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1、Martin Yu,1,15 October 2012Fixed Income Researchhttp:/www.credit-Commodity TradeReport October 2012:Ironore volumes continue to flowCommodities Research,Research AnalystsRic Deverell+44 20 7883 2523ric.deverellcredit-+44 20 7883 2150martin.yucredit-Tom Kendall+44 20 7883 2432tom.kendallcredit-Marcus
2、 Garvey+44 20 7883 4787marcus.garveycredit-Exhibit 1:Chinese crude oil importsMillions of tonnes,seasonally adjusted,Crude oil and soybean imports also recoverThe first tranche of Chinese trade data for September was released over theweekend.We note that Chinas iron ore imports maintained the streng
3、thexhibited in August,while oil and soybean imports bounced back from theprevious months decline.Oil imports,however,remain below early 2012 levels.In summary,we note that1:Crude oil imports recovered from an 18.5%mom fall in August,bouncing back with a 16.2%mom increase(Exhibit 1).Nevertheless,they
4、 failed to regain the strength of early 2012.Iron ore imports were again strong,increasing by 0.4%mom fromAugusts already high level(Exhibit 2).Copper and copper product imports rose by 2.3%mom in September,maintaining their recent gradual uptick.Soybean imports surged back with a 31.1%mom increase
5、inSeptember,offsetting Augusts 21.9%mom decline,as lower pricesencouraged buying.Exhibit 2:Chinese iron ore&concentrate importsMillions of tonnes,seasonally adjusted,262422,Imports,Bouncing back from Augustsdip,but not to early 2012levels,8070,Imports,Back-to-backstrength inAugust andSeptember,2018,
6、6050,164014,1210,3020,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China General Customs Administration,Credit Suisse,Source:CEIC,China General Customs Administration,Credit Suisse,All discussion refers to seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise stated.ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND I
7、MPORTANT DISCLOSURES ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX.FOR OTHERIMPORTANT DISCLOSURES,PLEASE REFER TO https:/firesearchdisclosure.credit-.,CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH&ANALYTICS,BEYOND INFORMATIONClient-Driven Solutions,Insights,and Access,0,0,0,0,2,15 October 2012Exhibit 3:Summary of Trade Figure
8、sUnits as indicated below,Raw Figures,Year on Year Change,Seasonally adjusted,Year to date*,Coal,Units,July,August,September,July,August,September,July,August,September,2012,2011,%diff,Imports,Total CoalCoking CoalThermal Coal,Million tonsMillion tonsMillion tons,24.27003.925416.2899,20.44002.569714
9、.7133,20.44002.569714.7133,38.4%-3.2%20.8%,23.2%-21.8%10.6%,6.9%-34.0%-3.4%,22.22933.556115.4270,19.67912.581714.5246,19.67912.581714.5246,184.720034.1888116.7284,124.010030.380793.6250,49.0%12.5%24.7%,Exports,Total CoalIron Ore and Steel,Million tonsUnits,0.5000July,0.6500August,0.6500September,-45
10、.1%July,-48.0%August,-46.3%September,0.4987July,0.6139August,0.6139September,6.93002012,12.12002011,-42.8%diff,Imports,Iron Ore and ConcentratesSteel ProductsSteel Scrap,Million tonsMillion tonsMillion tons,57.87001.16000.4100,62.45001.20000.3900,65.01001.20000.3900,6.1%-6.5%-47.4%,5.7%-11.1%-25.0%,
11、7.3%-9.8%-44.3%,58.92231.09500.3793,63.74521.13520.3670,63.97541.12580.3670,552.340010.52003.6000,508.740011.96004.7800,8.6%-12.0%-24.7%,Exports,Iron Ore and ConcentratesSteel ProductsEnergy,Million tonsMillion tonsUnits,0.00004.3200July,0.00004.2400August,0.00005.1500September,-100.0%-2.7%July,-99.
12、8%1.2%August,0.0%22.3%September,0.00003.6745July,0.00003.7355August,0.00004.7687September,0.004340.98002012,0.002937.17002011,49.8%10.3%diff,Imports,Crude Oil PetroleumRefined Petroleum ProductsMiddle DistillatesLiquified Natural Gas,Million tonsMillion tonsMillion tonsMillion tons,21.83003.09000.54
13、551.3300,18.40002.24000.43421.0900,20.08003.42000.43420.0000,12.4%0.3%16.9%12.7%,-12.5%-34.3%-44.6%3.8%,-1.8%23.5%-39.6%0.0%,22.54042.71810.47641.1689,18.37142.36530.39590.9242,21.35093.88300.39590.0000,200.370028.96003.97809.0900,187.130030.30005.65947.4000,7.1%-4.4%-29.7%22.8%,Exports,Crude Oil Pe
14、troleumRefined Petroleum ProductsMiddle DistillatesScrap,Million tonsMillion tonsMillion tonsUnits,0.21001.77000.7705July,0.19002.11000.7950August,0.20002.06000.7950September,5.0%-22.4%5.4%July,58.3%-2.8%1.2%August,-39.4%-8.0%22.9%September,0.25551.58940.7616July,0.18012.12550.8017August,0.00002.170
15、80.8017September,1.890017.81005.75552012,1.960019.82006.70252011,-3.6%-10.1%-14.1%diff,Imports,Metal ScrapCopper ScrapAluminum ScrapBase Metals,Metric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsUnits,1,070,000430,000230,000July,1,080,000440,000250,000August,1,080,000440,000250,000September,-25.7%0.0%4.5%July,-1.8%15
16、.8%25.0%August,-19.4%4.8%13.6%September,918,912405,169196,586July,1,030,015399,148220,774August,1,030,015399,148220,774September,8,420,0003,090,0001,720,0002012,10,130,0003,430,0001,890,0002011,-16.9%-9.9%-9.0%diff,Imports,Copper&Copper ProductsCopper&AlloysCopper ore&concentratesAluminium&Al Produc
17、tsAluminium&AlloysNickel&AlloysZinc&AlloysLead&AlloysTin&Alloys,Metric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsMetric tons,366,548310,078570,00097,65152,89513,67248,2013,1003,215,355,856299,298690,000117,51373,57612,1832073,7863,083,394,837299,298690,000102,3
18、2073,57612,1832073,7863,083,19.5%28.7%26.7%38.7%214.4%-28.0%60.5%-18.0%271.7%,4.5%10.7%1.5%65.6%227.5%-27.9%-99.5%2.9%92.1%,3.8%-4.7%23.2%54.6%264.9%-38.2%-99.5%-25.4%-18.7%,377,712327,833611,03291,88754,52311,86638,6082,7393,028,381,235338,354717,493112,80863,13512,8142104,6383,364,390,059338,35471
19、7,493107,14663,13512,8142104,6383,364,3,619,1782,770,9634,640,000929,679480,38097,260330,36332,09620,486,2,728,9212,126,0814,650,000667,868223,181154,903353,27837,76011,787,32.6%30.3%-0.2%39.2%115.2%-37.2%-6.5%-15.0%73.8%,Exports,Copper&Copper Products,Metric tons,59,065,43,143,15.3%,3.2%,0.0%,51,61
20、1,39,605,543,833,499,547,8.9%,Copper&AlloysAluminium&ProductsAluminium&AlloysNickel&AlloysZinc&AlloysLead&AlloysTin&AlloysAgriculture,Metric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsMetric tonsUnits,12,527290,00054,0514,093300444178July,1,717280,00044,3042,285207820August,1,71744,3
21、042,285207820September,227.0%-25.6%-34.1%64.0%-85.4%-28.4%n/aJuly,266.1%-17.6%-28.8%-17.2%-94.6%-86.7%0.0%August,-34.2%0.0%-27.0%-2.1%-94.0%-1.2%0.0%September,7,890253,29941,6403,5923387081,731July,1,915252,72440,3332,1982061470August,1,91540,3332,1982061470September,206,9072,330,000440,48321,5386,9
22、242,2391,1992012,153,9822,600,000553,63628,27144,83211,3099742011,34.4%-10.4%-20.4%-23.8%-84.6%-80.2%23.1%diff,Imports,CornWheatSoybeanRiceSugarCotton,Thousand tonsThousand tonsThousand tonsThousand tonsThousand tonsThousand tons,721.60252.655,870.00226.31400.00410.00,598.98252.154,420.00241.12580.0
23、0310.00,598.98252.154,420.000.000.00310.00,318.0%132.9%9.7%315.2%53.8%156.3%,144.9%96.0%-2.0%312.8%38.1%47.6%,230.5%41.9%7.0%0.0%0.0%24.0%,628.04199.515,425.27493.72250.17455.13,272.69364.634,236.33506.56440.86341.82,272.69364.634,236.330.000.00341.82,3,726.002,698.4539,340.001,653.122,410.003,790.0
24、0,634.52970.3337,700.00475.981,200.001,940.00,487.2%178.1%4.4%247.3%100.8%95.4%,Exports,CornWheatSoybeanRiceSugarCotton,Thousand tonsThousand tonsThousand tonsThousand tonsThousand tonsThousand tons,4.3118.9320.0011.673.761.65,4.9826.4940.0010.732.521.39,4.9826.4940.0016.913.421.39,-57.0%6.3%100.0%-
25、3.6%-16.5%101.6%,-62.5%-13.9%300.0%-49.2%-34.7%26.6%,-51.2%-32.9%300.0%-38.8%-15.1%204.6%,4.4118.9427.6816.083.832.31,3.8724.8281.0618.032.560.87,3.8724.8281.0623.513.800.87,39.78173.49200.00237.3236.9311.60,90.69225.26160.00310.3848.0625.45,-56.1%-23.0%25.0%-23.5%-23.2%-54.4%,*Year to date figures
26、equate months with latest data to make both years comparable,based on raw figures.Source:the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service,CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseChina Commodity Trade Report October 2012:Iron ore volumes continue to flow,3,15 October 2012China Commodity Trade Report
27、Commodities ResearchCoal,Total Coal(millions of tonnes),Total Coal(millions of tonnes)seasonally adjusted,30,Exports,Impor ts,Net Imports,35,Exports,Impor ts,Net Imports,2520,3025,2015151010,50-5,50-5,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationC
28、oking Coal(millions of tonnes),Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseCoking Coal(millions of tonnes)seasonally adjusted,7.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0,Impor ts,7.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0,Impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:GTISThermal Coal(millions of to
29、nnes),Source:GTIS,Credit SuisseThermal Coal(millions of tonnes)seasonally adjusted,18.016.014.012.010.0,Impor ts,20.018.016.014.012.0,Impor ts,10.0,8.06.04.02.00.0,8.06.04.02.00.0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:GTISChina Commodity Trade Report October 2012:Iron ore volumes
30、continue to flow,Source:GTIS,Credit Suisse,4,15 October 2012China Commodity Trade ReportCommodities ResearchIron Ore and Steel,Iron Ore and Concentrates(millions of tonnes),Iron Ore and Concentrates(millions of tonnes)seasonally adjusted,80706050403020100,Impor ts,80706050403020100,Impor ts,2008,200
31、9,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationSteel Products(millions of tonnes),Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseSteel Products(millions of tonnes)seasonally adjusted,8.0,Exports,Impor ts,Net Imports,8.0,Exports,Impor ts,Net I
32、mports,6.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0,6.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationFerrous Waste&Scrap(millions of tonnes),Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseFerrous Waste&Scrap(millions of tonnes)seas
33、onally adjusted,2.01.61.20.80.40.0,Impor ts,2.01.61.20.80.40.0,Impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationChina Commodity Trade Report October 2012:Iron ore volumes continue to flow,Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credi
34、t Suisse,5,15 October 2012China Commodity Trade ReportCommodities ResearchCrude and Refined Petroleum,Crude Oil Petroleum(millions of tonnes),Crude Oil Petroleum(millions of tonnes)seasonally adjusted,30,Exports,Impor ts,25,Exports,Impor ts,25,20,2015151010,50,50,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2
35、010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationRefined Petroleum Products(millions of tonnes),Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseRefined Petroleum Products(millions of tonnes)seasonally adjusted,5.0,Exports,Impor ts,5.0,Exports,Impor ts,4.03.02.01.00.0,4.03.
36、02.01.00.0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationCrude Oil Petroleum(millions of tonnes)Net Imports,Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseRefined Petroleum Products(millions of tonnes)Net Imports,27,2007,2008,2009,20
37、10,2011,2012,3.5,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,25232119171513119,3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0,J,F,M,A,M,J,J,A,S,O,N,D,J,F,M,A,M,J,J,A,S,O,N,D,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationChina Commodity Trade Report October 2012:Iron ore volumes continue to flow,Source:CEIC,China Customs General
38、 Administration,Credit Suisse,6,15 October 2012China Commodity Trade ReportCommodities ResearchMiddle Distillates and LNG,Middle Distillates(millions of tonnes),Middle Distillates(millions of tonnes)seasonally adjusted,2.0,Exports,Impor ts,2.0,Exports,Impor ts,1.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0,1.81.61.
39、41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationLiquefied Natural Gas(millions of tonnes),Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseLiquefied Natural Gas(millions of tonnes)seasonally adjusted,1.81.61.41.21.
40、00.80.60.40.20.0,Impor ts,1.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0,Impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseMiddle Distillates(millions of tonnes)Net Imports,Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseLiquefied
41、Natural Gas(millions of tonnes)Net Imports,1.5,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,1.6,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,1.41.01.2,0.50.0,10.80.6,0.4-0.50.2,-1.0,0,J,F,M,A,M,J,J,A,S,O,N,D,J,F,M,A,M,J,J,A,S,O,N,D,Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseChina Commodity Trade Report October 2012
42、:Iron ore volumes continue to flow,Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit Suisse,7,15 October 2012China Commodity Trade ReportCommodities ResearchScrap,Total Metal Scrap(metric tonnes),Total Metal Scrap(metric tonnes)seasonally adjusted,2,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000500,0000,I
43、mpor ts,2,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000500,0000,Impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationCopper Scrap(metric tonnes),Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseCopper Scrap(metric tonnes)seasonally adjusted,700
44、,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000,Impor ts,700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000,Impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationAluminum Scrap(metric tonnes),Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit
45、 SuisseAluminum Scrap(metric tonnes)seasonally adjusted,400,000350,000300,000,Impor ts,350,000300,000250,000,Impor ts,250,000200,000200,000150,000150,000,100,00050,0000,100,00050,0000,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationChina Commodity Tr
46、ade Report October 2012:Iron ore volumes continue to flow,Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit Suisse,8,15 October 2012China Commodity Trade ReportCommodities ResearchCopper,Copper&Copper Products(metric tons),Copper&Copper Products(metric tons)seasonally adjusted,500,000,Exports,
47、Impor ts,Net Imports,500,000,Exports,Impor ts,Net Imports,400,000300,000200,000100,0000,400,000300,000200,000100,0000,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationUnwrought Copper&Alloys(metric tons),Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administratio
48、n,Credit SuisseUnwrought Copper&Alloys(metric tons)seasonally adjusted,500,000,Exports,Impor ts,Net Imports,500,000,Exports,Impor ts,Net Imports,400,000300,000200,000100,0000,400,000300,000200,000100,0000,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administrat
49、ionCopper Ores&Concentrates(metric tons),Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit SuisseCopper Ores&Concentrates(metric tons)seasonally adjusted,800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000,Impor ts,800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000,Impor ts,2008,2
50、009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,China Customs General AdministrationChina Commodity Trade Report October 2012:Iron ore volumes continue to flow,Source:CEIC,China Customs General Administration,Credit Suisse,9,15 October 2012China Commodity Trade ReportCommodities ResearchAlum
