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1、climate change 全球变暖,1、纪律是管理关系的形式。阿法纳西耶夫2、改革如果不讲纪律，就难以成功。3、道德行为训练，不是通过语言影响，而是让儿童练习良好道德行为，克服懒惰、轻率、不守纪律、颓废等不良行为。4、学校没有纪律便如磨房里没有水。夸美纽斯5、教导儿童服从真理、服从集体，养成儿童自觉的纪律性，这是儿童道德教育最重要的部分。陈鹤琴,climate change 全球变暖climate change 全球变暖1、纪律是管理关系的形式。阿法纳西耶夫2、改革如果不讲纪律，就难以成功。3、道德行为训练，不是通过语言影响，而是让儿童练习良好道德行为，克服懒惰、轻率、不守纪律、颓废等不良
2、行为。4、学校没有纪律便如磨房里没有水。夸美纽斯5、教导儿童服从真理、服从集体，养成儿童自觉的纪律性，这是儿童道德教育最重要的部分。陈鹤琴Climate Change and Sea-level Rise1 Climate Change in the pastObservation MeasurementTemperature Change,2 Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change,MethodThe Main Radiative Forcing,Method,Changes in the atmospheric abundance of gr
3、eenhouse gases and aerosols, in solar radiation and in land surface properties alter the energy balance of the climate system. These changes are expressed in terms of radiative forcing, which is used to compare how a range of human and natural factors drive warming or cooling influences on global cl
4、imate.,The Main Radiative Forcing,Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years .,Carbon Dioxide,Car
5、bon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas.The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005.,Methane,The global atmospheric concentration of methane has increased from a pre-industrial value of ab
6、out 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in the early 1990s, and is 1774 ppb in 2005.,Nitrous Oxide,The global atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration increased from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005.,Anthropogenic contributions,The combined radiative forcing due to increases in carbon dioxi
7、de, methane, and nitrous oxide is +2.30+2.07 to +2.53wm-2.,Solar Irradiance,Changes in solar irradiance since 1750 are estimated to cause a radiative forcing of +0.12 +0.06 to +0.30wm-2,The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessme
8、nt Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 +0.6 to +2.4wm-2.,3 Projections of Future Changes in Climate and Sea Level Rise,SRESFuture Greenhouse Gas EmissionsFuture Ch
9、anges in ClimateSea Level Rise,SRES,Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.SRES ,that is, the IP
10、CC Special Report on Emission Scenarios.There are six scenario groups that should be considered equally sound that span a wide range of uncertainty,as required by the Terms of Conference.These encompass four combinations of demographic change,social and economic development,and broad technological d
11、evelopments,corresponding to the four families (A1,A2,B1,B2),each with an illustrative “marker”scenario.,A1. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of
12、 new and more efficient technologies.Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphas
13、is: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use.A2. The A2 storyline and
14、scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per
15、 capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines.,B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change i
16、n economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without ad
17、ditional climate initiatives.B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic,social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of econo
18、mic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.,Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions,Total cumulative SRES carbon emissi
19、ons from all sources through 2100 range from approximately 770 Gtc to approximately 2540 Gtc.,Future Changes in Climate,Advances in climate change modelling now enable best estimates and likely assessed uncertainty ranges to be given for projected warming for different emission scenarios.Continued g
20、reenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.,Best estimates and likely ranges for globally average surface air w
21、arming for six SRES emissions marker scenarios are shown in Table 1. For example, the best estimate for the low scenario (B1) is 1.8C (likely range is 1.1C to 2.9C), and the best estimate for the high scenario(A1FI) is 4.0C (likely range is 2.4C to 6.4C).,Sea Level Rise,Global warming can cause the
22、rise in sea level. Best estimates and likely ranges for the rise in sea level are shown in Table 1.,4 Mangrove Response to Projected Relative Sea-level Rise,The relationship between sea-level rise and the losses of coastal mangrovesThree general scenarios for mangrove response to relative sea-level
23、rise,The relationship between sea-level rise and the losses of coastal mangroves,Global sea-level rise is one of the more certain outcomes of global warming, it is already likely taking place, and several climate models project accelerated rate of sea-level rise over coming decades.Relative sea-leve
24、l rise is a major factor contributing to recent losses and projected future reductions in the area of valued coastal habitats, including mangroves and other tidal wetlands, with concomitant increased threat to human safety and shoreline development from coastal hazards.,Three general scenarios for m
25、angrove response to relative sea-level rise,Here it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration.There are three general scenarios for mangrove response to relative sea-level rise, given a landscape-level scale and time period of dec
26、ades or longer.,No change in relative sea-level,When sea-level is not changing relative to the mangrove surface, mangrove elevation; salinity; frequency, period, and depth of inundation; and other factors that determine if a mangrove community can persist at a location will remain relatively constan
27、t and the mangrove margins will remain in the same location.,Relative sea-level lowering,When sea-level is dropping relative to the mangrove surface, this forces the mangrove margins to migrate seaward. The mangrove may also expand laterally, displacing other coastal habitats, if areas adjacent to t
28、he mangrove, which are currently at a lower elevation than the mangrove surface, develop hydrologic conditions suitable for mangrove establishment.,Relative sea-level rising,If sea-level is rising relative to the mangrove surface, the mangroves seaward and landward margins retreat landward, the mang
29、rove species zones migrate inland as they maintain their preferred period, frequency and depth of inundation. The mangrove may also expand laterally if areas adjacent to the mangrove, which are currently at a higher elevation than the mangrove surface, developa suitable hydrologic regime.,Depending
30、on the ability of individual true mangrove species to colonize newly available habitat at a rate that keeps pace with the rate of relative sea level rise, slope of adjacent land and the presence of obstacles to landward migration of the landward boundary of the mangrove, such as seawalls and other s
31、horeline protection structures, some sites will revert to a narrow mangrove fringe, possible survival of individual trees, or even experience extirpation of the mangrove community.,So we should take measures to prevent global warming to protece the coastal mangroves.,Thank you for your attention！,6、最大的骄傲于最大的自卑都表示心灵的最软弱无力。斯宾诺莎7、自知之明是最难得的知识。西班牙8、勇气通往天堂，怯懦通往地狱。塞内加9、有时候读书是一种巧妙地避开思考的方法。赫尔普斯10、阅读一切好书如同和过去最杰出的人谈话。笛卡儿,Thank you,拯畏怖汾关炉烹霉躲渠早膘岸缅兰辆坐蔬光膊列板哮瞥疹傻俘源拯割宜跟三叉神经痛-治疗三叉神经痛-治疗,
