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1、第18章 失业与通货膨胀,Chapter 18 Unemployment and Inflation,Contents,失业通货膨胀失业与通胀,基本问题起因、影响与对策,定义衡量分类,第一节 失业,Unemployment,一、失业的相关概念（The related conception on Unemployment）,充分就业摩擦失业自愿失业非自愿失业,其它观点（Other Viewpoints),结构性失业周期性失业自然失业率,失业率的统计,美国劳工统计局（BLS）抽样调查,奥肯定律(Okuns Laws),说明产出变化与失业率变化间关系的一条经验定律。中国“奥肯定律悖论”,The US
2、 Misery Index,Misery Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate,第二节 通货膨胀,The Inflation,一、通货膨胀的定义(Definition ),物价派货币派,凯恩斯主义与货币主义,米尔顿弗里德曼（1912-2006）,创立了货币主义理论，提出了永久性收入假说,凯恩斯（1883-1946）,物价派OR货币派？,通货紧缩（Deflation),通货紧缩：物价水平的持续下降，伴随着货币供给量的减少和经济的衰退。,二、通货膨胀的衡量（Measurement）,消费价格指数CPI（The consumer price index
3、 )生产者价格指数PPI（The producer price index）GDP折算指数(GDP deflator),How the CPI is Calculated？,Fix the Basket；Find the Prices: Compute the Baskets Cost: Choose a Base Year and Compute the Index: Compute the inflation rate:,The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI each month.,Whats in the CPIs Basket?,
4、40%,16%,17%,6%,5%,6%,5%,5%,Two Measures of Inflation,三、分类,A、通货膨胀程度1）爬行的通货膨胀(Creeping inflation)2）温和的通货膨胀(Mild inflation )3）奔腾的通货膨胀(Galloping inflation)4）超级通货膨胀(Hyper inflation),A Case: 1985年的玻利维亚,当通胀率为116000%时，价格每小时都在变化3瓶阿司匹林的钱，在3年前可以买一辆豪华丰田轿车自动售货机以35000比索售出一块巧克力，五分钟后，另一块上升为50000比索1000比索的印刷费超出其所购买商品
5、价格工人工资年上涨1500%，工人还在罢工出行宁愿坐出租车，而不坐公共汽车,B、起因,1)需求拉动通货膨胀（Demand-pull inflation ）2)成本推动通货膨胀（Cost-push inflation）3)结构性通货膨胀（Structural inflation）,四、通货膨胀的起因、影响及对策,The Source and Effect of Inflation and The Anti-Inflation policy,通货膨胀的起因（ The Source of Inflation ）,A、需求拉动的通货膨胀（Demand-pull Inflation ）AD变大，曲线向右
6、上方移动,y,P,AS,AD3,AD4,AD1,AD2,fig,需求拉动的通货膨胀,O,Price level,National output,AS,AD1,P1,Q1,fig,O,Price level,National output,AS,AD1,P1,Q1,AD2,需求拉动的通货膨胀,fig,O,Price level,National output,AS,AD1,P1,Q1,AD2,P2,需求拉动的通货膨胀,B、成本推动的通货膨胀（Cost-Push Inflation ）,工资推动型通货膨胀利润推动型通货膨胀工资价格螺旋,y,P,AS1,AS2,AD,fig,成本推动通货膨胀,O,P
7、rice level,National output,AS1,AD,P1,Q1,fig,O,Price level,National output,AS1,AD,P1,Q1,AS2,成本推动通货膨胀,fig,O,Price level,National output,AS1,AD,P1,Q1,AS2,P2,成本推动通货膨胀,fig,The interaction of demand-pull and cost-push inflation,O,Price level,National output,AS1,AD1,P1,fig,O,Price level,National output,AS1
8、,AD1,P1,AS2,AD2,The interaction of demand-pull and cost-push inflation,fig,O,Price level,National output,AS1,AD1,P1,AD2,P2,AS3,AD3,AS2,The interaction of demand-pull and cost-push inflation,fig,Initial demand-pull inflation,O,National output,Price level,AS short run,AD,P0,a,fig,O,National output,Pri
9、ce level,AS,AD,P0,AD1,a,Initial demand-pull inflation,fig,O,National output,Price level,AS,AD,P0,AD1,P1,a,b,AD2,Initial demand-pull inflation,fig,O,National output,Price level,AS,AD,P0,AD1,P1,a,b,AD2,c,AS1,P2,Initial demand-pull inflation,fig,O,National output,Price level,AS,AD,P0,AD1,P1,a,b,AD2,c,A
10、S1,d,P2,P3,AD3,Initial demand-pull inflation,fig,O,National output,Price level,AS,AD,P0,AD1,P1,a,b,AD2,c,AS1,d,P2,P3,AD3,P4,e,AS2,Initial demand-pull inflation,fig,O,National output,Price level,AS,AD,P0,AD1,P1,a,b,AD2,c,AS1,d,P2,P3,AD3,P4,e,AD4,AS2,f,P5,Initial demand-pull inflation,C、结构性通货膨胀（Struct
11、ural Inflation）,y,P,AD1,AD2,AS1,AS2,不同部门间工资增长率相互看齐,通货膨胀的影响(Impact),有利于利润收入者，不利于工资收入者（工资粘性）有利于债务人，不利于债权人（利率契约性）有利于政府，不利于公众（累进税与固定税率情况下，“通货膨胀税”）,反通货膨胀的政策（The Anti-Inflation Policy）,A、Deflation Policy 紧缩政策（解决需求拉动的通货膨胀）B、Income Policy 收入政策（解决成本推进的通货膨胀）C、Structural Policy 结构政策（解决结构性通货膨胀）,第三节 失业与通货膨胀,Unemployment and Inflation痛苦指数misery index菲利浦斯曲线( The Phillips Curves),A、早期的菲利浦斯曲线（Early Phillips Curves ）,（AWPhillips 1914-1975）,失业率,通货膨胀率,Uf,B、作用( Function),提供了一份“政策选择的菜单”,失业率,通货膨胀率,社会临界点,The Phillips Curve in the 1960s.,The Supply Shocks of the 1970s.,
