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1、规划与决策Planning&Decision Making,Chapter3-2,62,Definition-决策,Decision-Making a choice from two or more alternatives.在两个或多个选项中作出选择Low level to high level managers make decisions.All organizational members make decisions that affect their jobs and organization they work for.,63,Universality of decision m
2、aking,Managers at all levels make decisions，but particularly important to managersDecision making is part of all four managerial functions-Planning,Organizing,Leading,and ControllingMaking decisions is the essence of the management.Managers are called decision makers,How do you make decisions?,入学考试面
3、试题：为何考上海大学？考进了大学你准备做什么？未来的职业设想是什么？你们的回答：上海大学很美丽、很有名我要认真学习，考证书？,74,决策常见的问题,片面短见感性即刻满足前后矛盾短期决策与长期目标不一致等等,75,How do managers make decisions?,管理者如何作出贤明的决定？,76,67,Contents,Eight Steps in the Decision-Making ProcessThree Ways Managers Make DecisionsDecisions and Decision-Making ConditionsDecision-Making S
4、tyles and how biases affect decision making Challenges for decision makers(add.)Effective Decision Making TechniquesSituations of decision making,Chapter3,What are the general factors affecting managers decision making?影响决策的因素,ProcessApproachesTypes of decisionsConditionsManagersObjectivesErrors and
5、 Biases,78,79,1.The Decision-Making Process,决策过程,710,Exhibit 71The Decision-Making Process,P179,The Decision-Making Process includes Eight steps from identifying a problem to evaluating the decision effectiveness,出处：罗宾斯 管理学13e,决策过程,Source:RobertN.LussierConcepts,Applications,Skill Development4e,711,
6、612,2.The Ways Managers Making Decisions,管理者的决策方法,613,2.1 Rational Decision Making approach 理性决策,D Assumptions of RationalityManagers make consistent,value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions to decision makers:TheyAre perfectly rational,fully objective,and logical.明确目标，彻底逻辑，完全
7、理性Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.清晰界定问题和全部选项Have a clear and specific goal 明确具体目标Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.满足组织最大利益,614,2.2 Bounded Rationality DM Approach 有限理性
8、决策,D Bounded Rationality（有限理性）Decision making thats rational,but are limited(bounded)by an individuals ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill satisfiedchoose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily
9、 solves the problemrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.Ex:To find a job,Most decisions that managers make dont fit the assumptions of perfect rationality,so they satisfice,715,616,后期决策受前期决策影响,Bounded Rationality（有限理性）Bounded ration
10、al decision making influenced byOrganizations culture,internal politics,power considerations,and Escalation of commitment（承诺升级）:an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.Ex:Challenger space shuttle disaster,617,2.3 Intuitive Decision-making approach
11、直觉决策,The Role of IntuitionIntuitive decision making（直觉决策）Is making decisions on the basis of experience,feelings,and accumulated judgment.,618,Exhibit 76What is Intuition?Five Different Aspects of Intuition,Source:Based on L.A.Burke and M.K.Miller,“Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making
12、,”Academy of Management Executive,October 1999,pp.9199.,P184,潜意识决策,情感决策,认知决策,经验决策,价值道德决策,直觉,719,3 Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions 决策类型与决策条件,720,3.1 Types of Problems&Decisions问题类型与决策类型,Structured ProblemsProgrammed DecisionUnstructured Problems Nonprogrammed Decision,621,3.1 Types
13、of Decisions,Structured Problems and Programmed DecisionsStructured Problems 结构性问题Definition:Straightforward,familiar,and easily defined problems 直接、熟悉并容易界定的问题Involve goals that clear.Are familiar(have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and c
14、omplete.Example:a server in a restaurant spills a drink on a customers coatProgrammed Decisions 程序化决策Definition:A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.Example:The manager offers to have the coat cleaned at restaurants expense,622,(1)Programmed decision 程序化决策,Policy（政策）A gene
15、ral guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.Procedure（程序）A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond(applying a policy)to a structured problem.Rule（规则）An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.,623,Example-Policy,Procedure,a
16、nd Rule,Policy（政策）Accept all customer-returned merchandise.Procedure（程序）Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.Rules（规则）Managers must approve all refunds over$50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.,624,Problems and Decisions(contd),Unstructured Problems and Nonpro
17、grammed Decisions Unstructured Problems 结构不良问题Definition:Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed Decisions 非程序化决策Definition:A unique and nonrecurring decision that requires a custom-made solu
18、tion 唯一的和不可重复的决策。Decisions that generate unique responses.,725,Exhibit 77Programmed versus Nonprogrammed Decisions,P187,726,3.2 Decision-Making Conditions 决策制定条件,Certainty（确定性）Definition:A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is k
19、nown.Example:where to deposit moneyRisk（风险性）Definition:A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood(probability)of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.Example:next page,P187,627,Decision-Making Conditions,Uncertainty（不确定性）Definition:A situation in w
20、hich a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates availableLimited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition.,628,Decision-Making Conditions,An Example of Decision-M
21、aking in an Uncertainty ConditionMaximax:the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffMaximin:the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffMinimax:the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.,629,Exhibit 79Payoff Matrix,Example:Which Strategy Will U Choose?,Suppos
22、e you are a sales manager of VISA,P189,罗宾斯 管理学,630,Exhibit 79Payoff Matrix,Maxmax choice,Maxmin choice,P189,631,Exhibit 710Regret Matrix,Minimax choice,P190,24-13=24-9=24-24=24-18=,21-14=21-15=21-21=21-14=,28-11=28-18=28-15=28-28=,632,Review,Decision-Making in an Uncertainty Condition利益可能性的最大化抉择 Max
23、imax:the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoff(Think about the largest Possible gain)利益最低可能性的最大化决策 Maximin:the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff(Think about the lowest Possible gain)后悔程度最小化决策 Minimax:the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.(Think a
24、bout minimizing the Possible regret),633,4.Decision-Making Styles 决策者的风格,线性有逻辑的非线性直觉的集体参与的决策个人独断的决策当机立断式深思熟虑式恰到好处式,634,4.1 Linear-Non linear thinking style profile,Linear thinking style,Nonlinear thinking style,A decision style characterized by a persons preference for using external data and facts
25、and processing this information through rational,logical thinking,A decision style characterized by a persons preference for internal sources of information and processing this information with internal insights,feelings,and hunches直觉.,635,Exhibit 711Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases,4.2 12 D
26、ecision-Making Biases and Errors,P191,636,4.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and Errors,Heuristics 启示法Using“rules of thumb”to simplify decision making.1）Overconfidence Bias 自负偏见Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.2）Immediate Gratification Bias 即时满足偏见Choosing alternati
27、ves that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.,637,Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd),3）Anchoring Effect 锚定效应Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.4）Selective Perception Bias 选择认识偏见Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the deci
28、sion makers biased perceptions.5）Confirmation Bias 证实偏见Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.,638,Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd),6）Framing Bias 框架效应偏见Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspec
29、ts.7）Availability Bias 有效性（眼前）偏向Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.8）Representation Bias 典型性偏见Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.9）Randomness Bias 随机性偏见Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.,639,Decision-Making Biases and
30、 Errors(contd),10）Sunk Costs Errors 沉没成本错误Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.11）Self-Serving Bias 自利性偏向Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.12）Hindsight Bias 后见偏向Mistakenly believing that an event
31、could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known(after-the-fact).,How to avoid decision making bias and errors,1.Being aware of them and then not using them2.Managers also should pay attention to“how”they make decisions and try to identify the heuristics they typically use and critically e
32、valuate how appropriate those are.3.Helps from people around to identify weaknesses in their decision-making style,and try to improve them,4.3 Overview of Managerial Decision Making,Exhibit 712 Overview of Managerial Decision Making 管理决策汇总图,P192,Linear thinking styleNonlinear thinking style,Immediat
33、e time taken decision making styleAutocratic（个人）-Participative（集体）decision making style,Dealing with complex streams of decisions,742,Be positive!,Positively make your decisionsNot passively,743,5.Situations of decision making 决策的情形,Time-时间是否充裕Information-信息与否充分Acceptance-相关者是否接受程度Ablity-能力是否匹配,744,Situational Management Decision-Making Model,745,决策的情形,746,小组作业-第三周问题：,分析翻译行业面临的外部情形，根据作业模拟条件限制情形，草拟一份创业计划书分析崇明岛的休闲旅游市场情形，以及自行车休闲旅游业务特征，根据模拟案例给出的条件限制，分析决策：是否要实施业务多元化？,747,748,
