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1、WQRLDECONOMICFQRUMIncollaborationwithMcKinsey&CompanyTheGlobalCooperationBarometer2024INSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3AbouttheGlobalCooperationBarometer4Executivesummary6Introduction:Thestateofglobalcooperation7Fivepillarsofglobaloperation9Pillar1Tradeandcapital9Pillar2Inn
2、ovationandtechnology11Pillar3Climateandnaturalcapital13Pillar4Healthandwellness15Pillar5Peaceandsecurity17Conclusion:Towardsamoreoperativefuture19Appendix:Sourcesandmethodology20Contributors22Endnotes23DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinter
3、action.Thefindings,interpretationsandndusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollatorativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserv
4、ed.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January 2024TheGlobalCooperationBarometer2024ForewordBob Sternfels Global Managing Partner, McKinsey & CompanyBorgeBrendePresident,WorldEconomicForu
5、m Leaders in business and government will need to recognize where the contours of opposition end and those of alignment begin to navigate through the geopolitical turbulence and also to shape a more cooperative future.ThelaunchoftheGlobalCooperationBarometercomesatthestartofacrucialyear,amidaperiodo
6、fimmensegeopolitical,geo-economicandmarketuncertainty,whenthebedrockofwhatwasonceastableglobalsystemisshiftingunderfoot.Leadersinthepublicandprivatesectorswillneedtogainfluencyinthedynamicsdrivingthechangestonotjuststabilizetheirposition,buttobeequippedtoshapeabeneficialfuture.Itisnosecretthatthecur
7、rentglobalcontextisconcerning,asheightenedcompetitionandconflictappeartobereplacingcooperation.Theresultisthatnewpowerdynamics,changingdemographicrealitiesandbreakthroughfrontiertechnologiesareraisingthetemperatureonlong-simmeringdistrustratherthanfuelingopportunitiesforbenefit.Manybusinessesareresp
8、ondingtothesecomplicated-andoftenfraught-geopoliticaldevelopmentsbyshiftingoperationsandfacilitiesclosertohome.Yet,althoughtheworldisheadingtowardsadangerousdividebysomemeasures,elsewherethereareprospectsforandprogressoncooperativearrangements.Forinstance,forthefirsttimesincecountriesbeganmeetingtoa
9、ddressglobalwarming,anagreementwasreachedattheCOP28climatechangeconferenceontransitioningawayfromfossilfuels.Thatcooperationandconfrontationcancoexistshouldnotcomeasasurprise.Historyisrepletewithpartiesatoddswithoneanother,butstillseekingopportunitiesforcollaboration.Notably,attheheightoftheColdWar,
10、theUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnioncoordinatedoneradicatingsmallpoxandaddressingtheozonelayerintheatmosphere.Andmanycompaniesthatcompetewithoneanotheralsofindwaystocooperateinareasofmutualbenefit.Itiswithintoday,scomplexgeopoliticalcontextthatgaininganunderstandingoftheshapeofglobalcooperation-andcompe
11、tition-isvital.Leadersinbusinessandgovernmentwillneedtorecognizewherethecontoursofoppositionendandthoseofalignmentbegintonavigatethroughthegeopoliticalturbulenceandalsotoshapeamorecooperativefuture.ItisforthisreasonthattheWorldEconomicForumandMcKinsey&CompanydevelopedtheGlobalCooperationBarometer.Th
12、epurposeofthisanalysis,whichuses42indicatorstomeasurethestateofglobalcooperationbroadlyandalongfiveareas,istohelpstakeholdersinbusinessandgovernmentgainabetterunderstandingofthenatureofcooperationthatis,orisnot,takingplace.OurhopeisthattheGlobalCooperationBarometerwillofferstakeholdersatooltouseinsh
13、apingahealthier,moreprosperousandmoresustainableworldintheyearaheadandbeyond.AbouttheGlobalCooperationBarometerTheGlobalCooperationBarometerisstructuredalongfivedimensionsofglobalconnection:tradeandcapital,innovationandtechnology,climateandnaturalcapital,healthandwellness,andpeaceandsecurity.Thesefi
14、vepillarswerechosenbecauseoftheirimpactonglobaldevelopmentandtheirexplicitdependenceoncooperativeeffortsamongnationsandeconomies.Asaguidingelementintheanalysis,thebarometeridentifiedgoalsthatactorsareworkingtowardineachofthesethemes.Indoingso,thebarometerdrawsinspirationfromtheUnitedNationsSustainab
15、leDevelopmentGoalsandtheeffortsofotherglobalinstitutions.Toquantifychangeinthesepillars,42indicatorswereidentifiedthatresearchsuggestsareeithercooperativeactionsthatadvanceprogressonthegoalsofthepillarsordemonstrateabroadoutcomefromthoseactions.Cooperativeactionmetricsmeasureactionsthatprovideeviden
16、ceofoperation;theseindicators(suchasflowsofgoodsandexchangeofintellectualproperty)areevidenceofreal,manifestedcooperationanddonotinclude“onpaper”commitments.Otmemetrics(suchaslifeexpectancy)measuretheprogressofcooperation,buttypicallyareinfluencedbyadditionalfactorsbeyondjustcperation.Themetricsspan
17、countriesinallgeographiesandalllevelsofdevelopment.Thebarometerlooksbackatthelast11years,from2012through2022toestablishatrendlineofcooperation.Itindexesdatato2020forthefollowingreason:astheCOVID-19pandemictookhold,itacceleratedmanytrendsexistinginbusinessandsocietyandsetinmotionmanynewones.Indexingt
18、hetimeseriesto2020allowsustoseewhattrendswereinplacebeforethepandemic,andthetrendsthatemergedfromit(withoutinfluencingordistortingthetrendsthemselves).Notethatsomemetricshavebeeninvertedsuchthatanyincreaserepresentsapositivedevelopment.ThemethodologyusedfortheGlobalCooperationBarometerisoutlinedbelo
19、w.DetailsonsourcingofindividualmetricsareintheAppendix.TheGlobalCooperationBarometers5pillarsofglobalcooperationTradeandcapitalPromoteglobaldevelopmentandresilienceFocusofanalysisisoni)developmentandresilientoutcomes;throughii)presenceofglobaleconomicflowsthatpromotelikelyopportunitiesfortheseoutcom
20、esInnovationandtechnologyAccelerateinnovationandbeneficialtechnologicalprogressFocusofanalysisisoni)globalprogressininnovationandtechnology:throughii)presenceoftheglobalsharingofunderlyingknowledgethatcontributestotheseoutcomesbyfosteringcollaborationacrossglobaltalentClimateandnaturalcapitalSupport
21、theresolutionofclimateandnaturalcapitalchallengesFocusofanalysisisoni)loweringofemissions,preservationofnaturalcapital,andpreparednessforlikelyimpactofclimatechange;throughii)sharedglobalgoals/COmmitmentSthatincreasehumanitysabilitytolimitandadapttothedynamicsofachangingclimateHealthandwellnessEnabl
22、eglobalpopulationtoleadlongerandbetterlivesFocusofanalysisisoni)impactoftheburdenofdiseaseondurationandqualityoflife;throughii)commitmenttoglobalpublichealthstandardsandcollaborationthroughflowsofgoods,R&D/IPandhealthfinancingPeaceandsecurityPreventandresolveconflictsFocusofanalysisisoni)preventiono
23、fdeathandlong-termnegativeimplicationsofconflict;throughii)commitmenttomultilateralpeacekeepingoperationsandinternationalstabilizationeffortsDatacoverage1. GeographyAcrossallmetrics,thebarometeraimstocollectglobaldata.Inmostcases,anaggregateglobalweightedaverageisavailable.Whenaglobalweightedaverage
24、isnotavailable,themostcomprehensivedataisused(e.g.OECDcountries,orasamplesetofcountrieswheredataisavailableforallyears).2. YearsWhilethebarometermeasurescperationfrom2012through2022,afewmetricsdonothavedataforallyears.Allmetricshave2020datatoensuretheindexedtrendlinecanbecalculated.IndexcalculationT
25、oevaluateglobalcooperationfairlyandcomparetrendlinesoftheactionandoutcomemetricsacrossthefivepillars,theglobalcooperationbarometerappliesthefollowingmethodology:1. IndexedtrendlinesDatafrom2020servesasthebaseyeartodevelopcomparabletrendlines,withallvaluesin2020equalto1(2020=1).Thisbase-yearstandardi
26、zationisthebasisofthescorecalculation,enablingauniformreferencepointforallmetricsandcomparability,despitedifferentunitsanddatasets.2. DatanormalizationWherepossible,metricsarenormalizedtoensurethattrendlinescanbeassessedindependentlyoftheeffectsofeconomicgrowthorpopulationchanges.Forexample,trade,ca
27、pital,andotherfinancialflowsarenormalizedtoglobalGDP,whilemigrationmetricsarenormalizedtoglobalpopulationlevels.3. WeightingEachpillarcomprisestwoindices:anactionindexandanoutcomeindex.Toarriveateach,themetricswithinareweightedequally(i.e.theactionindexisasimpleaverageofmetricsmeasuringcooperativeac
28、tions).Theoverallindexforapillariscalculatedasanaverageoftheactionandoutcomemetrics.Aggregateindicesacrosspillarsarealsocalculatedasasimpleaverageofpillarindices(i.e.equalweightingacrosspillars).ExecutivesummaryCooperationismultifacetedandcancoexistwithcompetition.Theworldisfacingcomplexchallenges.A
29、ddressingthemdemandscooperationatthegloballevel.Todayseconomyisinafragilestate,withgrowthexpectedtobewellbelowthehistoricalaverage,aordingtotheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).Revitalizingtradewillbecrucialtostrengtheningtheeconomicoutlookaheadandboostinglivelihoods.However,theIMFhasraisedalarmsaboutt
30、hepossibilityofglobalfragmentation,whichcouldshaveoff7%ofglobalGDP.2Similarly,technologicalinnovationiskeytoboostingcurrentlysluggishproductivitygrowth,withgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI)holdingextraordinarypotential-$2.6trillionto$4.4trillioninadditionalannualvalueacrossindustries,asestimatedb
31、ytheMcKinseyGlobalInstitute.3Theonlywaytounlockthisbenefitandmanageundesirableconsequencesisthroughglobalcoordination.Climatechangerequiresgovernmentsandbusinessestoworktogethertoreachnetzero,adapttoshiftsinclimatealreadylockedinbypreviousemissions,anddoallofthisinawaythatsupportseconomicdevelopment
32、acrosstheglobe.Justlikethehealthoftheplanet,thehealthofpeoplerequiresoperationgloballybetweengovernmentsandbusinesses.Long-termadvancementsinhealthandimmediateresponsestoacutecriseslikepandemicsrequirepartiesaroundtheworldtoworktogether.Yet,intermsofaddressingthehealthandwell-beingofpeopleandtheplan
33、et,theworldappearsoffcourse,withjust15%oftheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsontrack.4Yet,asoperationisbeminganimperative,theworldorderappearstobefragmenting.Indeed,theglobalsecuritylandscape-oncealargelycooperativedomaininthepost-ColdWarera-isdeteriorating,withtheUnitedNationsnotingatthestartof2023thatth
34、eworldwaswitnessingthehighestnumberofviolentconflictssinceWorldWarIl.5TheGlobalCooperationBarometer2024presentsanapproachtomeasurethecurrentstateofglobalcooperation.Indoingso,thereportismeanttoserveasatoolforleaderstobetterunderstandthentorsofcooperationbroadlyandalongfivepillars-tradeandcapitalflow
35、s,innovationandtechnology,climateandnaturalcapital,healthandwellness,andpeaceandsecurity.Aftertrendingpositivelyformuchofthepastdecade,globalcooperationrisksmovingintoreverse.Thestoryvariesbypillar:-Tradeandcapital:tradeandcapitalcperationgrewthroughthepandemicdisruption,butslowedin2023;geopolitical
36、tensionsandnewrestrictionsmakethefuturepathunclear.-Innovationandtechnology:flowsofdata,IPandinternationalstudentspoweredanincreaseincooperationuntil2020,butnewquestionshavearisenabouthowtoworktogethertoharnessopportunities.- Climateandnaturalcapital:thelevelofcooperationforclimateandnaturalcapitalh
37、asbeenrisingsteadily,dueinlargemeasuretoanincreaseincommitments,butemissionsalsocontinuetorise.- Healthandwellness:cooperationinhealthandwellnessroseswiftlyinresponsetothepandemic,butappearstobesettlingbacktohistoricalpatterns.- Peaceandsecurity:cooperationinpeaceandsecurityhasdeclinedsince2016andpl
38、ummetedrecently.Becauseitisunlikelythatthecurrentgeopoliticalclimatewillchangeandcompetitionandconfrontationwillsooncool,thebarometersuggeststhatleadersinbusinessandgovernmentshouldreimaginecooperation.Thebarometershowsthatcooperationismultifaceted,andelementsofcooperationcancoexistwithelementsofriv
39、alry.Leaderscanpractice,*cpetitio,-balancingcooperationandmpetition-toadvancesharedinterestsinspecificareas,despitelackofalignmentelsewhere.Further,leaderscanusetheseinstancesofcooperationtobuildmutualtrust,whichinturncouldstrengthencooperationinotherareas.Fundamentally,companiesandcountriesshouldre
40、memberthatcooperationbreedsstrengthandresilience.Thosethatthoughtfullyandconstructivelymanagerelationshipsbouncebackbetterfromchallengesandachieveobjectives.6IntroductionThestateofglobalcooperationMeasuringcooperationisacriticalstepinidentifyingwaystostrengtheningit.B Overall, the barometer indicate
41、s that after trending positively for much of the past decade, global cooperation has been mildly reversing (down 2%) since 2020.Theworldisfacingaplethoraofchallengesthatrequireglobalcooperationtosolve.Globaltemperaturesshatteredprevioushighsandlastyearwasthehottestonrecord.7And,over114millionpeopleh
42、avebeenforciblydisplacedworldwide-thehighestlevelever.0Atthesametime,ongoingthreatsofapandemicandtherisksofnew,unregulatedtechnologieswarrantconcern.Cperationisnotonlynecessaryasareactivemechanismtoaddressthreateningglobaldevelopments,butitisalsoneededtounlocknewopportunities.Indeed,generativeAlhast
43、hepotentialtocontributeasmuchas$2.6trillionto$4.4trilliontotheglobaleconomy,butrequiressubstantialcoordinationacrosstheglobalesystemtomitigaterisksandensurebenefitsaresharedwidely.9Recenthistoryhasshownthatglobalcooperationcandeliverprofoundbenefits.Duringthefirstquarter-centuryaftertheendoftheColdW
44、ar-aperiodlargelyseenasahighpointforglobaloperation-expandedtradeliftedglobalincomesandasaresult,thenumberofpeoplelivinginextremepovertywascutinhalf.10InstancesoftheinternationalcommunityreflexivelycomingtogetherduringthisperiodaremostevidentthroughsecuritycoordinationintheaftermathoftheSeptember11,
45、2001attacks,financialcoordinationinthewakeoftheglobalfinancialcrisisin2008,whichincludedupgradingtheG20,andglobalcommitmentstoaddressthegrowingdangerofclimatechangethroughthe2015signingoftheParisClimateAgreement.Bymanyaccounts,thegeopoliticaldialturnedfromcooperationtocompetitioninthemid-201Os,asnat
46、ionalistforcesincreasedinmanycountriesandprotectionistpoliciesrose.11ThedialthenturnedfurtherawayfromcooperationasconflictbrokeoutinEurope,AfricaandtheMiddleEastinrecentyears,withtheUNwarninginearly2023thattheworldwaswitnessingthehighestlevelofviolentconflictsinceWorldWarIl.12Despitethechallengingco
47、ntext,thestoryaboutglobalcooperationisnotblackandwhite.Countriesandcompaniescancompetewhilealsocooperating.Competition,andevenconfrontation,canspikeinoneareawhilecooperationcandeepeninothers.Inanotableexample,in2022,amidheightenedtensionsbetweentheUnitedStatesandChina,asclimatenegotiationsbetweenbot
48、hcountriesweresuspendedandtalkofdecouplingdominatedairwaves,bilateraltradereachedrecordlevels.13Tohelpdevelopabetterunderstandingofthecurrentstateofglobalcooperation,thisreportpresentstheGlobalCooperationBarometer-atoolthatexaminescooperationinfivepillars:tradeandcapital,innovationandtechnology,climateandnaturalcapital,healthandwellness,andpeaceandsecurity.Thefivepillarswerechosenbecause,giventheinterconnectednatureoftheworld,cooperationatthegloballevelisnecessarytoseeadvancementsineachoftheseareas.Overall,t
