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1、Small Business Scoring小企业评分,September,20042004年9月,Cheryl St John,Agenda议程,Project scope项目范围Small business pooled models小企业集合模型Preliminary results in Latin America在拉丁美洲的初步成效Next Steps后续步骤,Agenda议程,Project scope项目范围Small business pooled models小企业集合模型Preliminary results in Latin America在拉丁美洲的初步成效Next S
2、teps后续步骤,Small business in Latin America拉丁美洲的小企业,Economic growth and social development by being the leading source of employment作为最重要的就业渠道促进经济增长和社会发展In Colombia the small business sector employs 63%of work force在哥伦比亚小企业雇佣了63的劳动力In Mexico 78%of work force在墨西哥小企业雇佣了78的劳动力Majority of production is for
3、 internal consumption大部分产品供国内消费Colombia 25%internal production 哥伦比亚25国内产品Mexico 68%internal production墨西哥68国内产品Credit availability plays a fundamental role for survival of the small business信用的可得性对小企业的生存起着基础性的作用Small businesses have limited access to funding and consequently to the newest technology
4、小企业融资渠道受到限制从而导致最新技术的使用受到限制,Small business in Latin America拉丁美洲的小企业,Investigate deficiencies in small business credit小企业信用的调查研究不足No business plan 没有商业计划Legal constitution 法律章程Access to credit 得到信用的途径Sources of credit信用的来源Own resources 自己的财力 reinvestment of revenues and capital from partners收入再投资及从股东处
5、取得的资本Credit from providers 从供应商处得到的信用 short term credit,high interest rates and guarantee短期信用，高利率和保证Family and friends 亲属和朋友Bank medium to long credit term.一小部分的小企业能取得这种中期到长期的信用形式,Deficiencies in the small business lending 小企业借款缺乏,Identify improvements in the banking and lending industry to allow sm
6、all businesses growth and development认识银行业和贷款企业在允许小企业成长和发展中的进步Manage overall portfolio risk 控制总业务量风险Streamline operations for increased cost efficiencies优化操作以增进成本效率 Increase number of profitable relationships增加可获利的关系 Identify predictive data elements to analyze the credit risk识别有预测性的数据要素来分析信用风险,How
7、scoring technology can help the lenders?评分技术是怎样帮助贷款人的呢？,Reduces cost by increasing efficiency and speed通过增加效率和速度来减少成本Make consistent ranking of risk and objective decisions 建立一致的风险评分等级和客观决策Accurate risk prediction精确的风险预测Majority of risk identified at origination!大多数的风险在产生时就会被识别出来！Competitive edge竞争优
8、势 Faster response times更快的反应时期Better risk assessment更好的风险估计,Agenda议程,Project scope项目范围Small business pooled models小企业集合模型Preliminary results in Latin America在拉丁美洲的初步成效Next Steps后续步骤,Fair Isaac expertise with financial institutionsFair Isaac 为金融机构提供专门技术,Small business definition-United States小企业的定义美国
9、,Annual Sales of up to$5 million 年销售额最高达到5百万美元Credit of up to$250,000信用最高达到25万美元Types of Small Businesses:小企业的类型：Sole Proprietors个体所有者Partnerships合伙企业Corporations公司,The beginning of Small Business Scoring Service(SBSS)in the United States小企业评分机构在美国的起步,Fair Isaac partners with Robert Morris Associate
10、s(RMA)Fair Isaac 与Robert Morris Associates(RMA)成为合伙企业17 banks each contribute 100 goods,100 bads,100 declines17家银行每一家都提供100家好的，100家坏的，100家信用下降的小企业的资料Precoding sheets filled out by hand手工填写预先编好的表格Paper credit bureau reports纸质的信用局报告Fair Isaac data entry staff creates electronic databaseFair Isaac 的数据输
11、入人员创建了电子数据库1995-Fair Isaac SBSS releases the first empirically derived commercial scorecards1995年，Fair Issac 小企业评分机构发布了首批完全来自于实际数据的商业记分卡,Small Business Pooled Models improvements小企业集合模型的进步,Over 250,000 small businesses contributed by 25 banks25家银行提供的25万多家小企业信息Data extracted electronically from appli
12、cation processing and master billing file systems 100%availability of consumer bureau information从申请处理和主帐单文件系统中电子化提取的数据，消费信用局信息100可得Business data provides increase in predictive power商业数据提高了预测力Application 申请Business reports 商业报告Financial statements 财务报表2001-Fair Isaac releases second generation of c
13、ommercial scorecards2001年，Fair Isaac 发布了第二代商业记分卡Currently building the New Small Business Pooled Models现在正在建立新的小企业集合模型,Small business scoring pooled models in Asia亚洲的小企业评分集合模型,Pooled Models in Japan日本的集合模型Over 3,500 small businesses contributed by 13 banks13家银行提供的3500多家小企业信息Data transferred from app
14、lication processing and master billing file systems and availability of consumer bureau information从申请处理和主帐单文件系统中传出的数据及消费信用局信息的可得性Business data provides increase in predictive power商业数据提高了预测力Application 申请Business reports 商业报告Financial statements 财务报表Currently building pooled models in China现在正在中国建立
15、集合模型,Agenda议程,Project scope方案范围Fair Isaac experienceFair Isaac的经验 Small business pooled models小企业集合模型Preliminary results in Latin America拉丁美洲的初步成效Next Steps后续步骤,Small business definition-Latin America小企业的定义拉丁美洲,COLOMBIA 哥伦比亚Number of Employees up to 200雇员人数最高达到200Annual Sales of up to$1 million 年销售额
16、最高达到1百万美元Credit of up to$200,000信用最高达到20万美元Types of Small Businesses:小企业的类型：Sole Proprietors 个体经营者Partnerships 合伙企业Corporations 公司,MEXICO 墨西哥Number of Employees up to 100雇员人数最高达到100Annual Sales of up to$500,000年销售额最高达到50万美元Credit of up to$200,000信用最高达到20万美元Types of Small Businesses:小企业的类型：Sole Propr
17、ietors 个体经营者Partnerships 合伙企业Corporations 公司,There is no consistent definition within lenders in Latin America.在拉丁美洲贷款人对小企业没有一致的定义,Distribution by business activity经济活动分布,COLOMBIA 哥伦比亚,MEXICO 墨西哥,Acceptance and booked rates接受率和登记率,Distribution of delinquencies违约的分布,Application processing time处理申请的时间
18、,D AYS天数,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,Colombia 哥伦比亚,Mexico 墨西哥,Agenda议程,Project scope项目范围Fair Isaac experience Fair Isaac 的实践经验Small business pooled models小企业集合模型Preliminary results in Latin America在拉丁美洲的初步成效Next Steps后续步骤,Pooled data development sampling集合数据发展抽样,A random representative portion of accounts with
19、known payment behavior plus declined accounts一部分随机的有代表性的已知支付行为的帐户加上信用下降的帐户Data provided by all institutions participating in the pool所有参与这个集合的机构所提供的数据Predictive information and performance information预测性的信息和表现信息,Data sources-Personal information about principals数据来源主要负责人的个人信息,Application申请Financial
20、information财务信息Consumer credit reports消费者信用报告,Value of data数据的价值,High高,Business企业的,Personal个人的,Size of Company公司的规模,Low低,Small小,Large大,Value 价值,Report for participants给参与者的报告,Lending practices贷款操作List of valuable variable that could be use for future model development or strategies可能对未来模型的发展或战略有价值的变量的列表Summary of individual portfolio performance个别资产组合表现的总结Validation of questionnaire responses调查问卷回答的确认,Small Business Scoring小企业评分,Questions&Answers问题与回答,
