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1、Author:Nancy Greene,Penetration Curve(S-Curve),March 1998,Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.,2,Agenda,ConceptApplicationCase exampleMethodology,Copyright 1998 Bain&Company,Inc.,3,Products can be thought of as following a life-cycle that has several distinct phases:early adoption/trialmass adoptionsatu
2、ration/substitutiondeclineThe product life-cycle generates a series of market penetration rates that tend to follow a specific pattern,called an S-curve(or penetration curve)Given the pattern of penetration curves over time,and given that this relationship holds to some extent in almost every case,p
3、enetration curves can be a powerful tool in predicting the growth of new products,What is a Penetration Curve?(S-Curve),4,Product Life-Cycle,Time,Volume,Products can be thought of as following a life-cycle that has several distinct phases.,Early adoption/trial,Mass adoption,Saturation/substitution,D
4、ecline,Driven by people who always adopt new things early and fuel the products initial growth,The product becomes accepted by the general market;characterized by rapid product growth,The product has either saturated the market,or is already being substituted for by another product that is in an ear
5、lier phase of the product life cycle,The decline of the product,driven by complete substitution for or replacement with another product,5,Characteristics of Penetration Curves,Penetration can occur at the expense of an existing product,or it can drive new markets to growSeveral factors will influenc
6、e the end state,or saturation point,of a product:duration/speed of product life-cyclecompetitive forcesinnovationculture/society,When considering penetration curves,there are a few characteristics to keep in mind:,6,Agenda,ConceptApplicationCase exampleMethodology,7,Applications of Penetration Curve
7、s,Validating/determining market growth for a new or established productShowing precedents for success of a product through existing penetration curvesPredicting the saturation level for a productDetermining market entry strategy or timing,given the predicted penetration of a productDetermining produ
8、ct management or phase-out,given the speed of new products adoption,Penetration curves can be useful in addressing a series of different strategic questions which arise when new products enter a market.,8,Agenda,ConceptApplicationCase exampleMethodology,9,In 1994,the National Institutes of Health(NI
9、H)issued a statement confirming that most ulcers are strongly associated with the presence of a bacteria(H.Pylori).While previously,doctors had been advised to treat ulcer symptoms with anti-secretory drugs,NIH now recommends that ulcer patients with H.Pylori infections also be treated with antibiot
10、ics.The new treatment cures not only ulcer symptoms,but the underlying cause of the disease.In 1997,a new device was granted a patent by the U.S.Patent Office which will test human breath for the presence of H.Pyloria blood test for H.Pylori is already on the marketdoctors may also test for H.Pylori
11、 using tissue samples obtained through endoscopy,a relatively invasive and painful medical procedureOur client is considering buying the patent and believes that the breath test technology holds significant advantages over both blood tests and endoscopyless invasive than endoscopymore accurate than
12、blood tests,Situation:,How large is the market for H.Pylori tests over time?,Key Question:,A Bain case team used penetration curve analysis to examine how quickly medical practices change.,Disguised Case Situation(1 of 2),10,A search of the existing literature revealed that in 1995,only 5%of doctors
13、 were testing patients suspected of having an ulcer for H.Pyloriin 1991,the figure was close to 1%In order to determine how quickly the NIH report would impact doctors behavior,our case team surveyed doctors in the fall of 1997:60%said they were testing their suspected ulcer patients for H.Pylori15%
14、said they treated all suspected ulcer patients with a course of antibiotics-without first testing for H.Pylorithe team agreed that this represented a“ceiling”on testing:15%of doctors would always treat H.Pylori without testing for it,Research:,Historic penetration:1991=1%1995=5%1997=60%Saturation po
15、int=85%,Penetration Curve Data:,Combining secondary research with surveys,the team obtained a few historic penetration points,as well as the projected saturation point.,Disguised Case Situation(2 of 2),11,H.Pylori Testing Market,Saturation point=85%,Penetration curve analysis smoothed the known data
16、 points into an S-curve that showed an aggressive schedule for the adoption of H.Pylori tests.,12,Agenda,ConceptApplicationCase exampleMethodology,13,Gather historic data and set up spreadsheetPick saturation pointthis should be the logical ceiling on a products penetration(i.e.not every home will h
17、ave a computer,even in the most optimistic of scenarios)saturation point=100%in this exampleCalculate penetration ratio(historic percent)/(saturation point-historic percent),1989199019911992,25.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%,Years,Historic Penetration,1989199019911992,25.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%,Years,Historic Penetrat
18、ion,0.3330.4080.5710.740,Penetration Ratio,Methodology(1 of 3),14,1989199019911992,25.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%,Years,Historic Penetration,0.3330.4080.5710.740,Penetration Ratio,7.5957.5967.5977.597,ln(years),(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301),ln(penetration ratio),198919901991199219931994etc.,25.0%29.0%36.3%42.5
19、%,Years,Historic Penetration,0.3330.4080.5710.740,Penetration Ratio,7.5957.5967.5967.5977.5977.598etc.,ln(years),(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301),ln(penetration ratio),0.9661.268etc.,Take the natural log of the years and the penetration ratioRegress the log of years vs.the log of the penetration ratioUs
20、e results to calculate predicted penetration ratiouse formula for a line,and take anti-logantilog of(ln(year)x x-coefficient+b),Methodology(2 of 3),15,Calculate predicted penetration using the predicted penetration ratio and saturation point(predicted penetration ratio x saturation point)/(1+predict
21、ed penetration ratio),198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000,25.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%,Years,Historic Penetration,0.3330.4080.5710.740,7.5957.5967.5967.5977.5977.5987.5987.5997.5997.6007.6007.601,ln(years),(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301),ln(penetration ratio),Predicted Penetration Ratio,0.9661.2681.6642.1822.8633.7554.9246.457,Penetration Ratio,49.1%55.9%62.5%68.6%74.1%79.0%83.1%86.6%,Predicted Penetration,Methodology(3 of 3),16,青苹果出品 必属精品http:/,囊括2007-2010几百G地产策划资料/企业管理人力资源全套/品牌策划资料/行业分析报告/PPT模板等。,
