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1、行业弱景气凸显企业垄断优势公司评级最优-2当前价格11.60目标价格13.00目标期限2006-6-30市场数据总股本(百万股)182.25流通股本(百万股)58.63总市值(百万元)2114.12流通市值(百万元)680.0912个月最高/最低9.1313.30非流通股东持股67.8%流通股东持股32.2%估值200320042005F2006FEPS0.300.370.450.58BVPS1.722.032.392.80PE38.6031.6025.8220.20PB6.765.744.884.17股价表现(12个月)%一个月三个月十二个月相对收益(3.09)5.9140.95绝对收益(1
2、.53)1.0523.13n 成都商报区域垄断优势推动业务逆势走强：受互联网、移动电视等新媒体业务快速增长的冲击，2005年前三季度传统平面媒体广告额大幅下滑，全国平均在10%以上。然而，在行业弱势环境中，强势媒体的优势地位得到更为充分的显现，预计成都商报05年广告额增长10%以上。由于同时代理成都日报协同效应的存在，博瑞传播05年成都商报的广告代理份额将有所上升。n 依托资源拓展新媒体业务：在保持原有传统媒体业务垄断优势的基础上，公司依托资源积极寻求新的业务增长点，经过1年多的筹备，目前已基本确定了广电（如数字移动电视）和互联网（如网络杂志）两大主攻方向，预计明年初将有试探性的举措。尽管我们
3、目前尚无法对公司新媒体业务前景做出任何结论性的判断，但这一举措无疑具有十分重要的战略意义。我们通过多次的沟通后认为，公司在新媒体业务的发展会充分利用现有业务资源进行整合，并引入区域内的实力集团以尽可能规避其间存在的投资风险。n 未来3年传统媒体经营业务仍将保持稳定增长：预计成都商报未来3年在成都地区的日均发行量将在50万份左右，远超过其主要竞争对手华西都市报日均20万份的发行量，区域强势地位十分显著。在行业整体不景气、总体下滑的背景下，相当部分的弱势平面媒体将逐步消亡，使得广告市场份额将进一步向强势媒体集中，有望在未来3年内仍保持稳步增长的态势。n 集团业务资源整合稳步推进：自年初博瑞独家代理
4、成都日报的广告和投递业务以来，整合效应日趋明显，获得日报集团管理层的高度肯定，成都晚报的周末版广告年中也转由博瑞独家代理，集团业务资源逐步注入博瑞传播应是大势所趋。但由于经营机制上的巨大差异，集团对涉及人员大规模变动的整合工作较为谨慎，需有一个稳步推进的过程。我们基本维持之前深度报告中的假设不变。n 股改年内启动，预计对价水平为流通股东每10股获送2.53股：公司目前处于股权分置改革前的紧张准备阶段。我们判断，公司的股改方案应已获得四川省国资委的原则同意（具体比例未定），大致比例在10股获送2.53股左右。我们认为，股改对价因素在现有股价中未得到充分反映。n 估值及投资建议：我们调低对公司05
5、年盈利预测6.25%，至0.45元，0608年每股盈利预测分别为0.579元、0.656元和0.744元，0508年动态PE分别为25倍、20倍、18倍和16倍，股改对价还将使估值水平有2530%的下降。这一估值水平对于一家具有较强区域垄断优势的媒体企业存在相当程度的低估，因此，我们维持对博瑞传播“最优-2”的投资评级。博瑞传播盈利预测详表（20032008F）200320042005F2006F2007F2008F主营业务收入346,859398,027531,855617,236666,573719,086印刷业务91,569110,642144,911170,329193,918220,
6、849毛利率71.19%63.59%64.51%63.00%62.33%62.36%广告业务64,32167,20785,622110,193115,876121,959毛利率88.27%90.62%88.00%88.00%88.00%88.00%新闻纸销售114,641141,626171,329184,248191,340198,779毛利率5.51%4.55%4.00%4.50%4.50%4.50%发行投递66,03566,57475,64286,70386,70386,703毛利率73.66%71.44%66.00%65.00%65.00%65.00%配送业务3,2264,2946,8
7、008,1609,79211,750毛利率40.05%41.55%40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00%信息发布5,8787,2618,3509,60311,04312,700毛利率8.03%-17.13%-7.78%1.07%9.45%17.32%餐饮35,00042,00048,30055,545毛利率60.00%60.00%60.00%60.00%发行业务1,1894234,2006,0009,60010,800毛利率26.32%29.55%45.00%45.00%45.00%45.00%主营业务毛利179,002185,920250,564300,192326,073355,
8、425主营业务税金及附加8,53010,93216,48719,13420,66422,292主营业务税金及附加比率2.46%2.75%3.10%3.10%3.10%3.10%主营业务利润170,472174,988234,076281,058305,409333,133其他业务利润267316300300300300营业费用13,79914,93633,50738,88641,99445,302营业费用率3.98%3.75%6.30%6.30%6.30%6.30%管理费用36,54338,78855,84558,63766,65771,909管理费用率10.54%9.75%10.50%9.5
9、0%10.00%10.00%财务费用2,2363,3335,3507,9458,5155,804营业利润118,161118,247139,674175,889188,543210,418投资收益(22,871)(8,931)(8,981)(8,917)137 2,196 营业外收支净额(128)836 2,000 (500)(500)(500)利润总额95,161110,153132,693166,472188,180212,114所得税35,46139,58845,11654,93662,09969,998实际所得税率37.26%35.94%34.00%33.00%33.00%33.00%
10、少数股东损益4,6515,2025,0006,0006,5006,500净利润55,05067,24382,578105,536119,581135,616每股收益0.302 0.369 0.453 0.579 0.656 0.744 数据来源：光大证券研究所3本报告由光大证券有限责任公司研究所编写，以合法地获得尽可能可靠、准确、完整的信息为基础，但不保证所载信息之精确性和完整性。光大证券研究所将随时补充、修订或更新有关信息，但未必发布。本报告根据中华人民共和国法律在中华人民共和国境内分发，供投资者参考。光大证券有限责任公司及其附属机构（包括研究所）不对投资者买卖有关公司股份而产生的盈亏承担责
11、任。利润表(千元)2002200320042005F2006F主营业务收入266,527.2346,859.5398,027.1531,854.7617,236.4减:主营业务成本119,020.6167,857.2212,106.2281,290.9317,044.1减:营业税金8,265.98,529.910,931.616,487.519,134.3主营业务利润139,240.7170,472.4174,989.3234,076.3281,057.9加:其他业务利润324.1267.0316.1300.0300.0减:营业费用6,492.113,799.114,936.133,506.8
12、38,885.9减:管理费用22,190.636,543.438,788.255,844.758,637.5减:财务费用1,110.92,235.63,332.85,754.08,459.1营业利润109,771.2118,161.2118,248.3139,270.7175,375.5加:投资收益-14,284.7-22,871.3-8,931.0-8,981.0-8,917.0加:非经常性损益-2,358.3-128.4836.52,000.0-500.0利润总额93,128.295,161.5110,153.8132,289.7165,958.5减:所得税39,141.135,460.7
13、39,587.644,978.554,766.3净利润48,060.455,050.267,243.482,311.2105,192.2资产负债表(千元)2002200320042005F2006F货币资金77,864.586,178.2108,471.572,803.2134,604.4应收帐款1,760.43,998.611,374.569,141.180,240.7应收票据-174.1-存货1,293.22,982.83,096.55,318.56,172.4其他流动资产35,185.086,665.2123,962.1132,963.7154,309.1固定资产净额108,191.11
14、76,378.6165,745.7249,971.7302,445.8在建工程15,399.51,943.053,503.8-其他固定资产15,851.30.08,001.8-其他资产157,159.9201,993.7186,587.6212,741.9246,894.5资产总额412,704.9562,514.2662,793.9744,940.1926,667.0短期债务50,000.0100,000.0115,000.0120,000.0200,000.0应付帐款13,888.424,119.96,284.514,064.515,852.2应付票据-30,350.035,580.042
15、,193.647,556.6其他流动负债61,891.646,913.989,974.779,778.292,585.5长期负债合计10,926.610,926.610,926.613,296.415,430.9其他债务269.9269.9269.9-负债总额136,976.5212,580.3258,035.6269,332.8371,425.2少数股东权益16,429.435,581.034,772.039,772.045,772.0股本130,180.1130,180.1182,252.1182,252.1182,252.1留存收益129,119.0184,172.9187,734.22
16、53,583.1327,217.7股东权益259,299.0314,353.0369,986.3435,835.2509,469.7负债与股东权益412,704.9562,514.2662,793.9744,940.0926,667.0现金流量表(千元)2002200320042005F2006FEBIT96,597.497,525.5112,650.2136,043.7174,917.6减:EBIT的税赋40,599.236,341.640,484.846,254.957,722.8NOPLAT55,998.261,183.972,165.489,788.8117,194.8加:折旧7,04
17、1.013,560.217,257.822,337.928,084.3减:营运资本变动(6,846.3)36,404.918,250.575,499.220,171.5经营活动现金流69,885.638,339.171,172.836,627.5125,107.5资本支出(43,907.4)(81,747.8)(6,624.9)(106,563.9)(80,558.4)其他净资产变动(5,675.6)(28,982.5)7,404.3(16,052.6)(32,018.1)投资活动现金流(49,583.0)(110,730.2)779.4(122,616.5)(112,576.5)营运自由现金
18、流20,302.5(72,391.1)71,952.2(85,989.0)12,531.0超额现金变动(33,025.0)4,087.118,050.4(46,425.0)54,970.7税后财务费用(644.0)(1,402.5)(2,135.1)(3,797.6)(5,667.6)付息债务变动(21,000.0)50,000.015,000.05,000.080,000.0股东权益变动35,042.455,053.955,633.365,849.073,634.5红利(13,018.0)(9,763.5)-(16,462.2)(31,557.7)少数股东损益5,926.74,650.65,
19、201.65,000.06,000.0融资活动现金流(26,717.8)102,625.691,750.29,164.1177,380.0数据来源: Wind资讯 光大证券研究所财务指标2002200320042005F2006F销售利润率主营业务利润率52.2%49.1%44.0%44.0%45.5%EBITDA Margin38.9%32.0%32.6%29.8%32.9%EBIT Margin36.2%28.1%28.3%25.6%28.3%NOPLAT Margin21.0%17.6%18.6%16.9%19.0%净利润率18.0%15.9%16.9%15.5%17.0%投资资本效率固
20、定资产周转率2.972.442.332.562.23流动资金周转率-20.83174.9013.586.984.98流动资产周转率2.122.331.852.001.87应收帐款周转率154.52120.4651.7813.218.26存货周转率198.90162.24130.95126.41107.43总资产周转率0.680.710.650.760.74投资资本周转率1.131.081.031.121.00投资回报率ROE20.3%17.5%18.3%18.9%21.1%ROA13.6%10.9%11.2%12.1%12.6%ROIC(税前)40.9%30.4%29.1%28.6%28.4%
21、ROIC(税后)23.7%19.1%19.1%18.9%19.0%增长率主营收入增长率-4.1%30.1%14.8%33.6%16.1%主营利润增长率66.4%22.4%2.6%33.6%20.1%EBITDA增长率147.9%7.2%16.9%21.9%28.2%EBIT增长率174.8%1.0%15.5%20.8%28.6%NOPLAT增长率62.0%9.3%21.0%21.3%30.5%净利润增长率62.4%14.5%22.1%22.4%27.8%投资资本增长率16.4%52.6%0.1%45.4%18.6%财务杠杆资产负债率33.2%37.8%38.9%36.2%40.1%负债权益比5
22、2.8%67.6%69.7%61.8%72.9%净负债权益比-10.7%4.4%1.8%10.8%12.8%流动比率0.920.901.011.101.06速动比率0.910.891.001.081.04分红指标2002200320042005F2006FDPS(元)0.070.050.000.090.17分红比率27.1%17.7%0.0%20.0%30.0%股息收益率0.61%0.46%0.00%0.77%1.49%业绩和估值指标2002200320042005F2006FEBITDA103,638.4111,085.7129,908.0158,381.6203,001.8EBIT96,5
23、97.497,525.5112,650.2136,043.7174,917.6NOPLAT55,998.261,183.974,044.289,788.8117,194.8净利润48,060.455,050.267,243.482,311.2105,192.2EPS(元)0.260.300.370.450.58BVPS(元)1.421.722.032.392.80PE(X)44.2238.6031.6025.8220.20PB(X)8.206.765.744.884.17P/Sales(X)7.976.135.344.003.44CAGR19.6%24.1%21.0%18.0%PEG2.251.601.511.44EV/EBITDA14.5914.3216.4914.2211.25EV/EBIT15.6616.3119.0216.5613.06EV/NOPLAT27.0126.0028.9425.0919.49EV/IC5.964.115.534.003.42ROIC/WACC2.833.102.462.982.67REP2.101.332.251.341.28
