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1、12,-0,1,12,-0,122,-0,3,12,-0,124,-0,5,12,-0,6,12,-0,7,12,-0,8,12,-0,9,12,-1,0,12,-1,121,-1,2,13,-0,1,13,-0,2,(,),PEG,2013,2,2013,2,7,OECD,2012+16.9%+8.2%+9.7%12,1-12,103.7,12,4,021-,-8%,+15%,3,4,12,2012,12,2013,70112-4.5%,S1010510120019021-S1010512080009,2013,+16%1 2,1120123%2013,-6%,2012,12,30%25%2
2、0%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%,300,+,PE/PB,2008,6,1,2012,12,2.,.2013-1-302012 12.2013-1-21,3.,2013,1,A,TCL,4.,2012,11,.2013-1-11,.2012-12-28,5.,2012,11,EPS2011 2012E 2013E 2014E,PE2011 2012E 2013E 2014E,.2012-12-20,29.20,1.74,2.47,2.87,3.26,17,12,10,9,0.72,6.,2013,13.68,1.00,1.20,1.38,1.57,14,11,10,9,0.84,
3、.2012-12-12,9.1824.019.47,1.090.730.56,1.101.050.63,1.341.310.77,1.581.660.84,83317,82315,71812,61411,0.641.041.18,7.,.2012-12-7,12.9011.42,0.581.29,0.831.08,1.061.25,1.281.43,229,1611,129,108,0.742.59,8.,2012,10,TCL,A,2.3810.57,0.120.72,0.100.63,0.150.76,0.170.92,2015,2417,1614,1411,1.591.72,.2012-
4、11-28,2013,2,5,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,15,16,2013,2,.1.2.3.3.6.9.11.13.13.15.16.17.17.2.2.2.2.3.3.3.3.4.4.4.4.5,14 2009-201217 201218 2012,.5.5.5.5.5,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,29,30,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,43,44,47,48,52,53,54,55,2013,2,.6.6.6.6.7.7.7.7.7,28 2009-201231 201232 201242 20
5、09-201245 201246 2012,.7.8.8.8.8.8.8.9.9.9.9.9.9.10.10.10.10.10.10.11.11,49,LCD,.11,50 LCD,.11,51,LED/,/3D,.12,.12.12.12.12,56,PE,.13,1,5,2013,2,5758596061,PBPEPBPEPB,.13.13.13.14.14,626364656667686970717273,TCLTCL,PEPE,vs.vs.PEPBPEPBPEPBPEPBPEPB,.14.14.15.15.15.15.16.16.16.16.16.16,7475,PEPE,vs.vs.
6、,.17.17,.12,2,2012,300,.18,34,PEPE,.18.18.19,2013,2,2012,CEIC,2012,1-12,+16.9%,1-11,1.3,1-12,9.7%,+8.2%,2011,1 11,12,33%,412OECD12,2012,12,+15%12,4,-4.5%,-8%12,12,3+4%+7%+2%,2012 12,-7%,-6%,16%1 2,11,12,2012,1,2013,PE/PB,2008,2,201320136,3%2013,2,A,QFII,1,11,-0,8,11,-1,0,11,-1,122,-0,2,12,-0,4,12,-0
7、,126,-0,8,12,-1,0,12,-1,2,11-11,11-12,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,11-11,11-12,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,2013,2,A,TCL,CEI
8、C16.9%1,1-115361,2012,1-121.38.2%,1-11,2,14,0061-12,150001000050000,CEIC,35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,6000500040003000200010000,CEIC,20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%,9.7%,2012,122011,64733%,3,14.35%,1-12(,),2013,4,7.2%,60,40%,100000,40%,50,800006000040000200000,30%20%10%0%-10%,403020100,20%0%-20%,2,11-06,11-07,11-08,
9、11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-06,11-08,11-10,11-12,12-02,12-04,12-06,12-08,12-10,12-12,2013,2,1-1011%12%,1-11,12,1-11,463103.7,4,6.5%,12,11.2%,1.9%,OECD 12,3%,16%99.5 98.8,540%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,6105103101999795,CEIC,OECD,12-3
10、7%,737,701,3.2%2004,15%,4,11,2,7591.98,3.7,7,8,1400120010008006004002000,20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,1400120010008006004002000,20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%,11/8,11/12,12/4,12/8,12/12,11/8,11/12,12/4,12/8,12/12,3,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,2013,2,9,10,20072010,20082011,20092012,20
11、072010,20082011,20092012,1,5001,0005000,1086420,12,701,+18%,12,90%12,10,2013,12,317,10.6%2012,20132013,11,12,7006005004003002001000,30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,7006005004003002001000,30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,11/8,11/12,12/4,12/8,12/12,11/8,11/12,12/4,12/8,12/12,1,2013,1,4,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11
12、-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11
13、-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,31.7%,32.9%,28.0%,25%,6.1%,10%,2013,2,12,+37%,42%1,12,+14%,12,12,34,-4%,2012,12%,13,14,2009-
14、2012,+,50%40%30%20%10%0%,+,35%28.3%20%15%5%0%,30%26.1%25.8%27.2%,21.3%6.7%6.7%6.9%3.6%3.8%3.6%4.1%,2009,2010,2011,20122012,1-12,1580%60%40%20%0%,+,1640%30%20%10%0%,+,17,2012,18,2012,40%30%20%10%0%,+,40%30%20%10%0%,+,2012,12,4074,/,4%,4%,5,11-12,12-02,12-04,12-06,12-08,12-10,12-12,Ja,n,Fe,b,M,ar,Ap,M
15、r,ay,Ju,n,Ju,l,Au,g,Se,p,Oc,Not,v,De,c,2013,2,1219,2013,2013,2%2012,20,2013,36003300300027002400210018001500,(,),(,),760073007000670064006100580055005200,2000150010005000,2011,2012,10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%,12,+5%,526,-4.4%,2013,3821,31,-7.7%,1432012,12,3,25,-96%,12318,536,-14%,-
16、11%,0.83,3,20092010,12,0.40.7,21,22,10008006004002000,30%-4%20%10%0%-10%-20%,10008006004002000,30%-11%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,11-8,11-12,12-4,12-8,12-12,11-8,11-12,12-4,12-8,12-12,6,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,10,11,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-0
17、9,12-10,12-11,12-12,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,20.5%,20.3%,13.3%,15%10.9%10.3%,9.5%,6.3%,10%5.8%,5.9%,2013,2,23,24,7006005004003002001000,-8%,40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,250200150100500,5%,25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%,11-8,11-12,12-4,12-8,12-12,11-8,11-12,12-4,12-8,12-12,25,26,20072010,20082011,20092012,2007201
18、0,20082011,20092012,5004003002001000,2.52.01.51.00.50.0,12,114,+3.5%,+0.8%,+28%,20%,27.6%12,30,-28%12,54,-40%,+3%-4.7%,+10%,-11%,12,36,-1%,-45%,+36%,3,27,28,2009-2012,30%20%10%0%,21.7%5.7%,30%24.1%20%10.4%12.8%10.5%5%0%,25%21.3%5.8%7.4%,2009,2010,2011,2012,7,11,-1,2,12,-0,2,12,-0,4,12,-0,6,12,-0,8,1
19、2,-1,0,12,-1,2,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,Ja,n,Fe,b,M,ar,Ap,Mr,ay,Ju,n,Ju,Aul,g,Se,p,Oc,Not,v,De,c,11-07,11-08,
20、11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,/,2013,2,29,30,35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%3140%30%20%10%0%,2012,26.2%9.42%,25%20%15%10%5%0%3240%30%20
21、%10%0%,2012,12.59%,2012,12,3509,+6.8%8,33,12,1000/,/,34,3%,/,24002200200018001600140012001000,(,),(,),45004300410039003700350033003100290027002500,120010008006004002000,2011,2012,15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%,8,2013,2,12,493311,-7%12,-8%,293,465154,-12%-21%+4.6%,110.94,35,36,600,15%,700,15%,50040030
22、02001000,-12%,10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%,6005004003002001000,-8%,10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%,11/8,11/12,12/4,12/8,12/12,11/8,11/12,12/4,12/8,12/12,37,38,400350300250200150100500,10%-7%5%0%-5%-10%-15%,250200150100500,60%50%40%30%-21%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,11/8,11/12,12/4,12/8,12/12,11/8,11/12,12/4,12/8,12/12,39,40,
23、20072010,20082011,20092012,20072010,20082011,20092012,4003002001000,2.52.01.51.00.50.0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 10 11 12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 10 11 12,9,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,1
24、2-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,1
25、1-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,20%,10%,23.0%,2013,2,12,129,-3%,-2%,-5%,12,12,28,62,-10%-15%,-8%-14%,-16%,2013,20%,41,42,2009-2012,30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,27.7%13.3%6.0%,30%25%22.7%15.0%15%4.4%5%0%2009,2010,23.2%19.6%19.5%4.9%5.7%2011,24.5%14.3%5.6%2012
26、,2012,1-12,43,44,40%,37.0%,20%,30%20%10%0%45,2012,14.8%7.7%,15%10%5%0%46,2012,10.4%9.1%2.6%,40%30%20%10%0%,LG,40%30%20%10%0%,LG,10,11,-1,2,12,-0,2,12,-0,4,12,-0,6,12,-0,8,12,-1,0,12,-1,2,11-05,11-06,11-07,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11
27、,12-12,11-10,11-12,Ja,n,Fe,b,M,ar,Ap,r,M,ay,Ju,n,Ju,l,Au,g,Se,p,Oc,t,No,v,De,c,12-10,12-12,11-8,12-2,12-4,12-6,12-8,/,/,2013,2,2012,12,3.6%0.1%,2129,1.8%,12,856,3%20122013,47180017501700165016001550,/40003500,48950900850800750,2011,2012,/,12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%,12,12,2012,12450.1,-6%,978,5%,11,528.4
28、,16.4%,11,12,7%,140.2,129%12,401,1,12,LED 3D,94.5%49.7%3,348,37.2%3,496,12,49,LCD,%,50,LCD,5004003002001000,YOY,YOY,+30.0+20.0+10.0+0.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0,40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,11,%,10-08,10-10,10-12,11-02,11-04,11-06,11-08,11-10,11-12,12-02,12-04,12-06,12-08,12-10,12-12,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-1
29、2,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,10-08,10-10,10-12,11-02,11-04,11-06,11-08,11-10,11-12,12-02,12-04,12-06,12-08,12-10,12-12,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,13-01,11-02,11-03,11-04,11-05,11-06,11-0
30、7,11-08,11-09,11-10,11-11,11-12,12-01,12-02,12-03,12-04,12-05,12-06,12-07,12-08,12-09,12-10,12-11,12-12,2013,2,51,LED,LED/,/3D,52,24-27,30-33,100806040200,12,94.549.737.284,3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000,40-4323%,5,44-49,8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,000,16%,2,2040,0%3%,20%20125%,2013,2013,1,53,32
31、32Open Cell39 LED4242LED46LED,21Oct2012$129$104$224$228$289$361,20Nov2012$130$106$225$228$289$361,19Dec2012$130$107$225$228$289$361,18 04Jan Feb2013 2013$127$126$104$103$222$220$224$222$284$282$356$354,-$1-$1-$2-$2-$2-$2,200150100500,3239LED46LED,32Open Cell42LED,400350300250200,DisplaySearchDisplay
32、Search,54,55,1086420,(,),25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%,2520151050,(,),50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%,Display Search,DisplaySearch,12,2013,2,2012,PE,10 x,2013,18x,56,PE,57,PB,40353025201510502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind,40353025201510502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2
33、010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind,58,PE,59,PB,3025201510502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind,3025201510502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind,13,06-01,07-01,08-01,09-01,10-01,11-01,12-01,13-01,08-06,08-12,09-06,09-12,10-06,10-12,11-06,
34、11-12,12-06,12-12,2013,2,60,PE,61,PB,201816141210864202006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind,201816141210864202006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind,PE,56,61,1 2008726x 6 18x2,6,PBPE PB,PE1.8x4.2x 1.2 5.5x 1.2 4.7x2006,6 14xPE PB,2008,6,1,2,2
35、013,62,PE,vs.,63,PE,vs.,20066040200,1Wind,100%50%0%-50%,2008252015105,6Wind,100.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%,14,2013,2,64,PE,65,PB,201816141210864202006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind,201816141210864202006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind,66,TCL,PE,
36、67,TCL,PB,543210,543210,2007-01,2008-01,2009-01,2010-01,2011-01,2012-01,2013-01,2007-01,2008-01,2009-01,2010-01,2011-01,2012-01,2013-01,Wind,Wind,1 2008 6,TCL,TCL,PEPB,PE,64,676 18x 13 54x,PB,0.6 2.7x 1.3x4.9xTCL PE/PB,TCL,2,TCL2009,PB,2.5x,15,2013,2,3025201510,68,PEvq,3025201510,69,PB,502006-01 200
37、7-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind,502006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01Wind,25,70,PE,40,71,PB,35,20151050,302520151050,2009-01,2010-01,2011-01,2012-01,2013-01,2009-01,2010-01,2011-01,2012-01,2013-01,Wind,Wind,4035302520151050,72,PE,4035302520151050,
38、73,PB,2010-12,2011-06,2011-12,2012-06,2012-12,2010-12,2011-06,2011-12,2012-06,2012-12,Wind,Wind,PEPB,68,73,1 2008,6,PE,11 32x 9,24x,PE/PBPBPB,PB2.04.9x2010,1.712,5.4x 1.4x5.0 x,PE,PE,1340 x2011 6,16,06-01,07-01,08-01,09-01,10-01,11-01,12-01,08-05,08-11,09-05,09-11,10-05,10-11,11-05,11-11,12-05,6,1,2
39、013,2,2 2008,15x20 x,2011,2011,2010,2010,742006,1,PE,vs.,752008,6,PE,vs.,PE,PE,6050403020100,Wind,A,100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%,302520151050,Wind,100%50%0%-50%-100%QFII,zzzzz,2013,1,8.3%,300,6.9%,+10.1%,+9.0%,+9.2%17,2013,2,2,300,2012,300,2012,12345,4.65.3-6.95.2-1.1,1.913.4-7.34.64.5,4.59.3-3.56.52.8,8.
40、523.9-11.03.47.2,-3.712.0-11.31.15.1,-4.716.7-10.42.26.1,-4.613.5-8.96.05.7,-2.78.1-0.4-0.65.6,-0.14.03.51.33.9,3.918.6-4.1-1.88.3,-8.36.7-4.4-4.16.2,-9.311.4-3.5-3.07.2,-9.28.2-2.00.76.8,6,-4.2,-7.9,-8.4,-8.8,-7.3,-4.3-10.9,-3.7,-4.2,-4.5,-3.1,-0.1,-6.6,7,-4.1,-9.0,-4.0,-12.0,-14.9,-12.1-14.5,-4.9,
41、0.2,-7.9,-10.8,-8.0-10.4,8910,-3.52.1-0.8,-1.42.92.4,-1.84.85.0,-2.18.3-1.6,2.4-0.7-2.5,-2.6-2.46.5,-4.4-4.7-1.5,2.10.73.2,1.72.75.8,1.56.1-0.8,5.9-2.9-1.7,0.9-4.57.3,-0.9-6.8-0.8,11,-2.9,-2.4,3.9,-1.3,-9.2,-12.6-16.9,0.6,6.8,1.6,-6.3,-9.6-14.0,12,15.5,15.5,14.3,13.1,21.0,15.2,20.5,0.1,-1.2,-2.4,5.5
42、,-0.2,5.0,2013,1,6.9,8.3,10.1,9.0,3.1,9.2,2.1,1.3,3.2,2.1,-3.8,2.3,-4.9,Wind,TTM,PE,15.1x,41%,24%2013,3,PE,TTM,A,300,Wind,25.766.812.223.015.1-41%24%,21.567.99.717.011.7-46%21%,31.372.111.830.916.8-46%42%,33.487.016.028.321.8-35%37%20068,40.180.316.934.126.1-35%55%2013,38.9106.115.033.031.0-20%107%2
43、5,22.354.210.819.113.5-39%26%,20.052.39.116.011.4-43%24%,4,PE,TTM,1.151.480.831.171.11-3%34%,0.971.510.670.920.87-10%28%,1.412.860.761.331.24-12%63%,1.502.351.001.551.617%62%,1.804.160.681.631.927%183%,1.753.460.801.832.2931%185%,Wind,2006,8,2013,2,5,16.8x,TTM PE-46%,11.7,21%,TTM PE,18,2013,2,5,TTME
44、PS,A,21.8x,TCL,PE,2010,2011 2012E 2013E 2014E,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,PEG,29.2013.689.1824.019.47,1.420.760.920.520.49,1.741.001.090.730.56,2.471.201.101.050.63,2.871.381.341.310.77,3.261.571.581.660.84,2118104619,171483317,121182315,101071812,9961411,0.720.840.641.041.18,STTCL,7.8912.9011.422.3
45、816.1014.847.2512.008.4010.187.579.838.00,0.430.510.640.050.800.320.780.640.280.530.570.390.33,0.170.581.290.120.880.920.660.750.350.620.600.550.34,0.560.831.080.101.001.000.610.720.360.450.650.530.31,0.641.061.250.151.221.180.700.820.460.620.700.650.33,0.761.281.430.171.431.350.850.970.530.760.750.
46、800.35,1825184820469193019132524,4622920181611162417131824,14161124161512172323121926,1212916131310151816111524,101081411119121613101223,0.720.742.591.591.041.181.251.751.642.261.631.3424.23,6.44,0.37,0.19,0.26,0.33,17,34,25,20,18.502.17,0.930.06,1.040.08,1.100.07,1.310.10,1.520.11,2034,1828,1730,14
47、22,1220,1.322.23,A,10.578.88,0.800.26,0.720.25,0.630.20,0.720.26,0.920.29,1334,1536,1744,1434,1131,1.727.00,8.06,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.64,17,17,14,13,A,3.506.43,0.070.08,0.010.11,0.150.14,0.170.18,5080,26558,2346,2136,12.184.21,0.930.51,0.800.17,0.870.20,1.020.23,1.170.26,138,1525,1421,1218,1016,1.131.63
48、,2013,2,5,19,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject sec
49、urities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125
50、,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is
