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1、The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009With Particular Emphasis on Economic IssuesByMycle SchneiderIndependent Consultant, Mycle Schneider Consulting, Paris (France) Project CoordinatorSteve ThomasProfessor for Energy Policy, Greenwich University (UK)Antony FroggattIndependent Consultant, Lond
2、on (UK)Doug KoplowDirector of Earth Track, Cambridge (USA)Modeling and Additional Graphic Design Julie HazemannDirector of EnerWebWatch, Paris (France)Paris, August 2009Commissioned byGerman Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety(Contract n UM0901290) AbouttheAuthors
3、 Mycle Schneider is an independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy based inParis. He founded the Energy Information Agency WISE-Paris in 1983 and directed it until 2003.Since 1997 he has provided information and consulting services to the Belgian Energy Minister,the French and
4、German Environment Ministries, the International Atomic Energy Agency,Greenpeace, the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, the Worldwide Fundfor Nature, the European Commission, the European Parliaments Scientific and TechnologicalOption Assessment Panel and its General Direct
5、orate for Research, the Oxford Research Group,and the French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety. Since 2004 he has been incharge of the Environment and Energy Strategies lecture series for the International MSc in ProjectManagement for Environmental and Energy Engineering Program
6、at the French Ecole des Mines inNantes. In 1997, along with Japans Jinzaburo Takagi, he received the Right Livelihood Award,also known as the “Alternative Nobel Prize”.Antony Froggatt works as independent European energy consultant based in London.Since 1997 Antony has worked as a freelance research
7、er and writer on energy and nuclear policyissues in the EU and neighboring states. He has worked extensively on EU energy issues forEuropean Governments, the European Commission and Parliament, environmental NGOs,commercial bodies and media. He has given evidence to inquiries and hearings in the Par
8、liamentsof Austria, Germany and the EU. He is a part time senior research fellow at the Royal Institute ofInternational Affairs Chatham House in London.Mr. Froggatt works intensively with environmental groups across Europe, particularly on energymarkets and policy and helped to establish a network o
9、n energy efficiency. He is a regular speakerat conferences, universities and training programs across the region.Prior to working freelance Antony worked for nine years as a nuclear campaigner and co-coordinator for Greenpeace International.Steve Thomas is Professor for energy policy at the Public S
10、ervices International Research Unit(PSIRU), University of Greenwich, where he has been senior researcher since 2001.Mr. Thomas holds a BSc (honors) degree in Chemistry from Bristol University and has beenworking in energy policy analysis since 1976. His main research interests are reforms of energyi
11、ndustries, economics and policy towards nuclear power, and corporate policies of energy industrycompanies. Recent clients include Public Services International, the European Federation of PublicService Unions, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (USA), Energywatch (UK) andGreenpeace Interna
12、tional.Doug Koplow founded Earth Track in 1999 to more effectively integrate information on energysubsidies. For the past 20 years, Mr. Koplow has written extensively on natural resource subsidiesfor organizations such as the Global Subsidies Initiative, the National Commission on EnergyPolicy, the
13、Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the United NationsEnvironment Programme (UNEP), Greenpeace, the Alliance to Save Energy, and the USEnvironmental Protection Agency. He has analyzed numerous government programs and madeimportant developments in subsidy valuation techniques.Mr. K
14、oplow holds an MBA from the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration and aBA in economics from Wesleyan University.ContactsMycle SchneiderPhone: +33-1-69 83 23 79Email: mycleorange.frAntony FroggattPh: +44-20-79 23 04 12E: a.froggattSteve ThomasDoug KoplowPh: +44-208 331 9056Ph: +1-617-661
15、 4700E: stephen.thomasgreenwich.ac.uk E:dkoplowM.Schneider,S.Thomas,A.Froggatt,D.KoplowWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport20092ContentsExecutiveSummaryandConclusions.5I.Introduction .8II.1.OverviewofOperation,PowerGeneration,AgeDistribution . 8II.2.InternationalNuclearExpansionScenarios.12II.3.Overview
16、ofCurrentNewbuild.14II.4.OverviewofPotentialNewcomerCountries .21II.5.StatusandTrendsinNuclearManufacturingCapacities .27II.6.StatusandTrendsinNuclearCompetence .30III.EconomicAnalysis. 40III.1.Introduction.40 III.1.1.Problemsofestimatingandcomparingnuclearcosts . 41 III.1.2.GenerationIII+plants . 4
17、2III.2.TheDeterminantsofNuclearEconomics.44III.3.FixedCosts.45 III.3.1.Constructioncosts. 45 III.3.2.Operatingcosts. 61 III.3.3.Decommissioningcosts . 63 III.3.4.Lifetime. 63III.4.ImplicationsforExistingandFutureReactors .64 III.4.1.Existingreactors . 65 III.4.2.Reactorsunderconstruction. 65 III.4.3
18、.Reactorsonwhichconstructionhasstopped . 66 III.4.4.Futureorders . 66III.5.NuclearLiabilityIssues.67III.6.TheSubsidyIssue.70 III.6.1.Overviewofsubsidiestonuclearenergy . 70 III.6.2.Commonformsofsupportaroundtheworld. 71 III.6.3.SubsidiestoexistingreactorsintheUSA. 76 III.6.4.SubsidiestotheUKsExistin
19、gNuclearPowerPlants . 81 III.6.5.TheFuture . 88IV.1.Africa .88IV.2.Americas.89IV.3.Asia.93IV.4.Europe.98 IV.4.1.NuclearPowerinWesternEurope . 99 IV.4.2.NuclearPowerinCentralandEasternEurope. 108IV.5.RussiaandtheFormerSovietUnion . 111Annex1:StatusofNuclearPowerintheWorld(1stAugust2009) .114Annex2:Nu
20、clearReactorsintheWorld“UnderConstruction”(1stAugust2009) .115Annex3:PotentialNuclearNewcomerCountries,ResearchReactorsandGridSize .117Annex4:TimetableofEventsatOlkiluoto3 .118M.Schneider,S.Thomas,A.Froggatt,D.KoplowWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport20093NoteTheauthorswishtothankAmoryB.Lovins,Chairman
21、oftheRockyMountainInstitute,USA,forhisextremelyusefulcommentsonadraftversionofthereport.ThanksalsotoMaryB.Davisforhercarefulproofreading.However,theresponsibilityforanyremainingerrorsremainswiththeauthors.Theprojectcoordinatorwishestoexpresshissinceregratitudetohiscoauthorsfortheirinvaluablecontribu
22、tionsandcreativethinking.Thereportrepresentstheperspectiveandopinionofthecontractoranddoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionoftheorderer(GermanFederalMinistryforEnvironment,NatureConservationandReactorSafety).M.Schneider,S.Thomas,A.Froggatt,D.KoplowWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport20094Executive Summary
23、 and ConclusionsThe future of the nuclear energy industry is subject to a large number of media reports,study projects, expert meetings and political debates. Much of the published data is basedon speculation rather than on an in-depth analysis of nuclear energys industrial history,current operating
24、 status and trends.The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009 provides the reader with the basicquantitative and qualitative facts on the nuclear power plants in operation, underconstruction and in planning phases throughout the world. A detailed overview assessesthe economic performance of past
25、and current nuclear projects.As of 1st August 2009 there are 435 nuclear reactors operating in the world, nine less thanin 2002. There are 52 units listed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as“under construction”. At the peak of the nuclear industrys growth phase in 1979 therewere 233
26、reactors being built concurrently. Even at the end of 1987, there were still120 reactors in process. Much has changed. For the first time since commercial use ofnuclear energy began in the middle of the 1950s no new nuclear plant was connected to thegrid in 2008. In fact, no start-up has been report
27、ed for the past two years, since Cernavoda-2was connected to the grid on 7 August 2007, after 24 years of construction.In 1989 a total of 177 nuclear reactors had been operated in what are now the 27 EUMember States, but as of 1st August 2009 only 144 units were in operation. Today theworldwide oper
28、ating reactors total 370,000 megawatts (370 GW), about 1,600 MW1 lessthan one year ago.In 2007 nuclear power plants generated about 2,600 TWh2 and provided 14% of theworlds electricity. After an unprecedented drop in electricity generation of 2% in 2007,nuclear power plants output lost another half
29、percentage point in 2008. Nuclear powerprovided 5.5% of the commercial primary energy production and about 2% of the finalenergy in the world, and has trended downwards for several years.Twenty-seven of the 31 countries operating nuclear power plants maintained (23) ordecreased (4) their share of nu
30、clear power within the electricity mix in 2008 relative to2007. Four countries (Czech Republic, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia) increased theirshare.The average age of the operating nuclear power plants in the world is 25 years. Somenuclear utilities envisage reactor lifetimes of 40 years or more. Con
31、sidering the fact thatthe average age of all 123 units that have already been closed is about 22 years, thedoubling of the operational lifetime seems rather optimistic. However, we have assumed anaverage lifetime of 40 years for all operating and in-construction reactors in ourcalculations of how ma
32、ny plants would be shut down year by year. The exercise makespossible an evaluation of the minimum number of plants that would have to come on-lineover the next decades in order to maintain the same number of operating plants.In addition to the 52 units currently under construction3, 42 reactors (16,000 MW)4 wouldhave to be planned, built and started up by 2015 one every month and a half and anadditional 192 units (170,000 MW) over the following 10-year period one every 19 days.1 The equivalent of an EPR (European Pressurized Water Reactor), as under con
