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1、0DDECARBONlZATlOh_DAYXWAVC POLICYLESSONS ONDEEPDECARBONIZATION inlargeemergingeconomies Brazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfrica AninternationalreportcoordinatedbytheDeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative NOVEMBER2021 IDDRI Copyright2021IDDRI TheInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentandInternationalRela
2、tions(IDDRI)encouragesthereproductionandpubliccommunicationofitscopyrightmaterials,withpropercredit(bibliographicalreferenceand/orcorrespondingURL),forpersonal,corporateorpublicpolicyresearch,oreducationalpurposes.However,IDDRscopyrightedmaterialsarenotformmercialuseordissemination(printorelectronic
3、).Unlessexpresslystatedotherwise,thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedinthisdocumentarethoseofthevariousauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseofIDDRsboard.Citation DDP(2021).Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies.DeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative-IDDRI.Par
4、is.Thereportisavailableonline:https:ddpinitiative.org/CategOrV/publication/Contact HenriWaisman,heni.waismaniddri.ora Financialsupportfrom ThereportPOLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATIONinlargeemergingeconomiesisfinanciallysupportedbytheInternationalClimateInitiative(IKI)oftheGermanFederalMinistryforthe
5、Environment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety(BMU)aspartoftheClimateActionAfterParisproject(nr.18_l_326).Production:IDDRI.Editing:MartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,LolaVallejo,HenriWaisman.1.ayout:IvanPharabod.POLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATION inlargeemergingeconomies Introduction 3 Brazil:5 Intr
6、oduction 5 Part 1:Scenarioresults 7 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 18 Annex 23 India:25 Introduction 25 Part 1:Scenarioresults 27 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 32 Indonesia:39 Part 1:Scenarioresults 40 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 51 SouthAfrica:55 Introduction 55 Part 1:Scenarioresults 56 Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons 62T
7、hisreporthasbeenauthoredbyaconsortiumofindependentexpertsactingintheirpersonalcapacitiesandwhohavenotbeennominatedbytheirrespectivegovernments.Theviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotreflecttheviewsofanygovernmentororganization.Introduction MartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,HiltonTrollip1HenriWaisman.The
8、worldhasagreedtopreventtheirreversibledamagestohumanandnaturalecosystemscausedbyanthropogenicglobalwarmingbylimitingtheriseofglobaltemperaturetowellbelow2andtopursueeffortstolimititto1.5.Toimplementthis,theParisAgreementgroundsthisgoalintermsofglobalemissiontrajectoriesandtheneedtoembedthemintheinth
9、econtextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty.Subsequentlyscience(IPCCSR1.5)furtherspecifiesthatglobalneutralityconcerningcarbondioxidespecificallyshouldhappenbetween2050(for1,5)and2075(for2).Italsopointsoutthenecessityofmindingnon-CO2forcerstomaintaintheglobalobjective.Toreachthissca
10、leofemissionreductions,thescientificassessmentconcludesthatrapidandfar-reachingtransformations,farbeyondwhathasbeenobservedinthepast,arerequiredinallcomponentsoftheeconomicsystem,i.e.inenergy,urbanandinfrastructure,industryandlandandecosystems.Suchdrastictransitionsinturnrequireprofoundchangesintech
11、nologiesbutalsoinsocial,economic,institutionalandpolicycondi-tions.Scienceshowsthatthechangesrequiredbyclimateobjectivescanbecompatiblewithbroadersustainabledevelopmentobjectivesifactionisimple-mentedwithoutdelay,isguidedbystrategicvisionsoftransformationsinformingthedesignofwell-designedpolicypacka
12、gesandthecooperationamongactorsandisenabledbyeffectiveinternationalcooperation.Withtheseframeworknditionsathand,countriesaresettoexplorenationalpathwaystoexplainhowtherapidandfar-reachingtransitionsrequiredgloballycanhappenineachcountryntext.Nationaldeepdecarbonisationoflargeemergingeconomieshasbeen
13、largelyexploredfromatech-no-economicperspective,resultinginviablesetsoflong-termpathwaysunderanumberofconditions.Existinganalysisshowsthatthenationaltransitioncanmostlybeeninitiatedusingexistingtechnologiesandmarketinstrumentsatlowandoftennetnegativefinancialstandthat,usually,thesetransformationscan
14、haveassociatedlargeoverallneteconomicbene-fitswhenexternaleconomicandenvironmentalcostsandbenefitsarefactoredin.However,similartomostpartsoftheworld,mostmajornecessarydecarboni-sationtransformationsareeithernothappeningorhappeningataslowerpacethannecessary.Thisgapbetweenexistingevidenceandconcreteac
15、tionhigh-lightsthatthecarbonneutraltransitionisnotonlyamatteroftechno-economicfeasibilitybutessentiallyaquestionofpoliticaleconomy.Actualimplemen-tationrequiresclarityaboutthechoicestobemadeinthetransition,abouttheconcretepoliciesandactionsthatcanbeenvisaged,aboutthosewhocanbewinnersandthosewhomaylo
16、seandthemeasuresadoptedtomanagethesocio-economiccostsofthetransition.Scientificassessmentsshouldthereforebeseenlessasaninstrumenttoillustratetransitionpathwaysinanormativemannerthanasawaytodeterminetheinclusivewhole-of-societyconversa-tionthatwouldberequiredtomakethetransitioneffectiveandacceptable.
17、TheDDPmmunitybehindthisreporthascommit-tedtothisvisionoftheroleofscenarioanalysisinthepublicdebate.Thebodyofknowledgeemergingfromthiscommunityaimsatensuringthatthefeaturesofthetechno-enomicdeepdecarbonisationtransfor-mationsarecontextualizedinthediversityofcountrycircumstancesanddescribedwithsuffici
18、entdetailsandgranularitytoinformdecisionsrequiredtodrivethesetransformations.Keychallengestodate,whicharecriticaltoincreaseambitionandaccelerateaction,include:connectingthescenariosanalysisandthediversityofpoliciesandactionstoimplementationintherealworld;revealingthecriticalconditionsthatareoutsidet
19、hecontrolofnationalauthorities,whereinternationalcooperationmustplayarole,andensuringownershipoftheinsightsemergingfromthescenariosbyadiversityofactorstoempowertheminthepublicdebates.TheDDPapproachunderlyingthisreportsresearchisestablishedwiththesekeychallengesinmind.Itisfundamentallyacountry-driven
20、exploration,backcastingfromthemid-centuryemissionandsocio-eco-nomicobjectivestoinformtheshort-termdecisionswithinandacrosssystems.Sectoraldeepdivesallowforanin-depthinvestigationofalllevers,opportunitiesandchallengessuitedtoinformdomesticstake-holderdebateinhighlycomplicatedsectors,suchastransport,i
21、ndustry,oragriculture/land-use,whicharetraditionallyrepresentedpoorlyinexistinglong-termroadmaps.Thestakeholderengagementapproachtothedevelopmentofthescenariosandemanatingpolicyinsightsisanessentialmeansforthesescien-tificassessmentstoserveanactionagenda.Thisreportpresentsasynthesisoftheresultsofthe
22、assessmentsconductedinBrazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfrica.Foreachofthecountrieschapters,PartIdescribesthemainfeaturesoftheeconomy-wideDeepDecarbonizationScenario(三)(DDS)1includingadescriptionofkeynational-scalesocio-economicaspectsandanexplicitcharacterisationoftheemis-sionobjectiveandtrajectory.To
23、realisethenecessarychangestogetontracktothispath,adescriptionoftheCurrentPolicyScenario(CPS)isalsopresented,includingadescriptionofthemainpoliciesandactionsconsidered.Scenarioresultsincludeanin-depthdescriptionatsectorlevelforthedeepdivesselectedbyeachuntry.PartIlofthecountrychaptersfocusesonkeypoli
24、cylessons,whichcanserveasdirectinputsintopolicyconversationsatthecountrylevel.Itincludesadescriptionofthemainsynergiesandtrade-offswithcountrynon-climateobjectives,prior-ityshort-termpoliciesandactions,withafocusonwhereshiftsfromcurrentpathsarecriticallyrequired,investmentspatternsandkeyinternationa
25、lenablersandacceleratorsofdomestictransitions.TheBrazilianNDChasaneconomy-widegoalof37%GHGemissionreduction,by2025and43%reductionby2030,comparedwith2005asthebaseyear.Brazilalsomadevoluntarycommitmentsofemissionreductionsin2009duringCOP15(Copenhagen)linkedtoitsNAMAs1correspondingtokeepemissionsbelowa
26、capofroughly2GtC2eqin2020.Morerecently,theBrazilianPresidentannouncedattheClimateLeaderSummitorganizedbyUSPresidenton22April2021thecountryscommitmenttoreachclimateneutralityby2050.ThisstudysimulatestwoGHGemissionsscenariosinBraziluntil2050.Itprovidesaframeworkforananalysisofeconomy-wideandsectoralin
27、dicatorsofadecarbonizationpathwayalignedwiththegeneralobjectiveoftheParisAgreement(net-zeroGHGemissionsin2050).TheCurrentPoliciesScenario(CPS)followsthetrendofongo-ingmitigationactions.Itsemissionsareof1.65GtC2eqin2030,withnoincreaseinambitionbetween2030and2050.TheCPSnearlymeetsthecountrystargetfor2
28、030underthenewfirstNDCbutisabovethefigure(1.4GtC2eq)ofarevisedtargetwhenthe2005baseyearemis-sionsareupdatedaccordingtothenew4thnationalemissionsinventory.TheDeepDecarbonizationScenario(DDS)reaches1.0GtC2qin2030,goingbeyondtheNDCtargetandfollowingaGHGemissionstrajectorycompatiblewiththeglobalobjectiv
29、eof1.50C,achievingnet-zeroemissionsin2050.ThesectoralmitigationmeasuresconsideredinCPSarebasedonnationalplansandpolicies.DDSincorporatesmoreambitiousactionsandotheravailabletechnologies.DDSsmainfeaturesarearadicalreductionindeforestationratesandanincreaseofcarbonsinks.Carbonpricingfrom2021isassumedf
30、orasignificantshareoftheemissions(EnergyandIPPU),withsectorsintroducingmitigationactionswithcostsEmilio L.La Rovere Carolina B.S.Dubeux William WiHS Michele K.C.Walter Giovanna Naspolini Otto Hebeda Daniel N.S.Gongalvez George V.Goes Marcio DAgosto Erika C.Nogueira Sergio H.F.da Cunha Claudio Gestei
31、ra Gaelle Le Treut Giovanna Cavalcanti Mark Bermanzon Center for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment(CENTRO CLIMA)at COPPE/UFRJ-Institute for Research and Graduate Studies of Engineering,Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.underthecarbonpriceineachperiod,startingwiththemostcost
32、-effective.Carbonpricesareintroducedthroughacap-andtradesysteminIndustry,andacarbontaxonGHGemissionsfromthecombustionoffossilfuelsinothersectors.Theywillgrowlinearly,reaching25USDtC02qin2030 and65USDtC02eqin2050.Carbonpricingwillbeneutralfromafiscalperspective,with100%ofitsrevenuesrecycledbackintoth
33、eeconomythroughlabourchargesreductionaimingtofosteremployment,andtocompensatelow-incomehouseholdsfortheaveragepricelevelincrease.Populationsizeincreasesfrom210millioninhab-itantsin2019toabout233millioninhabitantsin2050.Inthisperiod,theurbanpopulationsharegrowsfrom86%to89%,Followingthesharpdown-turni
34、ntheeconomyfrom2015to2020duetoapolitical-economiccrisisandtheCOVID-19pandemic,Brazilianeconomyeconomicrecoveryisassumedtostarton2021:annualaverageGDPgrowthrateswouldbeof3,5%in2021;2.5%from2021to2030;2,25%from2031to2040;and2%from2041to2050(withlineargrowthassumedwithineachdecade).Afterthedrawbackinth
35、e2015-2020period,Giniindexstartstodecreaseagain,butslowerthanthe2000-2015record.Householdsizeisprojectedtodecreaseslowlywhilehouseholddisposableincomeasa%ofGDPisprojectedtoincrease.TradewillbecomemoreimportanttoBrazilduringthescenariotimeframe,andimporttaxesandprotectionismwillbereduced,followingthe
36、globaltrend.Weuseanintegratedmodellingapproach,whereasetofsixsectoralmodelsislinkedtoaCGEmodel(IMACLIM-BR).Thesectoralmodelsconsistoffourenergydemandmodels(transport,industry,buildings,andagricultureenergydemand),anagri-culture,forestryandotherlanduse(AFOLU)modelandanenergysupplymodel(MATRIZ).GHGemi
37、ssionestimatesfromWastecompletethepicture.PART1:SCENARIORESULTS EMISSIONPROFILES GHGemissionsreach17MtCO2eqinDDSand1889inCPSby2050.Comparing2050inbothscenarioswith2020values,DDSis99%lower,while 7Table sector.MostGHGemissionreductionscomefromlandusechangeandforestry.ComparedtoCPS,in2050DDSemissionsfr
38、omdeforestationare93%lower,areductionof953MtCO2eq.Onthetopofthat,carbonremovalsincrease76%lequivalentto451MtCO2eq,thankstoincreasedforestedandprotectedareas(indigenouslandsandconservationunits).Transportisthesecondmostrelevantsector,withanemissionreductionof126MtCO2eq(53%),followedbythewastesectorwi
39、thareductionof120MtCO2eq(65%),andlivestockactivitieswith116MtCO2eq(22%).Finally,inindustrythereductionisof84MtCO2eq(31%),andinenergysupplyaddedtootherenergyconsumptionsectorsof27MtC2q(23%).Theonlyactivitywithasmallincreaseinemissionsiscropping,with4MtC2q(4%)moreemissionsinDDSduetohigherbiofuelsprodu
40、ction.InDDS,onlytwosectorshavehigherGHGemis-sionsin2050thaninthebaseyear2019:croppingactivitiesincreaseemissionsby29%;andindustryby14%.Inthesecases,undertheassumptionofnomajorbreakthroughsordisruptivetechnologies,theimprovementoftechnologiescurrentlyinusewasnotsufficienttocompensateforthehigherprodu
41、ctionlevels.MITIGATIONACTIONS ANDCOSTS InDDS,besidesthehugeefforttocurbdowndeforestationandincreaseremovals,thecarbonpricingpolicysuppliesthecomplementarymiti-gationactionsinothersectorsrequiredtoreachnet-zeroemissionsin2050.Table2presentsthecumulativeavoidedGHGemissionsperdecade(MtCO2eq).Mtc02eq 20
42、05 2010 2019 2020 2030 2005-2030 2040 2050 CPS-DDS(2050)Land Use Change CPS 2,171 668 1,024-53%1,024 1,024-93%(LUC)-gross emissions DDS 614-72%201 71 Removals CPS.249-313.574.591-556 123%-576-593 76%(LUC,Forest,Protected Areas and Other)DDS -695 179%-794-1042 Agriculture CPS 146 161 92 92 97-34%101
43、115 4%(crops+energy)DDS 99-32%106 119 Livestock CPS 329 329 433 432 466 42%485 529-22%DDS 453 38%444 413 Transport CPS 139 173 196 175-209 50%220 240-53%DDS 167 20%139 114 Industry CPS 139 162 162 166 194 40%232 268-31%(energy+IPPU)DDS 172 23%180 184 Energy(supply+demand from households CPS 100 111
44、121 95 127 27%115 120-23%and services)DDS 120 21%100 93 Waste CPS 61 69 100 102-105 71%145 186 65%DDS 76 25%78 65 Total CPS 2.837 1,361 1 47Q 1 a 1,665-41%1,745 1,889-99%DDS 1,005-65%454 17 Table 1-Total GHG Emissions per Sector,2005-2050,under CPS and DDS(Mt C2q)Commandandntrolpoliciescombinedwithc
45、onstrainingtheaccessoffarmersandrancherstopubliccredits(subjecttoconformitywithenvironmentallawsandregulations)achieve59%oftotalcumulativeGHGemissionreduc-tionsupto2050,throughthesharpreductionofannualdeforestationrate.The2004-2012recordhasalreadyshownthepotentialofthesemeasuresthatcanbesuccessfully
46、adoptedagain.Command-and-controlmeasuresalsoallowtoavoiddefor-estationthroughtheincreaseofthenumberandthesurfaceofconservationareas(e.g.,permanentpreservationareas,indigenouslanddemarcation,andotherlegalreserves).Thecarbonpricingpolicycansupply30%oftotalcumulativeavoidedemissionsupto2050indifferents
47、ectors:AFOLU(18%),Transport(6.5%),Industry(4%),andEnergysupply(1%).Nativevegetationrestorationinpublicandprivateareashaveasignificantabatementpotentialandlowercoststhantheothersectors.Itallowstoremove2,647MtC2qupto2050,whennativevegetationrestorationwillreach30.18millionha.Privateareaspresentmoreatt
48、ractivecostsincomparisonwithpublicareas(7versus17USD/tC2qin2021,8versus28in2031,and9versus31in2041).ConsideringtheenforcementofForestCodecompliance,privateareasprovidehighercumulativeavoidedemissionsin2021-2030(121versus38Mt2eq)andin2031-2040(322versus302MtC2q)thanpublicareas.However,inthelastdecade
49、,thebulkofremovalswillcomefrompublicareasthankstoabettercost-effectiveness,andthusitscontributiontocumulativeavoidedGHGemissionsthroughoutthewhole2020-2050periodwillbeof1,6311against1,015MtC2qfromprivateareas.Theabatementcostassessmentindicatesthepathwayofcarbonprices.Costsforagivenmitiga-tionoption
50、mayvarythroughoutthethreedecadesCumulative avoided emissions per decade(Mt CO2eq)Decades 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050 Total Mitigation Actions 3,629 10,069 16,103 Carbon Pricing Policy 1,013 2,618 5.254 AFOLU 619 1,483 3,281 Native forest restoration in public areas(through government concession)38
