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1、数字追凶第二季第11集Numb3rsSeason2Episode11该死电♥话♥哪去了？Damnit,whereisthephone?colby你什么看法？Whatdoyousay,Colby?嗨donHey,Don.又是地球解放运动组织的支持者干的？FriendsfromtheEarthLiberationMovementagain,huh?是啊这是第四起保护生态的火灾了Yup.So,thismakesforthefourthecofire.你说烧了一个汽车店铺Youtellhowyouregonnasavetheworld是拯救世界的方式公？byburningd
2、ownanSUVdealership,youknow?我们还找到了一个人Yeah,well,allIcantellyouis,wegotaguyoverhere这伙计再也不能出来呼吸新鲜空气了whosnotgonnabearoundtoenjoythefreshair.seangrasso男性32岁初级推销员SeanGrasso.Hes32,juniorsalesman.店主说他可能是早早过来写报告的Theownersayshethinksheprobablycameinhereearlytodohispaperwork.通知家属了么？Notifythefamily?是的megan跟他妻子谈了
3、Yeah,Megantalkedtohiswife.她怀孕四个月了Evidently,theyhaveafour-monthold.don嗨我收到你的短♥信♥了Don.Hey.Igotyourmessage.好的弟弟你你没必要过来的Yeah.You-Youdidnthavetocomedown,buddy.啊嗯四次火灾的数据还不能确定什么Aah.Um,fourfiresdoesntprovideenoughdatatocreateahotzone所以我过来看看能不能再找到些别的soIthought.Ithoughttheremightbesomethingelseh
4、ereIcanworkwith.噢过来-Charlie真的没什么东西Oh,comehere.-Itsreallynotmuch,Charlie.就是一个烧光了的SUV和亭子ItsjusttheburnedoutSUVandthisboothhere.嗨paul我看看Hey,Paul.Letmesee.don-最近如何Don.-Howsitgoing?还好Allrightcolby-paulColby.-Paul.我是CharleseppesFBI顾问mCharlesEppes.maFBIconsultant.paulstevens洛杉矶消防部纵火案调直员你是一个纵火专家？PaulStevens
5、.LAFDArsonInvestigator.Areyouanarsonexpert?不我是一个数学家mamathematician.你可能奇怪为什么我会在这里出现Youmightbewonderingwhatmdoingatthesceneofanarson.对我来说一点也不奇怪Hey,makessensetome.我学的纵火书里都是数学方程1mean,I-vegotarsonbooksfullofequations.点火,燃烧计算氧气流速Openandcontainedflamecalculators,uh,flowratesforoxygen.对燃烧的研究很大程度上是基于流体力学的Wel
6、l,the-thestudyofcombustionisbasedlargelyonfluidmechanics.Prandtl、Euler还有Smit作出了很大贡献Youknow,theressomeamazingworkdonebyPrandtlandEuler,Smits.那些都是书本上的东西Equationsareinthebooks,notthatinhere.实际上我是跟实物打交道MostlyIworkwithphysicalindicators-scorchmarks比如烧焦点引火装置燃烧模式从中找出签名ignitiondevices,burnpatterns.Tryingtob
7、uildasignature.有点像给纵火者建、数据库ArsonistsM.0.,thatkindofthing.那么你发现什么了没？So,anything?是啊SUV是用燃♥烧♥瓶♥引燃的Yeah.The,uh,SUVwentupwithaMolotovcocktail.跟另外几起一样Thatsthesameasalltheotherfires.这个治安亭呢？Andthesecurityboothhere?香烟和火柴盒经典纵火方式Cigaretteandabookofmatches.Classic,old-schooligniter.为什么要烧这个亭
8、子Whybotherwiththebooth?嗯里面有个电♥话♥Well,theresaphoneinside.可能是想保证没人可以打电♥话♥求救吧Probablywantedtomakesurenoonecalledforhelp.倒霉的还是那个早起打电♥话♥的推销员算了不说了Onlythesalesmanshowsupearlyandtriestomakeacallanyway.开门的时候氧气吸入形成倒风Opensthedoor,influxofoxygen-createsabackdraft.你知道么人们
9、总是低估了火的威力Imean,peopleunderestimatethepowerofafire即使是很小的火evenasmallone.Youknow?我们现在干点什么？Whatdoyousuggestwedoatthispoint?想根据纵火方式抓纵火犯Tryingtocatchanarsonistbyhissignatureislike就像是根据影子来抓人tryingtoidentifysomeonebytheirshadow.Imean.要是可以把教授借给我的话我过后可能还能给你们点什么ImightbeabletocomeupwithalotmoreifIcanborrowyour,
10、uh,professorhere.好吧没问题去吧Yeah,Imean,itsfinewithme,goforit.十分荣幸Sure.Itsmypleasure.我可以看看你的本子么？当然CanIseewhatyou,reworkingwith?Sure.在Colorado这些人曾迫使一个滑雪场项目下马Youknow,inColorado,theseguyseventuallydestroyedaskiresort.他们留下一个条幅写着你们建立我们烧毁Theyleftabannerthatsaid,Ifyoubuildit,theE-L-Mwillburnit.,我现在担心的是每一次火灾他们都变
11、得更有攻击性了Youknowwhatwasreallyconcerningmeisthatwitheachfire,theygetmoreaggressive.我们每天都用到数学Weallusematheveryday来预测天气topredictweather计算时间totelltime管理金钱tohandlemoney.数学不只是公式和方程Mathismorethanformulasandequations.它是逻辑理性It,slogic.rationality.是用你的大脑来解决我们所知的最大的秘密Itsusingyourmindtosolvethebiggestmysteriesthat
12、weknow.没有比观察Thereisnomoreopendoor蜡烛的燃烧方式更好的bywhichonecanenterthestudyofnaturalscience进入自然科学大门的办法了thanbyconsideringthephenomenaofacandle.法拉第说的Faradaysaidthat.法拉第？Faraday?我怀疑他有没有用他的洞察力来解决过纵火案IwonderifFaradayeverusedhisinsightstocrackanarsoncase.我好像问到了挫败的味道？Oh,domysensorsdetectfrustration?对你的鼻子很好使Yes,y
13、oursensorsarecorrect.纵火案的调杳涉及7个因素Arsoninvestigationsconsidersevenpointsofdata-燃料燃烧速度焦痕fuel,burnrate,scorchmarks烟雾模式火焰温度点火装置还有smokepatterns,flametemperature,igniter,and,uhoh哦起火点这些加起来叫做火灾签名pointoforigin-tocreatewhatscalledafiresignature.噢7个因素Oh,sevenpoints.怎么听起来像是指纹之类Youknow,thissoundslesslikeasignatu
14、re,morelikeafingerprint.这就是问题所在它不像指纹那样Well,see,butthats-that,sjustitItsnotlikeafingerprint.纵火签名不精确也不特定Arsonsignaturesarenotnearlyasaccurate,noraretheyasspecific.我需要更多的参数Ineedmoreparameters.所以得可以特异性的量化火灾的参数Everythingthatgivesafireitsspecificcharacter.好吧你怎么做呢？Allright.Whatstobedonehere?我已经把这7个元素分成了一些子
15、集Well,vealreadystartedbybreakingdowntheinitialsevendatapoints我相信还有更多的东西intoseveralsubsets,although,msuretheresmoretofollow.你知道么如果美国的汽车Doyourealizethatifeveryvehicleinthisnation都能每加仑汽油多跑2.7英里averagedjusttwopointsevenmoremilespergallon我们就可以切断对中东石油的依赖了WecouldcutourdependencyonMideastoil?你真的认为纵火者是这么想的么？
16、Areyouseriouslytryingtojustifythearsonistsmotive?不不不听我把话说完No,no,no,no,no,no.Hearmeout.我只不过是想说ELM组织的目的是生态保护mmerelymakingthepointthattheE-L-Msgoalsareecological.他们不是疯子Theyrenotpathological.larry我对这些火灾的社会学意义并不关心1.arry,mnotreallyinterestedinthesocialsignificanceofthesefires.Charles你应该关心的Well,youshouldbe
17、,Charles.不我不应该你-应-该No,Ishouldntbe,actually.-Yes,youshouldbe.Listentomehere.听我说火焰摧毁的同时也在产生Asfiredestroys,italsocreates.不只是光和热量还有固体产物Andnotjustheatorlight,butasolidproduct.烟灰？Soot?烟灰Soot.这些火焰产生出的烟灰使火焰呈:现不同的色彩Andthesootcreatedwithinthatfireiswhatgivestheflameitscolor.有些是肉眼无法识别的Somethingyoucan,tevensee这
18、些东西决定了火焰的特性andyetitdefinesitsentirenature.larry1.arry.CharlesCharles.说实话还是不明白Allduerespect,Idontgetit.最后一次火灾夺去了一条人命其他的几次没有Thismostrecentfireclaimedalife.Theothersdidnt.意图Intent.继续Keepgoing.意图意图和结果Intentand.Intentandresult.如果每个纵火犯的意图不同Ifeacharsonistapproachesafiredifferently那么每次火灾.thenit.thenitmakess
19、ensethateveryfireset.就都会随纵火者而不同Wouldbeasuniqueasthepersonsettingit.不只是方法的不同Andnotjustintermsofthemethodused而是整个火灾的不同butintermsof-oftheentirecharacterofthatfire.就像是.So,whatyou,retalkingaboutreallyislikea,um.火灾的指纹likeafingerprintforfires.“火灾纹”Afireprint.,胡说八道Thatsridiculous.我们ELM会在suv市场份额卜.浪费精力么Whywou
20、ldtheE-L-MwasteoureffortsonanSUVlot?油价还有常识会去做的Gaspricesandcommonsensearegonnadothatworkforus.你们的组织很一些Yourgroupsconnectedtoactsofsabotage建筑工地木材场油井的破坏活动相关againstconstructionsites,andlumbermills,andoilwells.每个长眼睛的都知道Andhasacknowledgedeverysingleone.ELM和这些火灾没关系TheEarthLiberationMovementhasnoinvolvementi
21、nthesefires我们说了好多遍了andweverepeatedlysaidso.那久再给我们解释一次吧So,tellmeagainthenwhyitis为什么你们的标志会出现在所有四个犯罪现场呢？thatyourlogoisspraypaintedatallfourofthecrimescenes?任何人都可以在墙上写3个字母Anyonecanputthreelettersonawall.你们也可以EvenanFBIagent.我们被怀疑纵火我们配合调查Wevecondemnedthearsons,wevecooperatedwithyourinvestigation.你们没有Actua
22、lly,youhavent.我们跟你要你们的花名册你们把我们告到了法庭Weaskedyouforyourmembershiproster,andyoutookustocourt.我们是一个国际组织有200多分支Wereanationalorganizationwith200activemembers还有10倍以上的合作组织andtentimesthatnumberofassociates.我们不可能让你们随便骚扰Wecantletyourandomlyharassus.凶杀调杳可不是什么骚扰Ahomicideinvestigationisnotrandomharassment.FBI破坏合法反
23、对组织是出了名的TheFBIhasahistoryofundermininglegitimateprotest种族平等委员会密西西比自&hearts油♥民&hearts注♥党CongressofRacialEquality,MississippiFreedomDemocraticParty美国印第安人运动AmericanIndianMovement.这些都是上世纪60年代的事了Thatwasthe1960s.回去看看日历吧Domeafavorandcheckacalendar.火灾是想毁掉我们组织Thefiresareintendedtodiscreditus.在我
24、要出版的书里你们就是嫌疑犯Inmybook,thatmakesyoupeoplethesuspects.某人冒用他们的标志引导我们是可能的对吧Imean,itspossiblesomeonecouldbeusingtheirlogotothrowus,right?一起火灾是可能的但是四起呢Maybeinonefire.Butfour?耶？那又怎么了？Yeah?So?ELM不是一个稳定的组织Well,theE-L-Misntexactlyamonolithicorganization.成员们来来去去Kidsfloatinandfloatout是的我们不断消灭他们的老兵Allright,wejus
25、tkeepbustingtheirsoldiers他们不断招募新兵andtheylljustkeeprecruitingmore.嗨Hey.嗨Hey.噢你从哪儿搞到这个的？Oh,wheredidyougetthat?ELM办公室里E-L-Moffice.我确信在哪里看见过这个家伙mpositiveveseenthatguyinthemiddlebefore.你偷r这个照片？Youstolethispicture?嗯我想它一定是从墙上掉下来Well,itmusthavefallenoffthebulletinboard然后沾在我鞋上了andgottenstucktomyshoe.该出手时就出手对
26、吧Gottodowhatyougottodo,right?等等看到了公Waitaminute.Youjustseethat?你看那个帽子1.ookatthathat.洛杉矶中心大学1.ACenterCollege.是的也就几千孩子戴那个帼子Yeah,there,sprobablyonlyafewthousandkidswiththathaton.没错不过再看看这个Yeah.Butholdon.Lookatthis.那里Rightthere.有多少人会出现在两个火灾现场呢？Howmanyofthoseshowupattwodifferentfires?90%的ELM成员是大学生90percent
27、ofallE-L-Mactivistsarecollegestudents.他们都是青年白人男性Theyreallyoung,whiteandmale.是的但是你仔细看它们就是一个人Yeah,butlookatthat.Thatsagoodmatch.是的我同意好吧我们有了学校和肖像Yeah,Iagree.Allrighsowegotafaceandaschool.我们就差身份了WejustneedastudentIDmatch.噢大学Ah,college.这里是b室Hereitis-RoomB.等等Hey,waitaminute.门开着Doorsopen.是的但是我们发现的任何东西都会在法庭
28、上被攻击的Yeah,butanythingwefindcanbesubjecttoachallengeincourt.我们能不能一天只犯一次法？Whydontwetryandjustbreakonelawaday?你好我想找jakeeckworthHiJ,mtryingtofindJakeEckworth.你知道他去哪儿了么？CanyoutellmewhereImightfindhim?哦jake是我的舍友但没告诉我他去哪里了Uh,Jakesmyroommate,buthedoesnttellmewherehegoes.介意我看看你的房♥间么？Doyoumindifwetakea
29、lookaroundyourroom?jake是主修地理的？So,isJakeageographymajor?世界史Worldhistory.你主修什么？Whatareyoustudying?工程学Engineering.噢酷Oh.Cool.你什么也找不到他清除了历史记录Yourenotgoingtofindanything.Henukesthehistory.真的么？我们怎么知道的？Really?Andhowdoweknowthat?因为他们“关系不错grangerWell,becausetheyreprobablygoodfriends,Granger.我想他有时候会动你的机器的对不对？m
30、sureheusesyourlaptop,sometimes,right?是啊有时候SometimeS,yeah.你最好还是等他回来Youknow,youshouldreallywaituntilJakegetsback.马上就好你说他清除了历史记录Holdonasecond,yousaidhedeletesthehistory我们系统还原一下怎么样？sowhatifIrunasystemrestore.你会把他的软件都弄坏的Youregoingtomessuphissoftware.只需要用一下硬盘跟踪Justusetheharddrivetrace.你就可以在桌面上打开记录了Youcanb
31、ackdooritfromthedesktop而没必要把整个c盘搞坏insteadoftryingtodropthroughtheCdrive.ELM.com,E-L-M.com.,glendale商会?GlendaleChamberofCommerce?11地图上glendale附近有标志TheressomenotationsonthemaparoundGlendale.是的Yeah.看这个：VerdugoRidge,GlendaleXalifornia.1.ookatthis:VerdugoRidge,Glendale,California.“私人豪华度♥假♥区
32、♥2006年秋季开♥盘♥PrivateJuxurylivingspace,openingfall2006.可能就是我们要找的人Thiscouldbeourguy.在生态保护区建立的100栋别♥墅♥100unitsbeingbuiltonmountainhabitat.符合ELM的选材标准是不是？Well,thatfitstheprofileforanE-L-Mtarget,doesntit?绝对符合Itcertainlydoes.谢谢Thankyou.这里很高啊Itsprettyuphere.那是他的车蓝色本♥
33、田♥Thatshiscar,thatblueHonda.是的我看见了Yeah,Iseeit.colby我们发现他的车了你们准备好了么？Colby,wegohiscar,youready?我们守在路上了他离开的话就必须经过我们这里Wereontheaccessroad.Heleaves,hehastocomepastus.好的我们进去了Allright.Weremoving.你们去这边-明白Youguystakethisside.-Yougotit.jakeFBI不要动jake等一下Jake,FBI-dontmove.Jake,wait!jake?Jake?jake!Jake!co
34、lby他向你那边去了Colby,he,scomingyourway.don知道了CopythaDon!FBI别动FBI!Freeze!别动Freeze!把包放虾！双手举到头上快点！Dropthebag!Getyourhandsup.Getthemup!我什么都没干1haventdoneanything.香烟火机喷涂器cigarettes,lighter,spraypaint记得你们是反对用这类对大气有害的东西的Thoughtyouguyswereallaboutcleanair.我没有放任何火1didntsetanyfires.真的么？Really?新闻拍到你出现在两起ELM火灾现场Cause
35、thelocalnewsputsyouattwoE-L-Mfires在3个礼拜内inthepastthreeweeks.ELM被陷害了E-L-Misbeingsetup.为什么这么说呢？你不想宣传你们的立场了？WhatJake,youdontwantcredit?为什么呢因为现在弄出人命了？Why,sthat,causesomeone,sdeadnow?ELM的行动都是精心计划避免伤人的E-L-Meventsarecarefullyplannedtoprotecthumanlife.是啊但是Yeah,butthen.意外发生了是吧accidentshappen,right?你在这里干什么呢？j
36、ake?Whatareyoudoinghere,Jake?我来这里见一个朋友mjustmeetingafriend.真的么？你的室友说你可是经常来Really?Becauseyourroommatesaysyouvebeencomingupherealot.谁?ethan么?Who,sthaEthan?ethan是我们的跟屁虫，实际上什么也不知道Ethan,sawannabe,hedoesntknowanything.你朋友是谁？Whosyourfriend?一个本地联络人Justaconcernedcitizen.联络什么jake?在glendale放火？Concernedwithwhat,
37、Jake?SettingfiresinGlendale?大海每年可以吸收20亿吨♥的二氧化碳Oceanscanabsorbtwogigatonsofcarbonyearly.但是我们建的类似东西每年放出4倍的二氧化碳Wereputtingfourtimesthatintotheatmospherewithdevelopmentslikethis.这个人怎么说呢？Howaboutthisguy?你们烧死一个32岁的父亲放出了多少二氧化碳？Howmuchcarbonyouputintheatmosphereburninga32-year-oldfather?好好看看看啊Whydont
38、youtakeagoodlookatthat.Goahead.Hmm?不看？No?我与ELM的唯一一联♥系♥就是往媒体发布消息MyonlyinvolvementwiththeE-L-Mistoforwardinformationtothemedia.我从没涉及到任何的违法行动mnot,andhaveneverbeen,involvedinanyillegalactivity.我知道你们没证据不能把握怎么样Iamawarethatyoucantholdmeherewithoutevidence.你们要么放了我要么给我请个律师So,eitherreleaseorgetm
39、ealawyer.这家伙知道该说什么Kidknewexactlywhattosay.是的我以前认为自己也比别人都聪明Yeah,well,Iusedtobesmarterthaneverybodyelse,too.是啊自大是政♥治♥纵火犯的显著特征Yeah,arrogancefitstheprofileofapoliticalarsonistperfectly.对但是我们的确没足够的证据扣押他Well,wedefinitelydonthaveenoughtoholdhim.那么我们就这么放了？So,werelettinghimgo?不是的我们把他严密监控起来No,we
40、,llputhimundertightsurveillance至少可以阻止他继续作案whichwillatleastkeephimfromlightinganotherfire.好吧我去杳查电♥话♥卡还有信♥用♥卡♥Allright.llcheckhisphonerecordsandcreditcards.尽量找出些线索Tryandconnectafewdots.我认为他的室友可能知道的更多Ithinktheroommateknowsmorethanwegotoutofhim.是啊尤其是听到jake说他坏话的时候YeahJf
41、hehearsJakebad-mouthedhim可能会告诉我们更多mightbealittlemoreforthcoming,too.你能查出是什么导致了治安亭的爆♥炸♥么So,wereyouabletodeterminewhatcausedtheboothtoexplode?就像我说的：倒风1.ikeIthought:backdraft.点火装置放在了椅垫下面Theigniterwasshovedunderaseatcushion电♥话♥亭里形成了很高的温度很少的氧气creatingahighlevelofheatinthebooth
42、.开门后就“崩1.imitedoxygen.Dooropensandboom.,我们这么说吧So,letmegetthisstraight.纵火者扔了一个燃♥烧♥瓶♥引发了一处火灾ThearsonistthrowsaMolotovcocktailtostartonefire为什么不它来引燃另外一处？butnottheother.燃♥烧♥瓶♥不好控制Molotovcocktailsaretricky.你想让一个建筑起火的话Imean,ifyouwantastructuretoburn一个简单的引信更好一些asim
43、plefuseignitionsourceiseasier.成功的机率更大一些Givesabettershotatsuccess.我现在在做一个关键因素分♥析♥Well,rightnowmworkingonaprinciplecomponentsanalysis来更好的确定火灾签名togiveusamoreaccuratearsonsignature.噢但是你只有7个因素怎么能行呢？WelLgreat,buthowdoyoudothatwithsevendatapoints?噢不Charles用到了超过600个因素Ohno,Charlesisconsideringu
44、singover600.600个？Sixhundred?你研究产热速度Well,yourelookingatrateofheat时间间隔天气是吧？timespanandweatheright?是的Yeah,thatsright.我又另外计算出热吸收率Right,somjustcalculatingyouknow,heatabsorption燃料燃烧率燃烧次序therateoffuelburn,andthetorchingindex.这有点超出我们消防部的Thatsalittlebeyondwhatwerecapableof能力了inthefiredepartment,lltellyouthat
45、.我能看看你们部门里CanIalsoseeallthearsonrecordsforL.A.County过去1年的纵火卷宗么？thatyouhaveaccesstofor,like,thepastyear?那可是几千件啊Thatsseveralthousandfires.嗯这个样本可是有点小啊Mm,that,saprettylimitedsample.那么这样吧Youknowwhat?把过去两年的都给我Makeitthepasttwoyears.好吧Okay.他是一个17岁的大二学生我调查了一下He,sa17-year-oldsophomore.AndIdidsomechecking.他在国际著名土木工程杂♥志♥上发表了一篇论文HepublishedapaperintheInternationalJournalofCivilEngineering.噢17岁不简单啊Oh,at17,thatsimpressive.是啊所以叫你和他谈谈Yeah.I,uh,wantyoutotalktohim希望你能找到
