3、roeconomic conditionsOverall economic state of a countryMicroeconomic conditionsFocus on conditions in a particular business or industry,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,46,Impact of Economic Conditions,Economic conditions can affect:Revenues of a businessExpenses of a businessTotal
4、 value of a business,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,47,Impact of Economic Conditions,Some firms are more sensitive to changes in economic conditions than others:Demand for fast food demand is not very sensitive to declining economic conditions.Demand for new automobiles is more se
5、nsitive to weak economic conditions than food products.,48,Harley Davidson Example,Demand for motorcycles is stronger when:The economy is strong.Customers have more income to buy motorcycles.High demand for Harley Davidsons motorcycles:Generates greater revenue.Improves company performance.,49,Harle
6、y Davidson Example,Demand for motorcycles is weaker when:The economy is weak.Customers have less income to buy motorcycles.Lower demand for Harley Davidsons motorcycles:Generates less revenue.Weakens company performance.,410,Harley Davidson Example,Harley Davidson tries to predict demand so it will
7、have a sufficient supply of motorcycles to meet future demand.Demand for motorcycles depends on economic conditions.Number of motorcycles produced also depends on economic conditions.Government policies also affect economic conditions.,411,Harley Davidson Example,Harley Davidson must determine:How p
8、revailing economic conditions will affect the demand for the motorcycles it produces.How prevailing government policies will affect the demand for its motorcycles.,412,I Macroeconomic Effects,The performance of most firms depends on three macroeconomic factors:Economic growthChanges in the general l
9、evel of economic activityInflationIncreases in general level of prices over specific period of timeInterest ratesChanges in the cost of borrowed money,413,1,Economic Growth,When the change in the general level of economic activity is higher than normal:Total income level of all U.S.workers is relati
10、vely high.There is a higher volume of spending on products and services.Firms that sell products and services should generate higher revenues.,414,Recession,Occurs when economic growth is negative for two consecutive quartersLowers demand for products and servicesReduces the revenue of firms that se
11、ll products and services.Can cause firms to shut down factories in response to low economic growth.General MotorsFord,415,Indicators of Economic Growth,Gross Domestic Product(GDP)The level of total production of products and services in the economyTotal market value of all final products and service
12、s produced in the U.S.Aggregate ExpendituresTotal amount of expenditures,416,Indicators of Economic Growth,In the U.S.,these indicators are closely related:High level of consumer spending reflects a large demand for products and services.Total production level depends on total demand for products an
13、d services.,417,Alternative Indicators of Economic Growth,Unemployment levelIndustrial production levelNew housing startsPersonal income level,418,Unemployment Levels,Frictional unemploymentPeople who are between jobs.Seasonal unemploymentPeople whose services are not needed during some seasons.,Cyc
14、lical unemploymentPeople unemployed due to poor economic conditions.Best indicator of economic conditions.Structural unemploymentPeople who do not have adequate skills.,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,419,2,Inflation,An increase in the general level of prices of products and servic
15、es over a specified period of time.Estimated by measuring percentage changes in the consumer price index(CPI).CPI is a market basket of prices on a wide variety of consumer products:Grocery products,housing,gasoline,medical services,electricity,etc.,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,
16、420,Impact of Inflation,Can affect a companys operating expensesCan increase cost of supplies and materials.Can impact indexed wages(labor cost).Higher inflation can cause large increases in operating expenses.Can affect a companys revenuesCompanies may charge higher prices to compensate for their h
17、igher expenses.,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,421,Cost-Push Inflation,Occurs when firms must charge higher prices because their production(input)costs are higher.Change in price of oil impacts gasoline prices and transportation costs.Change in aluminum prices impacts packaging co
18、st of beer production.Change in pulp prices impacts the cost of paper towel production.,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,422,Demand-Pull Inflation,Occurs when product and services prices are pulled up by consumer demand.Strong consumer demand can cause shortages in the production of
19、 products.Firms that anticipate shortages may increase prices for their products.Strong consumer demand may put pressure on wages and reduce unemployment.Firms may increase prices to recover higher operating expenses.,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,423,3,Interest Rates,Represent t
20、he cost of borrowing moneyFirms interest expense is based on market interest rates and can have significant impact on a firms profitability.Firms may postpone expansion and other projects when interest rates are too high.Interest rates also impact a firms revenueThe increased cost of financing new h
21、omes reduces demand for new homes.Revenues for construction firms and equipment manufacturers also decline.,424,business online,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,425,II Market Price Determination,Market price of a product is influenced by:The total demand for that product by all cust
22、omersSupply of that product produced by firmsThe interaction between demand and supply determines the market price.,426,Demand and Supply,Demand schedule 需求曲线Indicates the quantity of the product that would be demanded by customers at each possible price.Quantity demanded is higher when the price is
23、 lower._ Quantity Demanded（Qd:有效需求）,427,How the Equilibrium Price is Determined by Supply and Demand,Exhibit 4.6a,428,How the Equilibrium Price is Determined by Supply and Demand,Exhibit 4.6b,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,429,Demand and Supply(contd),Supply schedule 供给曲线Indicates
24、 the quantity of the product that would be supplied(produced)by manufacturers at each possible price.Quantity supplied(produced)is higher when the price is higher.Quantity supplied（Qs:有效供给）,430,Interaction of Supply and Demand,Interaction of demand and supply schedules determines the market priceSur
25、plus（过剩）:the quantity supplied by firms is more than the quantity demanded by customers.Shortage（短缺）:the quantity supplied by firms is less than the quantity demanded by customers.Equilibrium price（均衡价格）:occurs when quantities supplied and demanded are equal.,431,Impact of Shifts in Demand,Changing
26、conditions can cause a demand schedule or supply schedule for a specific product to change.Changes the equilibrium price of a product.Increased product popularity(demand)results in a shortage of the product.The shortage is corrected when the price is increased to the level at which the quantity supp
27、lied equals the quantity demanded.,432,How the Equilibrium Price is Affected by a Change in Demand,Exhibit 4.7,433,How the Equilibrium Price is Affected by a Change in Demand,Exhibit 4.7,434,Impact of Shifts in Supply,Change in supply can impact the equilibrium price of the product.Technological imp
28、rovements can lead to reduced production costs causing firms to produce a larger supply at any given price.The supply schedule changes and yields a surplus which can be sold only by lowering the price.The surplus is eliminated when the price decreases to a level at which the quantity supplied equals
29、 the quantity demanded.,435,How the Equilibrium Price is Affected by a Change in Supply,Exhibit 4.8,436,How the Equilibrium Price is Affected by a Change in Supply,Exhibit 4.8,437,Factors Influencing Market Prices,Consumer incomeDetermines the amount of products and services individuals can purchase
30、High levels of economic growth result in more income for consumers.Increased demand causes demand schedule shifts and price increases.When consumer income declines:Demand decreases and creates a surplus as the demand schedule shifts and prices decrease.,438,Factors Influencing Market Prices,Changes
31、in consumer tastes and preferences:Impact the quantity of products and services demanded by consumersIncreased demand leads to price increase.Decreased demand leads to price decrease.,439,Factors Influencing Market Prices,Change in production expensesA decrease in expenses can lead to increase in qu
32、antity supplied and create a surplus.Firms must lower prices in order to eliminate the surplus.An increase in expenses can lead to decrease in quantity supplied and create a shortage.Firms can increase prices until shortage is corrected.,440,IIIow the government influences economic conditions,，Monet
33、ary policyMade by the Federal Reserve System“Fed”is the central bank of the U.S.Decisions by Fed about the money supply:Impact interest rates.Impact firms interest expenses.Impact demand for products purchased with borrowed funds.,441,Feds Impact on Interest Rates,Maintains funds outside the banking
34、 system that are not loanable to firms or individualsUsed to buy Treasury securities held by individuals and companiesProvide individuals and firms with new funds for deposit in commercial banksDeposits increase the money supply and the supply of loanable funds.Should result in decreased interest ra
35、tes and stimulate economic growth.,442,Feds Impact on Interest Rates,Fed can pull funds out of commercial banks and other financial institutions to reduce the money supply.Reduces the supply of funds available to lend to borrowers(shortage)causing:Interest rates to increase.Individuals and companies
36、 to borrow less.Spending levels to decrease.The level of inflation to decline.,443,，Fiscal Policy,How the federal government sets tax rates and spends money:Personal income tax ratesReduced tax rates produce higher after-tax incomes that stimulate spending and increase demand for products and servic
37、es.Corporate taxesImpacts after-tax earningsExcise taxesTaxes on particular products that increase prices consumers pay for these products.,444,Fiscal Policy,Sets the amounts of federal tax revenue government and federal spendingFederal budget deficitOccurs when federal spending exceeds federal taxe
38、s and other revenue collected by the federal government.Government borrowing to make up the difference creates higher demand for loanable funds and can drive up interest rates.,445,Example of How a Budget Deficit Occurs,Exhibit 4.9,446,How Government Policies Affect Business Performance,Exhibit 4.10
39、,447,Federal Governments Dilemma,A restrictive monetary or fiscal policy can be used to:Maintain low rate of economic growthPrevent inflationary pressure caused by excessive demandCan also create unemploymentAlso requires a trade-off,448,Chapter Summary,Firm performance depends on three macroeconomi
40、c factors:economic growth,inflation,and interest rates.Demand and supply conditions determine market prices.Federal government uses monetary and fiscal policies to influence macroeconomic conditions.,449,Scanning Macroenvironmental conditions for Threat and Opportunities,1，Macroeconomic environmentD
41、emographic environment-the size and growth rate of population in different cities,regions and nations age distribution and ethic mix,educational level,household patterns,and regional characteristics and movementEconomic environmentNatural environmentTechnological environment,450,Political and legal
42、environmentSocial/cultural environment,451,II SWOT analysis S:strength W:weaknesses O:opportunities T:threat,452,III Scanning macroenvironment for opportunities and threats,453,Opportunity Matrix,Success probabilityA high lowttrac hightiv ne lowss,454,Threat Matrix,Probability of occurrencesse high
43、low rio highusne lowss,455,Technical terms,Aggregate expenditure:总支出Cost-push inflation：成本推动型通货膨胀Cyclical unemployment：周期性失业Demand schedule 需求曲线Quantity demanded 有效需求Demand-pull inflation 需求拉动型通货膨胀Economic growth 经济增长Equilibrium price 均衡价格Exercise taxes 消费税Federal budget deficit 财政赤字Federal reserve
44、system 联邦储备系统（美联储）,456,Fiscal policy 财政政策Frictional unemployment 摩擦性失业Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Monetary policy 货币政策Recession 经济衰退Seasonal unemployment 季节性失业Shortage 短缺Structural unemployment 结构性失业 Supply schedule 供给曲线Quantity supplied 有效供给Surplus 过剩,Copyright 2004 South-Western.All rights reserved.,457,Exercises,
