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1、数字追凶(2005)Numb3rsSeason2Episode12Part4Nowwhatyoureseeingis一个行为序列分♥析♥abehavioralsequenceanalysis.是过去四年内Itsasequentialrepresentation枪击事件的序列表示ofshootingsoverthepastfouryears.这对我们有什么用？Andwhatdoesitgetus?这种动态图表Well,thiskindofdynamicgraph是一个很好的预测工具isanamazinglygoodpredictor我叫它枪击链ofwhatvebeen
2、calling枪击链？shootingchains.枪击链Shootingchains?枪击间的联♥系♥ShootingsthatareIinked-一个和另一个另一个和另外一个onetothenext,thentothenext.你是说报复袭击Youmeanretaliationshootings.我们已经知道这些了Wealreadyknowaboutallthose.我要说的是Well,whatmsayingis也许我们thatitmightbepossible可以据此找到tofollowtheseshootingchains初始者backtotheorigin
3、alshooter.没有证人Withoutwitnesses没有证词？andwithouttestimony?想象一个布满Visualizeatabletop多米诺骨牌的桌面coveredwithdominos.第一个倒下的多米诺Thefirstdominotofallis就是枪击链的开始thestartofashootingchain.枪击链可以很短Shootingchainscanbeshort,枪击链可以很长shootingchainscanbelong.有的枪击链引发了Someshootingchainsinitiate一些分支枪击链otherbranchingchains.现在我们看
4、到的就是Nowwerelookingatthese事后的枪击链shootingchainsafterthefact,所有多米诺都倒下后的afterallthedominoshavefallen.重建这些链条Andreconstructingthesechains会很难isgoingtobedifficult.但是有种方法Butthereisaway.运用分级网络图表Byusinghierarchicalnetworkgraphs和泊松集聚incombinationwithpoissonclumping,我们可以找到背景wecanworkourwaybackwards,找到开始的那块多米诺bac
5、ktotheoriginaldominos那个开始链条的多米诺thatstartedthechain.也就是说我们可以找到始发者Whichmeanswecouldidentifytheinciters-就是暴♥力♥倾向更大的分子gangmembersmostpronetoviolence.对Thatscorrect.如果我们把他们Andifwecouldsomehowremovethem从链条中拿出来fromtheloop.理论上theoretically,我们就可以阻止未来的袭击westopfutureshootings.看来你懂了就是这样Yougotit.Tha
6、tsit.哦很有趣的演讲Well,thatsaninterestingnotion.有趣Interesting,不过你好像不怎么感兴趣yetyoudontseeminterested.这里有个优先的问题Well,itsamatterofpriorities.这些枪击事件的18%18percentoftheseshootings杀死或伤害killedorinjured了周围的旁观者innocentbystanders.我想有的只有Ithinksomeofthosepeople10来岁weretenyearsold.35%的受害者35percentofthevictims只有16岁甚至更小were
7、16yearsoldoryounger.是的我知道Yeah,Iknow.我到过现场matthosecrimescenes,我也不喜欢andIdontlikeit.但是不管我们抓进去多少Butnomatterhowmanygangbangerswepullin,还是会出现更多morearegonnacometotaketheirplace.坦白说对大多数人来说Andfrankly,tomostpeople,阻止坏人stoppingbadguys杀坏人fromkillingbadguys不是我们的主要任务isntamajorpriority.耶再说一次Yeah,again,有些枪击someofth
8、eseshootings累及到无辜的群众involveinnocentpeople.好了CharIie嗨-好了Allright,charlie,hy.-thatsfine.对不起没什么Excuseme.Thatsfine.嗯Youknow,youlljust要是我觉得havetoforgiveme一个数学家不能ifIfeelthatcitywidegang阻止整个城市的帮派火拼violenceisntsomething的话请你包含thatonemathematiciancanstop.我要走了mgonnahavetorun.我还要给F一个小队作报告Briefthenextteam.我一会后再跟
9、你谈lltalktoyoulater,allright?Look,我不是来这里hey.heyj,mnothere跟人吵架的tostarttroublewithanyone.听着听着1.istenJisten,allright?我们集中在1.etsjustconcentraterhimes的案子上好吧onrhimesfornow,okay?你要理解人家他已经干了Yougottogivetheguyabreak.Hesbeenatthisfor,大概20多年了youknow,over20yearsnow.我们计划成立一个家庭Wewereplanningafamily.就在anton结束Itwasg
10、onnahappen卧底任务后rightafteranton,sundercover我很抱歉mreallysorry.有趣的是It,sfunny,youknow,他这几个月hehasntbeenhome都没回来过.allthatmuchtheselastfewmonths,so.现在他不在身边nothavinghimaround,我也没什么不适应的itreallyhasnthitmeyet.我来是想问你几个问题IwashopingIcouldaskyouacoupleofquestions.好的Sure.你丈夫最近几周有没有提及Hasyourhusbandmentionedbeing他怕某人a
11、fraidofanyoneoranything或者别的什么inthelastcoupleofweeks?anton害怕？Antonafraid?他就没这个基因Hedidnthavethegene.都是我在担心这个担心那个mtheonewhodidtheworrying.也就是说他从没提及Sohenevermentionedanyone.我们最近很少交谈Wedidnttalkverymuchlately.我说过的他不在1.ikeIsaid,hehasntbeenaround.我在读建筑学的最后一年minmylastyearofarchitectureschool,功课andtherejust很紧
12、neverseemedtobeenoughtime.我理解Iunderstand.但我知道他很兴奋ButIcouldtellhewasexcited.每当他快成功时Youknow,hedgetthatway他就很兴奋wheneverhewasgettingclose.我觉得他调查的人Ithinkthepeoplehewasafter开始信任他了werestartingtotrusthim,开始让他做决定了startingtolethimmakedecisions.我甚至Icanteven不能给他一个葬礼givehimthefuneralhedeserves.不能光荣的埋葬他Can,tevenb
13、uryhimwithhonor,因为他们还不想暴露他的身份becausetheystilldontwanttoblowhiscover.干♥你♥们这行很难Itsquiteajobyouhave.又是一个联邦调查局的任务Thisisanotherfbiproject,从资料上来看judgingfromthereferences是枪击犯罪tofirearmviolence.是的一个FBI探员被杀Yeah,well,anfbiagentwaskilled.我想找到杀人动机mtryingtoidentifypossiblemotives.通过鉴别所有这些联♥系♥Byidentifyingallthelinks和模式是么？andpatternsjsthatit?涉及的谋杀太多了Somanyofthesemurdersareconnected我没办法
