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1、,研究员,Phillip Securities(Hong Kong)Ltd,2012 年中国内地房地产行业回顾,Phillip Securities Research25 January 2013,Market,Stock Exchange Hong Kong,SectorReuters,Property Sector,增持,Bloomberg投資概述2012 年中央政府在確定“樓市調控不放鬆”的主基調下，適度放鬆了對房地産行業的管控，以滿足强勁依舊的購房需求以及國民經濟增長的需要。其中地産政策微調、降息以及存款準備金率下調、閑置土地定義變寬是值得投資者注意的政策。此外，政府政策體現在物業稅的
2、準備工作、規範房地産開發環節以及加强對于福利房的監管等方面。而市場層面需要著重關注的年度數據和結論包括：投資 2012 年，全國房地産開發投資人民幣 7.2 萬億，同比增長 16.2%，較 2011年回落 11.9 個百分點。其中，住宅投資 4.9 萬億，增長 11.4%。2012 年，房地産企業土地購置面積 3.57 億平方米，同比下降 20%。土地成交價款 0.74 萬億，同比下降 16.7%，降幅較 2011 年擴大 6.4 個百分點。銷售 2012 年全國商品房銷售面積 11.1 億平方米，同比 2011 年增長 1.8%，實現銷售額 6.45 萬億，同比增長 10%。其中住宅銷售面積
3、和銷售額分別同比增長 2%和 11%。截止 2012 年末，全國商品房庫存面積 3.65 億平方米，較 2011 年末上升 0.78 億平方米。房價 2012 年全國 70 個大中城市中，房價環比上漲的城市個數從 1 月的 0 個到12 月的 54 個，以及房價環比下跌的城市個數從 1 月的 48 個到 12 月的 8 個。我們的基本結論：2012 年全國房價穩中有升，但升幅有限，其中下半年的房價普遍上漲趨勢較爲明顯。2012 年，受益于調控政策轉向溫和以及樓市復蘇，內地房地産行業成爲 2012 年香港股市的明星板塊。我們跟踪的 20 家核心內房股在 2012 年股價全部實現上漲，平均股價回報
4、率爲 109%，其中漲幅超過 100%的公司達 9 家。我們覆蓋的 20 家核心內房股中漲幅最大的五家公司是綠城中國、融創中國、合生創展、合景泰富和世茂房地産，漲幅最小的五家公司是遠洋地産、雅居樂地産、路勁基建、碧桂園和恒大地産。通過對表現最突出的內房股公司的研究，我們發現銷售增速最快的公司表現更爲出色，如融創中國、綠城中國、世茂房地産、中海外宏洋四家銷售同比增速超過50%的公司的股價漲幅均超過 100%。而財務杠杆率較高的內房股公司的表現也尤爲出色。由此可見，當行業景氣度高企時，銷售現金流以及財務杠杆較高的房地産公司陈耕,Tel:+86 21 63512937-107Fax:+86 21 6
5、0911155,的股價表現更好。2013 年儘管我們難以期望 2012 年的股價盛宴再現，但融創中國、建業地産以及中海外宏洋等優質內房股仍然值得我們期待。,Email:Web:.hk政策2012 年中央政府在確定“樓市調控不放鬆”的主基調下，適度放鬆了對房地産行業的管控，以滿足强勁依舊的購房需求以及國民經濟增長的需要。詳見如下幾方面：地方政策微調2011 年年底以來，佛山、蕪湖、上海、杭州、南京等多個城市陸續調整了相關購房政策，這些微調主要從放寬住房公積金、貸款額度和稅費優惠入手，鼓勵首套購房。其中除上海、蕪湖、成都、佛山的政策觸碰調控底綫被叫停外，其餘城市微調均被默許。降息以及存款準備金率下
6、調2012 年，央行分別兩次降息 0.25 個百分點以及先後兩次下調存款準備金率 0.5,n-,0,Ap9,r-0,9,Ju,l-0,Oc9,t-0,Ja9,n-,1,Ap0,r-1,Ju0,l-1,Oc0,t-1,Ja0,n-,1,Ap1,r-1,Ju1,l-1,Oc1,t-1,Ja1,n-,1,Ap2,r-1,Ju2,l-1,Oc2,t-1,2,Ja,China Property Sector Report in 2012,January 25,2013,個百分點。“閑置土地”定義變寬7 月 1 日起，國土資源部新修訂的閑置土地處置辦法正式實施，辦法中明確了閑置土地定義：超過合同約定的動工
7、開發日期滿一年未動工開發、已動工但開發建設用地面積占應動工總面積不足三分之一、或已投資額占總投資額不足 25%，中止開發建設滿一年的國有建設用地，都被認定爲閑置土地。此外，政府政策體現在物業稅的準備工作、規範房地産開發環節以及加强對于福利房的監管等方面。總而言之，政府的調控政策不是 2012 年房地産市場的主角，而更多地體現在房地産市場的基礎工作方面，這對于 2012 年的樓市的復蘇起到積極作用。投資2012 年，全國房地産開發投資人民幣 7.2 萬億，同比增長 16.2%，較 2011 年回落 11.9 個百分點。其中，住宅投資 4.9 萬億，增長 11.4%。圖 1，住宅投資增速回落趨勢企
8、穩,6,000,0005,000,000,RMB Million,住宅累计投资,同比增速,45.00%40.00%35.00%,4,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,0000,30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%,來源，CEIC 和輝立證券此外，2012 年，房地産企業土地購置面積 3.57 億平方米，同比下降 20%。土地成交價款 0.74 萬億，同比下降 16.7%，降幅較 2011 年擴大 6.4 個百分點。圖 2，2012 年房地産企業主要資金來源同比增速21.30%18.20%13.20%11.70%,国内开发贷
9、款,企业自筹资金,定金及预收款,个人按揭贷款,來源，CEIC 和輝立證券2,9,De,c-,09,M,ar,-1,0,Ju,n-,10,Se,p-,10,De,c-,10,M,ar,-1,1,M,May-12,Oct-12,Mar-12,Nov-12,Aug-12,Apr-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Jul-12,Dec-12,Feb-12,Sep-12,1,De,c-,11,M,ar,-1,2,Ju,n-,12,Se,p-,12,De,c-,12,ar,-0,9,n-,0,Se,p-,0,Se,p-,1,Ju,Ju,n-,11,9,China Property Sector Repor
10、t in 2012,January 25,2013,2012 年，房地産開發企業到位資金 9.65 萬億，同比增長 12.7%。其中，國內貸款 1.48 萬億，同比增長 13.2%，利用外資 402 億元，下降 49%，自籌資金 3.9 萬億，同比增長 11.7%；其他資金 4.23 萬億，同比增長 14.7%。在其他資金中，定金及預收款 2.66 萬億，同比增長 18.2%；個人按揭貸款 1.05 萬億，同比增長 21.3%。圖 3，新開工數據探底回升80.00%60.00%40.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%,-40.00%,新开工面积增速,在建面积增速,竣工面积增速,來源，C
11、EIC 和輝立證券銷售2012 年全國商品房銷售面積 11.1 億平方米，同比 2011 年增長 1.8%，實現銷售額 6.45 萬億，同比增長 10%。其中住宅銷售面積和銷售額分別同比增長 2%和 11%。截止 2012 年末，全國商品房庫存面積 3.65 億平方米，較 2011 年末上升 0.78億平方米。其中，住宅待售面積比 11 月末增加 2166 萬平方米，辦公樓待售面積增加 122 萬平方米，商業營業用房待售面積增加 348 萬平方米。圖 4，2012 年全國住宅銷售額累計增速圖示10.4%10.0%6.6%,2.3%,3.3%,-1.1%-6.5%-10.6%-13.5%-17.
12、5%-24.7%-24.7%來源，CEIC 和輝立證券房價2012 年 12 月份，70 個大中城市中，新建商品住宅價格同比上漲的城市有 40個，持平的城市有 4 個，下降的城市有 26 個。其中，北京新房價格同比升 1.6%，上海同比持平。此外，圖 5 顯示，全國 70 個大中城市中，房價環比上漲的城市個數從1 月的 0 個到 12 月的 54 個，以及房價環比下跌的城市個數從 1 月的 48 個到 12 月的8 個。3,China Property Sector Report in 2012,January 25,2013,通過以上數據，我們基本可以得出對 2012 年房價的基本結論：20
13、12 年全國房價穩中有升，但升幅有限，其中下半年的房價普遍上漲趨勢較爲明顯。圖 5，70 個大中城市房價環比變動城市數量變化圖示60,50403020100,房价环比上涨城市个数,房价环比持平城市个数,房价环比下跌城市个数,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,來源，輝立證券公司2012 年，受益于調控政策轉向溫和以及樓市復蘇，內地房地産行業成爲 2012 年香港股市的明星板塊。我們跟踪的 20 家核心內房股在 2012 年股價全部實現上漲，平均股價回報率爲 109%，其中漲幅超過 100%的公司達 9 家。我們覆蓋的 20 家核心內房
14、股中漲幅最大的五家公司是綠城中國、融創中國、合生創展、合景泰富和世茂房地産，漲幅最小的五家公司是遠洋地産、雅居樂地産、路勁基建、碧桂園和恒大地産。通過對表現最突出的內房股公司的研究，我們發現銷售增速最快的公司表現更爲出色，如融創中國、綠城中國、世茂房地産、中海外宏洋四家銷售同比增速超過50%的公司的股價漲幅均超過 100%。而財務杠杆率較高的內房股公司的表現也尤爲出色。由此可見，當行業景氣度高企時，銷售現金流以及財務杠杆較高的房地産公司的股價表現更好。2013 年儘管我們難以期望 2012 年的股價盛宴再現，但融創中國、建業地産以及中海外宏洋等優質內房股仍然值得我們期待。圖 6，核心覆蓋公司的
15、 2012 年銷售額及同比增速4,China Property Sector Report in 2012,人民币 亿,同比增长,January 25,2013,中国海外恒大地产绿城中国华润置地碧桂园世茂房地产龙湖地产融创中国富力地产远洋地产雅居乐保利置业佳兆业中国海外宏洋首创置业越秀地产合景泰富路劲基建合生创展旭辉集团,101892351052247546040035634031030823417313512512312011811695,28%15%55%45%10%50%5%86%14%15%5%48%13%76%20%23%6%69%17%75%,來源，輝立證券圖 7，2012 年核心
16、覆蓋公司的股價回報率5,China Property Sector Report in 2012绿城中国融创中国合生创展合景泰富世茂房地产越秀地产首创置业富力地产中国海外宏洋保利置业佳兆业集团中国海外建业地产龙湖地产华润置地远洋地产雅居乐地产路劲基建碧桂园恒大地产來源，輝立證券,6,80%79%78%77%73%69%61%57%52%40%32%,122%121%119%110%110%106%,207%,January 25,2013321%273%,China Property Sector Report in 2012Ratings HistoryNA,January 25,2013,
17、Rating,Date,Closing price(HK$),Fair value(HK$),Remarks,NA,-,-,-,-,-,7,We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands.We consider qualitative factors like(but not limited,speculative undertones surrounding the stock,before making our final recommendation,China Prop
18、erty Sector Report in 2012,January 25,2013,Total Return+20%+5%to+20%-5%to+5%-5%to-20%-20%,PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMSRecommendation Rating RemarksBuy 1 20%upside from the current priceAccumulate 2+5%to+20%upside from the current priceNeutral 3 Trade within 5%from the current priceReduce
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