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1、,Research Department28 January,2013B to H Conversion OpportunitiesB 转 H 投资机会31617SummaryB to H conversion has been a hot topic in recent days.We expect a higher chance to succeed in doing theconversion and providing more investment opportunities for those B share companies with better earningsoutloo
2、k in 2012 or 2013,larger market cap and deeper discounts to the same A share names.In addition,itwould also be easier for Shenzhen-listed B shares to do the conversion,as there are experiences from CIMCto learn from.Shareholder structure and valuation could also be factors to be considered when pick
3、ing thepotential candidates.Companies under sectors including communications equipment,health care,consumption-foods&beverage,jewelry,retailing,tourism and hotels may enjoy valuation boost on the HKmarket,based on comparison with their HK-listed peers valuation.In particular,there may be larger upsi
4、depotential for companies under consumptions subsectors than other sectors after the conversion.We expectmore B to H conversions to emerge for quality companies in the future,despite risks also exist after the recentrally of B share market.摘要B 转 H 近期成为热点话题。我们预计那些在 2012 年或 2013 年有更好盈利前景的、更大市值的以及相对同名
5、A股折价更高的 B 股公司转板 H 股成功的可能性更大，也会提供更多的投资机会。此外，由于可参考中集的经验，深圳上市的 B 股公司转板更加容易。在挑选可能转板公司的时候，股东结构和估值也是需要考虑的因素。基于香港上市同业估值比较，包括通信设备、医药以及消费-食品饮料、珠宝、零售、旅游和酒店行业内的公司可能将在香港市场上获得估值提升。尤其对于消费子行业的公司，转板以后或可获得更高的向上估值空间。尽管近期 B 股市场上涨以后有风险存在，我们预计未来会出现更多优质公司的 B 转 H。Chinese translation is attached.后附中文翻译,See the last page fo
6、r disclaimer,page 1 of 22,31617,Several ways have been discussed to conduct the reform of B share market.1)convert B shares to H shares.CIMCB(200039)has been the first company to finish the conversion;2)convert B shares to A shares for A+B dual listings or forcompanies that have only issued B shares
7、.As for the latter,B shares delist and relist in A share market.Media reportedthat Zhejiang Southeast Electric Power B(900949)may be planning the B to A conversion recently.(3)repurchase Bshares and reduce number of total shares by writing-off,like what several B share companies have been doing.Fore
8、xample,Chenming Paper B(200488),Luthai Textile B(200726),CSG Holding(200012)and Shanghai Diesel Engine(900920)have announced repurchase plans since 2012.Conversion of B to H has been a hot issue on the market recently.After a long period of weak performance,B sharemarket saw a strong rally since ear
9、ly Dec 2012,with Shenzhen and Shanghai B share index up 38.7%and 24.6%,respectively as of Jan 25,2013.The success of CIMC in converting its B share(200039)to H share(2039 HK)didntmuch boost market sentiment at first.The favorable performance of CIMCs H share and the bigger chance that more Bshare co
10、mpanies including China Vanke(200002)might follow B to H conversion as signaled by their trading suspendedon B share market became the more significant catalysts to drive up market optimism.Performance of domestic B share indices,850800,CIMC B(200039)suspended in SZexchange,for planning,CIMC announc
11、eddetailed schemes toconvert B shares to Hshares,CIMC listed on HK on Dec19.Vanke B(200002)suspended on Dec 26 andannounced B to H details inJan.Some other B shares,290270,siginificant issues,suspended,lifting,750700650600,expectations that morecompanies will convert Bshares to H sharesB share of CI
12、MCdelisted,250230210190,550500,shenzhen,shanghai(R),CIMC got approval fromChina and HK SFC,170150,Dec-11,Jan-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Apr-12,May-12,Jun-12,Jul-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Oct-12,Nov-12,Dec-12,Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan InternationalWe picked 22 companies from currently total 107 B shares whose earni
13、ngs outlook may improve in 2012 or 2013based on the available market consensus and may also meet the main-board listing requirements.In order to buildup a better presence for the financial innovation,conversion of B to H,those companies with better earnings outlook maytop on the list of the first ba
14、tch.They may get a higher possibility to get approval from regulators and may also win biggerinterests from overseas investors.The 22 companies listed below could achieve positive earnings growth in 2012 or 2013based on the available market consensus,indicating an improvement of earnings outlook.In
15、addition,listing requirementson the main board of HKEX also include certain thresholds on the earnings/revenue/cash flow(as below).Thesecompanies we picked have also met the listing requirements based on 2011 revenue and 2009-2011 net profit.,See the last page for disclaimer,page 2 of 22,31617,-,-,-
16、,-,-,B share companies with better earnings outlook,code,name,GICS subsector,market capof B share,HK$mnequivalent,revenue revenue revenue net profit net profit net profit earnings(RMB mn)(RMB mn)(RMB mn)(RMB mn)(RMB mn)(RMB mn)growth2010 A 2011 A 2012 F 2009 A 2010 A 2011 A 12/11,earningsgrowth13/12
17、,200002.SZ CHINA VANKE CO LTD-B200012.SZ CSG HOLDING CO LTD-B200024.SZ CHINA MERCHANTS PROPERTY D-B200028.SZ CHINA NATIONAL ACCORD MEDI-B200418.SZ WUXI LITTLE SWAN CO-B200488.SZ SHANDONG CHENMING PAPER-B200513.SZ LIVZON PHARMACEUTICAL GRP-B200521.SZ HEFEI MEILING CO LTD-B200539.SZ GUANGDONG ELECTRIC
18、 POWER-B,Real Estate Oper/DevelopBldg&Construct Prod-MiscReal Estate Oper/DevelopMedical-DrugsAppliancesPaper&Related ProductsMedical-DrugsAppliancesElectric-Generation,19,895.285,017.8010,478.921,824.951,744.162,006.993,169.41675.893,626.10,50,713.857,743.9413,782.4313,064.4311,202.3717,203.122,726
19、.728,227.0812,642.21,71,782.758,270.7315,111.3715,130.3410,975.6217,747.493,162.929,004.0014,620.14,95,831.097,742.9421,041.2918,110.736,986.7020,945.003,907.209,170.3320,777.32,5,329.74831.941,644.14192.71222.18835.95481.58301.201,165.35,7,283.131,455.212,011.40261.12506.921,163.34418.18325.85765.8
20、1,9,624.881,178.232,591.78330.31453.33608.27359.37106.61356.32,26.59%-75.29%28.95%41.99%-0.51%-67.88%26.66%71.74%230.32%,23.56%166.67%32.71%19.83%24.88%214.19%22.44%25.07%97.82%,200581.SZ WEIFU HIGH TECHNOLOGY GROU-B Auto/Trk Prts&Equip-Orig,3,384.39,5,371.21,5,898.11,4,945.68,448.22,1,340.29,1,204.
21、62,-27.40%,49.00%,200596.SZ ANHUI GUJING DISTILLERY CO-B,Beverages-Wine/Spirits,3,414.00,1,879.16,3,307.98,4,659.65,140.09,313.76,566.39,51.75%,42.69%,200625.SZ CHONGQING CHANGAN AUTOMOBI-B Auto-Cars/Light Trucks,5,249.56,33,072.12,26,551.85,28,578.91,1,078.46,2,026.99,967.94,19.20%,140.36%,200726.S
22、Z LUTHAI TEXTILE CO LTD-B200869.SZ YANTAI CHANGYU PIONEER-B900905.SH LAO FENG XIANG CO LTD-B900911.SH SHANGHAI JINQIAO EXPORT PR-B900923.SH SHANGHAI FRIENDSHIP GROUP-B900925.SH SHANGHAI MECHANICAL AND EL-B900933.SH HUAXIN CEMENT CO LTD-B900934.SH SH JINJIANG INTL HOTELS-B900936.SH INNER MONGOLIA EER
23、DUOSI RE-B900942.SH HUANGSHAN TOURISM DEVELOP-B,Textile-ApparelBeverages-Wine/SpiritsRetail-JewelryReal Estate Oper/DevelopRetail-Regnl Dept StoreMachinery-General IndustBldg Prod-Cement/AggregHotels&MotelsMetal-DiversifiedTravel Services,3,302.6311,310.164,339.462,185.301,887.271,972.444,832.341,96
24、4.633,541.441,808.66,5,025.624,982.9414,310.871,483.4231,052.4213,259.988,469.432,124.5411,732.961,444.99,6,078.666,027.5521,126.402,086.1847,015.1614,502.3812,638.042,116.0813,632.061,601.23,6,106.066,266.3225,609.371,462.5049,794.3516,940.7512,500.812,476.5312,601.501,807.09,570.221,127.33129.8036
25、0.13188.14465.74500.51280.99393.46159.84,739.091,434.22292.19529.58297.98665.72572.58380.61840.65230.99,848.531,907.21522.94452.591,391.80711.481,075.27320.48876.27256.13,-28.82%4.67%19.32%2.08%-15.58%17.36%-50.71%19.66%-44.65%8.21%,17.22%18.65%22.44%11.90%13.45%14.01%57.32%13.38%10.72%16.42%,Source
26、:WIND,Bloomberg,Guotai Junan InternationalNote:HKD/USD exchange rate=7.75Basic listing financial requirements for equities on the main board,Profit Attributable toShareholders,1.Profit TestAt least HK$50 million in the last 3financial years(with profits of atleast HK$20 million recorded in themost r
27、ecent year,and aggregateprofits of at least HK$30 millionrecorded in the 2 years before that),2.Market Cap/Revenue Test,3.Market Cap/Revenue/Cashflow Test,Market Cap,At least HK$200 million at the time,At least HK$4 billion at the time of,At least HK$2 billion at the time,RevenueCashflowSource:HKEX,
28、of listingNote:only one condition should be satisfied each time.,listingAt least HK$500 million for themost recent audited financial year,of listingAt least HK$500 million for themost recent audited financialyearPositive cashflow from operatingactivities of at least HK$100million in aggregate for th
29、e threepreceding financial years,Certain companies traded at deeper discounts to the same A share names may have higher chance to promotethe conversion plan.Totally 85 companies are A+B dual listings currently.As the success of CIMCs B to H conversioncould be considered as a milestone of finding a p
30、racticable direction for how to develop B share market,more companieswith good fundamentals may follow the B to H conversion.Therefore,there is chance that valuation of B share companieswill be boosted as most of them have been traded at deep discounts to their A share names,which was 39.5%for all A
31、+Bdual listings as of Jan 23 even after the recent rally.Shareholders of B share companies with deeper discounts could alsobe more inclined to approve the conversion.In addition,according to Hang Seng AH premium index,A shares were traded,See the last page for disclaimer,page 3 of 22,at a discount o
32、f 3.76%to their HK-listed shares on the same day on an overall basis.When we remove the financial sector(including banks,insurance and securities firms)that were traded at the largest discounts,the rest A share names weretraded at a moderate premium of 6.32%on the market cap weighted average basis,s
33、till indicating there could be upsidepotential for B shares valuation.Premium and discount of A+B dual listing names31617,code900901.SH900908.SH900913.SH900902.SH900910.SH900903.SH900906.SH900907.SH900909.SH900912.SH900911.SH900904.SH900919.SH200017.SZ900917.SH900946.SH900937.SH900905.SH900918.SH200
34、018.SZ900916.SH200020.SZ900955.SH200030.SZ900952.SH900947.SH200025.SZ900941.SH200058.SZ200037.SZ200055.SZ200413.SZ200553.SZ900940.SH200056.SZ200045.SZ200570.SZ900920.SH200505.SZ900938.SH200016.SZ200029.SZ900927.SH200012.SZ,nameINESA ELECTRON CO LTD-BSHANGHAI CHLOR-ALKALI CHEM-BSHANGHAI LIANHUA FIBRE
35、-BSHANGHAI SHIBEI HI-TECH CO-BSHANGHAI HIGHLY GROUP CO-BDAZHONG TRANSPORTATION GRP-BCHINA TEXTILE MACHINERY-BSHANGHAI DINGLI TECHNOLOGY-BDOUBLE COIN HOLDINGS LTD-BSHANGHAI WAIGAOQIAO FREE-BSHANGHAI JINQIAO EXPORT PR-BSHANGHAI WINGSUNG INVEST-BSHANGHAI DAJIANG FOOD GROU-BSHENZHEN CHINA BICYCLE CO-BSH
36、ANGHAI HAIXIN GROUP CO-BJINAN QINGQI MOTORCYCLE-BHUADIAN ENERGY CO LTD-BLAO FENG XIANG CO LTD-BSYP GLASS GROUP CO LTD-BSHENZHEN VICTOR ONWARD TEX-BJINSHAN DEVELOPMENT CONSTR-BSHENZHEN ZHONGHENG HUAFA-BSHANGHAI NINE DRAGON TOURI-BGUANGDONG SUNRISE HOLDINGS-BJINZHOU PORT CO LTD-BSHANGHAI ZHENHUA HEAVY
37、 IND-BSHENZHEN TELLUS HOLDING CO-BEASTERN COMMUNICATIONS CO-BSHENZHEN SEG CO LTD-BSHENZHEN NANSHAN POWER CO-BCHINA FANGDA GROUP CO LTD-BSHIJIAZHUANG BAOSHI ELEC-BHUBEI SANONDA CO LTD-BGREATTOWN HOLDINGS LTD-BSHENZHEN INTL ENTERPRISE-BSHENZHEN TEXTILE HLDG-BCHANGCHAI CO LTD-BSHANGHAI DIESEL ENGINE CO
38、-BHAINAN PEARL RIVER HLDGS-BTIANJIN MARINE SHIPPING CO-BKONKA GROUP CO LTD-BSHENZHEN SPECIAL ECON ZONE-BSHANGHAI MATERIAL TRADING-BCSG HOLDING CO LTD-B,GICSsubsectorElectronic Compo-MiscChemicals-DiversifiedReal Estate Oper/DevelopMachinery-General IndustMachinery-General IndustTransport-ServicesMac
39、hinery-General IndustReal Estate Oper/DevelopRubber-TiresReal Estate Oper/DevelopReal Estate Oper/DevelopMedical-DrugsPoultryBicycle ManufacturingTextile-ProductsMotorcycle/Motor ScooterElectric-GenerationRetail-JewelryBldg&Construct Prod-MiscTextile-ApparelBicycle ManufacturingCircuit BoardsTravel
40、ServicesReal Estate Mgmnt/ServicWhsing&Harbor Trans ServMachinery-Material HandlImport/ExportWireless EquipmentElectronic Compo-MiscElectric-GenerationBldg Prod-Doors&WindowsElectronic Compo-MiscAgricultural ChemicalsReal Estate Oper/DevelopReal Estate Oper/DevelopTextile-ProductsEngines-Internal Co
41、mbustEngines-Internal CombustReal Estate Oper/DevelopTransport-MarineAudio/Video ProductsReal Estate Oper/DevelopDistribution/WholesaleBldg&Construct Prod-Misc,market cap of B share,HK$mnequivalent891.261,748.72279.181,039.781,319.192,457.68607.90676.931,392.291,443.962,185.30454.74857.21387.451,635
42、.12522.27997.704,339.46805.03245.75718.15369.22997.43209.09706.245,292.06101.111,006.73717.20725.60977.62798.00869.40739.241,059.59271.76597.002,149.95143.59690.531,091.27367.20414.675,017.80,premium/discount toits A share-94.8%-92.6%-92.6%-92.4%-92.0%-91.9%-91.4%-90.5%-90.0%-87.6%-86.0%-82.0%-78.5%
43、-70.2%-69.7%-68.5%-67.8%-64.3%-63.6%-62.0%-62.2%-56.9%-57.3%-55.0%-54.7%-53.7%-53.1%-52.9%-52.2%-51.1%-49.3%-48.1%-47.6%-48.1%-47.1%-45.9%-45.9%-46.5%-43.4%-44.0%-41.8%-41.7%-41.8%-40.9%,See the last page for disclaimer,page 4 of 22,200725.SZ200613.SZ200019.SZ900926.SH200011.SZ900928.SH200530.SZ9009
44、24.SH,BOE TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LT-BHAINAN DADONGHAI TOURISM-BSHENZHEN SHENBAO INDUS CO-BSHANGHAI BAOSIGHT SOFTWARE-BSHENZHEN PROPS&RES DEV-BSHANGHAI AUTOMATION INSTR-BDALIAN REFRIGERATION CO-BSGSB GROUP CO LTD-B,Computers-Peripher EquipHotels&MotelsBeverages-Non-alcoholicEnterprise Software/ServReal
45、Estate Oper/DevelopIndustrial Automat/RobotMachinery-General IndustMachinery-General Indust,2,382.81244.64167.531,235.03399.55469.99652.05892.35,-40.2%-40.2%-39.8%-40.0%-38.0%-38.3%-36.8%-36.7%,31617,200761.SZ200625.SZ900922.SH200596.SZ200513.SZ900930.SH200541.SZ900915.SH200488.SZ200581.SZ200539.SZ9
46、00921.SH900914.SH200429.SZ200418.SZ200026.SZ200028.SZ900945.SH200521.SZ200024.SZ200022.SZ200726.SZ200550.SZ200869.SZ900925.SH900943.SH200002.SZ900936.SH900932.SH900942.SH900934.SH900923.SH900933.SH,BENGANG STEEL PLATES CO-BCHONGQING CHANGAN AUTOMOBI-BSHANGHAI SANMAO ENTERPRISE-BANHUI GUJING DISTILLE
47、RY CO-BLIVZON PHARMACEUTICAL GRP-BSHANGHAI POTEVIO CO LTD-BFOSHAN ELECTRICAL&LIGHT-BZHONGLU CO LTD-BSHANDONG CHENMING PAPER-BWEIFU HIGH TECHNOLOGY GROU-BGUANGDONG ELECTRIC POWER-BDANHUA CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGY-BSHANGHAI JINJIANG INTL-BGUANGDONG PROVINCIAL EXPR-BWUXI LITTLE SWAN CO-BFIYTA HOLDING-BCHINA
48、NATIONAL ACCORD MEDI-BHAINAN AIRLINES CO-BHEFEI MEILING CO LTD-BCHINA MERCHANTS PROPERTY D-BSHENZHEN CHIWAN WHARF HLDG-BLUTHAI TEXTILE CO LTD-BJIANGLING MOTORS CORP LTD-BYANTAI CHANGYU PIONEER-BSHANGHAI MECHANICAL AND EL-BSHANGHAI KAIKAI INDUS CO-BCHINA VANKE CO LTD-BINNER MONGOLIA EERDUOSI RE-BSHAN
49、GHAI LUJIAZUI FIN&TRAD-BHUANGSHAN TOURISM DEVELOP-BSH JINJIANG INTL HOTELS-BSHANGHAI FRIENDSHIP GROUP-BHUAXIN CEMENT CO LTD-B,Steel-ProducersAuto-Cars/Light TrucksTextile-ApparelBeverages-Wine/SpiritsMedical-DrugsTelecommunication EquipLighting Products&SysBicycle ManufacturingPaper&Related Products
50、Auto/Trk Prts&Equip-OrigElectric-GenerationPetrochemicalsTransport-ServicesPublic ThoroughfaresAppliancesRetail-JewelryMedical-DrugsAirlinesAppliancesReal Estate Oper/DevelopWhsing&Harbor Trans ServTextile-ApparelAuto-Med&Heavy Duty TrksBeverages-Wine/SpiritsMachinery-General IndustApparel Manufactu
