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1、,Investment Focus,January 17,2013,Transportation,RESEARCH,Xin YANG,CFASFC CE Ref:APYXiaofeng SHENZhong REN,Dizhong NIEYu X,1H Airlines,4Q Shipping,Watch for Railway Reform2013 Transportation Strategy,Investment highlightsBased on the comparison between transportation framework of China and US,airlin
2、es and railway have the biggest potential interms of transportation volume outlook.As for the profitability of infrastructure,compared with international experience,hubairports and railway could make profit.Therefore we rank the 2013 H-share transportation subsectors as follows:airlines,shipping,rai
3、lways,ports,airports,and toll road based on a comprehensive study of their 2013 trends(separate strategyreports for airlines 3)Our macro team forecast better 2H global economy.Railway:Reform may bring trading opportunities:1)Railway reform may begin after new government take over in Mar.2)We expect
4、the separation of government body with enterprise entity,but no much big progress in 2013.Ports:Given that container throughput growth in 2013 will be higher than 2012,and CIMC will also do better this year,earnings recovery is sure thing.Since COSCO Pacific is trading at fair value and limited down
5、side,anyhigh-than-expected export data could drive share price.Airports:Generally we like hub airports because the international and transfer demand will boost both the ASP ofaviation revenue and growth of non-aviation revenue.However,BCIAs upside is constrained by 2nd airport overhang,T3D takeover,
6、and demanding valuation.Toll Roads:Now Chinas road density is almost comparable to U.S.level,with low utilization.Railway diversionmakes the traffic growth outlook even worse.Government lacks the incentive to maintain toll level if they want tolower the logistics costs in China.RisksInfrastructure s
7、tocks will outperform high-beta subsectors if economic growth misses expectations.Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report,CICC Research:January 17,2013,Contents,Outlook for transportation framework-International comparison.4Airlines and railways will enjoy great ups
8、ide in next 10 years based on comparison with the US.4Infrastructure sector in terms of earnings sustainability:airports,railways,ports and roads.82013 transportation sector strategies.11Airlines:improving supply-demand conditions and external factors to boost 2013 earnings.11Marine transportation:4
9、Q13 rally expected on sector recovery in 2014.13Railway:improving fundamentals still insufficient to trigger a great leap.16Ports:likely to underperform despite stabilizing throughput growth.18Airports:favor hub airports,international charge alignments warrant expectation.19Roads:Likely to perform b
10、etter than in 2012,but large rallies unlikely.20,Figures,Figure 1:Ratings and earnings information of key companies.3Figure 2:H-share transportation sectors performance in 2012.3Figure 3:Chinas population distribution.4Figure 4:US population distribution.4Figure 5:Chinas GDP distribution.4Figure 6:U
11、S GDP distribution.4Figure 7:Percentage of overall passenger turnover represented by each transportation mode in China.5Figure 8:Percentage of overall passenger turnover represented by each transportation mode in the US.5Figure 9:Passenger transportation distance of each transportation mode in China
12、 and the US.5Figure 10:US/China population and air travel turnover.6Figure 11:Number of airports in China and the US.6Figure 12:Air travel turnover and per capita air-travel frequency in the US.6Figure 13:Chinas current ratio of airfare to per-capita GDP is slightly below that of the US in 1954.6Fig
13、ure 14:Percentage of cargo turnover represented by each transportation mode in China.7Figure 15:Percentage of cargo turnover represented by each transportation mode in the US.7Figure 16:Cargo transportation distances of each transportation mode in China and the US.7Figure 17:Fuel consumption,speed a
14、nd cost of each transportation mode.7Figure 18:Chinas railway density is less than half that of the US but the two countries have similar road densities.8Figure 19:Railway and road operating mileage growth rates.8Figure 20:All European/US hub airports are profitable.9Figure 21:Comparison of railway
15、profitability.9Figure 22:Comparison of railway transportation density.9Figure 23:Price hike potential for each transportation infrastructure sub-sector in China.10Figure 24:The background of price hikes for each transportation infrastructure sector.10Figure 25:Big Three Airlines 1Q3Q profit decline
16、mainly driven by drop in FX gains.12Figure 26:Airlines supply and demand analysis.13Figure 27:Demand and supply forecast for dry bulk shipping sector.14Figure 28:Demand and supply forecast for oil tanker shipping sector.15Figure 29:Demand and supply forecast for container shipping sector.15Figure 30
17、:Railway reform path.17Figure 31:Airports revenue mix provide defensiveness.19Figure 32:Valuations of comparable airlines.21Figure 33:Valuations of comparable railway companies.21Figure 34:Valuations of comparable airports.22Figure 35:Valuations of comparable marine transportation companies.22Figure
18、 36:Valuations of comparable ports.23Figure 37:Valuations of comparable toll road companies.23,Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report,2,Nov-12,May-12,May-12,Feb-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Mar-12,Nov-12,Jan-12,Jan-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Jun-12,Jul-12,Jul-12,Jul-12,Oct-12,Oct-12,Apr
19、-12,Apr-12,Dec-12,Dec-12,Dec-12,Aug-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Sep-12,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,-,CICC Research:January 17,2013Figure 1:Ratings and earnings information of key companies,Price(HKD),EPS,PE,PB,ROE,Yield(%),Rating(H/A),Ticker,2013-1-11,ReportingCurrency,11A,12E,13E,11A,12E,13E,11A,12E,13E,11A,12E,13E,11A,12E
20、,13E,Airline companies,Air China,BUY/BUY,753.HK,5.61,RMB,0.61,0.32,0.44,7.5,14.4,10.5,1.3,1.2,1.1,17.1,8.5,10.7,2.7,1.1,1.5,Railway companies,YoY,-48%,38%,Guangshen Railway,HOLD/BUY,525.HK,2.67,RMB,0.25,0.19,0.21,8.6,11.6,10.3,0.6,0.6,0.6,7.1,5.1,5.6,4.6,3.4,3.8,YoY,-26%,13%,Daqin Railway,BUY,601006
21、.SH,6.46,RMB,0.79,0.76,0.80,6.7,7.0,6.6,1.3,1.0,0.9,18.6,14.2,14.0,7.4,7.1,7.6,Airport companies,YoY,-4%,6%,BCIA,ACCUMULATE,694.HK,2.00,HKD,0.32,0.35,0.47,6.3,5.6,4.3,0.6,0.6,0.5,7.7,8.1,9.6,3.9,4.3,5.4,YoY,11%,31%,SHIA,BUY,600009.SH,11.96,RMB,0.78,0.82,1.05,12.6,12.0,9.3,1.2,1.2,1.1,9.7,9.8,11.6,1.
22、0,6.1,3.8,YoYShipping companies,5%,29%,CSD,HOLD/ACCU.,1138.HK,4.53,RMB,0.31,-0.18,-0.04,12.1,(20.9)(105.9),0.5,0.5,0.5,4.4,(2.6),(0.5),0.9,YoY,-158%,-80%,CCH,HOLD/ACCU.,1919.HK,4.30,RMB,-1.02,-0.75,0.03,(3.4),(4.7),125.1,1.0,1.3,1.3,(30.1)(28.6),1.1,YoY,-26%,-104%,CSCL,HOLD/BUY,2866.HK,2.42,RMB,-0.2
23、3,0.02,0.10,(8.5)127.3,20.5,0.9,0.9,0.8,(10.5),0.7,4.1,YoY,-107%,521%,SITC,BUY,1308.HK,2.66,USD,0.04,0.03,0.04,9.6,9.9,8.4,1.4,1.3,1.2,14.4,12.8,13.8,4.5,4.3,5.1,Port companies,YoY,-4%,18%,COSCO Pacific,HOLD,1199.HK,21.00,USD,0.14,0.12,0.13,18.9,22.5,20.5,2.0,1.9,1.8,10.7,8.5,8.8,2.3,2.2,2.5,YoY,-16
24、%,10%,China Merchants,SELL,144.HK,2.50,HKD,1.64,1.43,1.64,1.5,1.7,1.5,0.1,0.1,0.1,9.4,7.7,8.3,44.3,33.4,37.8,YoYToll road companies,-13%,14%,Shenzhen Expressway,ACCU./HOLD,548.HK,3.26,RMB,0.40,0.31,0.31,6.7,8.5,8.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,9.5,7.1,6.8,6.0,4.7,4.7,YoY,-22%,-1%,Jiangsu Expressway,ACCU./BUY,177.HK,
25、5.10,RMB,0.48,0.48,0.49,8.7,8.7,8.5,1.2,1.1,1.1,13.4,12.9,12.8,8.6,8.5,8.8,YoY,-1%,3%,Source:Bloomberg,CICC ResearchFigure 2:H-share transportation sectors performance in 2012,HSCEI Index,Shipping,Airline,Airport,Ports,Railway,Toll road,1501301109070Source:Bloomberg,CICC ResearchPlease read carefull
26、y the important disclosures at the end of this report3,山东,CICC Research:January 17,2013Outlook for transportation framework-International comparisonWe reach the following conclusions based on our analysis of the outlooks for each transportation sector:1)airlines andrailways will occupy a greater pro
27、portion of Chinas transportation,so have bright prospects;2)as for infrastructure,i.e.airports,railway,ports,toll roads,considering the potential for rate hikes and based on a comparison with overseastransportation infrastructure,we expect hub airports to enjoy the strongest earnings sustainability
28、in Chinas transportationinfrastructure,followed by railways,ports,and roads.Airlines and railways will enjoy great upside in next 10 years based on comparison with the USWe see the US transportation industry landscape as the most comparable with Chinas as European countries aregeographically dispers
29、ed and Japans land is narrow.China and US are both continental economic blocs and mainly dependon their own resources:USs resources are concentrated in its central region and most of its population is distributed on theeast and west coasts;Chinas resources are mainly produced in its central/western
30、parts while its eastern region is mostpopulated and produce most of its GDP.,Figure 3:Chinas population distribution黑龙江吉林,Figure 4:US population distribution,新疆,内蒙古,辽宁北京市天津市,宁夏,山西 河北,Legend,青海,甘肃,陕西,河南,江苏,More than 3%of total,西藏,四川,重庆,湖北湖南,安徽江西,上海市浙江,贵州,福建,台湾,云南,广西,广东,香港海南,Source:CEIC,CICC ResearchF
31、igure 5:Chinas GDP distribution,黑龙江吉林,Source:CEIC,CICC ResearchFigure 6:US GDP distribution,新疆,内蒙古,辽宁北京市天津市,宁夏,山西 河北山东,Legend,青海,甘肃,陕西,河南,江苏,More than 3%of total GDP,西藏,四川,重庆,湖北湖南,安徽江西,上海市浙江,贵州,福建,台湾,云南,广西,广东,香港海南,Source:,CEIC,CICC Research,Source:,CEIC,CICC Research,Please read carefully the import
32、ant disclosures at the end of this report4,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,1960,1970,1980,1990,1992,1994,1996,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,km,Air,CICC Research:January 17,2013Airlines have a bright prospects among passenger businessMuch fewe
33、r Chinese than Americans choosing airlines as the way of traveling:Chinas airlines sector has seen highgrowth in the past 20 years,with CAGR of 14%.However,the percentage of overall passenger turnover it presents now isonly 15%,much lower than the 27%in the US.,Figure 7:Percentage of overall passeng
34、er turnoverrepresented by each transportation mode in ChinaChina Passenger-Miles,Figure 8:Percentage of overall passenger turnoverrepresented by each transportation mode in the USU.S.Passenger-Miles,Railway,Road water transportation,Rail Highway Air Transit,100%80%60%40%20%,15%54%,100%80%60%40%20%,3
35、%27%70%,31%,0%Source:CEIC,CICC Research,0%Source:www.bts.gov,CICC Research,Figure 9:Passenger transportation distance of each transportation mode in China and the US,1,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200-,US average length of haul,China average length of haul,Railway,Toll road,Air line,Source:CEIC,w
36、ww.bts.gov,CICC ResearchChinas airline industry has great upside both in absolute number and growth rate:At present,Chinas population ismore than four times that of the US,whereas Chinas airline passenger turnover is only half the USs.Currently there are 180airports in China,far fewer than the 767 i
37、n the US.Chinas current per-capita frequency of air-travel is at about the same level as the USs in 1954,and GDP per capital is also atsimilar level.US airlines sector saw a CAGR of 14%in the 20 years after 1950.We believe the affordability of Chinesepeople for air ticket now is also quite similar w
38、ith US in 1954,and we will also see high growth in several decades.Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report5,Mn,China,2011,CICC Research:January 17,2013,Figure 10:US/China population and air travel turnover,Figure 11:Number of airports in China and the US,China(2011)
39、,US(2010),China/US,#of Airports,Population(mn),1,347,312,432%,900800,767,700,Passenger carried(mn),292,721,40%,600500,Passenger turnover,400,(mn passenger-miles),4,508,12,843,35%,300200,167,1000,China,USA,Source:CEIC,Wind,ATA,CICC ResearchFigure 12:Air travel turnover and per capita air-travelfreque
40、ncy in the US,Source:Civil Aviation Yearbook,CICC ResearchFigure 13:Chinas current ratio of airfare to per-capitaGDP is slightly below that of the US in 1954,160 MN RPM140,RPK(LHS),Flights per capita(RHS),0.90.8,0.20,Ticket/Per capita GDP,12010080604020-,China air travel airpenetration ratiopenetrat
41、ion ratio inequal to that of2011 equals to USthe US in 1954s in 1954.,US:CAGR 14%,0.70.60.50.40.30.20.1-,0.180.160.140.120.100.080.060.040.02-,1954,1957,1960,1963,1966,1969,US(1954),China(2011),Source:CEIC CICC Research,Source:Source:CEIC,Wind,ATA,company data,CICC Research,Railways will occupy a gr
42、eater proportion of cargo transportation,squeezing the shares of roads andwater transportLarge room ahead for railway cargo transportation.Due to lack of construction in the past,railway proportion in cargotransportation decreased from 40%prior to 1989 to a mere 28%now.In contrast,this number in US
43、has steadily increased to37%along with railway container business development.Chinas water transport now represents 24%of the cargo turnover,while this number is 18%in US.On the other hand,the distances of railway and water transportation are both 1,4001,500km in the US but only 700800kmin China.Con
44、sidering the similar size of the two countries,Chinas railway transportation distance should have huge upsidepotential,along with the development of western and central parts in China,which is also the focus of the new government.Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this rep
45、ort6,1997,1997,1998,1998,1999,1999,2000,2000,2001,2001,2002,2002,2003,2003,2004,2004,2005,2005,2006,2006,2007,2007,2008,2008,2009,2009,2010,2010,2011,2011,1990,1990,1991,1991,1992,1992,1993,1993,1994,1994,1995,1995,1996,1996,1997,1997,1998,1998,1999,1999,2000,2000,2001,2001,2002,2002,1995,1995,1996,
46、1996,km,2003,2003,Ton-Miles ofof freight,80%,24%,100%,90%,80%,Domestic water transportation,18%,60%,40%,48%,70%,60%,50%,40%,30%,20%,10%,0%,45%,37%,CICC Research:January 17,2013,Figure 14:Percentage of cargo turnover representedby each transportation mode in China,Figure 15:Percentage of cargo turnov
47、er representedby each transportation mode in the US,China Ton-Miles of FreightChina tonne-miles of freightRailway Road water transportation AirRailway Road water transportation Air,Class I rail,U.S.tonne-miles FreightAir carrier,domestic,100%100%80%60%40%20%0%,24%48%28%,100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%1
48、0%0%,Intercity truck,Domestic water transportation18%45%37%,Source:CEIC CICC Research,Source:www.bts.gov,CICC Research,Figure 16:Cargo transportation distances of each transportation mode in China and the US,2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200-,US average length of haul,China average length o
49、f haul,Source:,RailwayCEIC,www.bts.gov,CICC Research,Toll road,Inland river,Air line,Railway is most fuel-efficient,high-speed and cost-effective method.First,the fuel consumption is 25kg for railway per10,000ton-km,125kg for roads,and 2,785kg for air.A freight train can on average run at 80100km/h,
50、slightly above the7080km/h of road transportation and much higher than the 1040km/h of water transport.The freight for railway is onlyRmb0.090.12/ton-km,this number is Rmb0.301.00/ton-km for roads,Rmb2.00/ton-km for airlines,andRmb0.030.05/ton-km for water transport.Therefore,from a comprehensive po
