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1、Technologys Future:Breaking down Barriers,Rick RashidMicrosoft Research,Technology in the late 20th century,Moores LawComputers double in power every 18 monthsPrice/performance1,000,000X boost in last 20 years1,000,000X more in the next 20 yearsMoores Law true for last 35 yearsLikely to continue for
2、 at least 35 more years,Exponential change means,The future rapidly washes away the past,Exponential change means.,More computing will take place in the next 10 years than in the previous history of mankind,Exponential change means.,Everything up to now doesnt count,and you aint seen nothing yet,Eve
3、n more rapid change in graphics,storage and networking technologies will shape the next ten years,Technology building momentum,GraphicsFactor of 100 improvement over 3 years,Technology building momentum,StorageFactor of 7 improvement in 2 years,Technology building momentum,Network bandwidthFactor of
4、 64 improvement in 3 yearsFactor of 2 every 6 months,New Technologies on the Horizon,New Technologies(e.g.Dalton Group,Univ.of Wash.)Nanoscale materials and processingSingle Wall Carbon Nanotube ActuatorsCondensed Matter TheoryMany-body,long-range,spatial-anisotropic interactionsPolymeric Electro-Op
5、tic Modulator MaterialsHigh Frequency Modulators;VLSI Integration;1 voltSensors&detectors,EO signal transducers,Optical switches,Spatial light modulators,Oscillators,Phased array radar,A/D converters,Optical gyroscopes,AmplifiersNew opportunities100 GHz local area networks1 THz wide area networkElec
6、tro-optic backplanes and interconnects,Technology in 21st century:Breaking down barriers,The“reality”barrierGraphics,vision,signal processingBarriers between peopleCollaboration and communications toolsBarriers between people and computersUI,language,speech,vision,Barriers between people and informa
7、tionDatabases,data mining,scalable computingBarriers between computersHigh speed networkingBarriers between work,car,home,etc.Adaptive systems,wireless computing,Breaking the”reality”barrier,By 2001 we will be close to“Toy Story”style graphics generated in real-time on PCsWithin 5-10 years a PC game
8、 will be on par with“reality”,The Virtual“Me”,Generating life-like speech,Data-driven stochastic speechNatural soundingRapid,automatic customizabilityExamplesSynthetic voice w/transplanted speech contours,Artificial singing,AT&T Voder,1962,by Homer DudleyDaisy(Inspiration for HALs voice in 2001)Micr
9、osoft Research Whistler,1997Scarborough Fair,Breaking down barriers between people,SideshowTechnology to help people coordinate with others and stay aware of important information in their worldI-CamCreating better virtual meetings,lectures and training courses,Sideshow,I have 2 new messages Next mt
10、g in 50 minsLiwei is availableKeith is not availableBarry is not available,and hes sent me a new messageNumber of changes made in this folderMilestone 1 code status(number of bugs assigned to me,spec changes,number of changes to source code)People who have responded to my invitationStatus of my eBay
11、 auctionStatus of my Dell PC order,I-CAM:Creating better virtual meeting places,EnableSimple broadcast/capture of meetingsMeetings anywhere,any timeExploreNew camera systemsNew software control systemsMultiple person tracking&speaker trackingVirtual video directorAutomated Interfaces,MSR Ring Camera
12、,Low cost$300High quality3000 x 500 pixelsEasy to deploy,Automated Meeting Interfaces,Software solution:Tracking cameras,microphone arrays,Video production rules from professionalsMapping of rules to cameras and software video directorResults:Human operator better,but difference is not statistically
13、 significantPeople could not distinguish which operator was human and which was computer,Breaking down barriers between people and computers,HandwritingSpeechComputer visionNatural language processing,Analyzing language,Language recognition shipped in Word 97General purpose text-critiquing,summariza
14、tion,Japanese word-breaking,Inside The Office Grammar Checker,Understanding language:MindNet,A huge language knowledge baseAutomatically created from dictionariesWords(nodes)linked by relationships Millions of linksNow adding(Encarta)encyclopedia knowledge,Is_a,Locn_of,make,Is_a,Typ_obj,Typ_subj,Is_
15、a,Part,Not_is_a,Is_a,Is_a,Is_a,Part,Part_of,Typ_subj_of,Typ_obj,wing,Is_a,Is_a,Is_a,Means,Typ_subj,Is_a,Means,Typ_subj,Typ_obj,Is_a,Is_a,Is_a,Typ_0bj_of,Is_a,Cause,Purpose,egg,Is_a,Purpose,Typ_obj,Quesp,hen,chicken,Is_a,Is_a,Is_a,Is_a,Is_a,Typ_subj_of,Mindnet Applications,Information RetrievalData m
16、iningQuestion answeringSpoken language understandingNatural language translation,Breaking down barriers between people and information,“Personal”terabyte databasesDatabase auto-administrationDatamining,The Terabyte PC 2004,What will I store on my terabyte PC?All the transactions my small-to-medium s
17、ize business will ever make All of my personal data from birth to deathCalendars,notes,letters,photosAn entire lifetime of conversations,TerraServer:The“Whole Earth”Database,TerraServer Hardware,SQLInst1,SQLInst2,SQLInst3,Spare,One SQL database per rackEach rack contains 4.5 tb261 total drives/13.7
18、TB total,Meta DataStored on 101 GB“Fast,Small Disks”(18 x 18.2 GB),Imagery DataStored on 4 339 GB“Slow,Big Disks”(15 x 73.8 GB),Added 90 72.8 GBDisks in Dec 2000to create 18 TB SAN,8 Compaq DL360“Photon”Web Servers,Fiber SANSwitches,4 Compaq ProLiant 8500 Db Servers,TerraServer Growth,Dec 01,SQL 7.0
19、1.0 TB Db,SQL 20001.0 TB Db,SQL 20001.0 TB Db,SQL 20001.0 TB Db,SQL 20002.0 TB Db,SQL 20002.0 TB Db,SQL 20002.0 TB Db,1 Server/Win NT 4.0 EE,2nd Server/Win 2k DataCenter,4 Node/Win2k Datacenter Failover Cluster,668 m Rows,900 m Rows,Unique Users Page Views Image Tiles Db Queries Bytes Xfered,TerraSe
20、rver Experience,Successful Web Site50,000 daily users satisfied with“human-accessible”data59 GB imagery transmitted dailyNew Feature RequestsProgrammable access to meta-dataUser selectable image sizes,i.e.“a map server”Permission to use TerraServer data within server applications,To the rescue!,.NET
21、 TerraService Architecture,ExistingDB Server,SQL 20001.0 TB Db,SQL 20001.0 TB Db,SQL 20001.0 TB Db,668 m Rows,TerraServer Web Service,OLEDB,Map Server Http Handler,Map UI Web Forms,StandardBrowsers,XML,HTML,Image/jpeg,Image/jpeg,Production ApplicationTerraServer Web Services,TerraServer/TerraService
22、,Spin-off ProjectsSloan Digital Sky SurveyPhotoServer(SQL version)Example.NET ServiceFall MIT.NET course built around TerraServiceKey Links,Breaking down the barriers between computers,WAN bandwidth doubling every 6 monthsWANs faster than LANs OC-192 vs.Gigabit EthernetSteeper WAN bandwidth increase
23、 curve,Windows 2000:Gigabit to the Desktop,Supercomputer 99 demonstration of Gigabit Wide Area Networking(WAN)with Windows 2000Gigabit application-to-application over 300km(from MS/UW to Portland)Joint project between MS/MSR,UW,NCSA,NSF,DARPA,any othersInternet2“Land-Speed”RecordNearly 1Gbit/sec app
24、lication speed over 5600KM w/desktop PCs,Breaking down barriers between work,home,office,car,etc.,Adaptive systemsPriorities and MSR Notification PlatformWireless networkingMobile devices,Priorities,Cross-device experience:desktop/mobileEmail,appointments,remindersLearns about time-critical messages
25、Monitors,learns patterns of user presenceConsiders urgency,calendar,activity,?,Track presence,durations of absence,conditioned on calendar,time of day,time away,etc.Compute probability distribution over time until user expected back Coordination,communication applications,Priorities Availability For
26、ecasting:Learning a Users Presence Patterns,Automated Setting of Availability,Selective OOF with Return Forecast,Environmental computing,Computers embedded into everythingComputing is“just there”The environment adjusts to us,Video:Easy Living,The New Future?,Were at an inflection point in what compu
27、ters can do for individualsGraphics soon to rival realityAlmost unlimited storageAlmost unlimited bandwidthRules have changed,what was impractical is now rationale3D faster than 2DIndividuals can store the Internet on their own PCs,Microsoft Research:Breaking down the Barriers,Software that can crea
28、te“visual reality”and even simulate real world physics“Human”User InterfacesSoftware that can see,speak,listen&learnVirtual conferencing and new forms of collaboration,communication and learningRegional and national computing clusters that support hundreds of millions of usersTruly mobile officesInvisible computing,
