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1、,2012 年 2 月 5 日亚太盈利预测：在显著下调过后，调整周期接近底部证券研究报告盈利预测下调势头放缓过去几个月里，市场盈利预测的下调幅度已超过 10%。即使我们预计未来还会出现更多调整，但进一步下调的速度可能会放缓。在利好消息方面，全球领先指标出现了一定程度的上行势头。主题 1：短期盈利调整与在 G2 经济体的业务规模短期盈利预测调整可能仍受到行业在 G2 经济体业务规模的推动。软件/IT 服务板块可能较易出现盈利风险。主题 2：随着宏观经济企稳，板块盈利复苏随着市场开始计入今年晚些时候的企业利润反弹，各板块盈利复苏的差异将成为重要的题材。历史分析表明科技和可选消费品板块通常会在盈利周
2、期中处于领先位置。四季度业绩期：目前位置小幅低于预期目前为止，MXAPJ 指数中有 114 家企业（占总市值的 19%）。实际盈利达到I/B/E/S 市场预测的 98%。四季度盈利可能面临风险的板块和股票在本业绩期，化工、交通运输以及中国零售业的盈利可能不及预期。我们列出了盈利可能高于或低于预期的 11 只股票。8 月份以来市场盈利预测被显著下调MXAPJ EPS level,4439,2012,2013,201134,J-10,S-10,D-10,M-11,J-11,S-11,D-11,资料来源：FactSet、I/B/E/S、MSCI、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,鄧啟志+852-2978
3、-0722 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司慕天辉,CFA+852-2978-1328 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司Caesar Maasry+852-2978-7213 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司欧阳汉+81(3)6437-9888 高盛证券株式会社高盛集团,高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 FINRA 的注册/合格研究分析师。本报告仅供分发给高盛机构客户。高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,1.,2.,3.,4.,5
4、.,2,2012 年 2 月 5 日Earnings:Closer to the bottom of the downward revision cycleRefocusing on Asian fundamentalsAsian equities gained 10%over the past month,making it the strongestJanuary since 2001 in terms of performance.We characterize the rally as themarket“pricing out”major left-tailed macro risk
5、s,thanks to several encouragingdevelopments in Europe,including the ECBs 3-year LTRO.Now that markets are moving back to pricing in the“base case”of moderategrowth as investors are less worried about a significant global shock occurring,it is time for investors to refocus on Asian fundamentals.The r
6、esults season and,more importantly,corporate guidance should provide useful insights intothe trajectory of Asian earnings.Earnings revisions are incrementally more important to returnsThroughout the first half of 2011,continuous earnings upgrades were not ableto drive equities higher.Despite an 11%r
7、ise in EPS,the MXAPJ index was flat.An obvious reason is that investors were ahead of the revisions curve andpricing in downgrades before the sell-side analysts.Since mid-2011,cuts in consensus earnings estimates have accelerated.Wesee a“re-coupling”of equities prices and earnings changes(Exhibit 1)
8、.Weexpect this to continue,and in this report we make the following arguments onearnings:We still see the current revisions as part of a“moderatecorrection cycle”,barring renewed external shocks.After rapid downgrades in the previous months,we believe weare now closer to the bottom.The pace of furth
9、er cuts may decelerate,given a more encouraging set of macro data recently in the developedmarkets.Near-term earnings revisions will still be driven by G2 exposures.From this top-down perspective,software/IT services may be vulnerable tomodest downside earnings risks.Looking forward into 2H,as the m
10、arket starts pricing in an earningsgrowth recovery in 2013,investors should focus on the relative ordersof potential profit rebound among sectors.For the current reporting season,Chemicals,Transportation andChina Retail are sectors that may deliver weaker numbers.Early resultsso far indicate a small
11、 miss in 4Q earnings.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,亚太,Dec-10,Jun-11,Feb-11,Aug-11,Dec-11,Sep-00,Apr-11,Sep-01,Oct-11,Sep-10,Sep-95,Sep-96,Sep-97,Sep-98,Sep-99,Sep-02,Sep-03,Sep-04,Sep-05,Sep-06,Sep-07,Sep-08,Sep-09,Sep-11,3,2012 年 2 月 5 日Exhibit 1:A“decoupling”then“recoupling”of price and earningsMXAPJ 12M forward
12、 EPS and indexIndex level,EPS,亚太,510,MXAPJ level,MXAPJ 12M forward EPS,43,490470,2H:indices and,42,450430410390370350,1H:equities felldespite earningsupgrades,earnings revisionsmoved together,4140393837,Source:FactSet,I/B/E/S,MSCI,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Exhibit 2:The momentum of earnings
13、sentiment has aligned well with significant inflection points in the regionalequity indexMXAPJ forward earnings sentiment and index,Earnings sentiment(%)60Forward earnings sentiment(%)40200-20-40-60Source:FactSet,I/B/E/S,MSCI,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,MXAPJ index level700MXAPJ
14、 index(right)600500400300200100,Sep-10,Dec-10,Jun-10,Mar-11,Sep-11,Dec-11,Jun-11,4,2012 年 2 月 5 日Earnings revisions:a pause after rapid downgradesThe majority of earnings downgrades in 4Q took place during November,whenMXAPJ earnings estimates fell 5%in just one month.Since then,theinvestment commun
15、ity has become more hopeful on the developments inEurope,and with the better global macro data,analysts revisions have alsostabilized.Nevertheless,divergence among markets and sectors remains aslarge as we observed in 3Q,and we highlight the following:Earnings in global cyclical sectors like compute
16、r hardware andtransportation continue to be revised down rapidly.This largelyexplains the cut in estimates in Korea and Taiwan.In the last earnings preview,we highlighted that commodity-relatedsectors were vulnerable to negative earnings surprise,and we arenow seeing some small earnings downgrades i
17、n steel/aluminum,chemicals,metals/mining,etc.Oil and gas is the exception,as oilprices have been firmly holding up(Brent+4%,WTI+25%during 4Q).Indonesia is the only market in which earnings were revised up.We are now closer to the bottom of the earnings cycle;pace offurther cuts may slowWe expect 6%E
18、PS growth for the MXAPJ index in 2012,vs.11%byconsensus,mainly driven by softer margin assumptions.This implies some5%earnings downgrades ahead,although the pace of further cuts coulddecelerate given the rapid revisions over the past few months.Recent macrodata has also been more encouraging.Our Glo
19、bal Leading Indicator(GLI),which has a reasonable linkage with MXAPJ forward EPS growth estimates,isseeing its momentum picking up.On the other hand,if the 4Q reporting season turns out to be a hugedisappointment,it may be a trigger for another wave of earnings downgrades.Historically,negative surpr
20、ises during earnings season tend to lead to forwardearnings estimate cuts.Exhibit 3:Consensus earnings estimates have come down significantly since AugustMXAPJ EPS level estimatesMXAPJ EPS level,weekly46,亚太,4442,20132013growth:,40,2012,+13%,382012,36,2011,growth:+11%,34Source:FactSet,I/B/E/S,MSCI,Go
21、ldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Philippines,Singapore,Indonesia,China,India,Thailand,Malaysia,Australia,HongKong,MXAPJ,Korea,Taiwan,Industrials/conglos,Semiconductors,Retail/durables,Metals/mining,Chemicals,Property,Utilities,Media,Transportation,Insurance/otherfin.,Staples/healthcare
22、,Steel,aluminium,Software,Banks,Autos,Oilandgas,Bldgmat,Telecom,CompHW,4Q,5,2012 年 2 月 5 日Exhibit 4:Korea and Taiwan were downgraded most;Indonesia is the only market that had upward revisions in,亚太Exhibit 5:Computer hardware and transportation wererevised down most,Revisions to 2011E EPS level in 4
23、QRevisions to 2011E EPS level in 4Q,EPS revision(4Q)4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%-12%,EPS revision(4Q)5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%-40%,-14%-16%Source:FactSet,I/B/E/S,MSCI,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.Exhibit 6:Where do we stand in the earnings downgrade cycle?We expect some 5%downgrades ahead,but a
24、regetting closer to the bottomEarnings revision index in the past“major”and“minor”correction cycles,Earnings revision index110,Minor correction,cycle10090,80,We expect somedowngrades ahead;,7060504030,199720002003200620092011-2012,but now closer to the bottomMajor correctioncycle,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
25、 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24,Months from beginning of downward cycleSource:I/B/E/S Global Aggregate,MSCI,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,2000,2001,2010,2012E,Dec-94,Dec-95,Dec-96,Dec-97,Dec-98,Dec-99,Dec-02,Dec-03,Dec-04,Dec-05,Dec-06,Dec-07,Dec-08,Dec-00,Dec-09,Dec
26、-01,Dec-10,Dec-94,Dec-95,Dec-96,Dec-97,Dec-98,Dec-99,Dec-02,Dec-03,Dec-04,Dec-05,Dec-06,Dec-07,Dec-08,Dec-09,Dec-00,Dec-01,Dec-10,Dec-11,Dec-11,2013E,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2011E,6,2012 年 2 月 5 日Exhibit 7:Our below-consensus earnings forecasts are mainly driven by softer margin assu
27、mptionsConsensus net margin 9.4%vs.GS top-down 9.2%,亚太,EPS growth(%),MXAPJ net margin,cons.expectation,1412,Consensus,14%12%,Including financialsExcluding financials,108,GS top-down,10%8%,9.2%9.4%7.1%7.4%,9.8%7.8%,6,6%,44%22%0,2011P,2012E,2013E,Exhibit 8:Consensus earnings forecasts have historicall
28、ybeen closely related to the global economic cycle.GLI%change yoy vs.MXAPJ 12-month forward EPS growthestimates,Exhibit 9:.our GLI is finally seeing some upwardmomentumGlobal Leading Indicator(GLI)headline and momentum,GLI(%change yoy)15GLI%yoy105,12-month forward EPS growth,Forward EPS growth35%30%
29、25%20%,GLI(%chg yoy)15105,GLI(%chg mom,3mma)21.510.5,0,0,15%,0,-0.5,-5,10%5%,-5,-1-1.5,-10-15,0%-5%,-10-15,Headline GLI,GLI Momentum,-2-2.5,Source:FactSet,I/B/E/S,MSCI,Worldscope,Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.Exhibit 10:Even though earnings results are backward looking,surprises may st
30、ill lead to forward earnings revisionsEarnings surprise vs.forward earnings revisionsChanges to FY1 earnings,FY0 earnings,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Average,surprise,Worse than-20%-20%to-15%-15%to-10%-10%to-5%-5%to 0%+0%to+5%+5%to+10%+10%to+15%+15%to+20%Better t
31、han+20%,-35%-9-4-4-32012315,-36%-8-7-5-2023027,-23%-6-4-3-1115328,-16%-5-7-2-4225726,-13%-17-10-3-3123918,-16%-5-4-101371019,-21%-9-2-4-1026734,-22%-9-7-4-1035710,-40%-9-8-7-2137650,-25%-15-9-6-2136539,-27%-12-6-4-21361132,-6%-5-6-401471139,-6%-8-3-3-31-1-471,-22%-9-6-4-2125726,Source:FactSet,MSCI,G
32、oldman Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,7,2012 年 2 月 5 日Sectors that may have risks to 4Q earningsThe following sectors may deliver weak earnings in 4Q,some of which maycontinue into early 2012 as growth remains soft.Analysts assumptions forthese sectors may be optimistic relative to where t
33、he macro picture currentlystands.Chemicals:We continue to believe that there may be downsiderisks to chemicals earnings for 4Q11.Industry data points showthat margins further worsened in 4Q,declining 20%on averagefrom the previous quarter.We attribute this to the challengingmacro conditions,and give
34、n the low visibility of global growthoutlook,it remains unclear when chemical companies will be outof their bottom of the earnings cycle.Transportation:In our view consensus assumption of higher salesgrowth for airlines may prove optimistic as global growth(bothEM and DM)significantly slowed in 2011
35、.Cargo businessgrowth has stayed negative almost for the entire year.Ourairlines analyst believes that Taiwanese airlines in particular aremost vulnerable to negative surprise as they are very exposed tothe DM cargo business.Shipping companies have been affectedby the low volume growth.In addition,t
36、he meaningful decline infreight rates coupled with persistently high fuel costs suggeststhere is likely a margin squeeze.Our analysts believe thatearnings may still miss in 4Q even after meaningful downgrades,but they should see a rebound in 2012.China Retail:We believe the sector is increasingly vu
37、lnerable toearnings disappointments.This is one of the few country sectorsthat earnings estimates have been continuously raised.However,same store sales growth in China seems to be peaking out.Onthe cost side,labor and rental costs have seen a sharp rise in thepast few years,and it takes time for ra
38、w material costs to comedown even though inflation has recently moderated.We areconcerned that retailers may face severe margin pressure ifrevenue does not grow fast enough.In our view,a positive surprise in 4Q is less likely to come from awhole sector.In an environment of slower revenue growth,webe
39、lieve specific stocks with better cost control may beat marketexpectations.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,亚太,LLDPE-Ethylene,PP-Propylene,PTA-PX,PTA-Naphtha,HDPE-Ethylene,ABS-Naphtha,PVC-Ethylene,BD-Naphtha,SBR-BD-SM,PVC-Naphtha,EG-Ethylene,PX-Naphtha,Propylene-Naphtha,Ethylene-Naphtha,PS-Naphtha,Jun-10,Sep-10,Sep-0
40、9,Jun-09,Mar-10,Jun-11,Mar-11,Dec-09,Sep-11,Dec-10,Dec-11,8,2012 年 2 月 5 日Exhibit 11:Regional chemicals earnings estimates havehad moderate cuts,but probably have more to go.MXAPJ chemicals EPS integerMXAPJ Chemicals EPS integer1701601501401301201101009080Source:FactSet,I/B/E/S,MSCI,Goldman Sachs Gl
41、obal ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Exhibit 12:.as margins fell 20%on average in 4Q4Q chemical product margin performance4Q chemical product margin perf60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%,亚太,Jul-10,Jan-10,Apr-10,Jan-11,Oct-10,Jul-11,2011E,Jan-10,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-11,Ju
42、l-10,Mar-10,Jan-10,Sep-10,Nov-10,Mar-11,Jan-11,Jul-11,Sep-11,Nov-11,May-10,May-11,Jan-12,Mar-10,Jul-10,Sep-10,Jun-11,Sep-11,Aug-09,Jun-09,May-10,Nov-10,Aug-10,Nov-10,Aug-11,May-10,May-11,Nov-11,2Q08,4Q08,Oct-09,Dec-09,Apr-09,Feb-10,Feb-11,Nov-11,1Q11,2005,2007,Oct-11,Apr-11,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,
43、2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,BDIY,9,2012 年 2 月 5 日Exhibit 13:Consensus sales assumptions for airlinesmay not have fully reflected the global slowdown.Nominal G7 GDP growth vs.regional airlines sales growth,亚太Exhibit 14:.and the cargo business has experiencednegative growth almost for the entire yea
44、rFar East RFTK(revenue freight tones kilometers)growth,Nominal GDP growth(%)6Nominal G7 GDP growth543210-1,Sales growth(%)20Regional airlines sales growth151050-5-10-15-20,Far East RFTK growth50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%,Exhibit 15:China throughput volume has continuouslybeen on the downtrendChina thro
45、ughput volume growthChina throughput volume growth(%yoy),Exhibit 16:Shippers are under severe margin pressuregiven lower freight rates but consistently high fuel costsBDIY,CCFI and fuel costCCFI,fuel cost(indexed at 100),60%,4,500,BDIY,CCFI,Fuel cost,160,50%40%,4,0003,500,150140,30%,3,000,Fuel cost
46、rising,130,2,500,20%10%0%,2,0001,5001,000,120110100,-10%-20%,5000,Freight rates falling,9080,Exhibit 17:China retail is one of the few sectors aroundthe region in which earnings estimates are still beingraisedChina retail EPS integer,Exhibit 18:Same store sales growth has significantlyslowed in Chin
47、aDepartment Stores SSSG vs.income tax receipts growth,China retail EPS2221201918171615,(yoy%)30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%,GS China Dept Stores Composite Same-Store-Sales Index(LHS)Income tax receipts growth(RHS),(yoy%)60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%,Source:Bloomberg,CEIC,Company data,FactSet,I/B/E/S,MSCI,Goldman
48、 Sachs Global ECS Research.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,10,2012 年 2 月 5 日Stock screens for 4Q earnings surpriseOur top-down earnings season stock screen,as we have used consistently inthe past,focuses on the following criteria to screen for earnings surprise:Consensus earnings sentiment:Our analysis suggests that
49、 strongearnings revisions could signal earnings surprises,given that earningsvisibility typically improves closer to the reporting date but analysts tend torevise numbers in a step-wise manner.Thus,the sentiment of revisionsprior to results can signal a surprise in the same direction(Refer to AsiaPa
50、cific:Portfolio Strategy:Surprise Me!,Feb 14,2007).Historical surprise track record:In addition,we find companies thathave surprised before are likely to do so again.This methodology iseffective in identifying companies that tend to give overly optimistic orconservative guidance.Exhibits 19-20 show
