《ASIACHEMICALS：CAUTIOUSONAROMATICSONHIGHERCAPEX;BUYPTTGCSELLNANYA1122.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《ASIACHEMICALS：CAUTIOUSONAROMATICSONHIGHERCAPEX;BUYPTTGCSELLNANYA1122.ppt（23页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、Target,7,000,November 16,2012Asia:ChemicalsEquity ResearchCautious on aromatics on higher capex;Buy PTTGC,Sell NanyaBearish on Para-xylene(P-X)given the new capex cycle,We turn cautious on aromatics,primarily P-X,and expect a softening in the,RATING AND TARGET PRICES SUMMARY13-Nov-12 Rating,price st
2、rength seen over the last few years as we enter the new industry,Asia Chemicals,price,Price(New),capex cycle in 2013-2015.This is underpinned by our expectation of the P-X industry set to see historically high levels of capacity additions during2013-2015(4mn/8mn/2mn ton each in 13/14/15E),driven mos
3、tly by theKorean refiners(accounting for one third of the total capex according toour estimates).As a result,we expect margins to decline,althoughongoing downstream PTA additions are likely to provide some support.,PTT Global ChemicalTaiwan Synthetic Rubber CorporationLG ChemKumho Petro Chemical Co.
4、Formosa Petrochemical Corp.Formosa Chemicals&FibreFormosa PlasticsPetronas Chemicals Group BerhadHanwha ChemicalNan Ya PlasticsMedian,60.7552.40302,000106,00080.1061.5072.306.4017,35049.10,BuyBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralSellSell*,79.0069.00350,000120,00075.0063.0070.005.4017,00038.0
5、0,*on Conviction list.All TPs are on a 12-month basis.Source:Datastream,Company data,Goldman Sachs,Near term cautious on ethylene chain;gradual pick-up in 2013EWe maintain our cautious view on the ethylene chain.However,despite,Research estimates.TURNING CAUTIOUS ON P-X ON CAPEX CYCLE,weak near term
6、 momentum with macro uncertainties continuing to impact,(000ton/year)8,000,Korea,China,India,MiddleEast,Others,end demand,we expect some improvement in the macro backdrop in 2013,South KorealeadsthemajorPXcapexprojectsduring2013E15E;,which could improve the industry outlook,although we see more visi
7、blerecovery in 2H.Nevertheless,we maintain our constructive outlook in the,6,0005,000,1,0461,100,theincrementaltotalcapacityover5milliontons,nearlydoublingthenationscurrentcapacity,medium to long term as we forecast moderate margin improvement on theback of limited supply additions until 2016(see ou
8、r previous research:,4,0003,000,2201,800,1,450,Shale wave and implications for Asian petrochemicals,July 11,2012).,2,000,244750,90700900,1,400,3,350,400800,1,000,Maintain long term constructive view on rubber(speciallybutadiene);expect faster recovery given demand improvement,9752011,950602012E,8302
9、013E,2014E,1,0002015E,1,3502016E,While the rubber chain continues to suffer from near term weakness due tothe macro backdrop,we believe it has the potential to post strongerearnings recovery upon a pick up in end demand for tires.Also,we expectAsian rubber makers to start making S-SBR capacity addit
10、ions from 2013,which could impact volume and margin improvement in the long term.Hence,we remain constructive on butadiene in the long term.Buy PTTGC,TSRC;Sell Hanwha and Nanya Plastics(on CL)We maintain our Buy rating on PTTGC and TSRC on attractive valuationsand maintain our Sell ratings on Hanwha
11、 Chemical and Nanya Plastics(onCL)on their unfavorable product mixes.We lower 12 month target pricesfor our chemicals coverage by 7%on average and revise earnings by-6%/-13%/+1%on average for 12E/13E/14E on the back of revisions in our keychemical margin assumptions.,Source:Company data,PCI,Factiva,
12、Goldman SachsResearch estimatesRELATED RESEARCHAsia Pacific:Energy:Oil-Refining:Robust refining into2015E;supply side surprises likely to continue Nov 16,2012Asia Chemicals:The next decade(part 1):Shale wave andimplications for Asian petrochemicals July 11,2012KEY RISKSPositive/negative surprises on
13、 capacity additions,higherthan expected global demand.,Rosa Kim+82(2)3788-1722 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Seoul BranchTommy Wong+886(2)2730-4194 Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Taipei BranchPatrick Tiah,CFA+65-6889-2468 Goldman Sachs(Singapore)PteNilesh Banerjee+91(22)6616-9045 Goldman Sachs India SPLThe G
14、oldman Sachs Group,Inc.,Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investorsshould consider this report as only a single
15、factor in makingtheir investment decision.For Reg AC certification and otherimportant disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analystswith FINRA in the U.S.Global Investment Research,3,6,7,9,11,14,19,2,November 16,
16、2012Table of contentsExecutive summary:Expect gradual pick up in chemicals;aromatics to soften on new capex cycleWeak margins and end demand,we see inflection in 2H13Ethylene:Near term still challenging,gradual improvement likelyPolyester:Weak P-X outlook on industry capex cycleRubber:Longer term po
17、sitives remain,but near term demand weakKey risks to our viewImplications for our chemical coverageAppendix:Chemical product flow chartDisclosure Appendix,Asia:Chemicals1320,The prices in the body of this report are as of the market close of November 13,2012,unless mentioned otherwise.Exhibit 1:Asia
18、 regional chemical peer valuation comparison,Market pirce as of Nov 13,2012,Potential,Stock,Target,Market cap,Upside/,Pricing,P/E(X),EV/EBITDA(X),P/B(X),ROE,Company,Ticker,Rating,Price,(US$mn),Downside currency 2012E 2013E 2014E,2012E 2013E 2014E,2012E 2013E 2014E,2012E 2013E,2014E,KoreaChemicals,LG
19、 ChemKumho PetrochemicalCheil Ind.Hanwha Chemical,051910.KS011780.KS001300.KS009830.KS,NeutralNeutralNeutralSell,350,000120,000100,00017,000,19,0642,9674,1722,236,16%13%15%-2%,KRWKRWKRWKRW,12.217.717.718.8,10.89.812.69.8,9.97.710.97.1,7.211.59.313.4,6.36.88.010.3,5.95.46.98.9,1.82.11.30.6,1.61.81.20
20、.6,1.41.51.10.5,16%13%8%3%,16%20%10%6%,15%22%11%8%,Average,16.6,10.7,8.9,10.3,7.8,6.8,1.5,1.3,1.1,10%,13%,14%,Taiwan,Taiwan Synthetic Rubber CorporationFormosa Chemicals&FibreFormosa PlasticsFormosa Petrochemical Corp.Nan Ya Plastics,2103.TW1326.TW1301.TW6505.TW1303.TW,BuyNeutralNeutralNeutralSell*,
21、69.0063.0070.0075.0038.00,1,42012,02715,25426,30113,289,32%2%-3%-6%-23%,TWDTWDTWDTWDTWD,15.544.427.4NM93.6,9.015.117.833.023.6,7.813.517.327.723.1,10.048.129.333.830.5,6.122.123.219.620.7,5.420.425.917.121.1,2.31.41.83.41.5,2.11.41.83.31.4,1.91.41.83.31.4,15%3%7%3%2%,24%9%10%10%6%,26%10%10%12%6%,Ave
22、rage,45.2,19.7,17.9,30.3,18.3,18.0,2.1,2.0,1.9,6%,12%,13%,ASEAN,PTT Global ChemicalPetronas Chemicals Group Berhad,PTTGC.BKPCGB.KL,BuyNeutral,79.005.40,8,93515,278,30%-16%,THBMYR,9.113.8,8.513.2,7.214.3,7.37.3,6.56.7,5.27.0,1.32.3,1.22.1,1.12.0,15%18%,14%19%,16%9%,Average,11.4,10.9,10.7,7.3,6.6,6.1,
23、1.8,1.7,1.5,16%,17%,12%,India,Reliance Industries,RELI.BO,Buy,1,010,46,989,28%,INR,10.4,9.2,9.8,7.3,6.5,6.7,1.3,1.2,1.1,13%,13%,11%,Average,10.4,9.2,9.8,7.3,6.5,6.7,1.3,1.2,1.1,13%,13%,11%,Japan,ZeonMitsui ChemicalsUbe IndustriesAsahi KaseiMitsubishi Chemical HoldingsSumitomo ChemicalShowa DenkoToso
24、hJSRShin-Etsu ChemicalHitachi ChemicalToray Industries,4205.T4183.T4208.T3407.T4188.T4005.T4004.T4042.T4185.T4063.T4217.T3402.T,Buy*BuyBuyBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralSell,8002302305703802551502001,5505,0001,370490,1,7051,9552,2037,7995,4074,2822,0731,1534,29523,7912,7489,150,
25、37%48%32%29%21%24%36%31%10%12%31%10%,JPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPY,9.99.912.634.838.116.514.212.417.910.813.4,9.216.79.811.527.911.09.410.812.117.29.713.5,7.29.08.610.115.57.78.48.111.416.49.212.2,4.38.15.64.97.48.37.07.25.36.63.77.2,4.07.45.34.97.27.76.46.84.96.33.37.0,3.36.44.94.46.57.15.96
26、.14.56.03.16.5,1.00.40.80.90.60.70.60.51.21.30.71.1,0.90.40.80.80.60.70.60.51.11.20.71.1,0.80.40.70.80.60.60.60.51.01.20.71.0,10%0%9%7%2%2%4%4%10%7%7%9%,10%3%8%7%2%6%7%5%9%7%7%8%,12%5%9%8%4%9%7%6%9%7%8%8%,Average,17.3,13.2,10.3,6.3,5.9,5.4,0.8,0.8,0.7,6%,7%,8%,*denotes stock is on our regional Convi
27、ction List.All target prices mentioned above are on a 12-m basis.Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimatesGoldman Sachs Global Investment Research,3,November 16,2012,Asia:Chemicals,Executive summary:Expect gradual pick up in chemicals;aromatics to soften on new capex cycleWe forecast a gr
28、adual pick up in overall petchem(olefins)driven by demand recoveryin 2013Overall,we expect broad olefin products to post year on year growth in 2013given its low base as well as expectations of a demand improvement.We alsogenerally witness some inventory buildup for petrochemical products in the run
29、 upto the Chinese Lunar New Year which could be mildly positive for the sector.4Q12 earnings momentum remains muted:We note a lack of near termearnings catalysts for the petrochemical sector,especially olefin products such asethylene chains.We note that meaningful recovery may be skewed to 2H13.Peck
30、ing Order of product chain based on our preference in the medium to longterm:Butadiene P-X,Ethylene PVC,PTA.Maintain medium term constructive outlook on the ethylene chain givenlimited capacity additions until 2016.However,we anticipate capacity additioninitiatives from the US light feedstock based
31、crackers post 2016.We turn bearish on aromatics due to the start of the new capex cycleWe turn cautious on P-X from our previously positive view,due to the start of thenew capex cycle from 2H13.We expect to see historically high levels(comparedwith the last 5 years)of planned capacity additions for
32、P-X during 2013E-15E(4mn/8mn/2mn tons each for 13E/14E/15E),outstripping the expected PTAadditions particularly in 2014E,by nearly 3mn tons.We expect PTA net additionsto be 12mn/5mn tons for 13E/14E.Although there could be some support for P-Xmargins in 1H13 on the back of still aggressive capacity
33、additions from the PTAmakers,we see downside risks to the currently strong P-X margins given thebulky capacity additions.We also tone down on MEG from our previously constructive stance given theplanned capex additions(including early initiatives in coal based feedstock plantssuch as DMO and MTO pro
34、ject line-ups).We are also bearish on downstreamPTA on oversupply and the weak demand situation,which we expect to continueat least till 2014-15.We are positive on rubber chain(butadiene,synthetic rubber)in the long termWe are positive on rubber chain in the long term on the back of our constructive
35、outlook on tire demand in the longer run.While butadiene remains volatile andcontinues to be impacted by near term weakness,we believe that the structuraltightness from rising light feedstock usage in the US will sustain medium to longterm upward trend for butadiene prices.Revising estimates/target
36、prices:Lower TPs by 7%on averageWe lower 12-month target prices for our coverage by 7%on average and revise earningsby-6%/-13%/+1%on average for 12E/13E/14E on the back of revisions in key chemicalmargins(Exhibit 5)in order to reflect new demand supply balance for relevant chains aswell as YTD perfo
37、rmance.We also introduce 2015E EPS for LG Chem(W30,962),HanwhaChemical(W2650),Kumho Petrochemical(W17,564),TSRC(NT$6.95),FormosaPetrochemical(NT$3.11),Formosa Plastics(NT$4.31),Formosa Chemicals&Fibre(NT$4.63),and Nan Ya Plastics(NT$2.35).Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research,4,November 16,2012Ex
38、hibit 2:Summary of our changes,Asia:Chemicals,13-Nov-12,Rating,Target,Potential,%change,Target Price,Ticker,price,Price(New),upside%,in TP,Methodology,Asia Chemicals,PTT Global ChemicalTaiwan Synthetic Rubber CorporationLG ChemKumho Petro Chemical Co.Formosa Petrochemical Corp.Formosa Chemicals&Fibr
39、eFormosa PlasticsPetronas Chemicals Group BerhadHanwha ChemicalNan Ya Plastics,PTTGC.BK2103.TW051910.KS011780.KS6505.TW1326.TW1301.TWPCGB.KL009830.KS1303.TW,60.7552.40302,000106,00080.1061.5072.306.4017,35049.10,BuyBuyNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralNeutralSellSell*,79.0069.00350,000120,00075.006
40、3.0070.005.4017,00038.00,30%32%16%13%-6%2%-3%-16%-2%-23%,-1%-8%-3%-12%-4%-13%-3%-4%-11%-12%,P/B vs ROESOTPSOTPSOTPP/B vs ROEP/B vs ROEP/B vs ROEP/B vs ROESOTPP/B vs ROE,Median*denotes stock is on our regional Conviction List.All target prices mentioned above are on a 12-m basis.Source:Company data,G
41、oldman Sachs Research estimatesExhibit 3:Earnings changes for our chemical coverage,4%,-7%,Net income(New),Net income(Previous),Estimate changes,Companies(reporting curr.mn),Ticker,2012E,2013E,2014E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2012E,2013E,2014E,Asia Chemicals,PTT Global ChemicalTaiwan Synthetic Rubber Corpora
42、tionLG ChemKumho Petro Chemical Co.Formosa Petrochemical Corp.Formosa Chemicals&FibreFormosa PlasticsPetronas Chemicals Group BerhadHanwha ChemicalNan Ya Plastics,PTTGC.BK2103.TW051910.KS011780.KS6505.TW1326.TW1301.TWPCGB.KL009830.KS1303.TW,30,1402,6591,637,784182,8526,0977,87816,1583,726129,6874,12
43、1,32,3084,5621,853,975328,52423,11523,13424,9283,875248,81516,362,37,9665,2642,025,845420,03227,54525,83525,5703,595342,01716,702,30,1182,5901,608,655231,2787,4058,66216,4833,807120,1255,452,33,8555,3341,879,163413,99427,67729,44828,2214,294262,05120,391,25,4955,7192,183,154517,35330,50434,55430,441
44、2,219303,93022,374,0%3%2%-21%-18%-9%-2%-2%8%-24%,-5%-14%-1%-21%-16%-21%-12%-10%-5%-20%,49%-8%-7%-19%-10%-25%-16%62%13%-25%,Average,-6%,-13%,1%,Source:Company data,Goldman Sachs Research estimatesExhibit 4:GSE vs.Bloomberg consensus(net income),Net income(New),Net income(Consensus),Estimate differenc
45、e,Companies(reporting curr.mn),Ticker,2012E,2013E,2014E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2012E,2013E,2014E,Asia Chemicals,PTT Global ChemicalTaiwan Synthetic Rubber CorporationLG ChemKumho Petro Chemical Co.Formosa Petrochemical Corp.Formosa Chemicals&FibreFormosa PlasticsPetronas Chemicals Group BerhadHanwha Chem
46、icalNan Ya Plastics,PTTGC.BK2103.TW051910.KS011780.KS6505.TW1326.TW1301.TWPCGB.KL009830.KS1303.TW,30,1402,6591,637,784182,8526,0977,87816,1583,726129,6874,121,32,3084,5621,853,975328,52423,11523,13424,9283,875248,81516,362,37,9665,2642,025,845420,03227,54525,83525,5703,595342,01716,702,29,2053,0981,
47、618,232224,1999,32710,43719,6463,762129,2137,977,32,5684,3201,983,901422,26529,12121,50928,2204,042260,38618,090,33,7565,1832,242,102514,31132,42126,18731,4673,997322,02923,601,3%-14%1%-18%-35%-25%-18%-1%0%-48%,-1%6%-7%-22%-21%8%-12%-4%-4%-10%,12%2%-10%-18%-15%-1%-19%-10%6%-29%,Average,-15%,-7%,-8%,
48、Source:Company data,Bloomberg,Goldman Sachs Research estimatesGoldman Sachs Global Investment Research,P/B(2013E),EV/GCI(2013E),ChemicalCo.,1.5x,NanYaPlastics,&Fibre,CheilIndustries,ShinEtsuChemical,1.0 x,MitsubishiChemical,Holdings ShowaDenko,0.5x,Tosoh,MitsuiChemicals,MitsubishiChemical,AsahiKasei
49、,LGChem,1.0 x,0.5x,RelianceIndustries,5,November 16,2012Exhibit 5:We turn cautious on aromatics,particularly P-XSummary changes for key petrochemical product margin forecasts,Asia:Chemicals,Annual average margins,GS Forecast,Revised(%),(US$/tonne),2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E
50、,2015E,2012E,2013E,2014E,Ethylene chain,NEW,Ethylene-naphthaHDPE-naphthaLLDPE-naphthaLDPE-naphtha,472572605675,617691690696,521670685792,361661725829,337589629654,384538610794,260460425662,320440410420,375480460510,400505510550,450540545600,14%-8%-4%-7%,14%-16%-8%-4%,10%-18%-4%-10%,Propylene chain,P
