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1、Karl Shen,Top picks,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Sell,Sell,Sell,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,AsiaChinaPropertyProperty,IndustryChina Property,Date10 August 2012Industry UpdateTony TsangJason Ching,CFA,Taking a look at latest land marketsituationWeak land sales should lead to
2、less supply in 2013 and more policy fine-tuningWith continued tight financing for developers,falling home prices and risinguncertainties in global and domestic economies,developers appetite for newlandbank has remained weak,resulting in continued weak land markets in2012 YTD.So far this year,failed
3、auctions and other not transacted landaccounted for 25%and 85%of total land launched in terms of number of landparcels and total GFA,respectively.Land sales value,volume,transacted landprices and degree of participation in land sales deteriorated further in 2012.Residential land sales continue to be
4、 poor for local governmentsContinuing the weakness in residential land sales seen in 2011,total residentialland sales in 1H12 were down 45%,65%and 34%YoY for the 300 major cities,Tier-1 cities and key Tier-2 cities,respectively.The total residential land salesGFA in 1H12 were down 42%,55%and 19%for
5、the 300 major cities,Tier-1cities and key Tier-2 cities,respectively.The average achieved land prices in1H12 were down 5%,24%and 19%YoY for the 300 major cities,Tier-1 citiesand key Tier-2 cities,respectively.Although 2Q12 land sales slightly picked up,especially in Tier-1 cities as a few prime parc
6、els were released,mostdevelopers are still cautious about large-scale land acquisitions.Fewer land sales+slower construction starts=less supply in 2013In addition to the significant declines in land purchases by developers,we havealso seen a sharp slowdown in construction starts commodity residentia
7、lnew construction starts growth has been deteriorating each month in 2012(-13%YoY in 7M12,-30%YoY in July).As a result,we expect new homesupply to decline in 2013,which should provide a constructive pricing and lesscompetitive environment for developers with strong financial positions.New and signif
8、icant tightening policies unlikelyThe State Council recently dispatched eight inspection teams to 16 provinces,Research Analyst Research Analyst(+852)2203 6256(+852)2203 Research Associate(+852)2203 COLI(0688.HK),HKD18.08China Ovs Grand Oceans(0081.HK),HKD7.48China Resources Land(1109.HK),HKD15.54Lo
9、ngfor(0960.HK),HKD11.48Sunac(1918.HK),HKD3.38Companies FeaturedChina State Construction(3311.HK),HKD8.48Far East Global(0830.HK),HKD1.46Guangzhou R&F Prop(2777.HK),HKD10.02C C Land(1224.HK),HKD1.77Poly HK(0119.HK),HKD4.39Agile Property(3383.HK),HKD9.41Kaisa(1638.HK),HKD1.45E-House(EJ.N),USD5.48Count
10、ry Garden Holdings(2007.HK),HKD3.03Sino Ocean(3377.HK),HKD3.90Yanlord Land(YNLG.SI),SGD1.22,and municipalities to investigate local property markets.Some marketparticipants expect new tightening policies from the central government,afterthe State Council has reviewed the inspection teams report.We b
11、elieve that,with the stringent tightening measures already in place,investment andspeculation demand in the housing market have been kept to a relativelyminimal level in Chinas housing market already,and room for further,moresignificant measures is quite limited.Fundamentals improving further;adding
12、 more beta in China property sectorThe sector is currently trading at a 58%NAV discount,6.3x P/E and 0.9x P/B,all near or below the“-1SD”level of the historical ranges(since 2009,takingout the bull market data points in 2006-07).We expect more mean reversionsin the valuations of the China property s
13、tocks.In addition to long-term leaders,like COLI,CR Land,Longfor and COGO,we recommend picking up developerswith moderately high net gearing/cheap valuations,such as Sunac,R&F,Agile,Poly HK.For undervalued smaller-cap ideas,we like C C Land,E-House andKaisa.As a hedge,we recommend selling Country Ga
14、rden,Sino Ocean andYanlord.We derive our target prices from NAV and DCF.Risks:widespreadfinancial distress and sharp deteriorations in the global economy._Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfr
15、om local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect
16、 the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,10 August 2012PropertyChina PropertyFigure 1:Residential land sales 1H12&1H11,Land Sal
17、es(RMBbn),GFA Sold(msqm),Floor Price(RMB psm),%of Price Sold over Launched,CityBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenTianjinChongqingChengduHangzhouNanjingSuzhouDalianShenyangQingdaoXianChangshaWuhan300 CitiesTier-1 CitiesKey Tier-2 Cities,1H1112.031.02.37.118.120.816.223.817.930.422.921.416.95.96.131.471
18、352232,1H127.57.33.30.011.629.116.62.311.68.65.817.45.511.06.527.239518153,YoY-37%-76%41%-99%-36%40%2%-90%-35%-72%-75%-19%-67%86%7%-13%-45%-65%-34%,1H112.96.21.41.99.216.410.55.94.98.414.812.413.74.07.515.358913123,1H121.32.61.70.14.520.611.51.93.55.54.112.34.811.55.814.03426100,YoY-56%-59%22%-95%-5
19、1%26%10%-69%-28%-34%-72%-1%-65%192%-23%-8%-42%-55%-19%,1H114,1224,9731,6533,6711,9771,2741,5504,0143,6983,6411,5431,7341,2351,4988122,0561,2104,1981,890,1H125,8412,8551,9094082,5921,4131,4371,2653,3361,5621,4111,4201,1639541,1251,9381,1553,2081,534,YoY42%-43%16%-89%31%11%-7%-68%-10%-57%-9%-18%-6%-36
20、%38%-6%-5%-24%-19%,1H1118%25%0%0%18%14%7%45%6%44%0%17%10%29%23%0%19%11%18%,1H1220%4%3%0%0%3%11%3%4%6%0%2%2%2%5%1%5%7%3%,YoY3%-21%3%0%-18%-10%4%-42%-2%-39%0%-15%-8%-26%-19%1%-14%-4%-14%,Source:Soufun,Deutsche BankFigure 2:Residential land sales 1Q12&1Q11,Land Sales(RMBbn),GFA Sold(msqm),Floor Price(R
21、MB psm),%of Price Sold over Launched,CityBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenTianjinChongqingChengduHangzhouNanjingSuzhouDalianShenyangQingdaoXianChangshaWuhan300 CitiesTier-1 CitiesKey Tier-2 Cities,1Q113.623.71.2-10.810.77.417.39.822.715.712.612.14.73.019.142329146,1Q124.84.00.3-4.98.67.81.14.72.43.35
22、.21.55.63.323.8185972,YoY31%-83%-75%-54%-19%6%-94%-52%-89%-79%-59%-88%20%11%25%-56%-68%-50%,1Q110.84.60.7-5.68.56.33.92.15.77.96.09.72.54.49.2326672,1Q121.01.30.3-1.96.97.01.42.01.52.63.70.95.83.912.0167350,YoY32%-72%-50%-66%-19%11%-64%-5%-74%-67%-38%-91%132%-11%31%-49%-56%-31%,1Q114,8325,1881,7631,
23、9261,2461,1654,3704,7223,9721,9812,0901,2471,8736912,0811,2994,7512,027,1Q124,7963,0748772,6321,2511,1117652,3771,6371,2491,3921,6459688601,9751,1073,4381,455,YoY-1%-41%-50%-37%0%-5%-82%-50%-59%-37%-33%32%-48%25%-5%-15%-28%-28%,1Q1125%36%0%0%8%16%4%51%4%56%0%23%4%0%6%0%22%15%14%,1Q120%0%0%0%0%4%2%2%
24、1%9%0%3%0%1%4%1%3%0%2%,YoY-25%-36%0%0%-8%-11%-2%-50%-3%-47%0%-21%-3%1%-2%1%-19%-15%-12%,Source:Soufun,Deutsche Bank,Page2,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,10 August 2012PropertyChina PropertyFigure 3:Residential land sales 2Q12&2Q11,Land Sales(RMBbn),GFA Sold(msqm),Floor Price(RMB psm),%of Price Sold over
25、 Launched,CityBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenTianjinChongqingChengduHangzhouNanjingSuzhouDalianShenyangQingdaoXianChangshaWuhan300 CitiesTier-1 CitiesKey Tier-2 Cities,2Q118.47.31.17.17.410.28.96.68.17.87.28.84.91.23.012.32902486,2Q122.83.33.00.06.720.58.81.26.96.22.512.24.15.43.23.4211981,YoY-67%-
26、55%168%-99%-9%101%-1%-81%-15%-20%-65%39%-16%336%4%-72%-27%-62%-6%,2Q112.21.70.71.93.67.84.22.02.82.66.96.34.01.43.16.1263651,2Q120.31.31.40.12.613.74.50.41.54.01.58.53.95.71.92.0175350,YoY-86%-24%91%-95%-27%76%9%-79%-46%52%-79%35%-4%294%-38%-67%-33%-53%-1%,2Q113,8754,3841,5473,6712,0581,3042,1353,30
27、82,9282,9281,0401,3941,2068499842,0171,1013,6871,697,2Q129,3812,6302,1664082,5631,4941,9432,9974,5961,5341,6971,4321,0549391,6631,7181,2023,0081,612,YoY142%-40%40%-89%25%15%-9%-9%57%-48%63%3%-13%11%69%-15%9%-18%-5%,2Q1110%14%0%0%28%11%9%39%8%32%0%11%16%57%40%1%15%6%21%,2Q1240%7%7%0%0%2%20%5%7%2%0%2%
28、4%4%5%1%7%14%4%,YoY31%-6%7%0%-28%-9%11%-34%0%-30%0%-10%-12%-53%-35%0%-9%8%-17%,Source:Soufun,Deutsche BankFigure 4:Commercial land sales 1H12&1H11,Land Sales(RMBbn),GFA Sold(msqm),Floor Price(RMB psm),%of Price Sold over Launched,CityBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenTianjinChongqingChengduHangzhouNan
29、jingSuzhouDalianShenyangQingdaoXianChangshaWuhan300 CitiesTier-1 CitiesKey Tier-2 Cities,1H1116.714.53.21.97.03.02.312.62.912.51.25.55.70.98.33.21993665,1H125.17.33.02.34.64.52.08.32.96.74.59.07.62.80.21.81611855,YoY-69%-49%-8%23%-34%49%-13%-34%-2%-46%275%61%34%202%-97%-44%-19%-51%-16%,1H112.72.41.1
30、0.25.21.23.14.71.04.91.42.63.91.82.01.6152633,1H121.31.20.70.33.94.82.72.31.13.35.74.52.03.80.31.6134336,YoY-53%-50%-34%31%-25%305%-13%-52%15%-33%323%76%-50%115%-85%-1%-12%-46%8%,1H116,2195,9682,9728,8201,3412,5217512,6642,9572,5408772,1541,4795294,1422,0391,3095,6591,959,1H124,0566,0474,1458,2891,1
31、939307513,6282,5142,0537771,9703,9177417601,1571,2025,1101,525,YoY-35%1%39%-6%-11%-63%0%36%-15%-19%-11%-9%165%40%-82%-43%-8%-10%-22%,1H1141%21%0%12%3%8%4%36%42%20%0%2%14%0%56%0%22%19%15%,1H120%23%19%0%3%3%21%1%2%2%1%12%0%10%40%6%7%10%8%,YoY-41%2%19%-12%0%-5%17%-35%-40%-18%1%10%-14%10%-16%6%-15%-8%-7
32、%,Source:Soufun,Deutsche Bank,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Page3,10 August 2012PropertyChina PropertyFigure 5:Commercial land sales 1Q12&1Q11,Land Sales(RMBbn),GFA Sold(msqm),Floor Price(RMB psm),%of Price Sold over Launched,CityBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenTianjinChongqingChengduHangzhouNanjingSuz
33、houDalianShenyangQingdaoXianChangshaWuhan300 CitiesTier-1 CitiesKey Tier-2 Cities,1Q1110.410.11.61.43.41.21.06.30.98.70.11.84.50.38.30.91042437,1Q123.92.81.21.12.11.71.15.20.72.43.71.60.42.10.01.161922,YoY-63%-72%-24%-21%-38%37%11%-18%-19%-72%4479%-14%-92%662%-100%28%-41%-62%-41%,1Q111.61.90.40.22.1
34、0.31.92.70.23.30.21.12.50.32.00.975417,1Q121.00.60.50.12.11.51.31.80.11.53.80.80.53.10.00.754217,YoY-42%-71%48%-35%-1%430%-30%-34%-63%-54%2465%-30%-80%1139%-99%-24%-27%-47%-1%,1Q116,3335,3824,4578,2071,6144,4285282,3033,7112,6735361,6131,7921,0964,1939671,3975,8062,145,1Q124,0635,1102,3019,8861,0111
35、,1498382,8708,0861,6169581,9807256746011,6271,1364,2031,282,YoY-36%-5%-48%20%-37%-74%59%25%118%-40%79%23%-60%-38%-86%68%-19%-28%-40%,1Q1136%30%0%0%6%16%3%17%76%14%0%1%9%0%111%0%22%16%21%,1Q120%27%1%0%3%5%10%1%3%1%1%2%0%0%8%7%4%7%4%,YoY-36%-3%1%0%-3%-10%7%-16%-73%-13%1%1%-9%0%-104%7%-19%-9%-18%,Sourc
36、e:Soufun,Deutsche BankFigure 6:Commercial land sales 2Q12&2Q11,Land Sales(RMBbn),GFA Sold(msqm),Floor Price(RMB psm),%of Price Sold over Launched,CityBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenTianjinChongqingChengduHangzhouNanjingSuzhouDalianShenyangQingdaoXianChangshaWuhan300 CitiesTier-1 CitiesKey Tier-2 Ci
37、ties,2Q116.24.41.60.53.61.81.36.32.03.81.13.71.20.70.02.4951328,2Q121.24.51.81.22.52.80.93.12.14.30.87.47.30.70.20.7100933,YoY-80%4%8%154%-30%58%-30%-51%6%14%-31%98%494%11%4370%-70%5%-31%18%,2Q111.00.50.70.03.10.91.22.00.71.71.21.41.41.50.00.778216,2Q120.30.70.20.21.83.31.40.51.01.81.93.71.40.70.30.
38、980119,YoY-71%22%-73%299%-42%267%13%-76%40%7%56%160%7%-53%1022%31%3%-44%18%,2Q116,0367,9992,25311,3241,1531,9451,0883,1652,7162,2789202,5819024361943,4761,2245,4061,755,2Q124,0346,8299,0877,2211,4108356706,5012,0412,4274071,9685,0281,0297747911,2476,5731,749,YoY-33%-15%303%-36%22%-57%-38%105%-25%7%-
39、56%-24%458%136%299%-77%2%22%0%,2Q1147%12%0%25%0%0%4%56%7%26%0%3%19%0%1%0%21%21%10%,2Q120%18%37%0%3%0%31%1%0%2%0%22%0%19%73%5%10%14%13%,YoY-47%6%37%-25%3%0%27%-55%-7%-24%0%19%-18%19%71%5%-11%-7%3%,Source:Soufun,Deutsche Bank,Page4,Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,1Q03,3Q03,1Q04,3Q04,1Q05,3Q05,1Q06,3Q06,1Q0
40、7,3Q07,1Q08,3Q08,1Q09,3Q09,1Q10,3Q10,1Q11,3Q11,1Q12,1Q03,3Q03,1Q04,3Q04,1Q05,3Q05,1Q06,3Q06,1Q07,3Q07,1Q08,3Q08,1Q09,3Q09,1Q10,3Q10,1Q11,3Q11,1Q12,1Q03,3Q03,1Q04,3Q04,1Q05,3Q05,1Q06,3Q06,1Q07,3Q07,1Q08,3Q08,1Q09,3Q09,1Q10,3Q10,1Q11,3Q11,1Q12,1Q03,3Q03,1Q04,3Q04,1Q05,3Q05,1Q06,3Q06,1Q07,3Q07,1Q08,3Q0
41、8,1Q09,3Q09,1Q10,3Q10,1Q11,3Q11,1Q12,1Q03,3Q03,1Q04,3Q04,1Q05,3Q05,1Q06,3Q06,1Q07,3Q07,1Q08,3Q08,1Q09,3Q09,1Q10,3Q10,1Q11,3Q11,1Q12,1Q03,3Q03,1Q04,3Q04,1Q05,3Q05,1Q06,3Q06,1Q07,3Q07,1Q08,3Q08,1Q09,3Q09,1Q10,3Q10,1Q11,3Q11,1Q12,-,-,YoY,YoY,YoY,YoY,YoY,10 August 2012PropertyChina Property,Figure 7:Qua
42、rterly residential land floor area launched,Figure 8:Quarterly residential land floor area sold,600500400300200100,400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%,45040035030025020015010050,600%500%400%300%200%100%0%,Qtrly Land Floor Area Launched(msqm)Source:Soufun,Deutsche BankFigure 9:Quarterly residential
43、 land price launched,-100%,Qtrly Land Floor Area Sold(msqm)Source:Soufun,Deutsche BankFigure 10:Quarterly residential land price sold,-100%,1,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200-,80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%,2,5002,0001,5001,000500-,100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%,Qtrly Land Floor Price Launched(Rmb/sqm)Sou
44、rce:Soufun,Deutsche BankFigure 11:Quarterly residential land sales value,Qtrly Land Floor Price Sold(Rmb/sqm)Source:Soufun,Deutsche BankFigure 12:Quarterly residential land floor area/price sold,700600500400300200100-,Qtrly Land Sales Value(RMB bn),1000%800%600%400%200%0%-200%,4504003503002502001501
45、0050-,Qtrly Land Floor Area Sold(msqm),2,5002,0001,5001,0005000Qtrly Land Floor Price Sold(Rmb/sqm),Source:Soufun,Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong,Source:Soufun,Deutsche Bank,Page5,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-03,Jul-04,Jul-05,Jul-06,Jul-07,Jul-08,
46、Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-03,Jul-04,Jul-05,Jul-06,Jul-07,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jul-11,Jan-12,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-03,Jul-04,Jul-05,Jul-06,Jul-07,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jan-03,Jan-04
47、,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jul-03,Jul-04,Jul-05,Jul-06,Jul-07,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,1Q03,3Q03,1Q04,3Q04,1Q05,3Q05,1Q06,3Q06,1Q07,3Q07,1Q08,3Q08,1Q09,3Q09,1Q10,3Q10,1Q11,3Q11,1Q12,Jan-12,Jul-03,Jul-04,J
48、ul-05,Jul-06,Jul-07,Jul-08,Jul-09,Jul-10,Jul-11,YoY,-,-,YoY,YoY,10 August 2012PropertyChina Property,Figure 13:Monthly residential land floor area launched,Figure 14:Monthly residential land floor area sold,25020015010050-,Mthly Land Floor Area Launched(msqm),500%400%300%200%100%0%-100%,200180160140
49、12010080604020-,Mthly Land Floor Area Sold(msqm),3,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500-Mthly Land Floor Price Sold(Rmb/sqm),Source:Soufun,Deutsche BankFigure 15:Monthly residential land floor price launched,Source:Soufun,Deutsche BankFigure 16:Monthly residential land floor price sold,4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5
50、002,0001,5001,000500,200%150%100%50%0%-50%,3,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500,250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%,-100%Mthly Land Floor Price Launched(Rmb/sqm)Source:Soufun,Deutsche BankFigure 17:%of residential price sold over launched Qtrly90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Qtrly%of Price Sold over LaunchedSource:Soufu
