《WEIGAOGROUP(01066HK)：VALUATIONSTILLNOTSUPPORTEDSLOWINGGROWTHINITIATEWITH“SELL”0116.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《WEIGAOGROUP(01066HK)：VALUATIONSTILLNOTSUPPORTEDSLOWINGGROWTHINITIATEWITH“SELL”0116.ppt（38页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、CompanyReport,WeigaoGroup威高股份(01066HK),GTJAResearch国泰君安研究,23011,70.0,50.0,40.0,30.0,20.0,10.0,0.0,7.71,8.82,8.44,空间。尽管我们认为威高是一个优质且令人尊敬的企业,4,471,Company Report:Weigao Group(01066 HK)公司报告：威高股份(01066 HK),Johnson Sun 孙凤强+852 25097589,.hk16 January 2013Valuation Still Not Supported By Slowing Growth,Init
2、iate with“Sell”增速放缓，估值仍缺乏支撑，首次评级“卖出”,Weigao Group(the Company,WG)is the largest medical consumablesmanufacture in China.Conventional consumables(such as infusion sets,IVcatheters and syringes),Orthopeadic production and Dialysis business segmentsaccounted for 82.7%,13.5%and 3.8%of WGs operating prof
3、it in 1H2012.WG hasa 21.5%stake in stent associate Biosensors,which contributed 11%to WGs netprofit in 1H2012.Revenue growth to slow down sharply from 29.2%YoY in 2011 to 17.3%YoYin 2012,because of 1)slowing growth of conventional consumables due tocompetition,2)temporary impact from the liquidation
4、 of Medtronic-WG orthopaedicbusiness.Net profit CAGR is expected to be 12.9%in 2011-14,much lower thanthe CAGR of 26.6%for 2008-11,or 42.6%for 2006-11.EPS is estimated to be RMB0.226,0.265 and 0.303 for 2012-14.Our estimatesare lower than consensus due to 1)our concerns on price pressure due to futu
5、reprovincial tendering for high-value consumables,2)the fierce competition for,Rating:评级：6-18m TP 目标价:Share price 股价：Stock performance股价表现,SellInitial卖出(首次研究)HK$6.22HK$7.590,conventional consumables according to our analysis on SFDAs new licenses andchannel check,3)markets overestimated margins of t
6、he dialysis business,80.0,%of return,revenue of which is generally expected to be a major growth driver.60.0Target price of HK$6.22 is a sum up of valuation of WGs core profit(HK$5.6020 x 2013PE)and contribution of Biosensors(HK$0.62).The valuation reflects22.0 x 12 PE and 18.8x 13 PE,implying 18%do
7、wnside potential from the currentshare price.Although we are sure that WG is a respectable company withlong-term stability and growth,we think its slowing growth in 2012-14 does notsupport the current high valuation.“Sell”.威高是中国最大的医用耗材生产商。传统医用耗材（包括输液器、留置针及注射器等）、,骨科和透析业务分别占到其 2012 年上半年经营利润的 82.7%、13.
8、5%和 3.8%。此外，其持有 21.5%的心脏支架附属公司新加坡柏盛国际在上半年贡献的净利润,占其净利润的,(10.0)Jan-12,Apr-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,Jan-13,11%。预测其净利润增速会从 2011 年的 29.2%下滑至 2012 年的 17.3%，原因包括：1）由于竞,HSI Index,Weigao,争加剧，其传统耗材业务的增速放缓，2）美敦力-威高合资公司清盘带来的暂时影响。预测其 2011-14 净利润年复合增长率为 12.9%，将远低于 2008-11 的年复合增长率 26.6%或2006-11 的年复合增长率 42.6%。预测其 2012-14 年
9、每股盈利分别为 RMB0.226、0.265 和 0.303 元。我们的预测大幅低于,Change in Share Price股价变动Abs.%绝对变动%Rel.%to HS index相对恒指变动%,1M1 个月(9.3)(12.7),3M3 个月(26.3)(36.9),12 M12 个月22.20.5,市场预期，因为 1）我们更担心未来高值耗材省级招标中的降价压力，2）根据我们对 SFDA新批文的分析及市场调研，传统耗材业务的竞争加剧，3）市场可能高估了其透析业务的利润率，而此业务将是公司收入增长的主动力之一。目标价 6.22 港元，由两部分组成：1）威高的核心利润(HK$5.60 2
10、0 x 2013 PE)，2）来自柏盛的利润贡献(HK$0.62)，目标价相当于 22.0 x 12 PE 和 18.8x 13 PE 及 18%的下行尽管我们认为威高是一个优质且令人尊敬的企业，长期稳定并有增长潜力，但我们担心其 2012-14 年增速放缓，目前高的估值不再被有力支撑。“卖出”。,Avg.share price(HK$)平均股价（港元）Source:Bloomberg,Guot ai Junan International,Year End年结31/12/20122010A2011A2012F2013F2014F,Turnover收入(RMB m)2,4633,1813,72
11、94,7995,786,Net Profit股东净利(RMB m)7993,4621,0121,1871,356,EPS每股净利(RMB)0.1860.7840.2260.2650.303,EPS每股净利变动(%)30.5322.2-71.117.214.2,PER市盈率(x)34.87.926.822.920.0,BPS每股净资产(RMB)0.8421.8321.7971.9832.195,PBR市净率(x)9.04.14.23.83.5,DPS每股股息(RMB)0.0380.0590.0630.0800.091,Yield股息率(%)0.50.80.81.01.2,ROE净资产收益率(%)
12、22.042.212.613.413.8,Shares in issue(m)总股数(m),Major shareholder 大股东,Weigao Holdings 47.4%,Market cap.(HK$m)市值(HK$m)3 month average vol.3 个月平均成交股数(000)52 Weeks high/low(HK$)52 周高/低,33,97611,49011.380/6.300,Free float(%)自由流通比率(%)FY12 Net gearing(%)FY12 净负债/股东资金(%),34.0%Net Cash,Sourcethe Company,Guota
13、i Junan International.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 1 of 38,WeigaoGroup威高股份(01066HK),CompanyReport,16January,2013,23011,Table of ContentTable of Content.2Part I.Sector Background.3Part II.Company Structure.5Part III.Company Background and Culture.7Part IV.Business.9Overview.91.Conventional
14、Consumables Segment:Growth Slowing Down.101)Infusion sets.102)IV catheters.143)Syringes.154)Pre-filled Syringes.165)Blood bags.176)Blood sampling products.182.Orthopaedics:Market Rebuilding After Breakup with Medtronic.19The Medtronic-WG JV.19Products.20Summary of WGs orthopaedic business.223.WG Blo
15、od(dialysis segment):New Growth Driver.22Dialysis industry overview.22Dialysis machines:manufacturing&trading.24Dialyzers.25Other business of WG Blood.274.Stake in Biosensors International Group(BIG SP).28Part V.Financials.32Part VI.Valuation and Rating.35,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 2 of
16、38,WeigaoGroup威高股份(01066HK),CompanyReport,16January,2013,Part I.Sector BackgroundChinas pharmaceutical industry has been growing fast in recent years.According to National Bureau of Statistics ofChina,total revenue of Chinas pharmaceutical industry grew from RMB321 bn in 2004 to RMB1,452 bn in 2011,
17、representinga CAGR of 24.0%,and total industry profit grew even faster to RMB149 bn in 2011 by CAGR of 27.1%(Figure-1).23011It is expected that the fast growth was due to the following factors which will continue driving the sustainable industrygrowth in the long run:1)increasing disposable income a
18、nd health awareness,2)increasing urbanization,3)aging populationand increasing prevalence of chronic health problems,4)governments initiatives,especially increasing government spendingrelated to healthcare reform.,Figure-1:Chinas pharmaceutical industry growth,Figure-2:Chinas medical consumables sub
19、sector growth,60.050.0,51.1,Accumulative Revenue YoY%Accumulative Profit YoY%,55.050.045.0,46.3,51.4,49.1,49.6,Accumulative Revenue YoY%Accumulative Profit YoY%,40.030.020.010.0,17.49.3,26.520.5,17.09.6,24.6,29.125.8,25.321.3,29.826.5,23.529.4,19.316.8,40.035.030.025.020.015.0,30.028.4,35.5,41.2,32.
20、1,34.0,28.9,37.2,27.8,37.8,39.4,41.6,19.0,29.0,0.0,10.0,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Sources:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Note：2012 data is as of Jan-Oct.,Sources:National Bureau of Statistics of China,
21、Guotai Junan International.Note：2012 data is as of Jan-Oct.,Medical consumables sub-sector accounts for 7%of Chinas pharmaceutical industry in both revenue and profit(Figure-3),with an annual size of RMB 92.1 bn and RMB0.9 bn in 2011,respectively.This sub-sector has been growing evenmuch faster than
22、 the total pharmaceutical industry growth,with CAGR of 36.1%in total revenue and 42.9%in total profit in2004-2011.,Figure-3:Chinas pharmaceutical industry revenue breakdownMedical,Figure-4:Chinas pharmaceutical industry profit breakdownMedical,consumables6.8%10.9%,20.5%,Chemical API,14.3%,consumable
23、s6.9%,14.5%,Chemical API,Chemical finished drugsProcessed TCM MaterialsFinished TCM Medicines,Chemical finished drugsProcessed TCM MaterialsFinished TCM Medicines,24.6%,31.3%,BiopharmaceuticalsMedical consumables,25.7%,34.4%,BiopharmaceuticalsMedical consumables,6.0%Sources:National Bureau of Statis
24、tics of China,Guotai Junan International.Note：The breakdown is based on data of Jan-Oct,2012.,4.3%Sources:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Note：The breakdown is based on data of Jan-Oct,2012.,We think the faster growth of medical consumables is attributable to 1)deve
25、lopment of new technologies for medicalconsumables is relatively faster than new drug development,2)in the past years,NDRC has cut drug prices for many times,but has not regulate too much on medical consumables,3)medicine prices are lowered by provincial tendering,but medicalconsumables are still no
26、t wildly purchased by such fierce tendering.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 3 of 38,2011-02,2011-03,2011-04,2011-05,2011-06,2011-07,2011-08,2011-09,2011-10,2011-11,2011-12,2012-01,2012-02,2012-03,2012-04,2012-05,2012-06,2012-07,2012-08,2012-09,2011-01,2011-02,2011-03,2011-04,2011-05,2011-06,2
27、011-07,2011-08,2011-09,2011-10,2011-11,2011-12,2012-01,2012-02,2012-03,2012-04,2012-05,2012-06,2012-07,2012-08,2012-09,2012-10,WeigaoGroup威高股份(01066HK),2012-10,CompanyReport,16January,2013,17.4,17.8 18.3,Growth is slowing down.In Jan-Oct 2012,Chinas pharmaceutical industry revenue and profit grew by
28、 16.8%YoY and19.3%YoY,much slower than the historical industry growth;revenue and profit of medical consumable subsector grew by19.0%YoY and 29.0%YoY,down from the growth of 39.4%and 41.6%YoY in 2011(Figure-5,6),respectively.Reasonsaffecting the growth include 1)more restrict regulations on product
29、qualities affect small companies,2)expansion of newproduction capacities make competition fiercer than before,3)government started medical cost control.,Figure-5:Chinas pharmaceutical industry growth in 2011-12,Figure-6:Chinas medical consumables subsector growth in 2011-12,35.0023011,55.00,51.0,Acc
30、umulative Revenue YoY%,30.00,27.7 27.8,28.9 29.3,30.0 30.0,30.7 30.2 30.3,29.7 29.4,Accumulative Revenue YoY%Accumulative Profit YoY%,50.0045.00,48.6,45.8,47.1,41.8,43.1,41.6,Accumulative Profit YoY%,25.0020.0015.00,20.7,22.3,19.6 19.5,21.7,20.7 20.4 21.2,22.3,20.2,23.5,21.3,23.1,20.5 20.119.1 19.1
31、19.1 19.5 19.317.1 17.4 16.815.8,40.0035.0030.0025.0020.0015.00,41.833.531.638.337.2,39.440.4,42.540.3,38.738.939.938.7 39.1 39.4,39.030.724.725.5,34.230.222.422.5,27.819.7,28.629.026.427.418.418.718.819.0,14.410.00,10.00,11.5,Sources:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International
32、.,Sources:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.,We think the current healthcare reform will affect the profitability of healthcare industry in 2013-14.Policy trends tochange the current benefit-driven value chain of the industry:1)public hospitals depend largely on drug
33、sales,2)doctors arelargely driven by kinds of briberies from drug and consumables manufacturers.A thorough reform is directly driven by deficitpressures of medical insurance funds,including 1)urban employees medical insurance,2)urban residents medicalinsurance,and 3)the new rural co-operative medica
34、l insurance.Medical consumables sub-sector is also subject to negative influences.Although prices of medical consumables havebeen less regulated,or been affected by tendering,we think its growth not free of potential policy risks.1),high-value medicalconsumables,including heart stents and orthopaedi
35、c products,will be subjected to provincial tendering since 2013,accordingto the requirement of China Ministry of Health.2),regulations on the price mark-ups of distributors will affect the profitability ofthe whole supply chain.3),standardized diagnosis and treatments are further promoted by clinica
36、l pathways（临床路径）,which will be gradually launched soon for most major diseases,and over-treatment(most popular for uses of heart stent,forexample)will be controlled.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 4 of 38,16January,2013,CompanyReport,WeigaoGroup威高股份(01066HK),23011,th,Part II.Company Structure
37、WG(01066 HK)is the largest medical consumables manufacturer in China.It has three major business segments:1)conventional consumables,2)Orthopaedic business by WG Orthopaedic and a JV with Medtronic(MDT US),and 3)Dialyzerand dialysis machines via WG Blood and two JVs.WG also conducts stent business v
38、ia its associate Biosensors(BIG SP).Figure-7:Major subsidiaries and associates of WGSources:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Note:the Medtronic-WG Orthopaedic JV will stop business in 2012 year end,according to WGs announcement.WG Group has 47.4%stake in WG as its controlling shareholder.Besid
39、es WG,WG Group also has several othersubsidiaries for both medical business and non-medical business.According to the website of WG Group,WG Group hasabout 16,000 employees and total assets of RMB20 billion in 2011.Its revenue and Profit Before Tax(利税)was aboutRMB13.1 bn and RMB3 bn in 2011,respecti
40、vely.Accordingly,WG accounts for less than 50%of WG Groups total businessscales in employees,assets and revenue(Note:some JVs and associates are not consolidated in WGs official financialreports,but they may be consolidated in WG Groups financials for media issues).WG Group is one of the largest com
41、panies in Weihai.According to Weihai State Administration of Taxation,8 majorsubsidiaries of WG Group are ranked top 100 companies in Weihai by Taxation,and the total taxation of these 8 subsidiariesaccounts for 5.4%of Weihais total taxation received by the State Administration of Taxation in 2011.A
42、s a result,WG Grouphas lots of connections with the local government.Especially,Mr.Chen Xueli,founder and the largest shareholder of WG,Group,was elected to be the 18,CPC delegate(anther delegate of Weihai was Mr.Sun Shutao,Secretary of Weihai,Municipal Party committee).Figure-8:Shareholder structur
43、e of WG and major subsidiaries of WG GroupSources:WG Group,Guotai Junan International.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 5 of 38,WeigaoGroup威高股份(01066HK),CompanyReport,16January,2013,2,11,6,97,Figure-9:Business size of WG Groups listed and non-listed business100%90%80%70%,23011,60%50%40%30%20%10
44、%0%,Non-listed BusinessListed Business,Employees,Revenue,Profit Before Tax,Assets,Numbers of,ProductsSource:WG Group,Guotai Junan International.Note:Some JVs and associates are not consolidated in WGs official financial reports,but may be consolidated in WG Groups financials for media issues.Table-1
45、:Rank of WG Groups major members by taxation in Weihai City in 2011.,Rank in Weihai CityListed business,WG(01066 HK),Chinese Names山东威高集团医用高分子制品股份有限公司,Total Taxation(RMB mn)257.79,296369,WG OrthopaedicWG BloodJierui MedicalMedtronic-WG JVJW Medical,山东威高骨科材料有限公司威海威高血液净化制品有限公司威海洁瑞医用制品有限公司美敦力威高骨科器械有限公司山
46、东吉威医疗制品有限公司,35.1318.2515.3188.66142.24,Non-listed Medical business,Non-listed non-medical business,WG Pharmaceuticals,山东威高药业有限公司,9.78,39,WG PropertySubtotalWeihai Citys total taxation,威海市威高房地产开发有限公司,27.81594.9710,963,Source:Weihai State Administration of Taxation.Figure-10:Tax paid to Weihai State A
47、dministration of Taxation by WG Groups major subsidiaries in 2011Sources:Top 100 Companies in Weihai by Taxation(Weihai State Administration of Taxation),Guotai Junan International.Note:1)WG Orthopaedic,WG Blood,Jierui Medical are all WG(01066 HK)s subsidiaries;JW Medical has been disposed to Biosen
48、sors(B20 SG),an associateof WG(01066 HK)in 2011;Medtronic-WG JV is a JV of WG(01066 HK).WG Pharmaceuticals and WG Property are two subsidiaries of WG Group.2)Taxation data of WG Groups other subsidiaries are not disclosed because they are not in the list of“Top 100 Companies in Weihai by Taxation”in
49、 2011.3)Note:the taxation included Value-added Tax which is not included in its financial results,4)WG also pays Value-added Tax in other cities via its sales branch companies,but the amount is not included above.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 6 of 38,16January,2013,CompanyReport,WeigaoGroup
50、威高股份(01066HK),23011,Part III.Company Background and CultureWG Group was primarily founded in 1988 as a collectively-owned social enterprise(集体所有制福利企业),under thename of Shandong Weihai Medical Polymer Equipment Factory(山东省威海医用高分子器械厂).Its business scope was theproduction and sales of single-use steril
