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1、IATAQuarterlyAirTransportChartbookIATASustainability&EconomicsQ42023TableofContentsTableofContents2Glossary.3TableofCharts4I. TheBusinessCycle6II. EnergyTransition8ConventionalAviationFuel8SustainableAviationFuel8III. PassengerandCargoTraffic10PassengerTraffic10AirConnectivity12CargoTraffic14IV. Air
2、lineFinancialPerformance18Revenue18Expenses18Capitalmarkets18V. RegionalOutlook20Africa20Americas22AsiaPacific24Europe26MiddleEast28VI. Appendix30Notetoreaders:TheAirlineFinanciaIPerformancesectionisincludedintheQuarterIyAirTransportChartbookforQ2andQ4ofeachyear.ItisexcludedfromtheQ1andQ3reportsasth
3、eairlinefinancialperformancereviewandforecastarereleasedalongsidetheJuneandDecemberGlobalOutlookreports,respectively.IATAGlossaryACTKs-AvailableCargoTonne-KilometersASKs-AvailableSeat-KilometersATJ-Alcohol-to-JetATKs-AvailableTonne-KilometersBB1.-BarreIB1.F-Breakeven1.oadFactorC1.F-Cargo1.oadFactorC
4、ORSIA-carbonoffsettingandreductionschemeforinternationalaviationCTKs-CargoTonne-KilometersEBIT-EarningsbeforeinterestandtaxesFT-Fischer-TropschGDP-GrossDomesticProductHEFA-Hydro-processedEstersandFatty例ids1.F-1.oadFactorMoM-Month-on-monthMoUs-MemorandaOfunderstandingOPEC-OrganizationofthePetroleumEx
5、portingCountriesO-D-Origin-DestinationP1.F-Passenger1.oadFactorPMI-PurchasingManagersIndexPt1.-Power-to-1.iquidPPP-Purchasingpowerparityppt-PercentagepointsRPKs-RevenuePassenger-KilometersRTKs-RevenueTonne-KilometersSA-SeasonallyadjustedSAF-SustainableAviationFuelQoQ-Quarter-on-quarterUSD-UnitedStat
6、esDollarYoY-Year-on-yearTableofChartsChart1:Globalgrossdomesticproduct(constantUSD),annual%change7Chart2:ContributionfromlargeeconomiestoworldGDPgrowthin%7Chart3:Unemployment,totalbycountrygroup,%oftotallaborforce7Chart4:Inflationinmajoreconomiesin%7Chart5:Globaleconomicpolicyuncertaintyindex7Chart6
7、:RealEffectiveExchangeRateIndex,Broad7Chart7:Jetfuelprice,USDZbbI9Chart8:Jetfuelcrackagainstcrudeoil,USD/bbl9Chart9:Quarterlyjetfuelpricesin2023byregion,USD/bbl9Chart10:NumberofSAFofftakeagreements,asofDec20239Chart11:Cumulativerenewablefuelcapacityinmilliontonnes9Chart12:Totalrenewablefuelcapacityb
8、y2029,%sharebypathway9Chart13:IndustrymonthlyRPKsinbillions11Chart14:IndustrymonthlyASKsinbillions11Chart15:Passengerloadfactor,%shareofASK11Chart16:DomesticRPKsbycountrymarket,%changeversusthesamequarterin201911Chart17:InternationalRPKsbyairlineregionofregistration,%shareofthesameperiodin201911Char
9、t18:InternationalRPKsbycabinclass,%changevsthesameperiodin2019(Q4)11Chart19:IATAGlobalAirConnectivityIndex,Jan2020-Dec202313Chart20:Globalairportpairs,Jan2020-Dec202313Chart21:RecoveryininternationalconnectivitybyregionthroughDec202313Chart22:IndustryquarterlyCTKsinbillions16Chart23:InternationalCTK
10、growthbyairlineregionofregistration,annual%change16Chart24:IndustryquarterlyACTKsinbillions16Chart25:Year-to-datequarterlyindustryACTKsinbillions16Chart26:GrowthofinternationalACTKsbytype,annual%change16Chart27:InternationalACTKsbytypeinbillions16Chart28:Cargoloadfactorsinmajorrouteareas,%shareofACT
11、Ks17Chart29:GlobalmanufacturingPMIsandindustryCTKgrowth,annual%change17Chart30:Growthininventory-tosalesratio(invertedontheaxis)andindustryCTKs,annual%change17Chart31:GrowthinglobalgoodstradeandindustryCTKs,annual%change17Chart32:AirlineindustrynetprofitandEBITmargin19Chart33:Regionalairlinesprofita
12、bility,USDbillion19Chart34:Globalairlinesrevenue,USDbillion19Chart35:GlobalAirlinesPriceReturnIndexvsMSCIACWI,Ded9=10019Chart36:RelativeRegionalAirlinePriceIndexperformance,Jan23=10019Chart37:GrowthinRPKsbyairlineregionofregistration,Africa21Chart38:GrowthininternationalRPKsbyairlineregionofregistra
13、tion,Africa21Chart39:GrowthinCTKsbyairlineregionofregistration,Africa21Chart40:Ticketsalesbyregion(7-daymovingaverage),Africa21Chart41:Passengertraffic(O-D)growthbycountryinQ42023,Africa21Chart42:Aircraftdeliveriesin2015-2024(scheduled),Africa21Chart43:GrowthinRPKsbyairlineregionofregistration,Ameri
14、cas23Chart44:GrowthininternationalRPKsbyairlineregionofregistration,Americas23Chart45:GrowthinCTKsbyairlineregionofregistration,Americas23Chart46:Ticketsalesbyregion(7-daymovingaverage),Americas23Chart47:Passengertraffic(O-D)growthbycountryinQ42023,Americas23Chart48:Aircraftdeliveriesin2015-2024(sch
15、eduled),Americas23Chart49:GrowthinRPKsbyairlineregionofregistration,AsiaPacific25Chart50:GrowthininternationalRPKsbyairlineregionofregistration,AsiaPacific25Chart51:GrowthinCTKsbyairlineregionofregistration,AsiaPacific25Chart52:Ticketsalesbyregion(7-daymovingaverage),AsiaPacific25苦NIATAChart53:Passe
16、ngertraffic(O-D)growthbycountryinQ42023,AsiaPacific25Chart54:Aircraftdeliveriesin2015-2024(scheduled),AsiaPacific25Chart55:GrowthinRPKsbyairlineregionofregistration,Europe27Chart56:GrowthininternationalRPKsbyairlineregionofregistration,Europe27Chart57:GrowthinCTKsbyairlineregionofregistration,Europe
17、27Chart58:Ticketsalesbyregion(7-daymovingaverage),Europe27Chart59:Passengertraffic(O-D)growthbycountryinQ42023,Europe27Chart60:Aircraftdeliveriesin2015-2024(scheduled),Europe27Chart61:GrowthinRPKsbyairlineregionofregistration,MiddleEast29Chart62:GrowthininternationalRPKsbyairlineregionofregistration
18、,MiddleEast29Chart63:GrowthinCTKsbyairlineregionofregistration,MiddleEast29Chart64:Ticketsalesbyregion(7-daymovingaverage),MiddleEast29Chart65:Passengertraffic(O-D)growthbycountryinQ42023,MiddleEast29Chart66:Aircraftdeliveriesin2015-2024(scheduled),MiddleEast29QuarterlyChartbockQ42023I. TheBusinessC
19、ycle GlobalGDPgrowthstoodat3.1%in2023andislikelytoremaininthisvicinityalsothisyearandnext.Thisisinlinewiththelong-termaveragegrowthrate,anditisaremarkableoutperformancecomparedtotherecessionforecaststhatdominatedthebusinesscycleconversationlastyear(Chart1).TheUnitedStates(US)inparticularbeatexpectat
20、ionsin2023,growingby2.5%(annualleveloverfull-year2022).Thiswasanaccelerationfromthe1.9%recordedin2022onthesamebasis.Indiasgrowthratealsoexceededexpectationsin2023andrecordedoneofthehighestgrowthratesamonglargereconomies.At6.3%,IndiasurpassedChinas5%,ashasbeenthecasesince2014.IndiasshareofglobalGDP(o
21、napurchasingpowerparitybasisPurchasingpowerparity(PPP)isabettergaugeforcomparingcountriesperformancethancurrentUSDwhichObviouslyreflectsexchangeratefluctuationstoagreaterextent.PPPComparisonsyieldgreaterWeightsforemergingeconomiesintermsofsharesofglobalGDPIhancurrentUSD.)isestimatedat7.75%in2024byth
22、eIMF.ThisisofcoursemuchSmallerthanthe19%shareofChinaorthe15.2%oftheUSeconomyonthisbasis.Nevertheless,ifIndiacontinuestogrowatthispace,itsshareintheglobaleconomyW川increaserapidly,anditscontributiontoglobalGDPgrowthwillbecomeevermoreimportant(Chart2)ContributionstoworldGDPgrowtharecalculatedbymultiply
23、ingacountrysGDPgrowthratebyitsShareintheglobaleconomy.1.ocalrecessionsdidoccurthoughin2023,itmustbesaid,affectingGermanyandSomeEasternEuropeancountries,nottomentionArgentinaorSudan,amongothers. Amajorfactorthathasprotectedtheglobaleconomyagainstrecessionsistheunusuallylowunemploymentratesseenaroundt
24、heworld(Chart3).TheUSstunnedtheworldwithamonthlyjobcreationinJanuary2024of353,000,morethantwicetheanticipatednumber.Theunemploymentratestoodat3.7%andhasbeenatorbelow4%sinceDecember2021.Apossiblehintofforthcomingslowdowninlaborgrowthwasthesmalldeclineintheaverageworkweekandinovertime.TheEUandtheeuroa
25、reaunemploymentratesarealsoathistoriclows,at5.9%and6.4%respectivelyinDecember2023.Chinareported5.2%unemploymentin2023thoughyouthunemploymentismuchhigher,at14.9%,usinganewmethodology.Indiasjoblessratewas6.6%inJanuary2024,downfrom8.7%inDecember2023. Withsuchtightlabormarkets,itisalmostsurprisingthatin
26、flationhaseasedasmuchasithas.Nevertheless,withrespecttocentralbanksmostlytargeting2%inflationrates,majoreconomiesarestillsomedistanceaway(Chart4).IntheUS1consumerpriceinflation(CPI)was3.1%year-on-year(YoY)inJanuary2024.While2023wascharacterizedbyrecessionfears,2024seemstobeimbuedwithhopesforimminent
27、interestratecuts.Suchhopesarelikelytobedashedaslongaslabormarketsremainthistightandinflationthishigh. Theyearhasthusgloballystartedoffonaratherpositivenote,andthegreatestsourceofturbulencemightcomefromtherecord-breakingnumberofelectionsthatwillbeheldaroundtheworldthisyear.Amajorityoftheworldpopulati
28、on,some4.2billionpersons,willvotethisyear,inaround70countries.Withpolarizationrunninghigh,electionresultscangiverisetostarklydifferentpolicies.MuchwillhingeontheUSelectionsinNovember2024,butotherimportantelectionsincludeIndiasbetweenAprilandMay,andtheEuropeansvotingfortheirEuropeanUnionrepresentativ
29、esinJune.Fornow,theglobaleconomicpolicyuncertaintyindexiscertainlybelowitsCovid-19-relatedpeakbutat254itisalsowellaboveitsmorenormallevelascanbeseeninChart5. InterestratecutexpectationswilllikelyweighontheUSdollarsvalueagainstothercurrencies,unlesselectionsandothersourcesofgeopoliticalstressreignite
30、itssafe-havenstatus.Ifsuchrisksarecontained,2024couldbeayearofrelativeUSdollarstabilityafteritsstrongrunsince2021,whichwouldarguablybeaboonfortheglobaleconomyandforallsettlingbillsanddebtsinthiscurrency(Chart6).Chart1:Globalgrossdomesticproduct(constantUSD),annual%changeChart2:Conlributionfromlargee
31、conomiestoworldGDPgrowthin%Source:IMrWortdEconomicOilook10ChinaIndiaRestofIhoWorldUnitedStatesEuroAreaWoddGDPGrowthRateSource:IATASustainability4Economics,basedondataromlFWortdEconomicOutlook.Chart3:Unemployment,totalbyCountrygroup,%oftotallaborforceChart5:GlobaleconomicpolicyuncertaintyindexChart6:
32、ReaiEffectiwExchangeRateIndex,BroadSource:BISQuarterlyChartbockQ42023TAII. EnergyTransitionConventionalAviationFuel Amidthecontinuedrecoveryinairtravel,jetfueldemandremainedhighin2023,withtheglobalaveragepriceconsistentlyaboveUSD100perbarrelduringthefourthquarterChart7).Geopoliticaltensions,suchasth
33、ewarintheMddIeEast,couldimpedesupply,whileOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC),sproductioncurbsputfurtherupwardpressureontheprice.Coupledwithlimitedrefiningcapacity,thejetfuelcrackspreadstayedaroundUSD30perbarrelinQ4.Thisiswellabovepre-pandemiclevels,whenthecrackspreadwasboundedbetween
34、USD9-22perbarreloverathree-yearrangefrom2017-2019(Chart8). SupplyconstraintshavebeenexacerbatedbyattacksontankersintheRedSea,andthishasgeneratedregionaldisparitiesinthejetfuelprice(Chart9),WithEuroperelyingsignificantlyonjetfuelimportsfromEastofSuez(mainlyIndiaandtheArabGulf),itspricelevelalmostcaug
35、htupwiththeAmericasinQ4.Thelatterregionhasseencomparativelyhighpricesasaresultofthecombinationofdisruptedlocalproductionandstrongairtraveldemand.Inthemeantime,asluggishrecoveryindemandforinternationalairtravelinChinaputalidontheregionaljetfuelpriceinAsia,whererefinedproductsarecomparablywellsupplied
36、.SustainableAviationFuel Overthecourseofthepasttwoyears,theairlineindustryhassignedatotalof75offtakeagreements(theseareagreementsbetweenaSustainabIeAviationFuel(SAF)producerandanairlinetopurchaseaquantityoftheproducersfutureSAFproduction),Thisincludes53bindingand22non-bindingagreements,thelatterofwh
37、ichcoversbothmemorandaofunderstanding(MoUs)andlettersofintent(Chart10). Outofthetotal75SAFofftakeagreements,64arebasedonbio-SAFsfromfourprimarypathways:Hydro-processedEstersandFattyAcids(HEFA),HEFAGo-Processing,SyngasFischer-Tropsch(Syngas-FT),andAlcohol-to-Jet(AtJ).Theremainingelevenagreementsareas
38、sociatedwithe-fuelSAF1derivedfromvariousPower-to-1.iqid(Pt1.)projects.HEFAandHEFAGo-ProcessingarethemostmatureandcommerciallyviableSAFtechnologiescurrentlyinuse,andtheyaccountforthemajorityofSAFofftakeagreements. Over160renewablefuelprojectsspanningmorethan110producersin37countrieshavebeenannouncedt
39、odate,whichmadevariouslevelsofCommitmenttoincludingSAFintheirproductslate.Theestimatedglobalrenewablefuelcapacityby2029hasrisenfromaprojected59milliontonnesinQ3to64milliontonnesinQ42023(Chart11).Thereisathreetofive-yearlagbetweenprojectannouncementandcommercialization,andfurthercapacityannouncements
40、for2027andbeyondcanbeexpected. In2029,theHEFApathwayisexpectedtocontributeover82%oftotalSAFproduction,followedbyAtJataround8%(Chart12).Afurther4.2%willIikelycomefromHEFACo-ProcessingaccordingtothelatestQ4projections,withtheremainderfromtheotherpathways. Thedevelopmentofbiorefiningfacilitiesisbeingac
41、celeratedbythegrowingtrendoffossilrefineriesbeingretrofitted(e.g.,Phillips66announcedtheretrofittingoftheirRodeoplantinSanFrancisco)ordecommissionedandsoldinthesecond-handmarket.Theadvantagewiththeseoptionsisthelowercapitalintensitycomparedtobuildinganewplantfromscratch.Whilemanynewbiorefiningfacili
42、tieswillberequiredtoachievedecarbonizationinaviation,theurgentscalingupofproductioncapacitycanbegreatlyhelpedbyprioritizingtheretrofittingofoldfossilrefineriesintobiofuelproductionfacilities.Chart7:Jetfuelprice,USBbbICrackSpreadDatedBremw11rE4学耳NPOz,Sc48uo82乌oworOg-Jd02UB6TU。6E11r6Jd461.U4Sources:S&
43、PGobalCommodityInsightsSAPGIObarChart10:NumberofSfiFofftakeagreements,asofDec2023Chart9:QuarterlyJetfuelpricesin2023byregion,USDbbINumberofagreementsof9themonthRiCumuialivenumberofagreements:JM三Ihi加ufisnuii20232022Source:IATASustainabilityandEconomicsChart11:CumulativerenewablefuelCapadtyinmiIKonton
44、nesHEFA82.1%Soue:IATASustainabihtyandEconomicsIII. PassengerandCargoTrafficPassengerTraffic Inthefourthquarterof2023,theaviationsectorcontinuedtorecoverwhilenavigatingeconomicandgeopoliticaltensions. Globalairpassengertrafficexperiencedasignificantupswingof28.6%year-on-year(YoY)inthefinalquarterof20
45、23,asmeasuredbyRevenuePassengerKilometers(RPKs,Chart13).Airlinesexpandedtheirseatofferingsby27.1%comparedtothepreviousyeartomeettherisingdemand(Chart14).Thisimpressiverecoverynotwithstanding,bothpassengernumbersandseatavailabilitydidnotquitereachthelevelsobservedinthelastquarterof2019. Thegrowthinpa
46、ssengerdemandhadaslightedgeovertheincreaseinflightcapacity,whichresultedinapassengerloadfactor(P1.F)ofanimpressive82.4%onaverage.Thisfigureisup1.0and0.7percentagepoints(ppt)respectivelycomparedto2022and2019andisthehighestfourthquarterP1.Frecordedsince2010(Chart15).Thistrendofheightenedloadfactorswas
47、observedacrossregions,withtheexceptionofAfricaandNorthAmerica.Specifically,Africancarriersreportedaseatoccupancyrateof72.0%,0.9pptabovethe2019figuresthough3.8pptbelowtheQ42022figurewhichmarkedadecadepeak.NorthAmericasloadfactorwas83.4%andwhileinlinewithitspre-pandemicaverage,itwas1.0pptlowerthanin20
48、22. Approximately40%ofallairtravel,nsideringboththedistanceandthevolumeoftravelers,occurswithindomesticmarkets.Inthefourthquarter,domesticairtrafficcontinuedtogrowYoY,andstood4.4%overpre-pandemiclevelsonaverage,withmixedperformancesbetweencountries(Chart16).Growthwasmainlyledbythethreelargestmarkets,namely
