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1、,-20%,/,/,6,/,600549,2013,2,7,60%,3.6760,41.96021-S1010511090001CFA,550048%,APT17.2%3.67,30%2011,48.2%3,021-S1010512050001,3.15,60%,3.1116.67%,5.25,9%,60%,40%,300,8700,60%,7,PE,20%,20133,4,2015,3.2,148.50,2013/,0%20120207 20120509 20120803 20121105 20130201,60%80%100%220.74/4355.05/8711.19,2013-2015
2、EPS 0.003/0.06/0.13,300,2775.84578.66/122.9,12,51.24,/27.42,1,7.45%,2012-2014,EPS,0.80/1.49/2.02,10.25%,41.96,2012/2013/2014,PE,52/28/21,7.64%,12,430.27,20105538,201111910,2012E9838,2013E12646,2014E15677,1,600549,YoY%YoY%PEPBEV/EBITDAWind,-12.635010.70.5121.613.78211.241,115.11021191.81.5031.829.728
3、8.315,-17.4547-46.40.8025.514.0527.3222013,2,28.5101385.31.4925.721.2286.0146,24.0137535.72.0226.923.2214.811EPS,.2012-12-5,600459APT161,5500APT1.775005000,2000,30001.2,25000.5,2011,119.1,52%,47%,2,2011,16%,3,2011,15.6%,32%wind,52%,37.3%wind,47.1%,1,600459,2028,8,11,4659.30,9.64,7173,3223.1,2.7,1.99
4、,65760.21%,10.3,1,WO3,Mo,Mo,WO3,2,5822,0784,659,49,01247,41496,4260.21%4500,/,7,1737,1730.02%,1,4251,7993,224,8,22111,64519,8660.06%2010,11,6,5766,5760.02%,20134,1,31,3.2148.50,/,2015,2013,3,2650,148.5*,0.21%*,85%=2650,2013,3/4*60%20141193 2120 2650,80%2015,100%,220.74,2013-20154,355.05,8,711.19,98.
5、95%,60%,60,5500,17.2%,APT,1.748.2%,30%48%,2,6010.317.2%,5500815048.2%,30%48%18%,2012,11,23,2,7,600459,2012,12,31,4.38,8454,1.270.8454-1.27+5.67=5.25,5.67,3.68,5379.8,9%,9.66,/,2011,3,16.473.67,/,60%,9%,3.114,6.12,5.25,16.67%,8700,60%,PE 3.67,/8700*60%=7,200,reo,8.4,100,70%,7,1360,/,4,3/,2013,1000,10
6、01000606001004530201251%,51%51%*60%51%*60%,7,70%,3,21,2012,43,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,01,/,/,6004592012PMI,4 2012140000135000130000125000120000115000110000105000100000,5 2012550000500000450000400000350000300000,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,01,02,wind,2013-2015,wind,0.003/0.06/0.132012/2013/2014,
7、EPS,0.80/1.49/2.02,2011,1.50,41.96,2012/2013/2014,PE,52/28/21,4,600459,20105,5384,34121.63%821091.96%3085.57%771.40%762811.33%31765213720.98%1663506.32%0.51,201111,9108,12231.81%7491461.22%5214.37%1581.33%192,15518.09%54622,14765430.46%4721,0218.57%1.50,2012E9,8387,32925.50%4921181.20%4434.50%920.94
8、%01,27612.97%35201,29138730.00%3575475.56%0.80,2013E12,6469,40325.65%1901521.20%5694.50%1851.46%02,13616.89%35202,15164530.00%4921,0138.01%1.49,2014E15,67711,46026.90%2351881.20%7054.50%1791.14%02,90118.51%35202,91687530.00%6661,3758.77%2.02,20107365,8399811,1218,6772,3221012296433,29511,9721,339953
9、5,3997,691421361787,8706827604,103,20115075,4951,2511,1398,3932,6701782481,1674,26312,6561,4711,2074,0386,7166901988877,6036827565,052,2012E3944,7559051,0917,1442,9211782481,2324,57911,7238901,0992,9704,9596901988875,8476827565,876,2013E5066,0991,1761,4019,1823,1951782481,1834,80413,9861,0981,4103,3
10、605,8696901988876,7566827567,230,2014E6277,4341,4741,72211,2563,3081782481,1424,87616,1326931,7193,7676,1806901988877,0676827569,065,1,54611,972,1,61212,656,1,96811,723,2,46113,986,3,12716,132,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,350,1,021,547,1,013,1,375,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,166,472,357,492,666,202-1
11、2276,243-2,474248,212-129183,254-1,237197,286-1,245187,-12.6-8.410.7,115.1243.4191.8,-17.4-40.8-46.4,28.567.585.3,24.035.835.7,671,-490,1,169,720,1,269,%,-51726121,-1,09312-90,-528000,-479000,-357000,%EBIT Margin%EBITDAMargin%,21.612.616.36.3,31.819.922.08.6,25.514.817.05.6,25.718.520.58.0,26.919.72
12、1.58.8,-388,-1,181,-528,-479,-357,%,049,01,777,0-581,0208,0-405,%,13.73.4,29.79.5,14.05.3,21.29.5,23.211.2,-258,-374,-82,-152,-206,%,-482-692-409,381,442-229,-92-755-113,-185-129112,-179-790121,%,%,65.721.026.5,60.130.59.1,49.930.09.1,48.330.010.1,43.830.010.1,5,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe ana
13、lysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts
14、 compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclos
15、ures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action,letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,
