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1、GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY PROGRAMOCTOBER2021II ETUDESDELIFRIHiqh-PerformanceComputinqJIvandQuantumComputinginEurope,sQuestforTechnologicalPowerAlicePANNIERTheFrenchInstituteofInternationalRelations(Ifri)isaresearchcenterandaforumfordebateonmajorinternationalpoliticalandeconomicissues.HeadedbyThierry
2、deMontbrialsinceitsfoundingin1979,Ifriisanon-governmental,non-profitorganization.Asanindependentthinktank,IfrisetsitsOwnresearchagenda,publishingitsfindingsregularlyforaglobalaudience.Takinganinterdisciplinaryapproach,Ifribringstogetherpoliticalandeconomicdecision-makers,researchersandinternationall
3、yrenownedexpertstoanimateitsdebateandresearchactivities.Theopinionsexpressedinthistextaretheresponsibilityoftheauthoralone.ISBN：979-10-373-0419-3Allrightsreserved,Ifri,2021Cover:Left:IBMQSystemComputer(Boykov/S);Right:GPUCard(Sdecoret/S).Howtoquotethispublication:AlicePannier,wStrategicCalculation:H
4、igh-PerformanceComputingandQuantumComputinginEuropesQuestforTechnologicalPower,EtudesdeVIfri1Ifri,October2021.Ifri27ruedelaProcession75740ParisCedex15-FRANCETel.:+33(0)140616000-Fax:+33(0)140616060Email:accueilifri.orgWebsite:Ifri.orgAuthorAlicePannierheadsIfri,sGeopoliticsofTechnologyprogram,launch
5、edinOctober2020,afterhavingbeenassociateresearchersince2019.Herrecentpublicationsinclude:TheChangingLandscapeofEuropeanCloudComputing:Gaia-X,theFrenchNationalStrategy,andEUPlansj,(BriefingsdeIfri,July22,2021)andt4EuropeintheGeopoliticsofTechnology:ConnectingtheInternalandExternalDimensionsv(Briefing
6、sdel,Ifri,April9,2021).PriortojoiningIfri,shewasAssistantProfessorinInternationalRelationsandEuropeanStudiesatthePaulH.NitzeSchoolofAdvancedInternationalStudies(SAIS)atJohnsHopkinsUniversity,WashingtonD.C.(2017-2020).AgraduateofKing,sCollegeLondonandUniversiteParis1Pantheon-Sorbonne,sheholdsaPhDfrom
7、SciencesPoParis.ExecutiveSummaryComputingpowerplaysakeyroleinenablingdataanalyticsandmachinelearning,incybersecurity,forscientificresearch,andinmilitarydomainslikenuclearwarheaddesignanddetonationsimulation.Computinghasindustrialramifications,notleastduetoarelativelysmallnumberofplayersthatholdkeysp
8、otsinthevaluechain.Thisstudyfocusesontwocomplementarysegmentsofcomputing:high-performancecomputing(HPC,alsoknownas“supercomputing)，andquantumcomputing.HPChasforseveraldecadesbeenusedinscientificresearch,meteorology,andthemilitary-andstatescontinuetodrivetheneedsformassivecomputers.Butthefieldisalsow
9、itnessingadiversificationofuses,withnewneedsstemmingfrombigdataapplicationsforindustry.Meanwhile,quantumcomputingisstillatanexperimentalstagebuthashighlydisruptivepotential,asitpromisestomultiplycomputingpowerexponentially.Quantuminformationtechnologieshaveexperiencedswiftprogressinrecentyears,eveni
10、flarge-scalequantumcomputersmightstillbeadecadeaway.Theraceforcomputingpower,includingquantumcomputing,hasbecomeakeyelementoftheUS-Chinatechnologicalcompetition,butitisalsoastrategicpriorityforEurope.Asidefromnationalstrategies,collectiveeffortsinEuropetopoolresourcesareongoing,astheEUstrivestodevel
11、opfederatedcomputingservicesanddatainfrastructure,andalocalindustry.Europefacesmultiplechallenges,fromthesupplyofchipstoenergyconsumption,andrisks,fromexportrestrictionstocompanytakeovers.Inaddition,publicprocurementchoiceshighlightinternaldebatesandcontradictionswhenitcomestodevelopingEurope,stechn
12、ologicalpower,asthelinebetweenscientificresearchandstrategicadvantagegetsblurred.Europeisalsofacingawell-knownproblemoflackofprivateinvestmentindisruptivetechnologies.Yet,today,quantumtechnologiesdoofferanopportunitytolearnlessonsfrompastdevelopmentsinthefieldofclassicalcomputing,andtotaketherightac
13、tionsearlyon.TableofContentsINTRODUCTION5HIGH-PERFORMANCECOMPUTING8TrendsinHigh-PerformanceComputing8TheGlobalDistributionofComputingPower10TheNextLevel:TowardanExascaleMachine13TheDemocratization,ofHigh-PerformanceComputing15IsEuropesComputingPowerCatchingUp?17TheLimitsofEuropesComputingPower17Plan
14、sforMoreComputingPower:TheEuroHPCJointUndertaking20TheFutureofEuropeanSupercomputers:EnergyEfficiencyandTechnologicalSovereignty?22QUANTUMCOMPUTING24ARevolutioninComputing24TowardQuantumComputers:TechnologicalProgressandChallenges25ApplicationsandImplicationsofQuantumComputing29EuropeintheQuantumRac
15、e32US-ChinaCompetitionandQuantumTechnologies32EuropesGrowingQuantumEcosystem35PendingIssuesforEurope39CONCLUSION43IntroductionComputingpowerplaysakeyroleinenablingdataanalyticsandmachinelearning,incybersecurity,forscientificresearch,andinmilitarydomainslikenuclearwarheaddesignanddetonationsimulation
16、.Computingalsohasindustrialramifications,notleastduetoarelativelysmallnumberofplayersthatholdkeyspotsinthevaluechain.Thisleadssometoarguethatthecontoursofcomputationalpowerdefinewhohascontroloverandaccesstothebenefitsofcomputer-basedtechnologieslikeartificialintelligence.!Thisstudyfocusesontwocomple
17、mentarysegmentsofcomputing:high-performancecomputing(HPC,alsoknownas“supercomputing)，andquantumcomputing.Bothareverydistinctintermsofmaturity.HPChasbeenwidelyusedinscientificresearch,meteorology,themilitary,finance,andindustrysincethe1990s.Arguably,anation,sabilitytodeploysupercomputersconstitutesaf
18、ormofsoftpower,aswellasbeingascientificandnationalsecurityimperative.Today,afewcountriesaroundtheglobeareengagedinaracetodeploythenextlevelofsupercomputers,knownasexascalemachines.Butthefieldisalsocurrentlywitnessingadiversificationofuses,withnewneedsstemmingfrombigdataapplicationsforindustry.Meanwh
19、ile,quantumcomputingisstillatanexperimentalstagebuthashighlydisruptivepotential,inbothcivilianandmilitarydomains.Itseekstoexploitthepropertiesofquantummechanicsandassuch,constitutesawholenewparadigmincomputing.Indeed,quantumcomputingindeedwillmultiplycomputingpowerexponentially,withconsiderablecyber
20、securityimplicationsandindustrialandscientificapplications.Thefieldhasexperiencedswiftprogressinrecentyears,eveniflarge-scalequantumcomputersmightstillbeadecadeaway.Theraceforcomputingpower,includingquantumcomputing,hasbecomeakeyelementoftheUS-Chinatechnologicalcompetition.Yet,thecompetitionisfarfro
21、mbeingsolelyaUS-Chinamatter.Forlogicalreasonsconsideringitsapplicationsandimplications,computingpowerisastrategicpriorityforEuropeangovernmentsaswellasfor1. T.Hwang,ComputationalPowerandtheSocialImpactofArtificialIntelligence,workingpaper,2018,p.7,availableat:https:/DaD:NI.C.Horowitz,uMandtheDiffusi
22、onofGlobalPower,CentreforInternationalGovernanceInnovation,November16,2020,availableat:WWW.cigionline.org.theEuropeanUnion.Thisisespeciallythecasewhenitcomestoquantumcomputing.Countriesaroundtheworldhaverecognizedthatquantumsciencehasmovedfromanacademicfieldofresearchtoafast-growingtechnologicalsect
23、or.2Consequently,theyaredevelopingstrategiesinthefield,sothatcurrentdynamicsareakintoaspacerace.ThisstudyexaminesthestateofplayoftechnologicaldevelopmentsandinternationalcompetitioninHPCandquantumcomputing,WithaparticularemphasisonwhereFranceandEuropestandintheglobalraceforcomputingpower.Thefirstsec
24、tionpresentscurrentdynamicsintheHPCsector:ontheonehand,theenduringroleofstatesinshapingsupercomputersasastrategicsector,andontheotherhand,theongoing“democratization”ofthefield,withgrowingusesinindustry.ThesectionthenaddressesthegeopoliticalconsiderationsthatsupercomputingraisesforEurope,aswellasongo
25、ingstrategiesaimedatenhancingEurope,stechnologicalpowerinthefield.Thesecondsectionaddressesquantumcomputing.Afterintroducingthemainprinciplesofquantumcomputing,thesectionreviewsrecentprogressandremainingtechnologicalhurdles,aswellasthestrategicandeconomicapplicationsandimplicationsofquantumcomputing
26、.ItthenlooksatthequantumstrategiesdeployedbytheUS,China,andEuropeancountries,WithaparticularemphasisontheFrench2021QuantumPlan.ThisreportshowsthatHPCandquantumcomputingpresentbothopportunitiesandchallengesforEuropeancountriesastheyseektoleveragethepotentialsofcomputingpowerforthedataeconomyandnation
27、alsecurity,aswellasforaddressingcriticalsocietalchallengesinareasofhealthandclimatechange.3AsidefromnationalstrategiesandinvestmentsinHPCandquantumtechnologies,collectiveeffortsinEuropetopoolresourcesareongoing.TheEUisindeedstrivingtodevelopfederatedcomputingservicesanddatainfrastructure,andtosecure
28、resilientsupplychainsincomponents,technologies,andknowledge,notleasttolimitrisksofdisruption.fComputingtechnologiesraisechallengesforEurope-fromthesupplyofchipstoenergyconsumption-andrisks,fromexportrestrictionstocompanytakeovers.YetinbothHPCandquantumcomputing,procurementchoiceschallengeEuropeinits
29、internaldebatesandcontradictionswhenitcomestodevelopingits2. G.Brennenetal.,uAnAustralianStrategjrfortheQuantumRevolution,op.cit.tp.10.3. M.Heitor,PortugueseMinisterforScienceandTechnologjrandHigherEducation,citedinCounciloftheEU,wCouncilAgreementSecuresEUfinancingofHighPerformanceComputing,Pressrel
30、ease,May28t2021,availableat:www.consilium.europa.eu.technologicalpower,asthelinebetweenscientificresearchandstrategicadvantagegetsblurred.Europeisalsofacingawell-knownproblemoflackofprivateinvestmentindisruptivetechnologies.Quantumtechnologiesdoofferanopportunitytolearnlessonsfrompastdevelopmentsint
31、hefieldofclassicalcomputing,andtotaketherightactionsearlyon.IfEuropefails,itwillhavenotonlyeconomicbutalsoserioussecurityimplications.High-PerformanceComputingHigh-performancecomputing(HPC)referstocomputersystemsoftencalled“supercomputers”withextremelyhighcomputationalpower,abletosolveverycomplexpro
32、blemsathighSPeed.4Thedevelopmentofsupercomputershasbeenandremainslargelystate-driven,astheiracquisitionandrunningcostsarehighandastheyhaveusesinnationalsecurity(e.g.,nuclearsimulation),scientificandmedicalresearch,andclimatemodelling.Nonetheless,theriseofthebigdataeconomyandthecomputingpowerrequired
33、totrainArtificialIntelligence(AI)algorithmsandtorunsimulations,togetherWiththegrowthofcloudcomputing,have“democratized”therecoursetohigh-performancecomputinginindustry.Today,UScomputerandprocessorcompaniesdominatethemarketinEurope,whileChinahasdevelopedindigenoustechnology.Europeisseekingtocatchupby
34、supportingitsindustrialbaseanddevelopingitsprocessortechnologybutisfacinginternalhurdlesthatareindustrial,technological,andpolitical.TrendsinHigh-PerformanceComputingThecurrentconceptbehindhigh-performancecomputersappearedinthelate1980s-early1990swiththeadventofmassivelyparallelprocessing,wherebysup
35、ercomputersstartedtobebuiltwithhundredsofthousandsofprocessingcores.Thechartbelowshowsthepaceatwhichcomputingpowerhasgrownfromthe1990sonwardasaresult.ComputingpowerintheHPCjargonismeasuredinfloatingpointoperationspersecond(flop/s).Whileitwaspreviouslymeasuredingigaflop/s(i.e.,onebillion(o9)operation
36、spersecond),computerpowerisnowmeasuredinpetaflop/s(1O15operationspersecond)and,verysoon-possiblybytheendof2021-inexaflop/s:IOI8oronequintillion(onebillionbillion)operationspersecond.Toprovidean4. CounciloftheEU,uCouncilAgreementSecuresEUfinancingofHigh-PerformanceComputing,op.cit.1990200520102015202
37、0Listsindicationofscale,apetaflopicsupercomputerisaboutonemilliontimesmorepowerfulthanahigh-endlaptopsPerformanceDevelopmentinSupercomputers10EFlop/s1EFlop/s100PFIop/s10PFIop/s1PFIop/s100TFIop/s10TFIop/s1TFIop/s1GFIop/s10GFIopS1GFIop/s1MFIop/sSuma#1#500Source:Top500.Governmentshavehistoricallyplayed
38、animportantroleinthedevelopmentandgrowthofcomputertechnology,especiallyHPCtechnologye-evenif,inrecentdecades,computerchipdevelopmenthasbeenmainlydrivenbytheprivatesector,notleastbythesmartphoneindustry.Thepublicsectorisstillthemainconsumerofconcentratedcomputingpowertoday.In2018,inEurope,over90%ofHP
39、Coperatingtimewasbyuniversitiesoracademicresearchcenters,whereastheremaining10%servedcommercialpurposesandendusers.7Chiefamongstate-drivenusesofcomputingpowerarenationalsecurityuses:supercomputerscanbeusedtodesign,develop,manufacture,andtestweapons(includingnuclearweapons)andweaponsplatforms;collect
40、,process,analyze,anddisseminateintelligence;forcryptography;forcombatsimulation;formissiledefense,etc.Supercomputersarealsousedforweatherforecastingand5. R.Verger,MeettheNewFastestSupercomputerintheWorld,PopularScience,June13,2018,availableat:WwW.D0D.6. See,G.J.McLoughlinandI.F.Fergusson,41High-Perf
41、ormanceComputersandExportControlPolicjr:IssuesforCongress,CongressionalResearchService,Report,May5,2005.7. B.-S.Gigleretal.,44FinancingtheFutureofSupercomputing”,EuropeanInvestmentBank,Report,2018,p.35scientificresearch,includingmedicalresearch.TheCovid-19pandemicissaidtohaveengenderednewneeds,forbi
42、omedicalapplications,newdrugsdevelopment,anddigitaltwinsofhumans(seebelow).8Sincesupercomputershavedualapplications,theyhavebeensubjecttoexportrestrictionssincethe1990s.9Today,theUS-ChinesecompetitionclearlyplaysoutintherealmofHPC,duetoconcernsaboutbothintellectualpropertyandthepotentialusesthatcanb
43、emadeofUSchiptechnology.InApril2021,theBidenadministrationaddedseveralentitiesinvolvedinHPCtotheEntityList,includingChina,sNationalSupercomputingCenter(whichisinvolvedinthesimulationofhypersonicvehicles).ThispreventsexportofUStechnologytosuchentities.10TheGlobalDistributionofComputingPowerAcrosstheg
44、lobe,asmallnumberofcountriespossesssignificantsupercomputingcapabilities.ChinaandtheUSleadtherace,followedbysecondtierHPCpowers:Japan,Germany,France,Netherlands,Ireland,theUK,andCanada(seeTable1).Intermsofcompanies,intheHPCsector,thetopthreevendorsareLenovo(China,#1vendorworldwide,with36.8%marketsha
45、re),Inspur(China,11.6%),HewlettPackardEnterprise(HPE,US,9%),Sugon(China,7.8%)andAtos(France,7.2%).IfweincludeCray,whichHPEacquiredin2019,andwhichholds6.4%ofthemarket,HPEhasmoveduptothesecondplace,with17.4%.Thepicturechangesifonelooksatcomputerperformanceratherthanmarketshare.11Then,thefirstplayerisF
46、ujitsu(Japan,19.8%).TheFugku,unveiledinJune2021,isthemostpowerfulmachineintheworld.Ithasthreetimesthepowerofthesecondmostpowerful.Itscomputingpowerisequivalentto20millionsmartphonescombined,12anditishalfwaytowardstheexascale(seebelow).8. S.VanDorpe,SupercomputerScrapShowsEU,sDigitalDilemma,Politico,
47、June10,2021.9. SeeMcLoughlinandFergusson,“HighPerformanceComputersandExportControlPolicy,op.cit.,foranoverviewofthedevelopmentofUSexportcontrolsforHPCinthe1990stoearly2000s.ForanaccountoftheCold-Warperiod,seeF.Cain,“ComputersandtheColdWar:UnitedStatesRestrictionsontheExportofComputerstotheSOvietUnio
48、nandCommunistChinaw,JournaZofContemporaryHistory,Vol.40,No.1,2005,pp.131-147.ifh10. E.NakashimaandG.Smith,wChinaBuildsAdvancedWeaponsSystemsUsingAmerican11. TheT0p500rankingisabenchmarkratherthanapreciseindicationofcomputers,performance,astheevaluationisnotdonebasedonhowtheyperformreal-lifeapplications.12. S.Matsuoka,DirectoroftheRIKENCenterforComputationalScience,attheForumTeratec2021,onJune22,2021,videoavailableat:https:/teratec.eu.Table1:DistributionofSupercomputersintheTOP500ListbyCountrySource:Top500,Jun
