《纽约联储-了解美国气候变化与不平等之间的联系（英）-2021.11-42正式版.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《纽约联储-了解美国气候变化与不平等之间的联系（英）-2021.11-42正式版.docx（36页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、STAFFREPORTSN 0.9 91N OV EMBER 2 02 1UnderstandingtheLinkagesbetweenClimateChangeandInequalityintheUnitedStatesRuchiAvtarKristianBlickleRajashriChakrabartiJanaviJanakiramanMaximPinkovskiyIElHKAlKlSIRVFBANK/NEWYORKUnderstandingtheLinkagesbetweenClimateChangeandInequalityintheUnitedStatesRuchiAvtar,Kr
2、istianBlickle,RajashriChakrabarti,JanaviJanakiraman,andMaximPinkovskiyFederalReserveBankOfNeWYorkStajfReports,no.991November2021JELclassification:Q54,Q58,D63AbstractWeconductareviewoftheexistingacademicliteraturetooutlinepossiblelinksbetweenclimatechangeandinequalityintheUnitedStates.First,researche
3、rshaveshownthattheimpactofbothphysicalandtransitionrisksmaybeunevenacrosslocation,income,race,andage.Thisisdrivenbyaregionsgeographyaswellasitsadaptationcapabilities.Second,measuresthatindividualsandgovernmentstaketoadapttoclimatechangeandtransitiontoloweremissionsriskincreasinginequality.Finally,wh
4、ilefederalaidandinsurancecoveragecanmitigatethedirectimpactofphysicalrisks,theirstructuremay-inadvertentlysustainandentrenchexistinginequalities.Weconcludebyoutliningsomedirectionsforfutureresearchonthenexusbetweeninequalityandclimatechange.Keywords:climate,naturaldisaster,inequalityAvtar,Blickle,Ch
5、akrabarti,Janakiraman,Pinkovskiy:FederalReserveBankofNewYork(emails:ruchi.avtarny.frb.org,kristian.blickleny.frb.org,rajashri.chakrabartiny.frb.org,janavi.janakiramanny.frb.org,maxim.pinkovskiyny.frb.org).TheauthorsthankMarkAndrews,NicolasBecka,TerriJ.Fowlkes,AndrewHaughwout,BeverlyHirtle,AkashKanqj
6、ia,NicholasKlagge,DonMorgan,MichaelJ.Roy,JoaoSantos,LamairJ.Tanner,andKatherineTilghmanHillforvaluableinput,suggestions,andcomments.Thispaperpresentspreliminaryfindingsandisbeingdistributedtoeconomistsandotherinterestedreaderssolelytostimulatediscussionandelicitcomments.Theviewsexpressedinthispapera
7、rethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflectthepositionoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYorkortheFederalReserveSystem.Anyerrorsoromissionsaretheresponsibilityoftheauthor(s).Toviewtheauthors,disclosurestatements,visithttps:/www.newyorkfed.org/research/stafLreports/sr99l.html.IntroductionAlthoughtheeffe
8、ctsofclimatechangeoneconomicoutputandfinancialstabilityhavereceivedconsiderableattentioninpublicdiscourse,scholarlyliterature,andpolicydiscussions,theinteractionsbetweenclimatechangeandincome,wealthandhealthinequality We interchangeably use economic inequality to describe these inequalities.haverece
9、ivedfarlessdiscussion.However,itisincreasinglylikelythatclimatechangewillnotonlyhaveimportanteffectsoneconomicoutput,butthatitwillhaveprofoundeffectsonthegeographic,socioeconomic,anddemographicdistributionofoutput.Thispaperpresentsaliteraturereviewofexistingevidenceonmechanismsbywhichclimatechangeca
10、naffecteconomicinequalityintheUnitedStates.First,wereviewwhetherrisksfromclimatechangeaffectpopulationsandregionsdifferently.Second,weconsiderwhetherinstitutionsandpoliciesaroundclimateriskmayhavedifferentialeffectsindifferentregionsandondifferentcommunities.Finally,weidentifyopenquestionsandgapsint
11、heliteraturethatcouldbenefitfromadditionalexplorationandresearch.Risksassociatedwithclimatechangecanbedecomposedintotwocategoriesphysicalrisksandtransitionrisks.Physicalrisksrefertothepotentialforlossesasclimate-relatedchanges(storms,droughts,floods,sealevelrises,etc.)disruptbusinessoperations,destr
12、oycapital,andinterrupteconomicactivity.Transitionrisksrefertothepotentialforlossesresultingfromashiftinpolicy(forexample,movingtowardalower-carboneconomy),consumersentiment,technologicalinnovationandmanyothersthatwillaffectthevalueofcertainassetsandliabilities.Transitionriskscanalsotaketheformofpers
13、onaladaptationmechanismstocombatclimatechangethroughmigrationorinnovation.Wediscussinsectionsbelowwhetherthesephysicalandtransitionrisksassociatedwithclimatechangeareunevenacrossgeography,income,race,andage.See Chakrabarti (2021).Wefindmultipleimportantchannels,highlightedbyvariousstrandsofliteratur
14、e,thatpointtothehypothesisthattheheterogeneityindirectphysicalimpactsofclimatechange,thedifferentialadaptationcapabilitiesofdifferentregions,andtheeffectsofclimatepolicyandinstitutionsmayworktoincreaseeconomicinequality.First,theliteratureonthegeographiclocationofthedirectphysicalimpactsofclimatecha
15、ngesuggeststhatregionsoftheUnitedStatesthatarehometoabove-averagesharesoflow-incomeandminoritygroupsarelikelytosufferthegreatestmeteorologicaleffectsofclimatechange.Inparticular,theU.S.South,withthelowestpercapitaincomeoftheU.S.censusregions,ispredictedtoexperiencethegreatestleveloftotaldirectdamage
16、sfromclimatechange.Second,agrowingliteratureinhouseholdfinancepresentsevidencethatlow-incomeandminorityAmericansarelimitedinhowtheymayadapttoclimatechangebecausetheyhavelessaccesstoinsuranceandarelesslikelytohaveaccesstocreditwhenneeded.Moreover,anothergrowingbodyofworksuggeststhatamajoradaptationme
17、chanismtoclimatechangeworldwidewillbemigrationtotheUnitedStatesfromlow-incomecountriesthatwillbeevenmoreaffectedbyclimatechange.Thismigrationislikelytomechanicallyincreaseinequality(theindirecteffectsthroughwagepressuresaremoremixed).Theliteratureonthelabormarketeffectsoftransitionfromhigh-tolow-car
18、bontechnologiesdoesnotprovidehardevidencethatadditionaljobswillbecreatedonnet,andtheremaybesomeevidencethatthejobscreatedwilltendtorequirehigherskills.Ontheotherhand,thereisasolidliteratureshowingthatadaptationtoclimatechangeintheUnitedStatessofarhasimprovedhealthoutcomesforlow-incomeandminoritypopu
19、lationsintheU.S.Southeast.Finally,alargeliteraturedocumentsthatinstitutions(suchastheFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA),banksandnonbankfinancialinstitutionsandtheNationalFloodInsuranceProgram)canplayanimportantroleinmitigatingtheimpactsofrisks,includingclimaterisks,butoftenprovideaidinwaysthatsu
20、stainexistinginequalities,evenifinadvertently.Suchapatternpertainstothedisbursementofdisasterinsurance,aswellastopublicpolicyinurbandesignandthesitingofenvironmentallyhazardousfacilities.I.DoPhysicalEffectsofClimateChangeIncreaseInequality?Inthissection,wediscusswhetherphysicalrisksfromclimatechange
21、affectgeographiesandpopulationsdifferently.Westartwiththegeographicdistributionofclimateriskandfindthattheincidenceofthedirectphysicalimpactsofclimatechangeisveryheterogeneousacrossregions.Wethendiscusswhetherclimatechangeanddisastersaffectmortality,locationofresidence,productivity,andconflictbydemo
22、graphics,socioeconomiccharacteristics,andgeography.A. DifferencesinRegionalDistributionofClimateRiskRegionaldisparitiesinclimateriskandnaturaldisastersareundeniable.TheFourthNationalClimateAssessment(Carteretal.2018)highlightsthattheU.S.Southeastisexpectedtobeespeciallyexposedtoclimatechange.Thatreg
23、ionishometothreeofthenationsfivelargecitieswithintensifyingheatwavesalongmultipledimensions(includingintensity,duration,etc.)Birmingham,NewOrleans,andRaleighandisalsouniquelyexposedtovector-bornediseases.TheU.S.Southeastalsohasalongoceancoastlinethatishighlyexposedtohurricanes.TheNationalClimateAsse
24、ssmentstatesthat“manySoutherncitiesareparticularlyvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechangecomparedtocitiesinotherregions“becauseSoutherncitiesaredisproportionatelylocatedinfloodplainsandhaveolderinfrastructure.TheSoutheastisnottheonlyregionexpectedtobeaffectedbyclimatechange.Forexample,theNationalClima
25、teAssessmentnotesthattheshareofforestareaburnedbywildfiresintheSouthwestin2015wouldhavebeenapproximatelyhalfaslargeifnotfortheeffectsofclimatechange,whileasrecentlyasin1995,climatechangeaccountedforonlyasmallfractionofthisshare.Theremaybefurtherinequalityintheimpactofphysicalrisksfromclimatechangewi
26、thinregionsifindividualswholiveinthemostdetrimentallyaffectedareasalsotendtobedisadvantagedexante.Buchananetal.(2020)identifythecoastalstatesandcitieswhereaffordablehousing-bothsubsidizedandmarketdriven一ismostatriskoffuturefloodingandrisingsealevels(Exhibit1).Theyfindthatresidentsinlow-lyingaffordab
27、lehousing,whotendtohavelow-incomesandtoliveinoldandpoor-qualitystructures,areespeciallyvulnerabletosealevelriseandincreasedcoastalflooding(seealsoSisson2020).TheU.S.Southeasthasalongercoastline-fromtheChesapeakeBaytothemouthoftheRioGrande-thananyotherregioninthecontinentalUnitedStates,makingitpartic
28、ularlyexposedtocoastalflooding.Incontrast,CaliforniaandtheMid-Atlanticregion-NewYork,NewJersey,andConnecticut一haveshortercoastlinesbutmoredenseeconomicactivityontheircoastlines.Evidencealsoindicatesthatalreadydisadvantagedneighborhoodsareparticularlyaffectedbythedirectimpactsofclimatechange.Bleemera
29、ndvanderKlaauw(2017)findthatafterHurricaneKatrina,declinesinhomeownershipofaffectedhouseholdsweremarkedlysmallerforindividualsfrompredominantlywhiteneighborhoodsthanforhouseholdsfromminorityneighborhoodsandalso,forindividualswithhighcreditscoresthanthosewithlowcreditscores.Anumberofstudieshavealsodo
30、cumentedthathomesinareasofhigherfloodriskareoftendiscountedaggressivelyasadirectconsequenceofbeingexposedtothisfloodrisk(seeBinandPolasky,2004;Binetal.,2008;Kousky,2010;andAtreyaetal.,2013).1.in,MaandPhan(2021)providesurveyevidencethatminoritiesarealsodisproportionatelylikelytobelocatednearenvironme
31、ntallyhazardoussitesdespitebeingmoreworriedaboutpollution.Multiplejournalisticinvestigations(seeforexample,PlumerandPopovich(2020)documentthatlow-incomeandminorityareasofmanyU.S.citieshaveconsiderablyfewergreenspacesandconsiderablymoreconcretepavingthandomoreaffluentandnon-minorityareas,andthatthese
32、areasarealsoconsiderablyhotter.Giventhattheclimatedamagefunctionislikelyconvex(Hsiangetal.2019),similarincreasesintemperatureinwarmerlocalitiesincitiesarelikelytoleadtogreaterdamagestoproductivityandhealththantheywouldincoolerareas.Inparticular,HeilmannandKahn(2019)documentthattheincreasedurbanheati
33、slandeffectinminorityareascontributestohigherratesofviolenceintheseareas.GillinghamandHuang(2021)findthatairpollutionfrommaritimeportshasuneveneffectsonhealthoutcomesacrossracialgroups.Increasesinairpollutionstemmingfromweather-drivenvesselstaysinporthaveleadtothreetimesasmanyhospitalvisitspercapita
34、amongBlackindividualsinnearbycommunitiesasamongwhiteindividuals.AsclimatechangehasincreasedtheforestareaconsumedbywildfiresintheWest(AbatzoglouandWilliams2016),andasforestcombustiongeneratesparticulatematterthatpollutestheair,thehealthdamagesfromclimate-changedrivenairpollutionwillbedistributeduneve
35、nlyacrossregions.Pollutionfromforestfirescanaffectregionsfarawayfromthelocationoftheoriginalfire,forexample,pollutionfromtheBootlegFireinOregonreachedChicagoandNewYorkinJuly2021(Schwartz2021),implyingthatWesternwildfireswillcontinuetoaffectnotjustthePacificwestandtheNorthwest,butalsoareasfarawayfrom
36、thisregion.B. DistributionofMortalityRisksHumanbeingsareoptimizedforrelativelymildtemperatures,soextremeheatorcoldtendstoresultinexcessdeaths.Climatechangemayaffectmortalitythroughincreasingtheprevalenceofextremeheat,decreasingtheprevalenceofextremecold,orincreasingtheprevalenceofextremetemperatures
37、throughgreatervarianceintheweather.Hsianget.al.(2017)lookatthespatialdifferenceinall-causemortalityratesacrosstheUnitedStates.Theyfindthatwarmingreducesmortalityincoldnortherncountieswhileitincreasesmortalityinhotsouthernae.counties(Exhibit2)/Theresultingpatterninducessubstantialincreasesinmortality
38、(upto80per100,000)intheU.S.SoutheastaswellaspartsoftheSouthwest(forexample,southernArizona),smallermortalityincreases(20per100,000)atthelatitudesofMarylandandMissouri,andmortalitydecreasesinmostoftheNortheast,thenorthempartoftheMidwest,someareasofthePlainsandMountainstatesandinthePacificNorthwest.C.
39、 DifferentialProductivityShocksbySectorAnotherwayinwhichclimatechangecouldincreaseinequalityisbydirectlyloweringproductivityincertainindustriesthatemploythepoorandonwhichthepoorrely,forexampleagriculture.Decliningagriculturalyieldsmayresultinincreasedfoodprices(Crane-Droeschetal.2019)andgiventhatlow
40、-incomecommunitiesspendahigherproportionoftheirbudgetonfood,thiscanhavedisproportionateeffectsonthem.However,DeschenesandGreenstone(2006)arguethat,onaverage,theeffectsofclimatechangeonU.S.agriculturalproductivityareambiguous,withthebestevidence(basedonpaneldataassociationsbetweenweatherandagricultur
41、al3Theseestimatesincludenotonlythedirecteffectsofchangingtemperaturesbuttheindirecteffectsofunequaladaptationcapabilities.outcomes)beingconsistentwithverymodestdeclines.Suchanaverageresultisreassuringfromthepointofviewoffoodprices(which,inafrictionlessmarket,shoulddependonlyonaverageagriculturalprod
42、uctivity).Nevertheless,theeffectsofclimatechangeontheagriculturalsectormayinfluenceinequalitythroughotherchannels.TheFourthNationalClimateAssessment(Carteretal.2018)statesthatcountiesintheSoutheastwilllosethegreatestnumberoflaborhours,onaverage,relativetocountiesinotherU.S.regions,largelybecausethey
43、disproportionatelyrelyonruraleconomicactivitythatisparticularlysensitivetochangesinheatandhumidity.Moregenerally,Hsianget.al.(2017)showthatclimatechangewillgenerateagriculturalproductivityimprovementsathigherlatitudesandagriculturalproductivitydeclinesatlowerones.Exhbit3depictstheredistributioninagr
44、iculturalyieldsacrosstheUnitedStates,wherethemostnegativeimpactisseeninpredominantlylower-incomecountiesintheSouth.1.ikefood,energyisanimportantcomponentofthebudgetofthepoor.Hsiangetal.(2017)providesevidencethatenergyexpendituresarelikelytodisproportionatelyriseintheSoutheastasaconsequenceofclimatec
45、hange,whichmaydiSproportionatelyaffectlow-incomeindividuals.Itisworthconsideringthedirecteffectsofclimatechangeoneconomicactivitymoregenerally.Roth-TranandWilson(2020)investigatetheeffectofnaturaldisastersandfindevidenceofincreasesinpercapitapersonalincomeoverthelongrun,althoughtheyfindconsiderableh
46、eterogeneityinimpactsbypre-disastercountyincome.Differentiatingbyquartilesofpre-disastercountyincome,theyfindthatcountieswithbelow-medianpre-disasterincomepercapitadidnotseeanincreaseuntilsixyearsafterthedisasterwhileabove-mediancountiessawanincreaseoneyearafterthedisaster.Therefore,climatechangemay
47、makethedistributionofeconomicactivitymoreunequalevenwithoutaffectingitonaverage.D. DistributionofClimateEjfectsonConflictAdditionally,thereisresearchshowingthatextremeclimateconditionsincreaseconflictandcrime.Burkeet.al.(2015),inameta-analysisoffifty-fivestudiesencompassingdevelopedanddevelopingcoun
48、tries,includingtheUnitedStates.Theyshowthatdeviationsfrommoderatetemperaturesandprecipitationpatternssystematicallyincreaseconflictrisk,withcontemporaneoustemperatureshavingthelargestaverageimpactoninterpersonalandintergroupconflict.Theyalsofindthatinlow-incomesettings,extremerainfallevents一toomucho
49、rtoolittlerain-thatadverselyaffectagriculturalincomeareassociatedwithhigherratesofpersonalviolenceandpropertycrime.Relatedly,Hsianget.al.(2017)presentthespatialdistributionoftheexpectedeffectofclimatechangeonpropertycrimeandviolentcrimeratesacrosstheUnitedStates(Exhibits4-Aand4-B).TheyfindthateffectsonviolentcrimesisuniformacrosslocationswhiletheeffectsonpropertycrimesaremoreconcentratedintheNorth.Hence,risingcrimeislikelytoworkagainst
