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1、ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU,sSouthernNeighbourhoodOpportunitiesfortheEUGreenDealThestudyispublishedintheframeworkoftheCascadingClimateImpacts(CASCADES)Project(2019-2023),fundedthroughtheEuropeanCommissionsHorizon2020programme,seewww.cascades.eu.ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU,sSouthernNeighbou
2、rhood:OpportunitiesfortheEUGreenDealHannahAbdullah1KarimElgendyandHanneKnaepenNovember2021Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanicalincludingphotocopying,recordingoranyinformationstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutthepriorwrittenper
3、missionofthecopyrightholder.Pleasedirectallenquiriestothepublishers.Photocredit:CopyrightiStockContentsAcknowledgements4Summary5Introduction71. UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthern11Neighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilience2. Acloserlookaturbanresilienceinthreecities163. BringingtheGreenDealtotheSou
4、thern24Neighbourhood:Anopportunitytostepupcooperationwithcitiesaroundthewater-energy-foodnexusRecommendations2737Bibliography30AbouttheauthorsAcknowledgementsWewouldliketothankthefollowingfortheircontributiontothisreport:SarahArbezofCitesUniesLiban;HajarKhamlichiofMediterraneanYouthClimateNetwork;Ab
5、dellatifMahmoudofAssociationFederativedesExpertsetConsultantsdeIaCooperationTechniqueInternationale(AFECTI);MohamedSefiani,MayorofChefchaouen;GladaLahnandChrisAylettoftheEnvironmentandSocietyProgrammeatChathamHouse;AutumnForecast,RichCarterandIanBlenkinsopofSoapbox;andSarahFinch.SummaryCitiesintheMi
6、ddleEastandNorthAfricaarealreadysufferingtheeffectsofclimatechange.Weakurbanregulation,ineffectiveclimatepolicies,limiteddecentralizationandinsufficientempowermentoflocalauthoritiesandcivilsocietyfurtherdecreaseurbanresilience.Futureclimatescenariosandprojectedurbangrowththreatenthestabilityofthereg
7、ion;withpotentialnegativeknock-oneffectsonEurope.ThisCASCADESSpotlightStudyexaminesclimatevulnerabilitiesinurbanareasincountriestothesouthoftheEUandthewiderMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionandadvocatesforsystemicapproachestoaddressingurbanclimateresiliencebystrengtheningthewater-energy-foodnexus,aswell
8、asotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.ItconcludeswithrecommendationsonhowtheEuropeanGreenDealcanhelpcitiesintheregionadapttoclimateimpacts,basedonawater-energy-foodnexusapproach.Overthepasttwodecades,theEuropeanCommissionhassteppedupitssupportforurbanclimateactionandresilience.Anincreasingnum
9、berofprogrammesfinancedundertheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP)Southhaveaddressedurbanclimateresilienceinresponsetotheregionsrapidurbanizationandthehighclimatevulnerabilityofcities.ThenumberofurbandwellersinthewiderMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionisestimatedtoreach527millionin2050,anincreaseof72%compa
10、redto2020.Atthesametime,climateimpacts-includingbothslowonsetchangesandsuddendisasters-areputtingadditionalstressonurbaninfrastructure.Thisstressisaggravatedbyweakurbanregulationsthathavecreatedunsustainabledevelopmenttrendswhichunderminethepotentialbenefitsofurbanizationandadverselyaffecturbanclima
11、teresilience.Theprevalenceofhighlycentralizedadministrativesystemsandincompletedecentralizationreformshamperlocalcapacitybuildinganddecisionmaking,whichareprerequisitesforeffectiveadaptationandresilience.Theconvergenceoftheregion,sharshclimaticnditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassocia
12、tedsocio-economicburdenscanexacerbateexistingpoliticalinstability,conflict-inducedmigrationandpoverty.ThesedevelopmentscouldcascadeintotheEU,alteringsecurity,tradeanddiplomaticrelationswiththeSouthernNeighbourhood.TheEU,sevolvingapproachtoworkingwithlocalauthoritiesonurbaninfrastructureandclimategov
13、ernanceisafirststeptowardsaddressingtheregionsintertwinedurbanandclimatecrises.However,thisapproachisstillintheearlystagesandthereisaneedtoreflectonlessonslearnedandhowurbanspaces,climatesandgovernanceareevolvingintheregion.ThisstudysuggeststhattheEllsoverwhelmingfocusonsupportingcitiesintheregionwi
14、thenergyefficiencyandthetransitiontosustainableenergysystemsisnotenoughtostrengthenurbanclimateresilience.IncitiesoftheSouthernNeighbourhood,whichtypicallystrugglewithresourcemanagementandscarcity,climateresiliencewillincreasinglydependonlocalcapacitiestoformulateandimplementnexusapproaches,especial
15、lyinthewater,energyandfoodsectors.Basedoncasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediaryurbanareas,thestudyadvocatesforasystemicapproachtoaddressingurbanclimateresilienceinSouthernNeighbourhoodcities.Consideringtheestablishedeffectivenessofapplyingawater-energy-foodnexusapproachtoimprovingclimateresilience,t
16、hepaperstressestheneedforlocalgovernmentstoexplorenexusopportunitiesbetweenthewater,energyandfoodsectorsinordertoachieveresilientandsustainableurbanism,whilealsohighlightingotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.ItconcludesbyexploringhowfutureexternalactionaroundtheEuropeanGreenDealanditsambitio
17、nsforsystemictransformationcouldbenefitfromsteppingupcooperationwithcitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhoodaroundthewater-energy-foodnexus.IntroductionOverthepasttwodecades,theEuropeanCommissionhasprogressivelysteppedupitssupportforurbanclimateactionandresilience,signallingitsrecognitionoftheimportantrolel
18、ocalgovernmentsplayinthetransitiontoaclimate-neutralEurope(Kern,2019;Abdullah,2021).Inlinewiththeseefforts,thestrategistsbehindtheEuropeanGreenDeal(EGD)stressthatcitiesuwillhaveahugeroletoplayinthefundamentaltransformationthattheGreenDealistodriveinoursocieties(EuropeanCommissionVicePresidentFransTi
19、mmermansquotedinEuropeanCommitteeoftheRegions,2019).ThenewClimate-NeutralandSmartCitiesmissionrunbytheHorizonEuroperesearchandinnovationprogramme,whichsupportsandshowcasescitiesasinnovationhubsthatcanaccelerateandleadontheEGD,isoneexampleofpioneeringinitiativesunderway(EuropeanCommission,n.d.a).Asur
20、banexperimentationwithclimatemitigationhasshown,citiesaretheoptimalscalefortheelaborationandimplementationofpolicyinnovation(Bulkeley&CastanBroto,2012).Theyarelargeenoughtotestandpilotnewideasbeforemodellingsolutions,andsmallenoughtodiscardthemiftheydonotworkwellwithoutexcessivecosts.Climateresilien
21、ceatsubnationallevelhasalsobecomeafocusareaoftheEU,sworkwithitsneighbourstothesouth.TheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP)isaforeignrelationsinstrumentforcooperationwithneighbouringcountriesandtheSouthernNeighbourhoodcoverstenpartnercountries:Algeria,Egypt,Israel,Jordan,Lebanon,Libya,Morocco,Palestine,
22、SyriaandTunisia.Inresponsetotheregion,srapidurbanizationandthehighclimatevulnerabilityofcities,anincreasingnumberofprogrammesfinancedunderENP-Southaddressurbanclimateresilience.Inaddition,theUnionfortheMediterranean(UfM)-theintergovernmentalorganizationofthe27EUmemberstatesand15partnercountriesfromt
23、heMediterraneanbasin-adopteditsfirstUrbanAgendain2017(UfM,2017),signallingthepoliticalwillingnesstoestablishamorecoordinatedapproachtourbanpolicy,includingonclimateresilience.Despitebeinghometosomeoftheoldestcontinuouslyinhabitedcitiesoftheworld,theMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)region,whichextendsfr
24、omtheMaghrebinnorthwestAfricatotheLevant,Iraq,andtheArabianPeninsula,isalatecomertourbanizationcomparedtoEuropeandNorthAmerica.WhilewesternEuropeurbanizedinthe19thcentury,reaching40%urbanpopulationatthebeginningofthe20thcentury,urbandwellersintheMENAregionrepresentedonly16%ofthetotalpopulationatthat
25、time.Duringthe20thcentury,theglobalizationofhinterlandsallowedcitiesoftheMENAregiontoovercometheirlimitednaturalresources,whichfuelledrapidgrowthinurbanization.Theregion,surbanpopulationgrewfrom35%ofthetotalinthe1960sto65%today,andremainshigherthantheglobalaverage(WorldBank,2021;Elgendy&Abaza,2020).
26、Estimatesprojectthatthenumberofurbandwellersintheregionwillreach381millionin2030and527millionin2050,thenumberofcitieswithonetofivemillionresidentswillincreasesignificantly,andthemajorityofurbanagglomerationswillgrowatanannualrateofonetothreepercent(UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,2
27、018b).Atthesametime,climatehazardsandchangeareputtingadditionalstressonurbaninfrastructure.TheArabregionwillbecomehotteranddrier,withexpectedincreasesinaverageannualtemperaturesof1.2oC-2.6oCbythemiddleofthe21stcenturyandupto1.5oC-4.8oCbytheendofthecentury,dependingontheclimatechangescenario.Temperat
28、ureincreasesareexpectedtobemorepronouncedinthesummer,andinnon-coastalcities.Averagemonthlyrainfallwillreduce,particularlyincoastalcities,whichwillleadtoincreasedaridity(UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2017).Theprojectedtemperatureincreasesdonotcapturethetemperatureextremes,whi
29、chareexacerbatedbyurbanbuild-upandalreadyexceedwhaturbaninfrastructurecanwithstandinmanyplaces.Citiesacrosstheregion,includingDamascusandBaghdad,witnessedrecordtemperaturesinthesummerof2020,increasinghealthriskstoresidents(Alahmadetal.,2020;Al-Bouwarthanetal.,2019).Theseclimateimpactsandstressorsare
30、furtheraggravatedbygenerallyweakregulation(weaklawsorweakenforcementorboth)thathasallowedunsustainableurbandevelopmenttrendsthatadverselyaffecturbanclimateresilience.Energyandwaterinefficiency,inadequatedrainage,buildingonnaturalfloodplainsandalackofalternativemobilitymodesarecommonfeatures.Inpart,t
31、helackofurbanplanningisduetohighlycentralizedadministrativesystemsandincompletedecentralizationreforms,whichhamperlocalcapacitybuildingandlocaldecisionmaking.Administrations,bothcentralandlocal,areoftenunabletokeepupwithurbanexpansionandrisingdemandforessentialservices,especiallywater,energyandwaste
32、management.Theresulthasbeenanexplosionofinformalactivitiesandagrowinggapinstandardsbetweenprivateandpubliclymanagedspaces(Elgendy&Abaza,2020;Farhan&Al-Shawamreh,2019;Piffero,2009).Theconvergenceofharshclimaticconditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocio-economicburdenswillexace
33、rbateexistinginequalitiesandcauseincreasingpoverty.Thiscouldleadtosocialandpoliticalinstability,andpossiblytoconflictsthatwouldinturninducefurtherpovertyandmigration(Abouelnaga,2019).Europewillnotbeinsulatedfromthesepotentialchainsofevents,whichwilllikelycascadeintotheEU,alteringsecurity,supplychain
34、andtradeanddiplomaticrelationswiththecountriesoftheSouthernNeighbourhood.Theconvergenceofharshclimaticconditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocioeconomicburdenswillexacerbateexistinginequalitiesandcauseincreasingpovertyTheEU,sevolvingapproachtoworkingwithlocalauthoritiesonclim
35、ategovernanceintheSouthernNeighbourhoodhasbeenafirststeptowardsaddressingtheregion,sintertwinedurbanandclimatecrises.ProgrammeslaunchedundertheENP(seeBox1,page25)havemainlyassistedmunicipalitiesandgovernorateswiththepreparationofsustainableenergyandclimateactionplans,andrecentyearshavealsoseennascen
36、texperienceinfinancingandimplementationofthoseplans(Almasri&Sarkar,2021).Notably,themovetowardsworkingonurbanissuesunderENP-Southhasbeenpartofabroadershifttowardscity-levelclimateactiondrivenbyglobalinitiativesliketheC40CitiesClimateLeadershipGroup,ResilientCitiesNetworkandEBRDsGreenCitiesActionPlan
37、,whichincludecitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhoodamongtheirmembers.ButurbanclimatecooperationbetweenEuropeandtheSouthernNeighbourhoodisstillintheearlystagesandthereisfurtherneedtoreflectonlessonslearnedandonhowurbanspaces,climatesandgovernanceareevolving.TheEuropeanCommissionsnewagendafortheSouthernNeig
38、hbourhood(EuropeanCommission,2021b)highlightsthegreentransitionandclimateactionaspriorityareasandintegraltotheregion,sresilientpost-pandemicrecovery.Yet,whileitrecognizesthelocalandurbandimensionsoftheseprocesses,thechallengesandopportunitiestheyposerequiremoreelaboration.Climatecooperationatthesubn
39、ationallevelcreatesnewchallengesfortheEU.Forexample,thereisgeneralconsensusthatanexusapproachtomanagingresourcesimprovesclimateresilience(Medinilla,2021;Mohtar,2017;UnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia,2016).TheEUsdevelopmentprojectsandplansintheSouthernNeighbourhoodthatfocusonnati
40、onal-levelinfrastructureandagricultureoftenadoptasingle-systemapproach.EUcity-levelprogrammeshavesofarlargelyfocusedonfindingsectoralsolutionsforenergy(seeBox1,page25).Butasdemonstratedbytheregionalcasestudiesinthispaper,thetransformationofasingleurbansectorisnotenoughtostrengthencity-levelclimatere
41、silience.Instead,exploringsynergiesbetweenurbansectors-inparticularwater,energyandfood-canprovidemoreresilientandsustainablesolutions(GIZ&ICLEI,2014).Thistypeofapproachhasnotbeenappliedmuchinurbancooperationprogrammes.WiththeEUcurrentlychartingtheexternaldimensionoftheEGD(CounciloftheEuropeanUnion,2
42、021)1thisisanopportunemomenttoassesshowclimateandenergydiplomacycouldbenefitfromsteppingupcooperationwithcitiesaroundwater-energy-foodnexusapproaches.TheEGD,sambitionforsystemictransformationcallsforasystemicapproachtourbanclimateresilienceandsustainabilitythatidentifiestrade-offsandstrengthenssyner
43、giesbetweensectors.ThisstudyexaminesthespecificclimatevulnerabilitiesinurbanareasintheSouthernNeighbourhoodandwiderMENAregion,and,basedoncasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediaryurbanareas,1Itadvocatesforaholisticvisionandsystemicapproachinaddressingurbanclimateresilienceincities.Consideringtheestablis
44、hedeffectivenessofapplyingawater-energy-foodnexusapproachtoimprovingclimateresilience,thepaperstressestheneedforlocalgovernmentstoexplorenexusopportunitiesbetweenthewater,energyandfoodsectorsinasystematicwayinordertoachieveresilientandsustainableurbanism,whilehighlightingotherenablingfactorssuchasde
45、centralization.Italsoidentifiesthewater-energy-foodnexusasaneffectiveentrypointforadvancingEGDgoalsintheSouthernNeighbourhood.Thestructureofthepaperisasfollows: Part1providesanoverviewoftheregionsexposuretoimpactsofclimatechangethatincreasevulnerabilityandreduceresilienceofcitiesandurbanareas.Itanal
46、ysesfactorslimitingcities,capacitytoadaptandbarrierstointegratingurbansustainabilityandresilience,andtheregionswater-energy-foodnexus.1Intermediarycitiesarecitieswithapopulationbetween50,000andonemillionpeoplethatgenerallyplayaprimaryroleinconnectingruralandurbanareastobasicfacilitiesandservices. Pa
47、rt2presentscasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediarycitiesinMorocco(Chefchaouen),Lebanon(Hammana)andTunisia(Gabes)toexaminecurrentregionalapproachestourbanresilienceandsustainabilitywhichdonotalwaysexplorelinkageswithothersectors. Part3exploreshowexternalactionaroundtheEGDprovidesanopportunitytomovebey
48、ondsectoralurbancooperationandtowardsamoresystemicapproachthatsupportscitiesinformulatingandimplementingwater-energy-foodnexusapproaches. ThepaperconcludeswithRecommendationsonhowtheEUcanbuildonthecooperationandpartnershipsithasalreadyestablishedwithsubnationalactorstobetterunlockthepotentialforbuil
49、dingclimateresilienceincitiesoftheSouthernPartnership.1. UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilienceUrbanclimateimpactsCitiesoftheSouthernNeighbourhoodandwiderMENAregion?faceanumberofclimaterisks.Averageannualtemperaturesacrosstheregionarepredictedtoriseby1.5oC-2.3oCor3.2oC-4.8oCbytheendofthe21stcentury,dependingontheclimatechangescenarioused.Maximumtemperaturesareexpectedtorisefrom43to50,especiallyininland
