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1、8theditionofe-ConomySEAbyGoogle,Temasek3Bain:SoutheastAsia,sdigitaleconomyresearchprogramme2021jSEA,sDigitalDecade2022)20232030Roaring t20s:TheSEADigital DecadeTowards a sustainable digital economyThroughthewaves,towardsaseaofopportunityReachingnewheights:Navigatingthepathtoprofitablegrowthe-ConomyS
2、EAresearchmethodologyTemasek insightsBain analysisGoogle TrendsPrimary research1Expert interviews2 & industry sourcesWithcontributionsfrom500例只等Ggvcapital名.缥，KKRAlSLrFToucto11e1vertex*野Notes:AlldollaramountsareinUSD.Unlessotherwisestated,allmentionsofSoutheastAsiaor*SEA-inthisreportrefertothesesixma
3、rkets:Indonesia.Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,andVietnam.(1)GooglecommissionedKantartorunthee-ConomySEAconsumersurvey.Theresearchwasconductedinmetroandnon-metrocitiesacrossIndonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,andVietnam.Datacollectionranfrom10/08/2023to01/09/2023viaa25-miuteon
4、linesurvey.TheSUrVeywasconductedamongatotalof11=7.881respondentsaged18-64whohadmadeatransactioninatleastoneoftheverticalscoveredwithinaspecifiedperiodoftime.Eachrespondentwasallocatedtoamaximumoftwoverticals,outofeightverticalscovered,basedonleastfillquota.(2)BainandTemasekconductedinterviewsandaqua
5、ntitativesurveywithSEA-focusedventurecapitalinvestorsfrom06/2023to08/2023.Goe-ConomySEAcovers6countriesinSoutheastAsia.and5leadingsectorsinthedigitaleconomyOnline travelb Flights Hotelsto Vacation rentalsE-commerce.MarketplacesDirect-to-consumer*GroceriesTransport&foodTransportFooddeliveryOnlinemedi
6、abAdvertising，GamingbVideo-on-demandMusic-on-demandFinancialservicesPaymentsLendingInsuranceInvestmentsNotes:E-commercedoesnotincludeinformalcommerceduetothelackofreliabledata.Financialservicesareexcludedfrommarketsizingestimatesduetodifferencesinunitsofmeasurementcomparedtootherleadingsectors.Conte
7、ntInvestors reset expectationsGrowingagainstglobalheadwindsEngaginghighvalueusersMonetisation on the riseFinancialservicesataninflectionpointBridgingthedigitaleconomicdivideThepathforward:profitablegrowthExecutivesummarySEAhasweatheredglobalmacroeconomicheadwindswithmoreresiliencecomparedtootherregi
8、onsaroundtheworld.Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthremainsabove4%,whileinflationhascomedownto3%.ConsumerconfidenceisstartingtoreboundinH22023afterfallingtolowerlevelsinH12023.PrivatefundinginSEAhasdeclinedtoitslowestlevelinsixyears,whichisinlinewithglobalshiftstowardshighercostsofcapitalandissuesacros
9、sthefundinglifecycle.ExitsremaintopofmindasSEAfundshavereturnedlesscapitaltoinvestorsthanfundsfocusedonotherregions.Toleavethefundingwinterbehind,SEAwillneedtoproveitsdigitalcompanieshaveaclearpathwaytoprofitability,andinvestorshavedependableexitpathways.Digitalbusinesseshaveshiftedtheirfocustomonet
10、isationinabidtoachieveprofitabilitytargets.In2023,theSEAdigitaleconomyissettodeliver$100Binrevenue,growingat27%CAGRsince2021-1.7Xtherateofgrossmerchandisevalue(GMV)growth.E-commerce,travel,transport,andmediacontributed$70Binrevenue.Remarkably,thefocusonmonetisationhasnotcomeattheexpenseofconsumereng
11、agementandGMVgrowth.GMVisstillexpectedtogrowat11%to$218Bin2023.Travelandtransportareontracktoexceedpre-pandemicheightsin2024,whilee-commerceisshowingresilience.Consumersareadoptingdigitalfinancialservices(DFS)atarapidpace.Cashisnolongerking,asdigitalpaymentsnowmakeupmorethan50%oftheregionstransactio
12、ns.Highinterestratesaretailwindstodepositsandwealthmanagementbutposechallengestolending.Non-performingloansremainundercontrol.Sustainablebusinessmodelsareemergingamongpure-playfintechs,whiletraditionalfinancialcompaniesareacceleratingtheprocessofdigitalisationtoretainusers.Asbusinessespursueanaelera
13、tedpathtoprofitability,engaginghighvalueusershasbecomecriticaltoachievesustainableuniteconomics.Thetop30%ofSEAspendersaccountformorethan70%ofdigitaleconomyspend-andtheycanbefoundeverywhere.Thisisaccentuatedingaming,travel,andtransport.Inthelongerterm,companieswillneedtoembraceabroadersetofcustomerst
14、ocontinuegrowinginasustainablewayandunlocktheregionsfullmonetisationpotential.Digitalinclusionhasmadeinroadsintheregionoverthepastyears.Connectivityhasincreasedbyasmuchas3Xsince2015insomeruralareas.Yet1asplayersfocusonmonetisation,consumersoutsideofmetrocitiesarefacingawideningdigitaleconomicdivide.
15、Ecosysteminvestmentsarerequiredtobridgethegap,whichW川inturnsupportlong-termdigitaleconomicgrowth.ThereremainssignificantheadroominSEA:favourabledemographics,growingwealth,andanincreasinglyurbanisedpopulationsetthestageforfuturedigitaleconomicgrowth.Competitionisalsoexpectedtobecomemorerationalinthep
16、ursuitofsustainedprofitability.SEAsdigitaleconomycanreachitsfullpotentialgivenbroadeneddigitaleconomyparticipation,theemergenceofnascentsectors,physicalinfrastructureinvestments,andpolicyandregulationattheregionallevel.SEAhasweatheredglobalmacroeconomicheadwindswithmoreresiliencecomparedtootherregio
17、nsaroundtheworld.Q SEAGDP(YoY%)SEAhasstoodfirmagainstglobalmacroeconomicheadwindsGDPgrowthhasstayedrelativelystableNotes:DataisasofJuly2023.(1)SORAusedasaproxyforSingaporeinterestrates.Sources:UnrtedNationsPopulationDivision;S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence;relevantcentralbanksandmonetaryauthorities:Bain
18、analysisSEA,seconomyseesencouraging+36%increaseinregionalFDIinflow1+32%increaseinregionalexports1Notes:FDI=foreigndirectinvestment.(1)Comparedto2019.Sources:UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment;Euromonitor;InternationalAirDestinationInsightswithGoogle:Bainanalysisgupswings,especiallyintravel
19、80%recoveryinoutboundpassengervolume1+40%increaseintraveldemand1TransportAssociation：Real GDP growth rate (YoY %)20232024SEA,sGDPgrowthisforecasttokeepupwiththeworld,sfastest-growingeconomiesNote:DataisasofOctober2023,andincludesfull-yearestimatesfor2023andforecastsfor2024and2025.Sources:S&PGlobalMa
20、rketIntelligence;BainanalysisInflationremainsundercontrolcomparedtootherregionsNote:DataisasofOctober2023.andincludesfull-yearestimatesfor2023.Sources:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence:BainanalysisInflationrate(YoY%)202120222023GooflbTCMSEKbainaCOmfamy(5ConsumerconfidenceintheeconomyhasbeguntorecoverinQ32
21、023acrossmostoftheregionNote: Data is as of August 2023. Data based on a three-month rolling window.Sources: The Consumer Confidence Barometer combines search interest data based on multiple economic indication searches, both positive and negative, to estimate consumers confidence in a countrys econ
22、omic outlookConsumerConfidenceBarometerWeusedsearchinterestdatatomeasureconsumerconfidenceintheeconomy.Factorsinclude: Economicuncertaintysearches(e.g.inflation,recession) Commoditypricesearches(e.g.gasprices) Jobopportunitysearches(e.g.newjobopenings) Jobconcernsearches(.g.unemployment) Financeandi
23、nvestmentsearches(e.g.investingstrategies,mutualfundreturns)Ahigherscoreindicatesthatconsumersaremoreconfidentandhaveamorepositiveoutlookontheeconomy.Alowerscoreindicatesthatnsumersaremoreworriedandhaveamorenegativeoutlookontheeconomy.InvestorsresetexpectationsPrivatefundinginSEAhasdeclinedtoitslowe
24、stlevelinsixyears,whichisinlinewithglobalshiftstowardshighercostsofcapitalandissuesacrossthefundinglifecycle.ExitsremaintopofmindasSEAfundshavereturnedlesscapitalthanfundsfocusedonotherregions.Private funding reverts to 2017 levelsPrivate funding value ($B)-Average 10-year US Treasury RateH2,22 Hl 2
25、32016201720182019202020212022Note: Private funding value covers digital economy-related sectors, and excludes public financing deals e.g. PIPE. IPO, ICO. Srce: Bain analysisFundingtakesadipafterrecordhighsin2021Thepaceoffundinginrecentyearshasbeenextraordinary:in2016,weexpected$40B-$50Bofinvestments
26、thatwouldtakeGMVto$200Bin2025.By2022,theregionhadraiseddoublethatamount-$101B-asithitthe$200BGMVmilestonethreeyearsaheadofschedule.Shifttowardsself-sufficiencyComparedtopasthighs,thepaceoffundinghasslowedtoasix-yearlow-alsoduetohighercostsofcapital.Asinvestorsrecalibratetheirexpectations,digitalplay
27、ersarelookingtoextendtheirrunwaysbyspendingmoreefficiently,infavourofhealthierlong-termgrowth.DealenvironmentremainscompetitiveAshigh-qualityinvestmentsarerareinthisenvironment,thecompetitionforhigh-qualitydealsremainsrobust.GTEMA&EKBAINACOMHNYFundingdeclinescutacrossallstages;late-stagedealflowslow
28、edthemost(PriVatefundingVaIUe($B)DealcountCAGRU009eNote:Privatefundingvalueexcludespublicfinancingdealse.g.PIPE,IPO.ICO,andundisclosed,growth,secondaryorprivateequitydeals.Srce:BainanalysisDeclinesfrom2021-2022peakshavebeencommonacrossSEA(PriVatefundingValUe($B)cagrSource: Bain analysisAgrowingporti
29、onofdealactivityistunneledintonascentsectors,signallingthatinvestorsarediversifyingPrivatefundingvalue($B)TravelNascent sectoDigital mediaFood & transportE-commerceDFSDeal count185326972080H1 2023Note:(1)NascentsectorsincludecategoriesthatarestillrelativelynascentinSEAsuchasenterprise,healthtech,edt
30、ech,deeptech/Al,Web3crypto.property,automotive,etc.Source:BainanalysisInvestorsarefacingdifficultiesacrossallstagesoftheinvestmentlifecycle,withexitsanddistributionsbeingtopofmindInvestors have been grappling withdim prospects over the past 12 monthsof investors find that fundraising has become more
31、 challengingInvestorshavebeenincreasinglyurgedtorealiseexits,deliverreturns,anddistributecapitalof investors have seen a drop indiligence and top-of-funnel activity(350% of investors partially met or did not meet their divestment targetsof investors feel they are facing a more difficult exit environ
32、mentRealising returns and distributions are a key fundraising challengeFundsthatstartedinthemid-201Osarenowinthelatestagesofharvesting,puttingpressureondeliveringreturnsSrces:BainSEAVentureCapitalInvestorsSurvey,Q32023;BainanalysisFundsfacechallengesinreturningcapitaltoinvestorsMediandistributiontop
33、aid-incapital(Xofpaid-incapital)18-10 years5-7 yearsFund ageNote:(1)IncludesVCandgrowthfundsonly.Source:BainanalysisSEAhaslaggedotherregionsininvestorreturnsSEA-focusedfundshaveseensignificantlylowerdistributionstopaid-incapitalcomparedtofundsthatarefocusedonotherregions,suggestingdifficultyinrealis
34、ingreturnsforinvestors.DistributionslimitedbyscarceIPOsDistributionshavebeenconcentratedonafewbig-namelistings,primarilyonUSexchanges.ButthishasbeenaffectedbyinterestratehikesthathavesubsequentlyreducedIPOappetiteandthenumberoflistingsonregionalexchanges.Secondarieshaveseenvaluationimpact0.04XSEAWhi
35、levaluationdiscountsforsecondarysaleshavewidened,thevaluationsofqualitycompaniessecondarieshavebeencomparativelymoreresilient.GTEMASEKBAlNACOMHNYDrypowderisstillontherisedespiteinvestorsbecomingincreasinglycautiousamidstlimitedopportunities7.12017Notes:(1)FundsincludebothPEandVCfunds.Drypowderrefers
36、totheamountofcapitalthathasbeencommittedminustheamountthathasbeencalledforInvestment.Srce:PreqinDrypowderatyear-end($B)Toexitthisfundingwinter,digitalbusinessesinSEAneedtoprovethatqualitydealswithdependableexitpathwaysarereadilyavailableSrce:BainSEAVentureCapitalInvestorsSurvey,Q32023Realistic entry
37、 valuationsDigital companies should prove rational valuation multiples that are built on business and industry fundamentals, and that reflect the current macro environmentProven monetisation modelRealisable monetisation pathways and sustainable unit economics have become key requisites for SEA,s dig
38、ital businessesClear path to profitabilityEvery business needs to lay out a clear, realistic path to profitability and long-term financial sustainabilityDependableexitpathwaysAssurancethatthereareclearandfeasibleexitpathwaysfordigitalbusinesses,whichcouldbeintheformofamoreconducivecapitalmarketenvir
39、onmentandsupportiveregulations26MonetisationontheriseProfitabilityIGroWthDigitalbusinesseshaveshiftedtheirfocustomonetisationinabidtoachieveprofitabilitytargets,andarestartingtoseesuccess.Atthesametime,GMVcontinuesitsupwardtrajectory.Thedigitaleconomyhasflourishedontopofwidespreadadoption;monetisati
40、onisnowaccelerating,withvisibleprogress(SEAinternetUSerS(%，internetconsumersSEAdigitale8nomyGMV(Qeconomyrevenue(9SEAdigitaleconomyprofit($)2023Users:WidespreadinternetpenetrationacrossSEAAsinternetcoverageexpanded,thenumberofinternetusersgrewcommensurately.Engagingtheseusersandturningthemintoactivec
41、onsumersofdigitalproductsandservicesarekeytodigitaleconomicexpansion.Consumers:Highactivation,increasingparticipationConsumersacrossSEAhavereadilyadopteddigitalproductsandservicesasinternetcoverageexpanded,butthereisstillheadroomtogrowandexpanddepthofparticipationinthedigitaleconomy,beyondmetrocitie
42、sandhighvalueusers.GMV:ResilientdespiteheadwindsThepandemicspurredincredibleadoptionoverthepastfewyears,especiallyinkeysectorslikee-commerce.Despiteglobalheadwinds,growthremainsstrong,thoughattentionisshiftingtowardsmonetisationandprofitability.Revenue:MonetisationcontinuesatfullspeedDigitalbusiness
43、eshavesuccessfullymonetisedtheSEAdigitaleconomy,whetherthroughtheircorebusinessmodeloradjacencies.RevenuegrowthshouldcontinueoutpacingGMVgrowthasbusinessesexpandtheirtop-line.Profit:BusinessesinchclosertoprofitabilityThefocusonprofitabilityisintensifyingacrossalldigitalenomysectors.Businessesaretaki
44、ngstepstoimprovetheirefficiency,exploringnewproductivitydrivers(suchasAl)toachievesustainableandprofitablelong-termgrowth.Note:(1)Referstopercentageoftotaladultpopulation.Srces:Google,Temasek,andBain.e-ConomySEA2016-2022;BainanalysisAs the focus shifts from growth at all cost to profitable growth, n
45、ew priorities are at playBusinessobjectivesSustainablebalanceofuseracquisitionwithmonetisinginteractionsCoremetricsRevenueandEBITDAinadditiontoacquisition-focusedmetrics(e.g.monthlyactiveusers)Competitive focusMore rational competition, instead of a *win users at any cost mindsetCostoptimisationImpr
46、oveduniteconomicsthroughoptimisedspending,insteadofpurerevenuegrowthNote:EBITDA=earningsbeforeinterest,taxes,depreciation,andamortisation.Theregionhasreachedakeymilestone:$100Binrevenueacrossalldigitaleconomysectors-or8Xoverthepast8yearsSEAdigitaleconomytotalrevenue($B)8X,1002016202120222023Digitalfinancialservices1CoredigitaleconomysectorsNote:(1)InClUdeSrevenuefrompayments(averagemerchantdisuntrates),lending(grossinterestrates),
